Valley Real Estate

[BigRedRage]

Home refi's have fallen 50% annually. There must be a ton of layoffs in that industry.

Massive. They are all trying to flock to my shop. Loan depot had HUGE cuts

 

[BigRedRage]

I told my brother (mortgage broker) last year, while working in So Cal, to bust his ass with refis and purchases during this next run up... fortunately, he did well. But, he'll soon have to find something else..

Have to pivot. New home buys. Equity loans.

 

[BigRedRage]

I think he was saying that it has been undervalued for so long now it is where it should have been.

I think this is the new normal. We're the 5th largest metropolitan city in the nation. We're catching up to CA prices from 2006. We're not even expensive yet, technically.

 

[AZ Native]

I think this is the new normal. We're the 5th largest metropolitan city in the nation. We're catching up to CA prices from 2006. We're not even expensive yet, technically.

Compared to income?

 

[BigRedRage]

Compared to income?

Obv incomes will need to rise for employers to find employees not that housing and rental incomes are where they are.

Anyone expecting a major catastrophic come down is praying at this point. If we do see a correction, I don't expect it to be large like before. The current economic situation was not made by stated income loans and bad lending practices that would lead to a massive rush of foreclosures like last time

 

[Folster]

In the summer of 2015 there was 1.2M homes for sale. Today there are only 250K.

 

[BigRedRage]

My house is now listed from opendoor about $80,000 more than they bought it from me for. The highest offer I had to buy it, besides opendoor, was about 95,000 less than they listed it at.

I wonder if their plan is to let it sit while the value rises or what.

That will be wild if they get that much for it. It should appraise for about 75k less than they listed it at right now.

 

[AZ Native]

It's crazy now. A house 3 doors down went for 95K over the appraisal. They moved here from CA and paid cash. Told me what a great house for the price (it was not well taken care of by the prior owner). I'm a Realtor but not getting into the "you could have done a lot better").

The inside was so bad (water damage, old original white appliances, whitewashed oak cabinets etc) that they completely gutted it and started over. Oh yeah, new roof too. Based on what they told me they will have about 300K more in it than what a comparable home in the area is worth. But they are OK with it, it's their house.

Of course the comp for their purchase is driving up asking prices in this area.

 

[dscher]

Of course the comp for their purchase is driving up asking prices in this area.

A nasty cycle that is just about everywhere right now.

 

[Devilmaycare]

In the summer of 2015 there was 1.2M homes for sale. Today there are only 250K.

Is this for the Valley or some larger region? Asking because I thought there was only about 1.4-1.5m homes in the metro Phoenix area. So both of those numbers are a bit higher than I'd expect as a percentage of that.

 

[Folster]

Is this for the Valley or some larger region? Asking because I thought there was only about 1.4-1.5m homes in the metro Phoenix area. So both of those numbers are a bit higher than I'd expect as a percentage of that.

The US. I believe it is snapshot data.

 

[Devilmaycare]

The US. I believe it is snapshot data.

Thanks, I was going to be shocked if Phoenix alone had those numbers. Now I'm surprised that both numbers are so low for the US. The 2015 numbers are only about .9% of the US. Before seeing that I would have guess that we turn over like 4-5% of the market each year. The today number then is shockingly low being ~ 1/5 the 2015 number.

 

[AZ Native]

Is this for the Valley or some larger region? Asking because I thought there was only about 1.4-1.5m homes in the metro Phoenix area. So both of those numbers are a bit higher than I'd expect as a percentage of that.

Not sure as last I check there were just over 900K homes for sale in the US so that has to be for a larger area than just Arizona. I'll check to see if I can find something more definitive.

 

[Folster]

The difference between 2.5% and 5% on a 400K starter house in Phoenix is $566/m and $204K over 30 years. The hits keep coming for home shoppers.

 

[elindholm]

My house is now listed from opendoor about $80,000 more than they bought it from me for. The highest offer I had to buy it, besides opendoor, was about 95,000 less than they listed it at.

I wonder if their plan is to let it sit while the value rises or what.

That will be wild if they get that much for it. It should appraise for about 75k less than they listed it at right now.

Knowing Opendoor, I'm sure their plan is to lose money one way or another, to be sure to frustrate their stockholders. Hopefully their incompetence won't negatively impact you. Good luck!

 

[BigRedRage]

Knowing Opendoor, I'm sure their plan is to lose money one way or another, to be sure to frustrate their stockholders. Hopefully their incompetence won't negatively impact you. Good lt

They already bought the house from me so my part of the bargain is over

 

[AZ Native]

They already bought the house from me so my part of the bargain is over

I'm glad it worked out for you. But I have had a few bad dealings with OD. And I am not bashing them. I have a son and 2 friends who work there. But they have not been ethical in my dealings with them.

 

[jbjarko]

We are kicking around the idea of buying a new build in a different market that hasn't shot up quite like Phx. Any ideas where a good place to buy would be? Thank you

 

[dscher]

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[Folster]

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This is probably the largest tax ever levied on the middle class, specifically first time homebuyers. Factor in student loan debt from tuition inflation that many in that age group carry. Incredible.

 

[dscher]

This is probably the largest tax ever levied on the middle class, specifically first time homebuyers. Factor in student loan debt from tuition inflation that many in that age group carry. Incredible.

The fed has officially cornered the overall asset market. When you massively inflate/dollarize the world and you have control over that money supply...betting against that is a bad idea. That's why I'm so bullish on treasuries. Until the dollar collapses, which won't be for some extended time IMO, then yields will always stay suppressed.

 

[cwamjn]

We are kicking around the idea of buying a new build in a different market that hasn't shot up quite like Phx. Any ideas where a good place to buy would be? Thank you

I like San Luis Obispo.

 

[Folster]

New home sales down over 16% nationwide.

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[dscher]

On our way to rates needing to match consumer demand..

 

[Finito]

I get the emails from realtor and I see it every day “price decrease” on almost every home.

I think we’ve def passed the top and are on our way down. Just how far down who knows