Week 12: Jags @ Cards Predictions

[Brian]

I want to get this in while the Kool-aid is flowing like a river.

Jacksonville is 5-1 in their last 6 games, averaging about 24 points per game in that stretch. Leftwich is consistently passing for around 200 yards per game all season so nothing special there.

Now, this is where it gets tricky, and the enigma that is the Jags takes over:

They have eeked out wins over the bottom feeders (Tennessee, Houston, and the J-E-T-S),

Lost to the Lambs,

Beaten the upper echelon teams (Pitt, Cincinatti, and Seattle),

and held the Colts and their high powered offense to 10 points.

As another poster on here astutely observed, they definitely play to the level of competition.

IMHO Rowen should not call one running play up the middle (unless BIG is the ball carrier). The Cards just do not have the strength in the interior line to take on John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. Utilize JJ's speed to the outside away from Reggie Hayward and take advantage of Paul Spicer. Spicer is a decent pass rusher but doesn't play well against the run. If the Cards can get decent pass protection look for the long ball to pick on FS Deon Grant. He was a liability on the Panthers Super Bowl defense and will be a liability against the likes of Anquan, Fitz, and McCoy.

Defensively, the Green vs. Ernest Wilford matchup looks intriguing. Wilford doesn't have alot of catches (25 for 408) but has a good average (16.3). If the Cards blitz Wilson early and often, FS Robert Griffith should be kept plenty busy downfield.
Leftwich has been sacked 23 times this year (2.3 per game).

This game may turn out to be frustrating for a couple of reasons. First, if the Jags shut down the run completely, look for ALOT of 3rd and long situations, and ALOT of Scott Player. 2nd, if the Cards run D doesn't come out with the same intensity, look for one more player to have a career rushing day against the Big Red.
If the pass protection holds up against a very nasty Jags interior line, Kurt should be able to pick apart the secondary.

I see a relatively low scoring game, but because of the Jags time and again playing to the level of the competition, I am anticipating a close Cards win. This game will be close either way, and low scoring. If the run D shows up again, the Cards win 17-14.

 

[seesred]

If Wilson can play like he did last week and Blackstock can help Dansby I feel confident that we can make Leftwich try to beat us. I'm confident that Machlin Griffith and Green can hold thier own. Kurt has picked up on the three step pass to Q and Fritz. Using JJ and Bergain could be to much for the Jags defense. And we are home.

All that being said they can't let down at all this week. I too believe it will be low scoring and if we play the way we did against the lambs we will win this game.

GBR
40

 

[Redsz]

Personally, I think we should use similar tactics to how we played the Rams. Bring Wilson up to the LOS to try to stop the run and dare Leftwich to beat us. Because I would rather face Leftwhich in a shoot out than Fred Taylor in a slug fest.

 

[jstadvl]

They're

going to look past us. They don't think the Rams are in their league, so our "BIG" win doesn't count for much. I think we win in a close game.
TE's and D will make the difference for us.

 

[Stout]

I'm such a sucker.

Cards 24 Jags 17.

 

[iapetus]

Jaguars fan here: congratulations on your win this week. A few bits of feedback on what people here are saying...

They don't think the Rams are in their league, so our "BIG" win doesn't count for much.

Hard to justify that claim: we lost to the Rams, after all.

Personally, I think we should use similar tactics to how we played the Rams. Bring Wilson up to the LOS to try to stop the run and dare Leftwich to beat us. Because I would rather face Leftwhich in a shoot out than Fred Taylor in a slug fest.

That's what the Titans did - planned to stop the run game and dared Leftwich to beat them. The result? He put up the best performance of his career, with three TDs through the air and one on the ground. Dare Kyle Boller to beat you. Dare Tommy Maddox to beat you. Don't dare Leftwich to beat you.

Fred's not up to game speed at the moment - he's missed a few games and barely made an impact in the last one (think he may have had negative yardage overall). That's not to say he isn't always a threat, but he's not 100% and I don't think you guys need to be overly afraid of him. If he starts and plays the full game it'll be the first time in a while he's done that.

Greg Jones is likely to be sharing the carries, and he's a very different back - far more pure power. Less likely to break off a big run, but more likely to carry defenders for four yards and a cloud of dust.

Wilford doesn't have alot of catches (25 for 408) but has a good average (16.3).

Don't let the stats deceive you here. Wilford doesn't have a lot of catches because he wasn't in the starting lineup. He was given the nod as the second receiver fairly recently, so expect his catches to go up now that he's over his recent injury. He's never going to burn you deep, but he's great at catching the ball (something most of our receivers had a problem with early in the season).

As another poster on here astutely observed, they definitely play to the level of competition.

I wouldn't disagree with that. Although through this season we've mostly been playing slightly above the level of competition, hence the record. The Baltimore game was an important one for me, because it was the first time we showed that we could dominate a team.

Leftwich has been sacked 23 times this year (2.3 per game).

Skewed towards the start of the year, though. Khalif Barnes coming in at LT made a big difference to this team. He's a rookie, and he'll still make mistakes, but if there's one golden rule in football it is this: Never start a LT whose nickname is 'Turnstile'. I'd almost be tempted to make the bold claim that if Barnes had been playing (at the standard he did when he came into the starting lineup) in week 2, Indianapolis would not be undefeated at this point in the season.

You've picked a good time and a bad time to be playing against the Jags. A bad time in that it seems like the offence is finally starting to click - after four years of never scoring 30 points in a game we've now got back-to-back 30+ point games. A good time in that we're in the middle of a three-game away stretch, and that's never good for teams. It's almost always a recipe for at least one loss.

Got to figure that this game is going to be a real test of the pass defence. We're ranked highly on that front with good reason - just look what we did to the Colts - but the Cards are still going to be a challenge on that front with your WR talent.

Obviously I'm going to pick the Jags to win this one - not just because I'm a fan of the team (didn't stop me predicting losses against the Steelers and Colts) but because that's the way the performance of the teams this season seems to suggest the game should go. But you're right to say that looking past the Cardinals would be a bad idea, and I'm hoping the team learnt that lesson from the Rams.

Either way, hoping for a good game with no injuries (especially after losing Nick Sorenson to a brutal hit from one of his own team in the Titans game...)

 

[Osbern61]

I think the main thing the Cards have going for them is(like iapetus said) the Jags taking a 3 game win streak on the road.

Not enough, I fear: Jags 20 Cards 15.

 

[Brian]

Iapetus,

Thanks for the good info!

 

[Jttsaz]

Iapetus,

Thanks for the good info!

Very insightful info indeed...welcome

 

[Kel Varnsen]

Iapetus,

Thanks for the good info!

Thanks, man.

 

[Shell]

Before anyone gets to upset with me over my post on our board about the people on the other Cards board I want to say that I've been reading through the posts here and you seem to be a much more intellegent, classy group of people. Thank you for the breath of fresh air and the chance to say there may still be hope for the state of AZ. I really do love the state, just not most of the people. There are exceptions to every rule though.
That being said, I also will not disagree that we tend to play down against "lesser" teams, but we still manage to get the W.
Cats - 35
Birds - 27

 

[Pariah]

As I posted in another thread, I think the Jags are going to take us apart provided they show up for the game.

I think Smith will give Macklin some trouble and I don't think our nickelback (Tate? I think that's who's playing there now) will be able to matchup against Jones. I think whoever is toting the rock for them, be it Taylor or Jones, should have a field day.

I fear for Warner as I think the interior of their D line will really expose the interior of our O line. It's a strength on a weakness.

Jags: 34
Cards: 16

I'd like nothing more than to be wrong.

PS--For you Jags fans, Pearman looks like an electric runner to me. Why isn't he getting the snaps instead of Jones. I know Jones is pretty good, but he was playing FB. What's being said about Pearman?

 

[spanky1]

I don't have a good feeling going into Sunday. I've studied their depth chart and they have a very very good defense......solid from top to bottom. Fact of the matter is that the Rams defense compared to the Jags is really night and day.

I'm not a real big fan of Leftwich and think that he is over rated. It's just my opinion of course. No need for all of his supporters to jump all over me.

I think we can make it difficult on their offense but they will make it hard on our offense......sense a low scoring game. This might work to our advantage.

A win here and the confidence level of the team goes sky high.....could be the game that turns the season around.

 

[iapetus]

PS--For you Jags fans, Pearman looks like an electric runner to me. Why isn't he getting the snaps instead of Jones. I know Jones is pretty good, but he was playing FB. What's being said about Pearman?

Pearman seems to be seen more as a third-down back. He's had some fumbling issues earlier in the season but he's good solid depth. In the games where they've both had to substitute for Taylor Jones has been more effective, though. Jones has also provided at least part of the solution to our long-standing short-yardage problem.

I'm not a real big fan of Leftwich and think that he is over rated. It's just my opinion of course. No need for all of his supporters to jump all over me.

Don't worry - we're more than used to people being down on Leftwich - there's a huge contingent of 'fans' bashing him back on the Jaguars board. I'll just politely disagree with you and leave it at that.

 

[earthsci]

I've got to stay with my mojo. Whoever their RB is (Taylor or Jones), he's going to kill us.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

While Leftwich is here let's send them BJ and Pace for him in a trade.

 

[clif]

I'm gonna go against the grain and predict a rare back to back win. We pulled this stunt about this time last year.

 

[nidan]

Welcome Iapetus, are there any ASFN like places for the Jags ?

I tried going to their 'official' board but it seems about as informed and civilized as the Cardinals official board, ie not at all, except for a small minority of the posters. Most folks there seem to be of the mind "We are great, everybody else sucks except the Cardinals who aren't even that good and their fans suck as well."

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I don't think the Cards match up very well with Jax.Their strength(Henderson and Stroud) is the Cards weakness(middle of the OL). Plus, their pass defense is pretty good. I think the Cards keep it close and lose 16-13.Hope i'm wrong.

 

[nidan]

IMO this is the toughest game we have left, assuming the Colts are not 15-0 in the alst week.

 

[NEZCardsfan]

I'm gonna go:
Jags 21
Cards 17

 

[CaptTurbo]

My Prediction? Pain

 

[CardinalLaw]

Kurt comes back to the full Cards fans support, for his first time. He keeps up the hot streak. Jags travel cross country to an underestimated foe. Clancy instills another solid defensive gameplan. Rackers continues his on fire streak.

Cards 27
Jags 17

 

[CardinalLaw]

Heres a prediction for MIT. You knows those mathematicians know there stuff.

Jaguars at Cardinals: The Jaguars are in the middle of their three game road trip, and they might lose focus against a good offense. Their passing defense will be tested against Arizona by the dual threat of WR Larry Fitzgerald and WR Anquan Boldin. Do not be surprised if the Cardinals beat this Jaguar team. Even if they lose, the Cardinals will stick close.

http://www-tech.mit.edu/V125/N56/56nfl.html

 

[Mr.Dibbs]

I'd love to see back-to-back wins, but the Jags are good. Unless they overlook us, we should lose.

We need one more offensive player to have a breakout game inorder to win this one.

21-19 Jags.