Vegas Thinks Cardinals Don’t Make Playoffs

[Solar7]

in fairness: you are describing 25 (or more) NFL teams here

name the team, and i will give you the realistic "where it goes right" and "where it goes to hell"

its why the NFL has worst to firsts and a 30% annual playoff team turnover

But it's to a degree. Like, the Rams have no reason to believe that Cam Akers is suddenly going to fall off a cliff. They have no reason to feel Cooper Kupp is too old and oft-injured to contribute as the #2 WR.

I could continue, but you get the point. There's a lot more we need to worry about.

 

[football karma]

But it's to a degree. Like, the Rams have no reason to believe that Cam Akers is suddenly going to fall off a cliff. They have no reason to feel Cooper Kupp is too old and oft-injured to contribute as the #2 WR.

I could continue, but you get the point. There's a lot more we need to worry about.

lets do the Rams:

why they fail:

they are counting on a 40 year old left tackle who had knee issues last year to protect a QB that has shown he will hold the ball. Their starting center left in FA and the incumbent is a journeyman.

of their top 12 players or so on defense, they lost 5 of them to free agency.

They have had wholesale changes on their coaching staff: they also lost their defensive coordinator as well and a couple key defensive assistants. They also lost their run and passing game coordinators.

they were a top 5 team last year in terms of injury avoidance. Will they be so lucky again?

Finally -- the big wildcard: is Matt Stafford a really good QB held back by a bad team, or, is he a super talented QB that makes enough questionable decisions that he is destined to be 8-8?

 

[Dan H]

Seven teams again next year, right?

 

[Solar7]

lets do the Rams:

why they fail:

they are counting on a 40 year old left tackle who had knee issues last year to protect a QB that has shown he will hold the ball. Their starting center left in FA and the incumbent is a journeyman.

of their top 12 players or so on defense, they lost 5 of them to free agency.

They have had wholesale changes on their coaching staff: they also lost their defensive coordinator as well and a couple key defensive assistants. They also lost their run and passing game coordinators.

they were a top 5 team last year in terms of injury avoidance. Will they be so lucky again?

Finally -- the big wildcard: is Matt Stafford a really good QB held back by a bad team, or, is he a super talented QB that makes enough questionable decisions that he is destined to be 8-8?

I'm not saying there's not a "why they'll fail" narrative to each team, but that there's less of a "we need this guy to be someone he's not" feeling to them and other teams.

Like, let's talk guys we can be pretty confident in as Cardinals fans to replicate their general career performance/last year and be key parts of why we make the playoffs. I have:

Kyler Murray
DeAndre Hopkins
Budda Baker
Rodney Hudson
DJ Humphries -- maybe.

I can't think of anyone else. Then here's a (partial) list of key contributors we have reason to believe can't stay healthy, have lost a step, or need to be much better to be the reason we win:
IF JJ Watt stays healthy
IF Chandler Jones recovers
IF AJ Green plays more like he did in 2018
IF Jordan Phillips stays healthy AND plays more like 2019
IF Malcolm Butler doesn't give up the most receptions and yards in the league like 2020
IF *insert rookie CB/Alford/etc.* can hold up at CB2
IF Chase Edmonds is a true starting RB and is more the guy we've seen in his breakout games and not starts
IF someone can step up at RG

So many others are just guys.

 

[DVontel]

Rams are the only team I’ll 100% pencil in to make the playoffs.

I was never one of those people to think “Seattle gonna fall off this year finally!!”, but everyone is keeping an eye on that Russell Wilson vs Seattle FO situation.


49ers’ have a very good roster & Shanahan is a very good coach, but their best players outside of Fred Warner are injury prone. I also think the media is understating the transition involving their DC & most of the secondary. We’ll see though.


We can very easily finish 4th & I wouldn’t be shocked at all, but I can’t 100% pencil in SF & SEA like I can LA.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Or we just score more points than the other team lol

Kind of cause and effect there . . .

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Add VJ improving

Eh I think at this juncture he is what he is.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

lets do the Rams:

why they fail:

they are counting on a 40 year old left tackle who had knee issues last year to protect a QB that has shown he will hold the ball. Their starting center left in FA and the incumbent is a journeyman.

of their top 12 players or so on defense, they lost 5 of them to free agency.

They have had wholesale changes on their coaching staff: they also lost their defensive coordinator as well and a couple key defensive assistants. They also lost their run and passing game coordinators.

they were a top 5 team last year in terms of injury avoidance. Will they be so lucky again?

Finally -- the big wildcard: is Matt Stafford a really good QB held back by a bad team, or, is he a super talented QB that makes enough questionable decisions that he is destined to be 8-8?

I think you just supported solar’s argument, many of those questions are degrees less than our questions.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Rams are the only team I’ll 100% pencil in to make the playoffs.

I was never one of those people to think “Seattle gonna fall off this year finally!!”, but everyone is keeping an eye on that Russell Wilson vs Seattle FO situation.


49ers’ have a very good roster & Shanahan is a very good coach, but their best players outside of Fred Warner are injury prone. I also think the media is understating the transition involving their DC & most of the secondary. We’ll see though.


We can very easily finish 4th & I wouldn’t be shocked at all, but I can’t 100% pencil in SF & SEA like I can LA.

I think this is all pretty accurate.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

QB - Incremental increase in the backup

RB - Downgrade for now

WR - I hate saying it but Incremental upgrade

TE - Clear downgrade and I feel is harder to replace than RB

OL - Massive upgrade

DL - Upgrade to potential large upgrade

LB - wash between losing Reddick / Campbell and gaining Jones

CB - Upgrade

S - Wash

K - Upgrade with possibly massive upgrade

Keim has had a great off season and has set this team up to compete for the division

 

[kerouac9]

I know it may surprise some on this board to see me type this, but I think they can make the playoffs. It will take the right mix of facts, but none are seemingly impossible:

remain healthy

bounce back years from geriatrics

kliff improves as coach

murray takes step forward

chase proves he can handle lead back duties

contributions from rookies and more from our sophomores

Bill Barnwell made a pretty good point last week, saying that the Cards are depend on ALL of these guys to be top 10 players at their positions:

Murray
Hopkins
Hudson
Watt
Jones
Simmons
Baker
Maybe Edmonds

Of all of those guys can have Pro Bowl type seasons, the Cards could make the playoffs. If two of them are just average, we don’t have the additional high-end talent or coaching skill to elevate.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The only one that matters is Murray. He stays healthy and plays pre injury we make the playoffs

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Which is why the Hudson move is so huge.

 

[Solar7]

QB - Incremental increase in the backup

RB - Downgrade for now

WR - I hate saying it but Incremental upgrade

TE - Clear downgrade and I feel is harder to replace than RB

OL - Massive upgrade

DL - Upgrade to potential large upgrade

LB - wash between losing Reddick / Campbell and gaining Jones

CB - Upgrade

S - Wash

K - Upgrade with possibly massive upgrade

Keim has had a great off season and has set this team up to compete for the division

I think it's really early to call CB an upgrade. Where we stand today, Butler is pretty much equivalent to Pat P at best, and Alford hasn't played in two years/a CB hasn't been drafted, so CB is a mystery.

We've downgraded in some spots and upgraded in some others and how that balances out is really dependent on older guys returning to form.

 

[AZman5103]

Bill Barnwell made a pretty good point last week, saying that the Cards are depend on ALL of these guys to be top 10 players at their positions:

Murray
Hopkins
Hudson
Watt
Jones
Simmons
Baker
Maybe Edmonds

Of all of those guys can have Pro Bowl type seasons, the Cards could make the playoffs. If two of them are just average, we don’t have the additional high-end talent or coaching skill to elevate.

I think its fair to expect top 10 play from everyone on that list except Simmons and Edmonds....and they might do better than expected this season.

If we get lucky and add in top 50 production from Kirk and Green....and we have some decent running game...this offense should be pretty good.

I also think the defense will be able to cause more pressure and turnover this year which only helps. Jones, Watt, Golden, and Simmons should be able to put us near the top of the league in QB pressures/hurries/hits

 

[Garthshort]

Well the Cardinals think that Vegas won't make the playoffs. So now we're even.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I think it's really early to call CB an upgrade. Where we stand today, Butler is pretty much equivalent to Pat P at best, and Alford hasn't played in two years/a CB hasn't been drafted, so CB is a mystery.

We've downgraded in some spots and upgraded in some others and how that balances out is really dependent on older guys returning to form.

By every measurable statistic, it's an upgrade

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I think its fair to expect top 10 play from everyone on that list except Simmons and Edmonds....and they might do better than expected this season.

If we get lucky and add in top 50 production from Kirk and Green....and we have some decent running game...this offense should be pretty good.

I also think the defense will be able to cause more pressure and turnover this year which only helps. Jones, Watt, Golden, and Simmons should be able to put us near the top of the league in QB pressures/hurries/hits

Right?

Hopkins will be a top 10 WR
Hudson will be a top 10 C
Baker will be a top 10 C
Jones will be a top 10 Edge.

Those are top 5 guys

If Murray is top 8ish they are a playoff team

 

[Solar7]

By every measurable statistic, it's an upgrade

If he retains his efficiency. By how much he gave up, no, it is not. He objectively gave up more yards, receptions, and the same amount of TDs.

 

[JosiahLee]

Vegas usually gets it right.

Top 3 reasons why they don’t make the playoffs:

1) NFC West is the best division in football
2) The schedule is brutal. The 17th game against a good Browns team doesn’t help.
3) The coaching liability that is Kliff

Top 3 reasons we make the playoffs:

1) The veterans/team stays healthy (I’m looking at you CJ & JJ)
2) Kyler takes the next step in his development
3) We eliminate the penalties that led us to being the most flagged team in 2020

 

[QuebecCard]

Currently there is a prop for each team to make or miss the playoffs. Currently it is -230 for the cardinals to miss the playoffs and +190 for them to make the playoffs. This would mean you would have to wager $230 to win $100 if you are betting on them to miss the playoffs.

Haven’t seen any O/U for win totals yet but with those odds my guess would be 7.5.


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Vegas "thinks" this is the best way (odds) to draw in the punters, nothing more or less.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Vegas "thinks" this is the best way (odds) to draw in the punters, nothing more or less.

They just want to split the bets and pocket the vig

 

[Dr. Jones]

I think Kliff costs us 2 to 3 games with his gameplans alone.

Until DHop travels, and until we stop throwing horizontally so much, the players will not be put in consistent places to succeed unless they just start defying his play calls.

 

[HoodieBets]

Vegas "thinks" this is the best way (odds) to draw in the punters, nothing more or less.

What punter bets on this cardinals prop? These bets are made by more sharps then squares. The odds are telling me everyone is hammering the no and they are begging for yes bets.


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