What the 2013 Draft Teaches Us About Keim

[kerouac9]

We won't really be able to grade this draft for a few years, so I'll leave the speculation about who will and won't work out for others, as well as most of the back-patting that seems to be going on. I think there are some things that we learned as a part of this process, and I wanted to make a little space for opening the discussion.

1. Steve Keim Drafts for Need. Let's not fool around with this anymore. The Cards were drafting OL in the first round, and were drafting ILB with the second pick. While I have little doubt that Kevin Minter was on top of the Cards' Top 120 board, it's pretty easy to manipulate that board when the pick comes on the clock. Keim won't "pass on an elite player to fill a need," but when he says this, we should read it as "I'm not going to take a 4th round WR with a first round pick because we need a wide receiver."

2. Steve Keim Loves Experienced Players. Minter and Mathieu are underclassmen, but Jonathan Cooper was a three-year starter at North Carolina, and Minter was a team captain in his first year as a full-time starter with the Tigers. Okafor was a senior who played all four seasons for the Longhorns. Earl Watford was a senior who played four seasons. Stepfan Taylor played four seasons for Stanford. Ryan Swope was a senior with four years' playing experience. Ellington was a senior when we drafted him. Keim dislikes players who have fewer than two seasons of production or experience.

3. The Arizona Cardinals under Bruce Arians are going to be a zone-blocking team. Cooper will play between 310 and 315 lbs. Earl Watford is a 300-pounder. Daryn Colledge is 308. The sore thumb in this group is Adam Snyder, who tips the scales at 325 and was a terrible scheme fit for this offense from jump street. The design of the offensive line is to have tackles set the edge in the run game, and loop the interior linemen around them. Make no mistake about this.

4. The Arizona Cardinals under Bruce Arians are going to primarily use a one-back set. This and injury is why Beanie Wells was expendable. Beanie looked best when he had a lead blocking fullback guiding him to the hole. The Cards are going to use a two-TE or three-receiver base offense, and the running back is going to have to be patient waiting for his blocking to develop.

5. Steve Keim doesn't know what to look for in rush linebackers. I like Alex Okafor, and I thought the Cards could draft him as early as the second round. But he was the 9th outside linebacker taken off the board, and he didn't become a priority until very late in the draft. Keim has been burned in the past on rush linebacker choices, both with Cody Brown and O'Brien Schofield. The least dynamic position in an otherwise-dynamic Arizona Cardinals defense has been rush linebacker. The Cards need to poach someone from a 3-4 franchise who can identify players who can get to the quarterback with speed and skill. I don't really care who it is, but I wonder if this organization is afraid to step to the plate. Lorenzo Alexander isn't going to get 6+ sacks per year.

 

[Mulli]

You know who else drafts for need? The 49ers.

Interesting thread though.

 

[Snakester]

I agree. That BPA crap was a load of bull. We did draft for need big time, but we did have a great draft and for that I can't wait to see next years draft.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Good stuff. I'm wondering if Schofield's sack total may go up if he's used primarily on rushing downs. He wore down in the run game. Okafor, from what I've read, seems to be a more likely starter on early run downs.

 

[kerouac9]

You know who else drafts for need? The 49ers.

Interesting thread though.

Dunno how much San Fran needed at OLB and RB, but I get what you're saying. Every team drafts for need. Carolina drafted two DTs 1-2.

Saying that this team does a straight talent projection and builds its 120 board along those lines is silly to me. This was absolutely a need draft. Need tempered by value.

Otherwise we would have drafted a TE earlier than Round 7.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Let's not kid ourselves most of these picks were a mix of need and BPA.

Cooper was a need, but was also quite possible the BPA at the time.

Minter was a need, but was also ranked as the best ILB in the draft by quite a few sites.

HB fills a need, but has 1st round talent.

Okafor fills a need, but was projected by many to go in the 2nd round.

Watford was possibly the only player who was a reach as he was considered by most to be a 5th rounder, but he fits what we are looking for in guards.

Taylor is a need, but he was projected to go a couple rounds higher.

Swope fills the speed receiver need, but was projected to go much higherthan he did.

Ellington was ranked as a top 4 RB by quite a few sites that I looked at.

Not too sure about Jefferson in the 7th because it would appear that there was better players available and maybe even better TEs.

 

[Chopper0080]

I also think we learned Keim isn't scarred away from character players or to trade back if he sees multiple players available.

 

[kerouac9]

I also think we learned Keim isn't scarred away from character players or to trade back if he sees multiple players available.

I think we learned from free agency that Keim isn't (as) concerned about character players.

As for the trade back, I think that the Cards have shown the interest and capacity to do that in the past. I think that Keim has a better hold on where guys are likely to go. We would have drafted Minter with our 2nd round pick if there wasn't a deal on the table, IMO, because we liked that player. We were just happy to move back to get better value.

 

[Catfish]

K-9, you are dead-on right about Keim drafting for need this year. That does not make it a certainty that he will do so next year, at least to the extent that he did this year.

It is pretty obvious that with all the rebuilding that was necessary for this team, and the holes left by the loss of our deep secondary in order to create cap space, that this was going to be a needs draft.

I think he did a pretty masterful job in free agency to set our roster up to take advantage of the strengths of this draft. I also believe that he did a pretty fair job of securing solid picks to better our O-line, (by the way it's Watford---Warford is the guy from Kentucky). If he hits on Matthieu, he will have helped our safety position greatly from that hole we were in.

I am convinced that he helped our RB situation greatly with the selection of durable, three down backs who are passionate about pass protecting their QB.

I believe that he had to make choices with the ILB/OLB situation, and that his choice was pretty much decided for him when D-Wash suddenly was suspended for the first quarter of the season. The second round pick may well have gone with a pass rusher, had not the need to find a replacement for Washington popped up.

Another need that I feel he addressed was to find a WR who could stretch the field and take deep double-teams off Fitzgerald. He may have found the guy to do that in Swope with his speed, (and he may also make Floyd actually work hard to keep his place on the roster). If he hits, we win two ways with this pick.

I know that the TE selection was late, but at least he secured a player who can both block AND catch.

I am anxious to see if we received help from the UDFA's with TE, S, or ST's.

Maybe we won't need to draft for need so much next year, (or at least begin to see a pattern of diminishing needs), as this FO and Staff continue to progress from year to year. I think it is too early to determine that they are (any 'one' type) of person at this early juncture in their tenure here. They were pretty much forced into what they did this year, but I also feel that they did very well indeed, given the immensity of the task at hand.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I can't argue with any of that.

Good stuff.

 

[Goldfield]

Maybe but I don't feel we reached for need at all.

I don't think RB was a huge need with Mendenhall and Williams.

I don't think WR was a huge need either.

Trading back was a breath of fresh air.

If we were simply drafting for need I feel another solid TE would of been a top priority.

But I do see your points.

 

[MWOOD92]

Steve Keim will draft players that are able to make an instant impact on the field. I would say a mix between need and BPA, which is how it should be.

 

[Azlen]

I also think he showed that tape has a lot more to do with how they rated players than how they did at the combine.
He's not afraid to take risks as shown in the Mathieu and Swope picks.
He also seemed to put a lot of weight on those that were team captains.

 

[perivolaki]

I think he did a pretty masterful job in free agency to set our roster up to take advantage of the strengths of this draft. I also believe that he did a pretty fair job of securing solid picks to better our O-line, (by the way it's Watford---Warford is the guy from Kentucky). If he hits on Matthieu, he will have helped our safety position greatly from that hole we were in.

This is what I think too.

They identified where the talent was in the draft and where the draft was weak.

Where the draft was weak like quarterback and cornerback they filled mostly with free agents.

I think even in some areas they thought they could fill through the draft they gave free agents one year contracts. They hedged their bet with short contacts so they won't be on the hook if the rookies pan out.

I think they did a masterful job of planning the whole off season.

With a lot of decent free agents still out there it wouldn't surprise if they have a further plan after the draft for picking up one or two.

 

[MadCardDisease]

1. Steve Keim Drafts for Need. Let's not fool around with this anymore. The Cards were drafting OL in the first round, and were drafting ILB with the second pick. While I have little doubt that Kevin Minter was on top of the Cards' Top 120 board, it's pretty easy to manipulate that board when the pick comes on the clock. Keim won't "pass on an elite player to fill a need," but when he says this, we should read it as "I'm not going to take a 4th round WR with a first round pick because we need a wide receiver."

I don't agree with that.

I believe that Cooper was the BPA after the 3 LT's and Dion Jordan were off the board. It just so happens that OL was the strength of the early part of round 1 this year.

The Cards drafted a 2nd OG and RB even though they didn't plan on it. They just couldn't pass up these highly rated players which to me points to taking the BPA on your board.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I think Cooper was a better pick than all but 2 of the picks before us. 1. Joeckel. 2. Fisher.

Everyone else screwed up in some way, shape, or form.

Miami, gave up way to much and he is a poor system fit.
Detroit, Ziggy is a boom or Bust guy. Could be bagging groceries in 3 years.
Philly, Lane Johnson is no better than a #15 pick. He won with "hype" and "measurables". Not tape.
Cleveland, Mingo is another boom or bust guy. No pure moves, but a ton of athletic ability.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Actually Kiem and Arians said in their pressor that they were very fortunate that pretty much everytime their pick came around a player of need was also the BPA. Except for Ellington, they said they weren't planning on taking another RB, but he was just too good to pass on.

 

[Duckjake]

I don't see that this draft is any different than the last 3 drafts.

Who did they reach for in 2010, 2011 and 2012 to fill a need? Dan Williams maybe but he was the 26th selection, was rated the #2 or 3 DT, and as high as 14th overall prospect in the draft and a top 10 pick in some mock drafts.

They got great value in the 4th round in Massie and Acho. Guys like Anthony Sherman and David Carter 5th and 6th round. Potter and Dray in the 7th. Andre Roberts and Housler in the 3rd.

What they couldn't get was a QB or decent offensive line coaching.

Still a solid draft but nothing the Cards haven't done before when it comes to the players involved. Well except for the mini-Badger. Now that's something you'd not see the Cards do in the past.

 

[Goldfield]

I think its pretty fair to say most positions on the team could be considered a need to some extent. What pick wouldn't of looked like a need pick?

 

[Duckjake]

I think its pretty fair to say most positions on the team could be considered a need to some extent. What pick wouldn't of looked like a need pick?

Just off the top of my head CB, WR, DE, RT. If you talk depth only then yes every position would be a need.

The biggest difference to me is that the Cards aren't having to draft guys early who have to start right away to fill holes they created themselves. Like when Davis left and they had no LT. Now they wait until they get a guy they want and then let the incumbent go. Safety being an exception this year.

I remember one year when the only experienced Centers on the team was Larry.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I don't see that this draft is any different than the last 3 drafts.

Who did they reach for in 2010, 2011 and 2012 to fill a need? Dan Williams maybe but he was the 26th selection, was rated the #2 or 3 DT, and as high as 14th overall prospect in the draft and a top 10 pick in some mock drafts.

They got great value in the 4th round in Massie and Acho. Guys like Anthony Sherman and David Carter 5th and 6th round. Potter and Dray in the 7th. Andre Roberts and Housler in the 3rd.

What they couldn't get was a QB or decent offensive line coaching.

Still a solid draft but nothing the Cards haven't done before when it comes to the players involved. Well except for the mini-Badger. Now that's something you'd not see the Cards do in the past.

I would agree that the philosophy doesn't appear to have changed, but this was just a very deep draft and thus there were still good players available in the late rounds. The one difference was that they showed the willingness to move down a few spots to get extra picks and that was especially important this year with the deep draft.

 

[jf-08]

For our team, almost every position is a need. Just sayin'.

 

[kerouac9]

I don't agree with that.

I believe that Cooper was the BPA after the 3 LT's and Dion Jordan were off the board. It just so happens that OL was the strength of the early part of round 1 this year.

The Cards drafted a 2nd OG and RB even though they didn't plan on it. They just couldn't pass up these highly rated players which to me points to taking the BPA on your board.

I dunno. I think that the BPA regardless of need was probably Dee Milliner, and you can make the argument that Star Loutouleilei was, as well. If they both become special players, I'd rather have a special CB than special OG.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I dunno. I think that the BPA regardless of need was probably Dee Milliner, and you can make the argument that Star Loutouleilei was, as well. If they both become special players, I'd rather have a special CB than special OG.

My guess would be that there was other players who graded out similarly to Cooper at the 7th pick, but Cooper won out because he was by far the biggest need. However this doesn't mean they were drafting for need, but that they use a balance of both need and BPA.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I dunno. I think that the BPA regardless of need was probably Dee Milliner, and you can make the argument that Star Loutouleilei was, as well. If they both become special players, I'd rather have a special CB than special OG.

But you have said in the past that we can't afford two great CBs.

And Dee Miliner is not on the same level as Patrick Peterson, who now looks like the best CB prospect to come out in many years.