Warner's turnovers analysis

[az1965]

Somers' analysis - pretty good

Even though three were due to poor protection, Warner should still be partially responsible to try to better protect the ball.

http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/KentSomers/34578

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Somers' analysis - pretty good

Even though three were due to poor protection, Warner should still be wholly responsible to try to better protect the ball.

http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/KentSomers/34578

Fixed that for you. Warner should be able to take a sack without fumbling the ball. One or maybe even 2 fumbles might have been acceptable. Not 5.

 

[moklerman]

Has anyone noticed if Warner was ignoring underneath routes going for the big play or what?

I don't see any practical reason why Edge isn't helping Brown on every play and then trickling off into an outlet position either in the flat or in the middle.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Has anyone noticed if Warner was ignoring underneath routes going for the big play or what?

I don't see any practical reason why Edge isn't helping Brown on every play and then trickling off into an outlet position either in the flat or in the middle.

Except the one time that he didn't ignore the underneath route, it was a pick 6 to Revis.

Silly Warner.

 

[joeshmo]

Fixed that for you. Warner should be able to take a sack without fumbling the ball. One or maybe even 2 fumbles might have been acceptable. Not 5.

Winner, Winner chicken dinner. He would have had half the fumbles if he only held the ball with two hands and not at his waist.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Winner, Winner chicken dinner. He would have had half the fumbles if he only held the ball with two hands and not at his waist.

Right? Alot of QB's get sacked and don't give up the ball like that. He holds the ball with one hand and like he is COMPLETELY OBLIVIOUS to pressure around him.

To me he just look defeated that game. I didn't like his body language whatsoever and I guarantee you its cuz Wiz and Haley were chewing him up behind closed doors.

I don't agree with this "analysis" at all. Levi Brown looks like garbage (and awesome! another first round bust!) but for some reason I feel like 95% of the staring QBs in the NFL in the same scenario would have a) taken a sack without fumbling b) thrown the ball away c) sidestepped the rush.

 

[SuperSpck]

I posted this in the Campos thread where it was promptly ignored, but in regards to QB's fumbling:

The easiest way is to find the most extreme examples and find out how many QB fumbles occurred in those games.

Here's what I've found:

5 way tie for 12 sacks (most team sacks in a game) each
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Records_(Team)#Sacks)

1) Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers (11/20/66)
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...6611200pit.htm

The Steelers sacked the Don Meredith 12 times and there were 3 fumbles by the Cowboys. None lost, credits for fumbles not given. Pittsburgh also had 2 INTs.

2) St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Colts (10/26/80)
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...8010260clt.htm

The Cardinals sacked Bret Jones 12 times. There was 1 uncredited fumble in the game it was not lost. The Colts also had 2 INTs.

3) Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions (12/16/84)
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...8412160det.htm

The Bears sacked Eric Hipple 12 times. There were 3 uncredited fumbles, 1 lost. The Lions also had 1 INT.

4) Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Oilers (9/29/85)
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...8509290oti.htm

The Cowboys sacked Warren Moon 12 times. There were 3 uncredited fumbles, 1 lost. The Oilers also had 4 INTs.

5) New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles (9/30/07)
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...0709300nyg.htm

The Giants sacked Donovan McNabb 12 times. There were 4 uncredited fumbles, 1 lost. The Eagles had 0 INTs.

According to NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/boxsco...2008&week=REG4)

Kurt Warner was sacked 5 times and fumbled 4 times. He lost all 4 fumbles. He threw 3 INT's

What I don't know is if Warner came close to the most turnovers in a single game, but if guys are getting sacked 12 times and fumbling around 1/4 of the time during record games and Warner fumbled at close to a 1:1 clip, he's not looking good in the eyes of history. I can't imagine what'd happen if Kurt got sacked 12 times.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

I posted this in the Campos thread where it was promptly ignored, but in regards to QB's fumbling:

The easiest way is to find the most extreme examples and find out how many QB fumbles occurred in those games.

Here's what I've found:

5 way tie for 12 sacks (most team sacks in a game) each
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Records_(Team)#Sacks)

1) Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers (11/20/66)
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...6611200pit.htm

The Steelers sacked the Don Meredith 12 times and there were 3 fumbles by the Cowboys. None lost, credits for fumbles not given. Pittsburgh also had 2 INTs.

2) St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Colts (10/26/80)
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...8010260clt.htm

The Cardinals sacked Bret Jones 12 times. There was 1 uncredited fumble in the game it was not lost. The Colts also had 2 INTs.

3) Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions (12/16/84)
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...8412160det.htm

The Bears sacked Eric Hipple 12 times. There were 3 uncredited fumbles, 1 lost. The Lions also had 1 INT.

4) Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Oilers (9/29/85)
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...8509290oti.htm

The Cowboys sacked Warren Moon 12 times. There were 3 uncredited fumbles, 1 lost. The Oilers also had 4 INTs.

5) New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles (9/30/07)
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...0709300nyg.htm

The Giants sacked Donovan McNabb 12 times. There were 4 uncredited fumbles, 1 lost. The Eagles had 0 INTs.

According to NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/boxsco...2008&week=REG4)

Kurt Warner was sacked 5 times and fumbled 4 times. He lost all 4 fumbles. He threw 3 INT's

What I don't know is if Warner came close to the most turnovers in a single game, but if guys are getting sacked 12 times and fumbling around 1/4 of the time during record games and Warner fumbled at close to a 1:1 clip, he's not looking good in the eyes of history. I can't imagine what'd happen if Kurt got sacked 12 times.

That is good stuff

How can you read that and STILL ignore the onus is on Warner with the turnovers????

 

[moklerman]

The "just plain drops" are all on the QB, which I don't think Warner had yesterday.

The getting sacked and not hanging onto the ball are 99% on the QB. I think one of the fumbles may have fallen into that category.

The fumbling while in the act of throwing all depends on how long the QB waited to throw the ball. Whis said that one wasn't Warner's fault, but it was probably more close to borderline with the amount of time it took.

The getting stripped while looking downfield is 75% on the QB. Poor protection is a big part of it but the QB has to be aware of his surroundings and most of the time, Warner has no excuse for being surprised at not having a ton of time.

While Warner has at least gone past his simple dropping of the ball and/or the snap, he still has to take most of the blame for his carelessness/risk taking. I'm not really sure which is his case but holding the ball low on the hip is a recipe for disaster. I'm very disappointed that the two handed drills that Whis had him practice didn't stick.

 

[az1965]

I posted this in the Campos thread where it was promptly ignored, but in regards to QB's fumbling:

The easiest way is to find the most extreme examples and find out how many QB fumbles occurred in those games.

...

Good data. But whenever you deal with numbers, you need to take a larger sample, not cherry pick some example to prove your point. I'd like to see a lot more data. But, no one can deny Warner's issue with holding on to the ball on sacks.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Good data. But whenever you deal with numbers, you need to take a larger sample, not cherry pick some example to prove your point. I'd like to see a lot more data. But, no one can deny Warner's issue with holding on to the ball on sacks.

In the first three games he had no fumbles on 7 sacks.

 

[SuperSpck]

Good data. But whenever you deal with numbers, you need to take a larger sample, not cherry pick some example to prove your point. I'd like to see a lot more data. But, no one can deny Warner's issue with holding on to the ball on sacks.

I agree, but by using the games in which the most sacks occurred in a single game (12) I was hoping to show the impact of high frequency. In these 5 games there were 60 sacks, which is a large sample set. It was a quick simple check, and I don't feel like "cherry picked" is the way I got these numbers. These are all the 12 sack games and if there had been 12 drops than I would have said that Warner's performance under those conditions were par for the course.

 

[NeverSayDieFan]

I think we need to call Chuck Norris...

and teach Kurt how to "fall" while protecting the ball. As the pocket collapses he looks like a human "pinata" with everyone clawing & ripping at the ball. The play is dead! HIT the turf! Hold onto the ball. Live to pass again!

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Fixed that for you. Warner should be able to take a sack without fumbling the ball. One or maybe even 2 fumbles might have been acceptable. Not 5.

Or maybe throw it away, over the head of a WR, out of bounds.......just a F'N THOUGHT WHEN YOUR ON THE 9 YARD LINE!!!!!!!

 

[Linderbee]

I posted this in the Campos thread where it was promptly ignored, but in regards to QB's fumbling:

fwiw, I read that in the other thread & found it very interesting. Didn't comment that I can remember, but wanted you to know it wasn't ignored. Thought it was a cool bit of research you did.

 

[SuperSpck]

fwiw, I read that in the other thread & found it very interesting. Didn't comment that I can remember, but wanted you to know it wasn't ignored. Thought it was a cool bit of research you did.

Thanks 'bee.

 

[joeshmo]

I'm very disappointed that the two handed drills that Whis had him practice didn't stick.

What makes it all the more frustrating is that he was doing two hands up at his shoulder or ear in the first 3 games. Then this game rolls along and the ball is one hand at his hip. It was the first thing I noticed about him this year.

 

[Russ Smith]

In the first three games he had no fumbles on 7 sacks.

And that actually made Sunday scary for me. Typically Warner is like a boxer that takes so many punches and then gets punch drunk and loses the ability to hang on to the ball. You can see the buildup week to week in sacks before it comes.

There have really been 2 games in his career where that wasn't the obvious case, the last start as a Ram which was the first game of the year, and we found out later he had a concussion. And Sunday's game with the Jets. 7 sacks in 3 games isn't a lot, Kurt wasn't getting hit a lot on other plays, he wasn't beaten up, so there was no suggestion that he was about to start fumbling again but it happened on the first drive of the game and continued the rest of the half.

Hopefully at home in a nice dry field he'll be better, and hopefully Levi will get his head out and block his man this week or stand on the sideline and watch someone else play.

 

[moklerman]

Two things that might have affected Warner in Sunday's game that I haven't seen get much talk:

1) being away from his family. He was somewhat vocal about spending the week away from them and it may have affected his psyche. I hope that isn't the case but his demeanor seemed different than usual from the very start of the game. Obviously didn't get better as the game went along.

2) he smacked his hand on a helmet in the first half and was pulling at his finger. Did it go numb for a while? I don't remember precisely when it happened but it seems like it coincides with all of his troubles. He seemed fine in the first quarter for the most part, couldn't hold onto the ball in the 2nd and seemed to be "normal" in the 3rd and 4th.

Not making excuses, just looking for a silver lining that might indicate he will revert to the game 1-3 Warner.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

2) he smacked his hand on a helmet in the first half and was pulling at his finger. Did it go numb for a while? I don't remember precisely when it happened but it seems like it coincides with all of his troubles. He seemed fine in the first quarter for the most part, couldn't hold onto the ball in the 2nd and seemed to be "normal" in the 3rd and 4th.

I remember this. If this is why he couldn't hold onto the ball, then I blame KW and the coaches for not seeing it.

 

[Cheesebeef]

2) he smacked his hand on a helmet in the first half and was pulling at his finger. Did it go numb for a while? I don't remember precisely when it happened but it seems like it coincides with all of his troubles. He seemed fine in the first quarter for the most part, couldn't hold onto the ball in the 2nd and seemed to be "normal" in the 3rd and 4th.

Not making excuses, just looking for a silver lining that might indicate he will revert to the game 1-3 Warner.

the numb finger coincides with all his troubles? his first awful fumble was in the first quarter before any smacking happened. same goes for the awful pick he threw with all the time in the world... and then he still fumbled again in the fourth after he might have returned to normal. I'm not sure if the rest of the fumbles has anything to do with it, but we saw two fumbles and a pick that assuredly didn't.

 

[moklerman]

his first awful fumble was in the first quarter before any smacking happened.

I don't remember when it happened. I thought it was on one of the first two drives when the offense was actually moving the ball but stalling in the red zone. I don't remember though.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I don't remember when it happened. I thought it was on one of the first two drives when the offense was actually moving the ball but stalling in the red zone. I don't remember though.

Kurt fumbled on the first possession we had. That was before the smacking occurred.

 

[moklerman]

I'm not contending that it was the cause of all of his mistakes, just that it may have contributed to the horrid 2nd quarter that stood out even compared to most of the rest of the game.

Maybe it didn't have any effect at all, I'm just hoping that the pain or numbness or whatever added to whatever problems he was having with his focus and decision making.

Only so much that can be done in cyberspace on a Wednesday. Just thinking out loud.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I'm not contending that it was the cause of all of his mistakes, just that it may have contributed to the horrid 2nd quarter that stood out even compared to most of the rest of the game.

Maybe it didn't have any effect at all, I'm just hoping that the pain or numbness or whatever added to whatever problems he was having with his focus and decision making.

Only so much that can be done in cyberspace on a Wednesday. Just thinking out loud.

I forgot about him hitting the helmet with his hand. That certainly could have affected him in the 2nd Quarter. However I doubt we will ever know.