SoonerLou
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While Murray is right that the Cardinals were much better offensively in the first half of the season, I voiced my concern that their success was far too dependent on Murray’s creativity out of structure. His improvised production was masking underlying issues that would be exposed if defenses were able to contain him.
Well, over the last few weeks, defenses have figured out how to contain him. Over the last three games — all losses — Murray has run for just 61 yards. Heading into that losing streak, he was averaging 67.1 yards per game. The underlying issues have been exposed, and it’s time for Kliff Kingsbury to make some adjustments in order to take some pressure off his diminutive signal-caller.
It doesn’t take too much digging to figure out what those issues are. I found two big ones that have quietly been festering all season.
1. Too many screen passes to receivers
The biggest issue I found has been the early-down play calling. The Cardinals pass the ball enough, but too many of their passes aren’t going down the field. Look at their pass-run splits — on the surface, they look acceptable. They rank 16th in early-down pass rate, per RBSDM.com, and while they do run a bit more on first down than the analytics nerds would like, it’s not to a concerning point…
via RBSDM.com
But in the age of the run-pass option (RPO), run-pass splits can be deceiving. And no team runs more RPOs than the Cardinals. So a decent chunk of the “pass” calls Kingsbury is making on first down are really just extended handoffs. And they’ve been just as efficient as a typical run play. So, not very efficient at all.
At least for the Cardinals, that is.
Murray has lost 13.3 expected points on RPO plays that result in a throw, per Sports Info Solutions. That number leads the league and it’s not even close. Daniel Jones is next up on the list at 3.7 expected points lost. The gap between Jones and Murray is larger than the gap between Jones and Matthew Stafford, who ranks 5th in expected points added.
Data via Sports Info Solutions
So, why are the Cardinals so bad at RPOs? It has a lot to do with the type of RPOs they’re calling. While a team like the Chiefs prefers to attach a downfield route (usually a slant) to their run concepts…
Those shorter throws are just inherently inefficient and Kingsbury has Murray making a lot of them. Of the 31 RPO throws Murray has attempted this season, only nine have traveled past the line of scrimmage. Those seven plays may have been the only successful ones of the bunch. The passes behind the line of scrimmage have a success rate of approximately -4256.4%. OK, so that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but those plays haven’t been very productive…
While the passes haven’t been very successful, the threat of them has optimized the run game. Arizona is once again sporting a top-five run game despite its mediocre offensive line and a star-less group of running backs. So those inefficient throws are serving some purprose. I’m, by no means, advocating for fewer RPOs; I just believe those RPOs should focus on pushing the ball a little further downfield.
Now, Murray’s height could be a factor in how Kingsbury is calling these plays. His sightlines are not obstructed on those perimeter throws; but, in theory, it could be harder for him to find throwing lanes on a quick slant thrown over the defensive line. It makes sense in theory, but the Cardinals have thrown a couple of RPO slants and they’ve mostly resulted in good gains.
More of that, please!
2. The third-down passing game stinks
Because the Cardinals had been doing a good job of avoiding third downs over the first half of the season, the third-down passing game wasn’t seen as a big issue, but it really hasn’t looked good all season. Murray currently ranks 28th in EPA per play on third down and 26th in success rate.
via RBSDM.com
While Murray’s lack of comfort in the pocket has contributed to some of the problems, I’d put most of the blame on Kingsbury’s uninspired play-calling. I was one of the many analysts praising his creativity when the Cardinals hired him, but most of that creativity is limited to the run game. His passing scheme, though, leaves a lot to be desired, which isn’t a total surprise for a coach with Air Raid roots. The success of that system at the college level has not contingent on a voluminous playbook. It’s actually the opposite: The idea behind the Air Raid is that less volume leads to more precision.
I don’t have any fancy stats to back this up, but from watching the Cardinals over the last two years, it feels like Kingsbury calls plays as if his only goal is to gain just enough yards for a first down. Like every series of downs is its own drive and the first down marker is the goal line.
That really becomes apparent on third downs when so many of the Cardinals routes are run right at the sticks. That was certainly the case against the Rams last Sunday. I took screenshots of every third-down throw that Murray made in rhythm. It’s not hard to find a pattern here…
Why is that an issue? Well, if the defense knows you’re targeting the sticks, they can jump routes that break at the sticks with more confidence…
Again, this is purely anecdotal and I could be way off here. That’s just the sense I get from watching their film.
3. Kingsbury needs to do a better job of using DeAndre Hopkins
A more tangible issue, and one that’s just as concerning, is Kingsbury’s use of DeAndre Hopkins.
Hopkins has rarely strayed from his spot out wide on the left, which makes it far easier for defenses to defend him. Mostly because they know exactly where he’s going to be and don’t have to adjust the structure of their defense or coverage to account for the different alignments. It’s a very collegiate approach to structuring the passing game. At the NFL level, taking advantage of matchups is the name of the game, and you create mismatches by moving your best players around. Kingsbury just isn’t doing a good enough job of using Hopkins right now, and it’s hurting the team on third down.
Hopkins should be getting a lion’s share of the targets in those “gotta have it” situations, but his target rate barely increases on third downs, jumping only 2.2% from early downs. Compare that to how the Packers force-feed Davante Adams the ball on third downs. Adams’ target rate jumps from 26.1% on early downs to 33.6% on third down.
Different defenses have different points of weakness. So it makes little sense to keep your best player in the same spot regardless of opponent, which is how the Cardinals have operated this season. Instead of having Christian Kirk attack that weak nickel, how about putting Hopkins in the slot and letting him do it? If the defense adjusts to help out that weak link, it creates issues elsewhere.
Will Kliff Kingsbury figure things out?
Kingsbury’s has been at this level for less than two seasons, but the early returns suggest he is fully capable of recognizing a problem and fixing it. For instance, the red zone passing game was a major issue for the Cardinals in 2019. They ranked 25th in pass DVOA inside their opponents’ 20-yard-line. This year, they’re up to third. Having Hopkins in the fold has led to some natural progression, but the play-calling has been far better and led to easier throws for Murray.
Now, if Kingsbury can figure out a way to spark a similar turnaround for the third-down passing game — or if, I dunno, he just lets his ultra-talented quarterback throw the ball downfield more often on early downs — the 2021 season could be the year this young Cardinals offense breaks out in the way we expected it to this season.
Cardinals: 3 reasons the offense is sputtering under Kliff Kingsbury (usatoday.com)
Well, over the last few weeks, defenses have figured out how to contain him. Over the last three games — all losses — Murray has run for just 61 yards. Heading into that losing streak, he was averaging 67.1 yards per game. The underlying issues have been exposed, and it’s time for Kliff Kingsbury to make some adjustments in order to take some pressure off his diminutive signal-caller.
It doesn’t take too much digging to figure out what those issues are. I found two big ones that have quietly been festering all season.
1. Too many screen passes to receivers
The biggest issue I found has been the early-down play calling. The Cardinals pass the ball enough, but too many of their passes aren’t going down the field. Look at their pass-run splits — on the surface, they look acceptable. They rank 16th in early-down pass rate, per RBSDM.com, and while they do run a bit more on first down than the analytics nerds would like, it’s not to a concerning point…
You must be registered for see images attach
via RBSDM.com
But in the age of the run-pass option (RPO), run-pass splits can be deceiving. And no team runs more RPOs than the Cardinals. So a decent chunk of the “pass” calls Kingsbury is making on first down are really just extended handoffs. And they’ve been just as efficient as a typical run play. So, not very efficient at all.
At least for the Cardinals, that is.
Murray has lost 13.3 expected points on RPO plays that result in a throw, per Sports Info Solutions. That number leads the league and it’s not even close. Daniel Jones is next up on the list at 3.7 expected points lost. The gap between Jones and Murray is larger than the gap between Jones and Matthew Stafford, who ranks 5th in expected points added.
You must be registered for see images attach
Data via Sports Info Solutions
So, why are the Cardinals so bad at RPOs? It has a lot to do with the type of RPOs they’re calling. While a team like the Chiefs prefers to attach a downfield route (usually a slant) to their run concepts…
Those shorter throws are just inherently inefficient and Kingsbury has Murray making a lot of them. Of the 31 RPO throws Murray has attempted this season, only nine have traveled past the line of scrimmage. Those seven plays may have been the only successful ones of the bunch. The passes behind the line of scrimmage have a success rate of approximately -4256.4%. OK, so that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but those plays haven’t been very productive…
While the passes haven’t been very successful, the threat of them has optimized the run game. Arizona is once again sporting a top-five run game despite its mediocre offensive line and a star-less group of running backs. So those inefficient throws are serving some purprose. I’m, by no means, advocating for fewer RPOs; I just believe those RPOs should focus on pushing the ball a little further downfield.
Now, Murray’s height could be a factor in how Kingsbury is calling these plays. His sightlines are not obstructed on those perimeter throws; but, in theory, it could be harder for him to find throwing lanes on a quick slant thrown over the defensive line. It makes sense in theory, but the Cardinals have thrown a couple of RPO slants and they’ve mostly resulted in good gains.
More of that, please!
2. The third-down passing game stinks
Because the Cardinals had been doing a good job of avoiding third downs over the first half of the season, the third-down passing game wasn’t seen as a big issue, but it really hasn’t looked good all season. Murray currently ranks 28th in EPA per play on third down and 26th in success rate.
You must be registered for see images attach
via RBSDM.com
While Murray’s lack of comfort in the pocket has contributed to some of the problems, I’d put most of the blame on Kingsbury’s uninspired play-calling. I was one of the many analysts praising his creativity when the Cardinals hired him, but most of that creativity is limited to the run game. His passing scheme, though, leaves a lot to be desired, which isn’t a total surprise for a coach with Air Raid roots. The success of that system at the college level has not contingent on a voluminous playbook. It’s actually the opposite: The idea behind the Air Raid is that less volume leads to more precision.
I don’t have any fancy stats to back this up, but from watching the Cardinals over the last two years, it feels like Kingsbury calls plays as if his only goal is to gain just enough yards for a first down. Like every series of downs is its own drive and the first down marker is the goal line.
That really becomes apparent on third downs when so many of the Cardinals routes are run right at the sticks. That was certainly the case against the Rams last Sunday. I took screenshots of every third-down throw that Murray made in rhythm. It’s not hard to find a pattern here…
You must be registered for see images attach
Why is that an issue? Well, if the defense knows you’re targeting the sticks, they can jump routes that break at the sticks with more confidence…
Again, this is purely anecdotal and I could be way off here. That’s just the sense I get from watching their film.
3. Kingsbury needs to do a better job of using DeAndre Hopkins
A more tangible issue, and one that’s just as concerning, is Kingsbury’s use of DeAndre Hopkins.
Hopkins has rarely strayed from his spot out wide on the left, which makes it far easier for defenses to defend him. Mostly because they know exactly where he’s going to be and don’t have to adjust the structure of their defense or coverage to account for the different alignments. It’s a very collegiate approach to structuring the passing game. At the NFL level, taking advantage of matchups is the name of the game, and you create mismatches by moving your best players around. Kingsbury just isn’t doing a good enough job of using Hopkins right now, and it’s hurting the team on third down.
Hopkins should be getting a lion’s share of the targets in those “gotta have it” situations, but his target rate barely increases on third downs, jumping only 2.2% from early downs. Compare that to how the Packers force-feed Davante Adams the ball on third downs. Adams’ target rate jumps from 26.1% on early downs to 33.6% on third down.
Different defenses have different points of weakness. So it makes little sense to keep your best player in the same spot regardless of opponent, which is how the Cardinals have operated this season. Instead of having Christian Kirk attack that weak nickel, how about putting Hopkins in the slot and letting him do it? If the defense adjusts to help out that weak link, it creates issues elsewhere.
Will Kliff Kingsbury figure things out?
Kingsbury’s has been at this level for less than two seasons, but the early returns suggest he is fully capable of recognizing a problem and fixing it. For instance, the red zone passing game was a major issue for the Cardinals in 2019. They ranked 25th in pass DVOA inside their opponents’ 20-yard-line. This year, they’re up to third. Having Hopkins in the fold has led to some natural progression, but the play-calling has been far better and led to easier throws for Murray.
Now, if Kingsbury can figure out a way to spark a similar turnaround for the third-down passing game — or if, I dunno, he just lets his ultra-talented quarterback throw the ball downfield more often on early downs — the 2021 season could be the year this young Cardinals offense breaks out in the way we expected it to this season.
Cardinals: 3 reasons the offense is sputtering under Kliff Kingsbury (usatoday.com)
