Way too early 2021 1st Round Mock Draft

[Cardiac]

In a vacuum I probably like the positional value of Jayson Oweh over Pat Freiermuth. The question I have is how much does Chandler Jones have left? I think he has plenty so it makes me hesitate a bit to take a guy who is going to share snaps for two years.

Re: Vance...it is more about seeing what has happened this year and not wanting to repeat it. If we cut Chandler or traded him, Oweh is the guy IMO easy because he would fill a clearly defined role which would also be vacant. Very similar to Simmons. If Devondre was not on the roster, Simmons would be in the starting lineup.

Freirmuth, is he similar to Kittle.

 

[Chopper0080]

you can never have to many pass rushers and on this team they’d find a way.

we’re not drafting a TE they really haven’t shown any interest in making them a major part of the offense.

This was the argument with Simmons. They would find a way...and yet they haven't.

RE: TE..all this staff has been talking about recently is how excited they are to get Maxx Williams back as he really helps this offense. In the preseason, Dan Arnold as a pass catching threat and how Kyler liked throwing to him.

Here is our TE usage since week 1

Week 1 - Maxx played 52%
Week 2 - Arnold played 73%
Week 3 - Daniels played 58%
Week 4 - Arnold played 54%
Week 5 - Daniels played 67%
Week 6 - Daniels played 71%
Week 7 - Daniels played 50%

For the year Christian Kirk has 10% more snaps than Daniels. TEs used a ton in our offense, the problem is that we do not have a bunch of talent at TE.

 

[Chopper0080]

Freirmuth, is he similar to Kittle.

His athletic comp is Travis Kelce.

 

[Chopper0080]

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[Finito]

This was the argument with Simmons. They would find a way...and yet they haven't.

RE: TE..all this staff has been talking about recently is how excited they are to get Maxx Williams back as he really helps this offense. In the preseason, Dan Arnold as a pass catching threat and how Kyler liked throwing to him.

Here is our TE usage since week 1

Week 1 - Maxx played 52%
Week 2 - Arnold played 73%
Week 3 - Daniels played 58%
Week 4 - Arnold played 54%
Week 5 - Daniels played 67%
Week 6 - Daniels played 71%
Week 7 - Daniels played 50%

For the year Christian Kirk has 10% more snaps than Daniels. TEs used a ton in our offense, the problem is that we do not have a bunch of talent at TE.

just stop trying to compare Simmons to a pash rusher. It’s night and day. Little bit different and if you honestly can’t see that then idk.

how long has it been since this organization has put real legit effort in to trying to use a TE. It’s not what we do. Yes they are on the field pretty much to block downfield when we need them.

I get it you see the Patriots and say oh we should do that, but we’re not

 

[Proximo]

1st pick has to be a pass rusher or a corner. Really can't be anything else.

 

[HGC]

I think New England trades up to #1 for Lawrence
Out of character for BB to actually trade for a better pick but he has a playoff team that just needs a QB once his guys return.....
Jets will do it because Sam Darnold ain’t the problem

Everyone knows that Gase is a bum but Darnold hasn’t shown enough at any point in his career to pass on a player who rates as highly as Lawrence. Hell would freeze over before the Jets traded his rights to New England.

 

[Chopper0080]

just stop trying to compare Simmons to a pash rusher. It’s night and day. Little bit different and if you honestly can’t see that then idk.

how long has it been since this organization has put real legit effort in to trying to use a TE. It’s not what we do. Yes they are on the field pretty much to block downfield when we need them.

I get it you see the Patriots and say oh we should do that, but we’re not

I get it that I understand the TE creates a huge matchup advantage for NFL offenses which is why most of the prolific offenses in the game use them. Andy Reid. Kyle Shannahan. Bruce Arians.

I get it that Dan Arnold has 53 less receiving yards than Larry Fitzgerald so you are essentially stating that we use our TE the same way we use Larry Fitzgerald.

Re; Simmons and Oweh and the potential similarities...if you don't see or understand the potential parallels, I don't know that I can explain them any better.

 

[AirRaid]

Everyone knows that Gase is a bum but Darnold hasn’t shown enough at any point in his career to pass on a player who rates as highly Lawrence. Hell would freeze over before the Jets traded his rights to New England.

Exactly, New York isn't giving New England the shot at another 15 year+ quarterback, they'll take the top receiver or pass rusher and call it a day.

 

[juza76]

I see the 49ers trading for darnold

Jets will take lawrence

Matt Ryan to the patriots

Atlanta will trade up for Fields, and sign Mariota

Fitzpatrick will be our back up qb, is what I wish so i predict it

Cam Newton going to Jacksonville to compete with minshew

 

[Finito]

I get it that I understand the TE creates a huge matchup advantage for NFL offenses which is why most of the prolific offenses in the game use them. Andy Reid. Kyle Shannahan. Bruce Arians.

I get it that Dan Arnold has 53 less receiving yards than Larry Fitzgerald so you are essentially stating that we use our TE the same way we use Larry Fitzgerald.

Re; Simmons and Oweh and the potential similarities...if you don't see or understand the potential parallels, I don't know that I can explain them any better.

Bruce Arians really? Cause last I checked he was head coach here for awhile

Fizgerald is a slot receiver not a TE and no it’s not the same and he’s old af but yeah your right I’m saying he’s exactly Dan Arnold. Jesus Christ

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

A TE in the first round? No thanks.

we desperately need a pass rusher. Jones is 30 and will be coming off a major injury

I’d love to take the best offensive lineman

PSU guy is good, but yeah you have to be off the charts good at that position to warrant it and we have depth issues.

I would say pick the best interior offensive lineman. Beachum is killing it. Jones has played well in limited snaps. DJ is borderline all-pro. Pugh/Sweezy/Murray/Cole/Gaillard have been good but not great and they’re a bit older as a position group. The key to our team is Murray. We keep him safe and our run game strong and we will compete for Super Bowls for the next 10-15 years.

However, I don’t like picking a G/C in round 1. I could see Keim trading out for the first time ever. He may want to help out the cap situation and accrue better cheap value.

If Keim really likes a CB, I could see him sitting still in R1.

My ideal scenario:
1. Trade down and pick up another pick or two in middle rounds.
2. Draft a G/C, CB, and EDGE/OLB in top75
3. Use some of the saved money to keep Peterson and Reddick

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Golden and Reddick are FA next year. Unless they both sign cheap (like $4m each cheap) I think he can only keep one of them. Jones was down this year and FA after next. OLB has to be a serious consideration.

Good work though, takes a lot of effort.

Golden may be willing to take a pay cut to stay. If not, it’s easy to keep Reddick over him, unless his price is astronomical.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Between Golden, Reddick, Kennard, and Jones (who likely will take a pay cut in the form of a restructure) I am not sure Keim is going to take an upside pass rusher like Jayson Oweh just for Vance to sit him behind vets to learn after Isaiah Simmons. I think he is going to trust Kliff to use a mismatch like Freiermuth, he will like the physical element he brings, and it adds another vertical threat all in the same package. Hopkins, Freiermuth, and Kirk is an interesting group of pass catchers for Kyler moving forward and you can play all of them at the same time. 6'5 255 who I believe will run a 4.6 to 4.70 is special (he is rumored to run a 4.5 but I have to see that).

The other problem is that if you take an edge rusher in round 1, you almost have to take a guy to replace Chandler Jones, but are you ready move on from Jones? You aren't going to pay Chandler Jones 15 mil to play a part time role. So, you end up paying Jones 20 mil in 2021 or cutting him (neither are great options) and then you draft a dude to play behind Jones who gets 85% of snaps. Like we have seen with Isaiah Simmons behind Devondre Campbell that leads to a wasted year.

Simmons having a wasted year is news to me. He just delivered us our first win against Seattle at home in like a decade in Game 7. Simmons’ role is also extremely unique and his position is far more nuanced than EDGE/OLB. Vance has done nothing but AFFIRM Keim’s confidence in him this year.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I agree that it has to be a serious consideration, but we also have to recognize that taking an OLB in round 1 has other implications with a coordinator like Vance. No one would care that Isaiah Simmons was not getting snaps if he was drafted in round 2. Round 1 changes things.

Same would go if we drafted an OLB in round 1 next year.

The Cardinals almost have to do something with Chandler Jones contract. I don't think they would cut him which leaves the option for a pay cut in the form of an extension. If they do so, they are acknowledging that he is still a quality player and one that they want on the field. Call it a 3 year, 45 mil extension with 30 guaranteed. Even if they reduced his snaps by 15%, he is still on the field 70-75% of the game for the next two years outside of injury.

They will likely re-sign Golden OR Reddick to pair with Devon Kennard. The two players probably have snap counts around 50-65%.

So, if you draft Jayson Oweh (or whatever EDGE guy is your flavor) in round 1, where does he get snaps?

It is the Isaiah Simmons question for a 2nd year in a row and we can't count on Vance to suddenly change who he is.

Our only shot to make it work would be to either move Chandler Jones inside in nickel packages or pay Chandler Jones 15 mil per year for 3 years to play 60% of snaps. Now maybe Oweh could play both spots, but Vance doesn't seem to like moving guys like that.

Does anyone care about Simmons’ snap count now? He got burned by Mostert and won us the Seattle game. I am happy with the snaps he is currently getting in our *checks notes* top10 defense by DVOA and 9th ranked scoring defense. NOBODY CARES HOW MANY SNAPS ANY ROOKIE GETS IF YOU ARE WINNING. Nobody cares about anything (except injuries) if you are winning.

I hope Vance doesn’t change who he is! He won us the Seattle game with his halftime adjustments. Hating Vance is so Bickley right now.

 

[BritCard]

I get it that I understand the TE creates a huge matchup advantage for NFL offenses which is why most of the prolific offenses in the game use them. Andy Reid. Kyle Shannahan. Bruce Arians.

I get it that Dan Arnold has 53 less receiving yards than Larry Fitzgerald so you are essentially stating that we use our TE the same way we use Larry Fitzgerald.

Re; Simmons and Oweh and the potential similarities...if you don't see or understand the potential parallels, I don't know that I can explain them any better.

I completely understand your reasoning, and yes TE is a weakness, I just don't think Round 1 TE is value for money.

In round 1 I want the positions of most value unless we are already elite and we aren't. QB, T, CB, Edge are the primo picks. DT and ILB maybe. TE is way down the list of value.

 

[Southpaw]

Freirmuth, is he similar to Kittle.

Freirmuth is a freaky athlete. Probably best value on the board when Cards 23rd slot pick comes up. An edge rusher at the #23 can be found in 2nd round. i.e Quincy Roche,

 

[Southpaw]

1 - NY Jets - Trevor Lawrence - QB - Clemson
-Easy choice. Big, strong and athletic. Lots of college starts. A player who can turn around a bad franchise.

Slam dunk pick

2 - NY Giants - Justin Fields - QB - Ohio St.
-I will argue that this is the right move but not one I am sure they make. Fields is another QB who can turn around a franchise. There are weapons on the Giants that they shouldn't want to waste trying to make Daniel Jones work.

No, no, no do a trade out.

3 - Jacksonville - Zach Wilson - QB - BYU
-At some point you have to reach a bit for a QB. Wilson is worth a first, and if you want a QB, you are going to have to take one early in this draft. They have a nice RB and some nice WRs...just need someone better than Minshew.

Love this guy and pick but I am not done with Minshew.

4 - Miami - Micah Parsons - LB - Penn St.
-LBs drive the bus on this defense and Parsons is smart and can do a lot of different things. He is a difference maker on defense and the type of front 7 player the Dolphins are missing.

Depends on Tua's 10 game tryout

5 - Atlanta - Patrick Surtain - CB - Alabama
-If you want to stop giving up big leads, you need to get your secondary right. Pairing him with AJ Terrell gives the Falcons a cost controlled, young CB duo to match the WRs in the NFC South.

Smart pick but no GM or HC to call this one. I can see Ryan going to Pats and there is nothing behind him. Trey Lance is there for the taking.



6 - Dallas- Penei Sewell - OT - Oregon
-The rebuild of the Cowboys starts here. They need to shed salary if they are going to keep Dak and Tyron Smith is one of the easiest options. Sewell gives them a young, cheap LT to pair with a young C, and complement Zach Martin and La'el Collins.

Defense, defense, defense

8 - LA Chargers - Ja'Marr Chase - WR - LSU
-Originally I thought a LT would be the fit here, but Chase is too good to pass up. Herbert gets a perfect compliment to Keenan Allen and the Chargers start adding firepower to keep up with the Chiefs.

Defense defense defense

9 - New England - Devonta Smith - WR - Alabama
-Belichick likes Alabama players and he knows he needs to get faster on offense. Smith helps add this dimension though it is tough to believe the Pats will take a WR this high. They likely would trade down, but they need to get a WR sooner rather than later.

Trade down

10 - Minnesota - Christian Darrisaw - OT - Virginia Tech
-Darrisaw is an athletic OT in the mold of the Kubiak offense. He has consistently elevated his game and will help give Cousins the best chance to not be a liability.

Kubiak could be gone unless he is HC in waiting when Zimmer gets canned.


13 - Detroit - Gregory Rousseau - EDGE - Miami
-Lions need a pass rusher and Rousseau has the potential to be great. I am not sold on him, but Detroit has a history of taking some risks on raw athletes.

Rousseau goes higher and won't be there. probably snatched by Chargers or Cowboys.

15 - San Francisco - Jaycee Horn - CB - South Carolina
-Tall, physical CB who fits the 49ers defense. Fills a need and is also a culture and scheme fit.

WR help needed or this is where Mac Jones QB slips in. Jimmy G gets 1 more year.

16 - Miami - Creed Humphrey - C - Oklahoma
-C is an important position and it will be nice to have a C for Tua to grow with. Creed physically matches what Miami will want to do on offense and elevates the physicality of the offense.

No 1st round centers, ever

17 - Las Vegas - Rashod Bateman - WR - Minnesota
-I don't know that they Raiders are going to move on from Carr and if not, they need more weapons. Bateman is a Mayock type of guy and complements Ruggs who they took last year.

Too soon for another 1st round WR. Tons of 2nd/3rd round WR help

22 - Indianapolis - Joseph Assai - EDGE - Texas
-Colts need a pass rusher and Assai has really elevated his game this year. He can step in for Justin Houston and provide pressure off the edge and give that front 7 another playmaker.

Who is 2021 QB ?????

23 - Arizona - Pat Freiermuth- TE - Penn St
-Cardinals need a CB here, but none are worth it. EDGE is an option, but I don't know that Keim will trust Vance with another raw athlete, and so that leaves offense. The Cardinals want to be more physical and Freiermuth adds that element and a needed RAC receiver. Kliff has embraced 11 personnel sets and the possibility of adding the perfect blend of Maxx Williams and Dan Arnold will be too good to pass up. Also, Keim will love recruiting from his home state.

Great value/need at #23 Flip a coin , this guy or Kyle Pitts TE Florida

25 - Green Bay - Terrace Marshall Jr. - WR - LSU
-Rodgers likes big WRs who can go get the ball and Marshall is that guy. He has great size and speed and will give the Packers a nice player opposite of Adams.

Any WR please.

27 - New Orleans - Rondale Moore - WR - Purdue
-Speed to complement Michael Thomas and give the Saints the deep threat they have missed since Ted Ginn wandered off. Jaylen Waddle also an option but health is a concern.

Who is the 2021 QB ????


28 - Buffalo - Aidan Hutchinson - EDGE - Michigan
-Big and physical on the edge. Versatile lineman. Not necessarily a pass rusher but a better version of Trent Murphy.

Maybe, but they had better get a WR and TE in 2nd / 3rd

31 - NY Jets - Travis Etienne - RB - Clemson
-Because the Steelers may not re-sign James Conner, I believe the Jets take Etienne here and Wyatt Davis at 33. Etienne gives a pass catching outlet to Lawrence, helps build a running game, and there is a familiarity between the two which will help Lawrence.

1st RB taken ????

33 - NY Jets - Wyatt Davis - OG - Ohio St
-This is just a bonus because I feel people will ask. He falls because he is an OG. Too many teams needing OTs and pass rushers.[/QUOTE]

Trevor Lawrence and Etienne will be happy

 

[Rohinaz]

I would be fine with a TE, I would also be good with Terrace Marshall, we need another big WR target. Also would be good with Etienne, he is flat out electric.

 

[Proximo]

Golden may be willing to take a pay cut to stay. If not, it’s easy to keep Reddick over him, unless his price is astronomical.

Golden is 30 and a subpar pass rusher - IMO he is not who you want as a starter
Reddick is undersized and not really a very good pass rusher either.

I don't want either back unless they are very cheap - and it should be as a backup in both cases.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I would be fine with any offensive weapon because Kingsbury is an elite play caller, and Murray is Murray. TEs are not really the most deadly weapons, especially for a guy like Murray who usually doesn’t need to worry about quick short throws because he doesn’t get blitzed.

 

[Dr. Jones]

1st pick has to be a pass rusher or a corner. Really can't be anything else.

Keim has been super consistent about the positions he will consider in the first round. QB, CB, OT, Someone who can rush the passer

I love Pat and get to see him in Happy Valley most weekends when there isn't a pandemic. As far as I'm concerned, he's an awesome luxury but not a 1st rounder.

We need a CB, Pass Rusher, or insane O-Line talent.

That means (In no particular order):
Sewell
Rousseau
Leatherwood
Cosmi
Humphrey
Parsons
Moses
Surtain
Adebo

etc.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Also..... I really trust our coach to make this offense hum as long as Kyler, Nuk, and most of our first string lineman are healthy.

We need to LOAD up on defensive talent.

 

[overseascardfan]

Also..... I really trust our coach to make this offense hum as long as Kyler, Nuk, and most of our first string lineman are healthy.

We need to LOAD up on defensive talent.

Agreed. Jones and Peterson will be FA's over 30 and drafting replacements would be wise. Looks like we'll be picking in mid to late first round so guys like Surtain and Farley will be gone. I've mentioned in other posts my interest in Carlos Basham Jr of Wake Forest who I think can become a solid NFL pass rusher especially learning from and playing opposite Jones.

I feel we could get a CB in Round 2 and maybe an interior OL in Round 3. I think ARZ will re-sign Kirk so WR may not be a high priority even if Fitz hangs them up by chance.

 

[Vacard]

We should be looking at Rb too. Entienne with KM would make us phenomenal