Week 14 Arizona Clinching Scenarios

[TheCardinal]

With the night games (Sunday/Monday) still not complete, here is what I see for next week's games.

To clinch a playoff berth (at least a wildcard):
ARI over MIN
OR
NO over TB + either CRL over ATL OR GB over DAL

To clinch the NFC West:
ARI over MIN + BAL over SEA
OR
ARI over MIN + IND over PIT (week 13) + WSH over DAL (week 13) + CIN over PIT (week 14) + GB over DAL (week 14) + NO over TB (week 14)

 

[TheCardinal]

For clarification in the "NFC West scenario", the strength of victory tie-breaker against Seattle is still in-play since we would beat the Vikings, the same team the Seahawks beat this week, bringing up the same scenario as last week with a tie with Seattle (same h2h, div, common, conf). Our horses would still be CIN/NO, theirs would still be PIT/DAL. The Bengals' win over Cleveland gives us another win (leading 14 to 9), though we missed a win with NO's loss to CRL. Should the five outcomes listed above take place, we would lead in SOV, 16 to 9, with only six more chances for SEA to cover ground, thus clinching the SOV tie-breaker and the NFC West at the end of Week 14. If the Colts lose to PIT, or DAL beat WSH tomorrow night, we can't clinch the SOV tie-breaker next week and could only clinch the division with a win and SEA loss (I'm not looking at games ending in a draw yet).

 

[TheCardinal]

For clarification in the "playoff berth scenario," a win over MIN on Thursday night would lock up a playoff spot since TB and ATL couldn't catch up. Should we lose, we could still clinch a playoff berth after the games on Week 14.

TB would win a straight-up 10-6 tie-breaker on conference record. We would need them to lose for us to clinch a spot in Week 14 (should we lose to MIN).

ATL would NOT beat us straight-up at 10-6, as it would ultimately come down to common games which we would win 3-2 vs 2-3 (common games being NO, SF, PHI, MIN). However, in a three-way tie with someone from the NFC North, the common games step wouldn't meet the minimum of four games, so ATL could jump over us on the next step (SOV).

Let's look at the potential ties. If it is just ARI-ATL at 10-6 for the sixth spot, we win on common games. If it is MIN-ARI-ATL at 10-6 for the 5th/6th seeds, the Vikings win the #5 on h2h sweep, then the #6 is between ARI-ATL which we again win on common games. If it is GB-ARI-ATL at 10-6, it gets a bit more complicated. Their h2h win over us wouldn't apply initially since none of the three teams swept (or was swept). It depends on which games the Packers win to get to 10-6. The scenario assumes we finish 10-6, which gives a ninth win to GB at our expense. Their tenth win would be either DAL, OAK, or MIN. If it is DAL (or MIN), they would win the three-way tie for the #5 on conference record again leaving ARI-ATL for the #6 which we win on common games. However, if their remaining win is against OAK, all three teams have the same conference record, then common games don't apply. Next is SOV which the Falcons would lead strongly (with two assumed wins against Carolina); so, if ATL gets #5, GB would get #6 over us on h2h.

So, as I figure it, we can back into the playoffs wiith a loss to MIN, if we get a TB loss, plus either an ATL loss, or a GB win (ensuring ATL couldn't jump over us).

 

[TheCardinal]

Oh well, the Steelers beat the Colts, so we cannot clinch the SOV tie-breaker over SEA next weekend. Still, we hold a solid advantage (14 wins for CIN/NO vs 10 wins for PIT/DAL), with the Seahawks having nine opportunities (4 from PIT, 5 from DAL) to close the gap, while we have eight opportunities (4 each from CIN/NO) to extend our lead. This scenario only applies in an 11-5 tie where our only remaining win is against MIN.

We could still clinch the NFC West outright in Week 14, but would need to win + SEA loss as before.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Just beat Minny this week and @Philly next week and we clinch the division and quite possibly the 2 seed.

 

[Lagerfilled]

Yup, cause Seattle can't get to 12 wins.

 

[juza76]

We need 2 wins in 4 games and we get first place at NFC West and 2nd seed behind carolina
We could rest outlr starters for last 2 games but if there is a chance to Kick Seattle out of playoff contention

 

[juza76]

We need 2 wins in 4 games and we get first place at NFC West and 2nd seed behind carolina
We could rest outlr starters for last 2 games but if there is a chance to Kick Seattle out of playoff contention u play them

 

[NJCardFan]

We need 2 wins in 4 games and we get first place at NFC West and 2nd seed behind carolina
We could rest outlr starters for last 2 games but if there is a chance to Kick Seattle out of playoff contention

Couple of things. #1, I wouldn't risk injury just to keep them out of the playoffs. #2, because most of the conference is mediocre, looking at their remaining schedule, there isn't a scenario where they don't make it.

 

[clif]

Couple of things. #1, I wouldn't risk injury just to keep them out of the playoffs. #2, because most of the conference is mediocre, looking at their remaining schedule, there isn't a scenario where they don't make it.

Exactly. Also I think them as the 6th seed against Carolina would be intriguing. The most important thing still remains. Control what you can control. Just win and you're in.

 

[Vermont Maverick]

We need 2 wins in 4 games and we get first place at NFC West and 2nd seed behind carolina
We could rest outlr starters for last 2 games but if there is a chance to Kick Seattle out of playoff contention u play them

That's not quite correct. If the Packers win out, they get the #2 Seed if we only win 2 games.

For all intents and purposes, we will clinch the division with a win on over Minnesota as The Cardinal basically says above. At that point we would need Cincinnati and New Orleans to have a better combined record than Pittsburg and Dallas ,due to the Strength of Victory tie-breaker.

 

[RINGLESS]

We need 2 wins in 4 games and we get first place at NFC West and 2nd seed behind carolina
We could rest outlr starters for last 2 games but if there is a chance to Kick Seattle out of playoff contention

That isn't entirely true. If we go 2-2, which means we lose our last two in that scenario GB can steal the 2 seed and push us into the 3.

We would actually need GB to go 3-1 if we go 2-2 to wrap up the 2 seed.
Their schedule unfolds like this
Dallas
@ Oakland
@ Arizona
Minnesota

They could easily win 3 of those. Dallas, Oakland, and the Vikings who haven't been able to beat playoff caliber teams thus far.

 

[crisper57]

Packers have the Cowboys, @ Raiders, @ Cardinals, and Vikings left.

They can easily win 3 of those games. Bottom line: if the Packers win their next 2 games, the game in AZ will essentially be for the #2 seed.

Don't sell your tickets!!!

 

[GuernseyCard]

Packers have the Cowboys, @ Raiders, @ Cardinals, and Vikings left.

They can easily win 3 of those games. Bottom line: if the Packers win their next 2 games, the game in AZ will essentially be for the #2 seed.

Don't sell your tickets!!!

Bottom line ???:

If they win their next 2 games, they are 10-4

If we win our next 2 games, we are 12-2

 

[crisper57]

Bottom line ???:

If they win their next 2 games, they are 10-4

If we win our next 2 games, we are 12-2

Yep.

And if we lose to GB, they will be 11-4, with a reeling Vikings team to close out the season. They will get to 12 wins if they beat us and have a tiebreaker.

Meanwhile, we'd have to count on sweeping Seattle to get a 13th win, and they will still be playing for a playoff position. Not an easy road.

The Packers path is easier, but BOTTOM LINE, we can make their other 3 games irrelevant if we beat them, Hence it is going to be for the #2 seed.

 

[Zeno]

So this weekend aside from winning we should be cheering for the Ravens against the Seahawks, the Cowboys against the Pack and the Falcons against the Panthers.

We would get the #1 seed if we win out and the Panthers lose any 2 games right? As all 4 of their remaining games are NFC opponents, we would have a better conference record having just 1 loss from within the conference. That is the next tie breaker after head to head isn't it?

 

[FrustratedFan04]

If we stumble down the stretch and lose these games so that "tie breakers" become essential, what makes anyone think we'd be going anywhere in the playoffs any way? Forget all that and hope they just concentrate on winning these games and the rest will take care of itself.

 

[splitsecond]

Just Win Baby

 

[TheCardinal]

We would get the #1 seed if we win out and the Panthers lose any 2 games right? As all 4 of their remaining games are NFC opponents, we would have a better conference record having just 1 loss from within the conference. That is the next tie breaker after head to head isn't it?

Yes, we have clinched the tie-breaker against the Panthers due to the (hypothetical) conference record. Now the hard part is for them to lose enough games to force the tie in the first place.

 

[crisper57]

The #2 seed won't be the only thing clinched these next 4 weeks.

 

[TheCardinal]

So this weekend aside from winning we should be cheering for the Ravens against the Seahawks, the Cowboys against the Pack and the Falcons against the Panthers.

I would agree with this. However, there is a playoff-clinching scenario for us that could be triggered with a Packers victory. If we lose, and the Bucs lose, we would clinch at least a wildcard berth with either a Falcons loss or a Packers win. Honestly, still probably better for us in the big picture for the Packers to lose.

Also, if we win on Thursday night, it wouldn't hurt to root for the Bengals over Pittsburgh and for New Orleans to beat Tampa Bay. These would get us closer to clinching the West should Seattle beat Baltimore.

 

[slanidrac16]

This is making me dizzy....

 

[Iceman]

This is making me dizzy....

 

[OKCardFan]

This is making me dizzy....

Well, if you prefer percentages to scenarios, how does 77% to be the #2 seed sound? And <1% for no playoffs! I've always liked this site.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

 

[Dr. Jones]

Honestly, Seattle isn't losing their next 3 IMO.

If we win our next 2...... And we almost HAVE to win our next two..... Then we have the opportunity to rest a bit. Otherwise, I really could envision a scenario where the game against Seattle could be two 11 win teams fighting for the #2 seed or the #5 seed.

If Seattle is the 5 seed...... once they beat the horrible NFC East champ in round one they, most likely, will be on the road at Carolina in the 2nd round. That is one hell of a game. If we can get past the Packers/Vikings winner, we probably get to play a very beat up squad. We would be at home versus Seattle, but my personal pick would be Carolina on the road. I think the boys would love the chance to show them what they were missing last year in round 1. Plus.... I really think the Panthers have had it really easy this year.

I like that last scenario.