Week 15 2022: Heroes and Goats

[BritCard]

I thought you said you negotiated deals for a living?

What agent is going to have his client play out most of the year, risking injury, and then take a deal instead of testing the market where he is likely to have multiple suitors and get a higher price? If Brown isn't extended before the start of the season he will likely test free agency and then be signed by another team.

Which is why he won't sign this year. He will only sign this year if he we offer the money his agent expects to get in 2024 as I've already said.

This "sign early but cheaply for security" thing doesn't exist. Why would Brown sign now coming off a 700 yard season where he missed game in a crappy offense unless you offered him $20m+?

You think he's going to say "Thanks for the $15m for 3 season offer. That gives me financial security for my none existant family and insures me against the 1% chance of a career ending injury".

Or do you think he might want to put up 1000+ yards next season and try maximise what he gets paid?

This idea that you can sign a guy this year for $15m to save paying $20m next year is a myth. Brown could get $15m next year is he missed half the season.

 

[kerouac9]

He has 8 targets a game since he came back from injury playing alongside Nuk and in those games we passed 29, 40, and 36 times. That's a 23% target share.

We passed 591 times last year and 551 already this year with 3 games left. We likely hit 650.

Split the difference and say 620 with a 23% target share would give him 142 targets or 8.35 targets per game.

I didn't say 10. I said 8-10.

This is easily achievable. 30% to Nuk. 23% to Brown. 15% each to Rondale and Ertz. Leaves 17% for others.

So there's no current precedent for it, huh? 8-10 targets per game is "easy" is your assertion.

Let's take a look around the NFL at more functional offenses with a gravity-shaping WR1 and see what kinds of targets their #2s are getting:

MIN (Justin Jefferson): Adam Thielen gets 6.8 targets per game
PHI (A.J. Brown): DeVonta Smith gets 7.4 targets per game
BUF (Stephon Diggs): Gabriel Davis gets 5.9 targets per game
CIN (JaMarr Chase): Tee Higgins gets 6.6 targets per game (and that's with Chase missing four games)
LV (Davante Adams -- Who has a mind-boggling 151 targets through 14 games): Mack Hollins has 6.1 targets per game

Since Hop came back we've averaged 36.9 passing attempts per game, and he's getting 10.8 targets per game. I thin in a functional offense the overall attempts go down but Hop keeps getting his targets, which is why you see such wildly unbalanced target percentages in other functional offenses.

What have you seen from Hollywood as a #2 WR that makes you think he should be good?

 

[BritCard]

So there's no current precedent for it, huh? 8-10 targets per game is "easy" is your assertion.

Let's take a look around the NFL at more functional offenses with a gravity-shaping WR1 and see what kinds of targets their #2s are getting:

MIN (Justin Jefferson): Adam Thielen gets 6.8 targets per game
PHI (A.J. Brown): DeVonta Smith gets 7.4 targets per game
BUF (Stephon Diggs): Gabriel Davis gets 5.9 targets per game
CIN (JaMarr Chase): Tee Higgins gets 6.6 targets per game (and that's with Chase missing four games)
LV (Davante Adams -- Who has a mind-boggling 151 targets through 14 games): Mack Hollins has 6.1 targets per game

Since Hop came back we've averaged 36.9 passing attempts per game, and he's getting 10.8 targets per game. I thin in a functional offense the overall attempts go down but Hop keeps getting his targets, which is why you see such wildly unbalanced target percentages in other functional offenses.

What have you seen from Hollywood as a #2 WR that makes you think he should be good?

It's easy in this offense with it's passing volume. I know this for a fact as he's had 8 targets the last 3 games as WR2. Is it really a stretch to believe he can have 8+ targets a game when he's having 8 targets a game, only 1 of those games was with his best bud Kyler and that game we passed for a season low 29 passes, and he still had 8.

There's no world where he gets 5-6 a game.

I haven't seen anything from Hollywood as a WR2 because since he's been back we ran more than passed vs Chargers and then he played with McCoy and McSorley.

But I saw enough when he was WR1 to know that he can be a good WR1 so he would be a great WR2.

 

[kerouac9]

It's easy in this offense with it's passing volume. I know this for a fact as he's had 8 targets the last 3 games as WR2. Is it really a stretch to believe he can have 8+ targets a game when he's having 8 targets a game, only 1 of those games was with his best bud Kyler and that game we passed for a season low 29 passes, and he still had 8.

There's no world where he gets 5-6 a game.

I haven't seen anything from Hollywood as a WR2 because since he's been back we ran more than passed vs Chargers and then he played with McCoy and McSorley.

But I saw enough when he was WR1 to know that he can be a good WR1 so he would be a great WR2.

He's had 8 targets the past three games without Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz. Obviously no one's passing to A.J. Green and Robbie Anderson. And, yes, I think that eight targets a game is about the maximum a #2 receiver can get when paired with an elite #1 like DHop.

Come on, dude. You're smarter than this. It's okay to say that it's not "easy" for him to get to 10 targets a game.

 

[Chopper0080]

Which is why he won't sign this year. He will only sign this year if he we offer the money his agent expects to get in 2024 as I've already said.

This "sign early but cheaply for security" thing doesn't exist. Why would Brown sign now coming off a 700 yard season where he missed game in a crappy offense unless you offered him $20m+?

You think he's going to say "Thanks for the $15m for 3 season offer. That gives me financial security for my none existant family and insures me against the 1% chance of a career ending injury".

Or do you think he might want to put up 1000+ yards next season and try maximise what he gets paid?

This idea that you can sign a guy this year for $15m to save paying $20m next year is a myth. Brown could get $15m next year is he missed half the season.

You said this

"All this is wasted energy. There won't be an extension until late next season at best when we will have much more info."

and now you contradict what you said. WTF?

Here is what I said since you are struggling to remember who said what. I said it is not worth extending him because he will want top of the market pay THIS offseason and he is not worth it from what he has shown and what Kyler has shown. I also said if we don't extend him he will likely play out the year and test the market.

If you agree with that why are you arguing with me?

 

[BritCard]

You said this

"All this is wasted energy. There won't be an extension until late next season at best when we will have much more info."

and now you contradict what you said. WTF?

Here is what I said since you are struggling to remember who said what. I said it is not worth extending him because he will want top of the market pay THIS offseason and he is not worth it from what he has shown and what Kyler has shown. I also said if we don't extend him he will likely play out the year and test the market.

If you agree with that why are you arguing with me?

You said "If Brown isn't extended before the start of the season he will likely test free agency and then be signed by another team."

He's not going to be extended this year but no reason we can't extend him after next year and he has the incentive to stay with Kyler.