Were we that close?

[AzStevenCal]

I know this will probably anger a few people but here goes. One of the main reasons I believe we should look to rebuild is that I just don't think we're all that close to the promised land. AFAIC, our trip to the WCF came with an extraordinary amount of luck and I just don't see the stars aligning that way again soon.

Dallas ran out of gas, Denver lost their HC at a critical juncture, Utah was beset by a bevy of injuries and Portland lost their best player. We also benefitted from an incredible run by Amare that far outpaces any previous stretch of his career and likely any future stretch. Factor in that the Lakers look to have a few more years in them and OKC is closing fast and the future is not all that bright.

Even if we bring Amare I back I just don't see us being quite as good. Lou and Frye each contributed considerably at times this season and it's probable that neither will be back (and it's doubtful their replacements will match or exceed them). Nash was ineffective (or at least considerably less effective than usual) in roughly a third of the 2010 games because of injury and that's likely to worsen not improve. It's also unlikely that Hill will continue to play at his recent level.

There's no doubt this team can be competitive but I just don't see them as true contenders (or even close, for that matter). Besides his back issue, Lopez has a ways to go before he becomes even a top 10 center. Dragic showed signs of greatness this year but he also showed signs of mediocrity. I expect improvement from both of them but not enough to offset the overall lessening this team will experience because of age, injuries and defections.

It takes a lot of luck to win a championship but IMO it took an awful lot of good fortune just to get us part way there. If we really weren't all that close what good does it do to put out a roughly equal version of it in 2011? Especially when that roughly equal version may prove to be a mirage if age and injuries do catch up to them.

Steve

 

[JS22]

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[joshstmarie]

So youre saying we were lucky? Any way you put it we were 4 seconds away from a 3-2 lead in the WCF. Thats contender status.

 

[Chaplin]

Sweeping the Spurs is NOT luck. Geez, lighten up.

I think it's sad that fairweather fans (of any team in any sport) still believe their team doesn't deserve what they've accomplished, especially if they don't win a trophy.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Sweeping the Spurs is NOT luck. Geez, lighten up.

I think it's sad that fairweather fans (of any team in any sport) still believe their team doesn't deserve what they've accomplished, especially if they don't win a trophy.

I think it's absolutely incredible that you would label me a "fairweather fan" simply for describing the situation the way I see it. I've been a fan since the day they announced Phoenix was getting a franchise and I typically see the best in this team and this organization.

I think we were a better team than the Spurs but the sweep was probably helped along because of matchup advantages. I think the Spurs were fortunate to get out of the first round and they just weren't the monsters of old that always had our number.

You pretty much ignored my point though. Do you really not see how thin the line was between us and the other playoff "losers"? If I were a fan of Utah, Denver, Portland, Dallas or OKC I'd be making the case that it was just luck that put Phoenix in the WCF over any of them. In the end it doesn't matter, we got there and they didn't but from an analytical perspective it's easy to forecast them ahead of us next season. It takes nothing away from this team's accomplishments to recognize the circumstances they benefitted from.

Steve

 

[Cheesebeef]

Sweeping the Spurs is NOT luck. Geez, lighten up.

I think it's sad that fairweather fans (of any team in any sport) still believe their team doesn't deserve what they've accomplished, especially if they don't win a trophy.

i think it's sad that you're attacking one of our fans insulting them as a fairweather fan (which in my opinion is the worst insult a sports fan could be labeled) simply because that person asks if maybe this team got a lot of breaks along the way.

someone questioning how good the team is doesn't make them fairweather. fairweather would be someone bailing and joining the Lakers at this point because the outlook is brighter.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I think it's absolutely incredible that you would label me a "fairweather fan" simply for describing the situation the way I see it. I've been a fan since the day they announced Phoenix was getting a franchise and I typically see the best in this team and this organization.

Steve

Steve, I don't think Chap even knows what the definition of a fairweather fan is. You obviously don't fit the profile.

 

[tobiazz]

There no reason to expect the same team will make it to the WCF next year, but you can expect that level of success from very few teams. As long as they are in the mix you have to go for it.

If this team had squeaked in at the #7 seed or something, it would make much more sense to blow it up. The Suns have a good chance of being a top 4 seed next season and that's about as much as you can ask for.

 

[AzStevenCal]

So youre saying we were lucky? Any way you put it we were 4 seconds away from a 3-2 lead in the WCF. Thats contender status.

Yes, I'm saying we were lucky. It wasn't JUST luck but I find nothing unreasonable in acknowledging that we were fortunate in many respects. If previous Suns teams had an equivalent amount of good fortune we'd have a couple championships by now.

You don't think it was to our fortune that in addition to facing us without either of their centers, Portland also had to deal with the loss of their best player? You don't think it was to our fortune that Denver fell apart without their head coach allowing us to secure the number 3 seed? You don't think it was our good luck that Dallas over-played their aging point guard in order to secure the second seed rendering him useless?

We had some things go against us also but in the history of this franchise I'd be hard pressed to recall a season finish that involved any more luck than this one. On top of the other things, how about the simple fact that we might actually have received the better end of referee calls this postseason. I don't think that's ever happened before.

I'm not being negative here. I think we had an incredible run that was a lot of fun to watch. I just think it's too much to ask for to expect a similar outcome with a similar team next year.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

Steve, I don't think Chap even knows what the definition of a fairweather fan is. You obviously don't fit the profile.

Well, thank you for that. I was a bit surprised by Chap's comment but each to their own I guess.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

The Suns have a good chance of being a top 4 seed next season and that's about as much as you can ask for.

And that's where I disagree with a lot of people here. Maybe I should have said other teams were unusually unlucky rather than say we were lucky but it amounts to pretty much the same thing. Take away the bad luck this year and I believe we are fighting for the 7th or 8th seed instead of the 3rd seed.

Steve

 

[AfroSuns]

I think you can argue the same about the rest teams.
We would have definitely struggled against Blazers if they had their bigs but they are also an inexperience team with a barbie in Oden and Amare has always pwned pryzbillia. We were also missing Lopez, who was on a roll.

Not sure about Denver, although Karl's absence may have had an impact, i just don't see how they can beat the Suns four times (especially with our bench), they are just so eclectic and you never really know what you will get from them.

We flat out beat the Spurs that no one gave us a chance to. no LUCK there. I have little doubt we would have beaten Dallas too.

If Kobe had been sidelined due to an injury, now that would have been luck.

 

[Chaplin]

Steve, I don't think Chap even knows what the definition of a fairweather fan is. You obviously don't fit the profile.

Not giving credit where credit is due and calling it simply "luck" is a copout and you know it. Especially after the 2nd half of the season, the Suns deserved to be in the Western Conference Finals. Luck had NOTHING to do with it.

But if you want to continue to hold to the fact that we suck, that's up to you. But the team has proven to you time and time again, that they DO NOT SUCK.

They were absolutely one of the best teams in the NBA at the end of the season. Good enough to win the title? Sure. But the Lakers were simply a better team, and I'm pretty sure even you would agree with that. But us getting to the WCF was not luck.

 

[Goldfield]

I dont think we are a great team but we were pretty good and had a good bench. If KOBE didnt play like the best player in the NBA we would of beat them IMO.

Great post season either way.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Not giving credit where credit is due and calling it simply "luck" is a copout and you know it. Especially after the 2nd half of the season, the Suns deserved to be in the Western Conference Finals. Luck had NOTHING to do with it.

Maybe it's a copout, but I still don't see any reason to attack someone else for thinking we caught breaks with a) not facing Portland with their best player b) facing the 7 seed and getting HCA in the second round with a team we matched up well with as opposed to facing Dallas without HCA who we didn't match-up well with.

I think it's an interesting discussion. You think it's a cop-out and then personally attack people. Why?

But if you want to continue to hold to the fact that we suck, that's up to you. But the team has proven to you time and time again, that they DO NOT SUCK.

So, now, not only have you personally attacked the original poster but now you're putting OUTRAGEOUS words into his (and presumable mine?) mouth. Show me where it said "we suck". Show me anywhere that I said that or the other guy. Simply saying we might have caught some breaks here doesn't mean "we suck" and it's insulting for someone to claim it does... especially after they've already personally attacked you as a fairweather fan.

 

[cly2tw]

We won and lost in the post season in a similar manner to the earlier years with Nash's team here. We won on actually quite superior talent, and lost because we were forced to play styles we had not prepared ourselves for during regular season plays. And in this particular regular season, we have just started to change game plans mid season and to have success with varieties of game plans next to the stable 'giving it to Nash' one, but just not enough hard tests over the short time span yet. Constantly re-inventing ourselves on the run, that's both strength and weakness. That's how we surprized national experts with our success and how we ended up short at a much stably constructed team with world best player to bail them out against our new looks each game.

To think it, I truly believe we'd beat Celtics easier than we'd have a chance with Lakers, as Celtics' offense is far inferior than Lakers' and wouldn't pose as much of problem to our defense. Yet, I predict Celtics will beat Lakers for title this year with their defense which we lacked.

 

[TJ]

I think you can argue the same about the rest teams.
We would have definitely struggled against Blazers if they had their bigs but they are also an inexperience team with a barbie in Oden and Amare has always pwned pryzbillia. We were also missing Lopez, who was on a roll.

Not sure about Denver, although Karl's absence may have had an impact, i just don't see how they can beat the Suns four times (especially with our bench), they are just so eclectic and you never really know what you will get from them.

We flat out beat the Spurs that no one gave us a chance to. no LUCK there. I have little doubt we would have beaten Dallas too.

If Kobe had been sidelined due to an injury, now that would have been luck.

+1

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think you can argue the same about the rest teams.
We would have definitely struggled against Blazers if they had their bigs but they are also an inexperience team with a barbie in Oden and Amare has always pwned pryzbillia. We were also missing Lopez, who was on a roll.

Not sure about Denver, although Karl's absence may have had an impact, i just don't see how they can beat the Suns four times (especially with our bench), they are just so eclectic and you never really know what you will get from them.

We flat out beat the Spurs that no one gave us a chance to. no LUCK there. I have little doubt we would have beaten Dallas too.

If Kobe had been sidelined due to an injury, now that would have been luck.

For most of the season, Denver was playing like a true contender. Once Karl went out they struggled mightily. We actually matched up well with them so maybe it wouldn't have hurt us face to face but it would have knocked us down in seeding. Until Dallas ran down they really looked like the second best team in the west. They matched up better with us than SA and could very well have beat us if we had faced each other. Portland was minus their bigs for most of the season which clearly hurt their overall finish and with Roy healthy we struggled quite a bit with them.

Yes, we could have had even more luck. Kobe could have been injured in real life not just in the media reports. Artest could have been called for a foul on that put back (it would have been a travesty, but there was contact). And if we had moved on against LA we probably would have won it all. And that would have been the result of even more fortune because Cleveland and Orlando both would have been tougher matchups for us than Boston.

I just think we had more than our share of good luck and benefitted from other teams that had more than their share of bad luck. It happens every year and most of the time we're on the other side of the lucky coin. My point isn't that we didn't deserve to be in the WCF but that we are a very long shot to repeat that success.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

Not giving credit where credit is due and calling it simply "luck" is a copout and you know it. Especially after the 2nd half of the season, the Suns deserved to be in the Western Conference Finals. Luck had NOTHING to do with it.

I think you're turning a blind eye to reality if you truly believe "luck had NOTHING to do with it". Also, I've not suggested we won solely due to luck, just that luck was on our side and to a greater degree than we could reasonably expect.

But if you want to continue to hold to the fact that we suck, that's up to you. But the team has proven to you time and time again, that they DO NOT SUCK.

I've been posting (off and on) to various Suns message boards, forums and the Suns newsgroup for 20 years now and not once have I EVER said the Suns suck. And I certainly said nothing of the sort in this thread.

They were absolutely one of the best teams in the NBA at the end of the season. Good enough to win the title? Sure. But the Lakers were simply a better team, and I'm pretty sure even you would agree with that. But us getting to the WCF was not luck.

I agree the Lakers were a better team. I think we were a pretty good team that was in the right spot at the right time. Make every team healthy and I think we're somewhere between the 6th to 10th best team in the league. Finishing as one of the top 4 isn't a huge stretch but it is a little bit lucky.

Steve

 

[Mainstreet]

It takes a lot of luck to win a championship but IMO it took an awful lot of good fortune just to get us part way there. If we really weren't all that close what good does it do to put out a roughly equal version of it in 2011? Especially when that roughly equal version may prove to be a mirage if age and injuries do catch up to them.

Steve

The Suns were close. As I recall the Suns had the best regular season record since Christmas, earned the third seed and then they advanced two rounds to the WCFs. This does not happen by accident. Chaplin makes a strong point. The Suns earned their trip to the WCF.

The Suns did not have anything given to them on a silver platter. The game is played on the court and the Suns played the games one by one. Facts support the Suns were good not "lucky." You can believe what you like. I'll stick with the facts.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I do think "luck" played a role in where this team ended up... but, if you are really being true here, doesn't luck always enter into the equation for all successful teams? I mean, had Kobe's last second shot in Game 5 hit the rim versus his airball, that game goes into OT and I am willing to strongly suggest that we win that game... and game 6.

Now, if you are trying to say that we are not as talented at the Lakers, or some other teams you have mentioned here, I might be willing to go along with that...in the NBA - probably more than any other pro sport, the best of the best are typically sifted out and rise to the top, largely due to the post season being so grueling.
While I do believe that this Suns team is not as talented as LA, I also believe you don't come this close in the WCF simply by luck... I know you said it's not "Just" luck, but, just mentioning luck as you have here seems to imply that the Suns received an extraordinary amount of good fortune - over and above what other teams received... I just don't see it that way.

 

[cly2tw]

You have to be good, in order to be lucky. It's why everybody condemned Amare's comment on Odom's luck.

 

[green machine]

Were the Suns close? Absolutely.

Are they close at this point? I'm not so confident they are.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The Suns were close. As I recall the Suns had the best regular season record since Christmas, earned the third seed and then they advanced two rounds to the WCFs. This does not happen by accident. Chaplin makes a strong point. The Suns earned their trip to the WCF.

The Suns did not have anything given to them on a silver platter. The game is played on the court and the Suns played the games one by one. Facts support the Suns were good not "lucky." You can believe what you like. I'll stick with the facts.

I think the facts support the Suns were good AND lucky. Joe Johnson gets injured and we get knocked out of the playoffs. Just about every Suns fan on the planet bemoaned our bad luck. Why is the opposite not relevant? Roy is a much better player right now than Joe was back then so why is it hard to understand that we got lucky not having to face our opponent's best player? And that's just one of several circumstances that we benefitted from.

I'll say it again. It's cliche that the team that wins it all benefits from luck along the way. But you don't have to win it all to be the recipient of good fortune. We benefitted from the bad luck that held Denver, Utah, Portland and even Dallas back. It doesn't mean we didn't deserve to be in the WCF but it might mean getting back there soon is a long shot.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

I do think "luck" played a role in where this team ended up... but, if you are really being true here, doesn't luck always enter into the equation for all successful teams? I mean, had Kobe's last second shot in Game 5 hit the rim versus his airball, that game goes into OT and I am willing to strongly suggest that we win that game... and game 6.

Now, if you are trying to say that we are not as talented at the Lakers, or some other teams you have mentioned here, I might be willing to go along with that...in the NBA - probably more than any other pro sport, the best of the best are typically sifted out and rise to the top, largely due to the post season being so grueling.
While I do believe that this Suns team is not as talented as LA, I also believe you don't come this close in the WCF simply by luck... I know you said it's not "Just" luck, but, just mentioning luck as you have here seems to imply that the Suns received an extraordinary amount of good fortune - over and above what other teams received... I just don't see it that way.

I think things happened this season that worked to our favor that you can't really count on in the future. I'm sure there were other teams that also benefitted from an unequal distribution of fortune but it afforded us an opportunity that our team took advantage of. I'm not trying to diminish what these guys accomplished. I just don't think it's reasonable to expect similar results next season.

Steve