Week 13 clinching scenarios for Arizona -- none yet

[TheCardinal]

With the Seahawks' win over Pittsburgh, I don't see any clinching scenarios for the Cardinals in Week 13. But we can get VERY close.

If AZ wins over STL + MIN wins over SEA:
The best Seattle could then do is tie us at 10-6 and the tie-breaker would come down to strength-of-victory. Eight of our ten wins would be a wash; the only differences are that we beat CIN/NO while they beat PIT/DAL. Advantage to ARI: 13 vs 9, with ten potential "wins" for each ARI and SEA. We could extend the lead to 15 vs 9 after week 13 (wins by CIN and NO, losses by PIT and DAL), with eight potential "wins" remaining for each, so no clinch yet, but would take for PIT and DAL to virtually win out while CIN and NO don't win another game.

For at least a wild-card, again, no clinch that I could find, but mainly because Atlanta and Tampa Bay play each other. At least the winner of that game (or ATL if they tie) could still mathematically catch us.

 

[splitsecond]

I am so tired of Seattle's BS home cooking. Richard Sherman has karma coming his way, I don't know what it will be but it is going to be great.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Stout]

With the Seahawks' win over Pittsburgh, I don't see any clinching scenarios for the Cardinals in Week 13. But we can get VERY close.

If AZ wins over STL + MIN wins over SEA:
The best Seattle could then do is tie us at 10-6 and the tie-breaker would come down to strength-of-victory. Eight of our ten wins would be a wash; the only differences are that we beat CIN/NO while they beat PIT/DAL. Advantage to ARI: 13 vs 9, with ten potential "wins" for each ARI and SEA. We could extend the lead to 15 vs 9 after week 13 (wins by CIN and NO, losses by PIT and DAL), with eight potential "wins" remaining for each, so no clinch yet, but would take for PIT and DAL to virtually win out while CIN and NO don't win another game.

For at least a wild-card, again, no clinch that I could find, but mainly because Atlanta and Tampa Bay play each other. At least the winner of that game (or ATL if they tie) could still mathematically catch us.

You have the tiebreaker all wrong. First tie-breaker is head-to head which, in this scenario, isn't a tiebreaker. Second is division record, which gives us the edge at 4-1 against 2-2 for them, at that point, but there are division games left. Worst we could finish is 4-2, and best they can finish is 4-2, so that would be another tie. Then you go to conference wins. After your week 12 scenario, we would be 8-1 in conference and Seattle would be 5-5 in conference, so, with 4 games to go, they would not be able to catch us.

So, if we win and Seattle loses next week, we actually would clinch the division in week 12, not week 13.

 

[cardpa]

You have the tiebreaker all wrong. First tie-breaker is head-to head which, in this scenario, isn't a tiebreaker. Second is division record, which gives us the edge at 4-1 against 2-2 for them, at that point, but there are division games left. Worst we could finish is 4-2, and best they can finish is 4-2, so that would be another tie. Then you go to conference wins. After your week 12 scenario, we would be 8-1 in conference and Seattle would be 5-5 in conference, so, with 4 games to go, they would not be able to catch us.

So, if we win and Seattle loses next week, we actually would clinch the division in week 12, not week 13.

Actually week 13 would be correct. We would clinch after 12 games but in week 13.

 

[Shaggy]

Yea, wasn't this weekend considered week 12?

 

[conraddobler]

I like to think about scenarios that allow for NFC championship played in AZ.

To me that means finding teams that might be much better than their record who can go on the road to beat Carolina.

There are three teams that might fit the bill.

Packers, Seahawks or Vikings depending on who wins the NFC North and who ends up the wildcard.

All of them could beat Carolina but it will take any one of them getting better between then and now and as of now my money is on the Hawks.

 

[DVontel]

I like to think about scenarios that allow for NFC championship played in AZ.

To me that means finding teams that might be much better than their record who can go on the road to beat Carolina.

There are three teams that might fit the bill.

Packers, Seahawks or Vikings depending on who wins the NFC North and who ends up the wildcard.

All of them could beat Carolina but it will take any one of them getting better between then and now and as of now my money is on the Hawks.

Only team here that I think is better than their record is Seattle, & that's just barely.

 

[Stout]

Ah, yes, game 12, week 13.

 

[Vermont Maverick]

You have the tiebreaker all wrong. First tie-breaker is head-to head which, in this scenario, isn't a tiebreaker. Second is division record, which gives us the edge at 4-1 against 2-2 for them, at that point, but there are division games left. Worst we could finish is 4-2, and best they can finish is 4-2, so that would be another tie. Then you go to conference wins. After your week 12 scenario, we would be 8-1 in conference and Seattle would be 5-5 in conference, so, with 4 games to go, they would not be able to catch us.

So, if we win and Seattle loses next week, we actually would clinch the division in week 12, not week 13.

Pretty harsh approach sentence there, fella.

And actually, you are "all wrong". First, we would be 7-1 in the conference, not 8-1. If we lose all 4 remaining games after that (which are all conference games), we are 7-5. Seahawks have 2 remaining conference games and if they win both, they are 7-5. Then on to the next tie breaker.

TheCardinal is pretty good at this, as I recall from last year. I'll trust him.

 

[Stout]

Pretty harsh approach sentence there, fella.

And actually, you are "all wrong". First, we would be 7-1 in the conference, not 8-1. If we lose all 4 remaining games after that (which are all conference games), we are 7-5. Seahawks have 2 remaining conference games and if they win both, they are 7-5. Then on to the next tie breaker.

TheCardinal is pretty good at this, as I recall from last year. I'll trust him.

I wasn't trying to be harsh, "fella". Sorry you read it that way. And, though I made one mistake (may have been a Yahoo mistake, as that's where I got the info), we're on to the next tie breaker, on which I was correct. So, despite one mistake, my conclusion was correct as well. Calm yourself.

I wasn't trying to bag on TheCardinal in any way; he just posted inaccurate information, and I was posting the accurate information. Strength of victory?

 

[crisper57]

3.5 game lead with 5 to play. Should've been 4.5, stupid Steelers.

 

[Stout]

3.5 game lead with 5 to play. Should've been 4.5, stupid Steelers.

+1

 

[TheCardinal]

I wasn't trying to be harsh, "fella". Sorry you read it that way. And, though I made one mistake (may have been a Yahoo mistake, as that's where I got the info), we're on to the next tie breaker, on which I was correct. So, despite one mistake, my conclusion was correct as well. Calm yourself.

I wasn't trying to bag on TheCardinal in any way; he just posted inaccurate information, and I was posting the accurate information. Strength of victory?

I don't think my info is inaccurate. I said it would come down to strength-of-victory. . . since the other steps in front would be tied.

Head-to-head: both 1-1
Division: both 4-2
Common (comes before conference, since realignment): both 8-4
Conference: both 7-5

Next up would be strength-of-victory, the records of the teams we've beaten. Seven of our wins would be identical (SF, SF, STL, DET, CHI, BAL, CLE) and another is against each other. The only two differences would be our wins against Cincinnati/New Orleans and their wins over Pittsburgh/Dallas. We hold the edge currently. Should that be tied as well, the next step is strength-of-schedule (only two differences are that we will have played NO/PHI and they will have played CRL/DAL, so it would be a huge advantage in their favor).

 

[Russ Smith]

We will see but I'm fully expecting Minnesota to beat Seattle next week. Home game for the Vikings, Peterson on a roll. I think they will be able to exploit the Seahawk OL better than the Steelers did, I think they have a much better pass defense than the Steelers do, and I think they will be able to force Seattle to bring extra guys into the box to stop peterson opening up some plays for Bridgewater.

I think Seattle is 6-6 after next week, if we take care of the Rams we're 10-2 4 game lead with 4 to play and Seattle at home in our future, so we'd control our own destiny.

 

[TheCardinal]

I think Seattle is 6-6 after next week, if we take care of the Rams we're 10-2 4 game lead with 4 to play and Seattle at home in our future, so we'd control our own destiny.

If we beat St. Louis and the Seahawks lose to Minnesota, we will hopefully have clinched long before the finale against Seattle! An Arizona win/tie against the Vikings on Thursday would then seal it. If we lose, then a loss/tie by Seattle at Baltimore on Sunday would do it as well. If the Seahawks win, we can still clinch the NFC West after week 14 with CIN over PIT (week 14, +1 to ARI, no point for SEA), PLUS five of the following six:

CIN over CLE (week 13, +1 to ARI)
IND over PIT (week 13, no point for SEA)
NO over CRL (week 13, +1 to ARI)
WSH over DAL (week 13, no point for SEA)
NO over TB (week 14, +1 to ARI)
GB over DAL (week 14, no point for SEA)

That would give us a strength of victory (SOV) lead of SEVEN with only six more opportunities for the Seahawks to gain ground, clinching the SOV tie-breaker.

We have found some issues with the ESPN playoff machine last season, but it looks like they have this one in agreement. Plug in an ARI win over STL then losses in the last 4, a SEA loss to MIN then wins in the last four. Then change Bengals and Saints wins to losses and Steelers and Cowboys losses to wins, and the 3/6 seeds eventually flip. Funny how changing a seemingly unimportant AFC game like CIN-CLE can determine the winner of the NFC West!