What the 2013 Draft Teaches Us About Keim

[Goldfield]

When BPA also fills a need that's a great pick. I never want to reach for a need. If you need to trade back to get better value on a player you like great.

The way the OP makes it sound like a negative. Reality is we drafted well and most positions on the team would be considered a need.

 

[kerouac9]

When BPA also fills a need that's a great pick. I never want to reach for a need. If you need to trade back to get better value on a player you like great.

The way the OP makes it sound like a negative. Reality is we drafted well and most positions on the team would be considered a need.

How?

1. Steve Keim Drafts for Need. Let's not fool around with this anymore. The Cards were drafting OL in the first round, and were drafting ILB with the second pick. While I have little doubt that Kevin Minter was on top of the Cards' Top 120 board, it's pretty easy to manipulate that board when the pick comes on the clock. Keim won't "pass on an elite player to fill a need," but when he says this, we should read it as "I'm not going to take a 4th round WR with a first round pick because we need a wide receiver."

 

[Denny Green Fan]

Absolutely. I think Cooper was a need pick, but as Chopper noted, he was one of the top 15 players in the draft.

Look at what Baltimore does, they draft need every year with most of their picks. But they get value with every pick and I think the Cards got very good value with each pick. That's what I think is key to being successful in the draft.

If teams were to draft BPA every pick, they would have extreme holes in key positions. It's just not feasible. Where teams run into to trouble is missing on key, high picks (Cody Brown) that are never even productive.

I was screaming for Michael Johnson with that pick I remember

 

[Monty]

We needed to improve the offensive line. That was a need. We drafted Jonathan Cooper. He filled that need. It was a need pick. How is this confusing?

So much fail in one post that it is hard to know where to begin. by extension of the logic in the above segment of your post I will now analyze the first couple of picks in the draft.
Kansas city needed to improve its offensive line. That was a need. They drafted Eric Fisher. He filled that need. It was a need pick.

Jacksonville needed to improve its offensive line. That was a need. They drafted Luke Joeckel. He filled that need. It was a need pick.

I could go on but I think you get the picture. If you analyse every pick you will see that it filled a need at that club. Very rarely will you see a team pick a player at a position they have no real need at. Need factors into every pick.

You're missing the whole point of what I was trying to say. There is a huge difference in making assumptions based on what makes sense to you and what actually happened in the Cardinals war room or any other war room for that matter.

Your assumptions are based on the virtual draft boards created by media figures like Mayock, Kiper et al. This guys are good at their craft but at the end of the day their draft boards are amateur in nature in comparison to those compiled by the NFL front offices. Time and time again we have seen how different actual FO boards are different to those compiled by the media guys.

Just because you think a player is an overdraft or a reach and therefore is a need pick doesnt make it so. unless you have insight into the teams 120 board and know for certain that they picked a player based on need when they had someone rated higher, you're argument is random speculation without basis makes you're earlier claim that it is unquestionable not just wrong but ridiculous.

There is nothing confusing about your assumption. My contention is that it is pure speculation without any factual basis and therefore highly questionable.

 

[Monty]

Dallas did the same thing when they drafted Travis Frederick. The difference is that when the Cards picked, Cooper was widely considered a top 15 player while, when the Cowboys picked, Frederick was not considered one of the top 40 players in the draft.

Can you not see how seriously you’re thinking here is? Widely considered by whom? The likes of Kiper, Mcshay and Mayock. Though these guys may have some insights into what type of player a team likes or doesn’t like they have zero insight into what any teams actual draft board looks like. Teams are not stupid enough to give ANYONE outside of their front office any idea what their actual draft board looks like.
NFL Draft boards form the basis upon which the success of billion dollar franchises depends. They will guard such valuable information with everything they have in their power. To keep the mass media at bay they will give information and misinformation where in reality they are giving nothing away.
Beyond this teams will place widely ranging values and grades on players. Some teams may have guys rated in their top 5 who don’t even rank in the top 50 of most other teams. Bill Parcells used to say that beyond the first 3 to 5 players the opinions of his scouting team differed so much that it was impossible to get a consensus amongst his own guys let alone the 30 other franchises. It is incredibly naive of you to think we have any real idea what the actual consensus among teams is let alone that there is one

 

[52brandon]

When BPA also fills a need that's a great pick. I never want to reach for a need. If you need to trade back to get better value on a player you like great.

The way the OP makes it sound like a negative. Reality is we drafted well and most positions on the team would be considered a need.

pretty much exactly what I thought as well

How?

It may have been the way you worded it, but I got the same impression. Maybe we all associate drafting for need the equivalence of drafting Levi Brown. And that is most definitely a negative. This draft was deep at OL, we got great value with the pick IMO. I'm surprised it wasn't Warmack, as he was rated higher by most analysts (and higher than our pick), but they evaluate these guys themselves and got who they considered the BPA at that point, he also just happened to fill a huge need. Minter in the 2nd I think illustrates that we really were drafting with both concepts in mind, and were successful in both criteria. Instead of reaching for the guy we needed, we traded back a few spots to where we considered him BPA and picked up another pick that we used to add more depth with a guy that BA is really impressed by from a small school. I thought he was extremely efficient drafting

 

[kerouac9]

Kansas city needed to improve its offensive line. That was a need. They drafted Eric Fisher. He filled that need. It was a need pick.

Jacksonville needed to improve its offensive line. That was a need. They drafted Luke Joeckel. He filled that need. It was a need pick.

See, I actually disagree with both of these premises. I think that both KC and Jacksonville drafted value players that didn't fulfill a (primary) need on their teams.

KC has one of the best 5 OTs in the NFL.
Jackonville has a Top 15 (probably top 10) OT in the NFL in Eugene Monroe.

Both are scheduled to be free agents at the end of 2013, but they're both still on the roster.

Krang has said repeatedly in the past that teams are best off when they draft straight PBA in the first round (maybe two, but I definitely remember he said in Round 1), and then draft for need as necessary later on.

I actually believe that the way Keim operates is the opposite. Draft PBA at a position of need early, then as the draft moves along, give more and more weight to the talent on hand that best fits your system. Thus we drafted 2 RBs on the third day of the draft for a coach who says he prefers not to play RB by committee. Thus we drafted a 2nd guard when we had just drafted one in the first round, had two veterans under contract, and had at least one developmental guard already on the roster.

I have no problem with drafting for need. I have a problem with reaching for need. It doesn't matter, because we're going to have this same dumb conversation 9 months from now when someone points to a Keim quote saying "We're going to take the guy at the top of our 120 board when we come on the clock in the first round."

 

[Monty]

1. Steve Keim Drafts for Need. Let's not fool around with this anymore. The Cards were drafting OL in the first round, and were drafting ILB with the second pick.

That is easy to say now. Did you think that before the draft? an hour before the selection of Minter it seemed ridiculous to you to suggest the Cards might pick an ILB in the second round.

 

[Monty]

See, I actually disagree with both of these premises. I think that both KC and Jacksonville drafted value players that didn't fulfill a (primary) need on their teams.

KC has one of the best 5 OTs in the NFL.
Jacksonville has a Top 15 (probably top 10) OT in the NFL in Eugene Monroe.

Both are scheduled to be free agents at the end of 2013, but they're both still on the roster.

That went over your head didn't it. I was being facetious for the sake of pointing out that the actual premise set forth by Chopper80 was speculative at best.

In terms of my extension of the premise, it does follow the same premise.

Jags had a need at right tackle, they drafted a tackle. That was fulfilling a need as much as the the Cards taking Jonathan Cooper to fill a slot at guard was. Same for Chiefs (who will loose Albert at end of season and more likely before the beginning of the season).

 

[kerouac9]

That is easy to say now. Did you think that before the draft? an hour before the selection of Minter it seemed ridiculous to you to suggest the Cards might pick an ILB in the second round.

Because I didn't think the Cards would draft for need when there might be better values available on the board.

Turns out that Steve Keim drafted for immediate need.

 

[52brandon]

Because I didn't think the Cards would draft for need when there might be better values available on the board.

Turns out that Steve Keim drafted for immediate need.

according to your board at least

 

[Monty]

Because I didn't think the Cards would draft for need when there might be better values available on the board.

Turns out that Steve Keim drafted for immediate need.

How do you know that Jonathan Cooper or Kevin Minter wasnt BPA at the spot they picked him? The simple answer is you dont know. Pure speculation.

As for you're argument that they drafted for need, You seem to flip flop your position on some things an awful lot.

An hour before our 2nd round pick you felt we had no need at ILB arguing the following in response to a post of mine saying the FO might look at ILB in the 2nd round

Why do people keep saying this? For special teams purposes? Jasper Brinkley is under contract for two more seasons, and two-down linebackers are readily available in free agency at a steep discount every year.
.

and now that the FO did pick an ILB you argue that it is because of a need at ILB.

 

[Monty]

according to your board at least

Exactly. People need to see that what they think is BPA and what Keim & Co think is BPA are likely to be very different. Unless we have any real idea what Keim & Co think is BPA any claim that they drafted for need is preposterous.

 

[Dayman]

Didn't Keim push for us to draft Suggs? He could have pushed for other pass rushers, too. Just because we didn't spend a high pick on one this year doesn't mean Keim doesn't know what he's doing with the position.

I also believe that part of the reason Minter was drafted is because he can make the on-field calls on D. Lennon isn't around to wear the headset in his helmet anymore, and Minter was considered to be one of the most cerebral LBs in the draft. That could have given him some extra value.

 

[Monty]

Because I didn't think the Cards would draft for need when there might be better values available on the board.

Turns out that Steve Keim drafted for immediate need.

Seems you were wrong again. Keim himself on what they did

We rank the players 1-120, based on how we feel they fit the Arizona Cardinals. We really do stick with a best-player-available model. Jonathan Cooper was in our top five, regardless of position because we truly feel he has a unique skill set -- tremendous feet, bend, athleticism, can pull and play in space -- to play that position. On top of that, he has rare character and intangibles.

We had first-round grades on Kevin and felt like he was another guy who was a great fit for our scheme.
"When we got to the point where we were picking at 38, we had the opportunity to drop back seven slots and acquire another fourth-round pick for it. It was a little bit of a risk because we were willing to take Kevin at 38.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/c...ards-gm-keim-breaks-down-highly-regarded-haul

 

[kerouac9]

Wrong. Keim himself on BPA

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/c...ards-gm-keim-breaks-down-highly-regarded-haul

That's fine, but drafting for need passes into how you build your 120 board. If you're not confident that you can scout OLBs effectively, you're going to push them down (or take them off) your board because you are more confident in the easier scouts.

IMO Milliner and Cooper have the same ceilings and floors as prospects. If you're drafting straight PBA, you should take Milliner, because it's a more valuable position. We didn't have need at the CB position, so we took the less valuable position because it was a more pressing need.

Same thing later in the draft. I think that the Cards probably preferred Ertz and Cyprien to Minter (in this draft, there were probably 40 players who carried first-round grades), but once they found they couldn't fill that need, they traded back. IMO, Jamie Collins would have been a better get, but as I said here, it doesn't seem to me like this staff has much confidence in their ability to scout rush linebackers, so they took a "sure thing", B- position player.

I have no problem with the picks themselves. I don't know how many times I need to say this. Let's just be honest with ourselves about how it seems this process works. We had four glaring needs going into the draft, and we addressed each of them with our first four picks.

Right, that's probably coincidence.

 

[Monty]

That's fine, but drafting for need passes into how you build your 120 board. If you're not confident that you can scout OLBs effectively, you're going to push them down (or take them off) your board because you are more confident in the easier scouts.

Just becuase you think Keim is a poor scout of OLB's doesnt mean he does it. Are you that deluded that you think Keim will drop players down his board because you think he hasnt been a good scout of OLB's in the past?

IMO Milliner and Cooper have the same ceilings and floors as prospects. If you're drafting straight PBA, you should take Milliner, because it's a more valuable position. We didn't have need at the CB position, so we took the less valuable position because it was a more pressing need.

Wrong again. according to Keim, Cooper was in their top 5. We can probably assume that so were Joeckel, Fisher and Lane Johnson. From everything we heard Milliner wasnt high on the Cards board at all. So as with just about everything else you've posted in this thread, the above is just random pure speculation without any factual basis whatsoever.

IMO, Jamie Collins would have been a better get, but as I said here, it doesn't seem to me like this staff has much confidence in their ability to scout rush linebackers, so they took a "sure thing", B- position player.

Apart from you're own opinion that they arent good at drafting OLB, what do you base this on?

I have no problem with the picks themselves. I don't know how many times I need to say this. Let's just be honest with ourselves about how it seems this process works. We had four glaring needs going into the draft, and we addressed each of them with our first four picks.

Right, that's probably coincidence.

Again easily said AFTER the draft. According to you an hour before the draft we had NO NEED at ILB so that destroys the credibility of this statement. If you look at any teams draft AFTER the picks are made you can make arguments that they all addressed a need.

 

[Goldfield]

That's fine, but drafting for need passes into how you build your 120 board. If you're not confident that you can scout OLBs effectively, you're going to push them down (or take them off) your board because you are more confident in the easier scouts.

IMO Milliner and Cooper have the same ceilings and floors as prospects. If you're drafting straight PBA, you should take Milliner, because it's a more valuable position. We didn't have need at the CB position, so we took the less valuable position because it was a more pressing need.

Same thing later in the draft. I think that the Cards probably preferred Ertz and Cyprien to Minter (in this draft, there were probably 40 players who carried first-round grades), but once they found they couldn't fill that need, they traded back. IMO, Jamie Collins would have been a better get, but as I said here, it doesn't seem to me like this staff has much confidence in their ability to scout rush linebackers, so they took a "sure thing", B- position player.

I have no problem with the picks themselves. I don't know how many times I need to say this. Let's just be honest with ourselves about how it seems this process works. We had four glaring needs going into the draft, and we addressed each of them with our first four picks.

Right, that's probably coincidence.

First four picks? Corner we filled with free agents, same goes for MLB.


WR I wouldnt call a huge need.

Two RBs were not a need. Maybe one.

Your grasping at straws brother.

 

[TJ]

I guess since this thread asks us to list the negatives of the draft, I'll just say my only gripe is we didn't address OT with any of the picks.

That being said, I am very happy with most of the players that were selected. Cooper, Swope, and Honey Badger are my fav three.

 

[kerouac9]

Just becuase you think Keim is a poor scout of OLB's doesnt mean he does it. Are you that deluded that you think Keim will drop players down his board because you think he hasnt been a good scout of OLB's in the past?

Wrong again. according to Keim, Cooper was in their top 5. We can probably assume that so were Joeckel, Fisher and Lane Johnson. From everything we heard Milliner wasnt high on the Cards board at all. So as with just about everything else you've posted in this thread, the above is just random pure speculation without any factual basis whatsoever.

Apart from you're own opinion that they arent good at drafting OLB, what do you base this on?

Again easily said AFTER the draft. According to you an hour before the draft we had NO NEED at ILB so that destroys the credibility of this statement. If you look at any teams draft AFTER the picks are made you can make arguments that they all addressed a need.

Look, if you're just going to deny my conclusions based on the admittedly limited evidence of a single draft, then we have nothing to talk about. The title of this thread is "What the 2013 draft teaches us about Keim." If you believe that the only thing that the 2013 draft taught us about Keim is that he's awesome and everything he does is perfect, more power to you; there's no need for further discussion.

As for the question of where my opinion comes from that we're terrible at drafting OLBs? I'll let the OLBs that we've drafted speak for themselves. Cody Brown, O'Brien Schofield, Sam Acho. Pretty amazing group of value picks there. Dangerous players.

 

[Cardinals.Ken]

The 2013 draft only taught me one thing...that kerouac9 is the Kwisatz Haderach!

 

[Monty]

Look, if you're just going to deny my conclusions based on the admittedly limited evidence of a single draft, then we have nothing to talk about. The title of this thread is "What the 2013 draft teaches us about Keim." If you believe that the only thing that the 2013 draft taught us about Keim is that he's awesome and everything he does is perfect, more power to you; there's no need for further discussion.

Priceless. Way to try and take the discussion in a completely different direction. Where have I even uttered that I think Keim did a great job or anything of the sort. I have not made my feelings on how well I think the Keim and Co draft process went at all. I have only reminded you that you have no idea what the thought process behind the picks were and NEITHER DO I. You're claim that it was based on NEED is entirely unfounded and has no factual basis whatsoever. That is fact.

As for the question of where my opinion comes from that we're terrible at drafting OLBs? I'll let the OLBs that we've drafted speak for themselves. Cody Brown, O'Brien Schofield, Sam Acho. Pretty amazing group of value picks there. Dangerous players.

That's not what I asked. Yet another poor attempt to try and drive the discussion away from your ridiculous arguments. I asked you what let you to believe Keim and Co downgraded pass rushers on their draft broad because as you said THEY dont have any confidence in their abilities to draft pass rushers well? In other words what makes you think they dont have any confidence in their abilities to draft pass rushers, apart from your opinion that they dont. I suspects as with just about everything else you have claimed here there is no factual basis whatsoever behind it and its just pure speculation. If if it is the latter it would be fine except assert it as though its fact.

 

[Monty]

Just for the record I think we did a pretty decent job overall considering the talent available at each spot. Nothing outstanding but I liked a couple of the players we picked and wasnt a big fan of one of our picks.

As with most sensible posters here im in the lets wait and see mode when it comes to the new GM, Coach and the players they've brought it in. It is too early to really comment on much beyond that imo.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Read this thread if you want to know how Keim drafts players:

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb...-breaks-down-highly-regarded-haul-194604.html

 

[Chopper0080]

So much fail in one post that it is hard to know where to begin. by extension of the logic in the above segment of your post I will now analyze the first couple of picks in the draft.
Kansas city needed to improve its offensive line. That was a need. They drafted Eric Fisher. He filled that need. It was a need pick.

Jacksonville needed to improve its offensive line. That was a need. They drafted Luke Joeckel. He filled that need. It was a need pick.

I could go on but I think you get the picture. If you analyse every pick you will see that it filled a need at that club. Very rarely will you see a team pick a player at a position they have no real need at. Need factors into every pick.

You're missing the whole point of what I was trying to say. There is a huge difference in making assumptions based on what makes sense to you and what actually happened in the Cardinals war room or any other war room for that matter.

Your assumptions are based on the virtual draft boards created by media figures like Mayock, Kiper et al. This guys are good at their craft but at the end of the day their draft boards are amateur in nature in comparison to those compiled by the NFL front offices. Time and time again we have seen how different actual FO boards are different to those compiled by the media guys.

Just because you think a player is an overdraft or a reach and therefore is a need pick doesnt make it so. unless you have insight into the teams 120 board and know for certain that they picked a player based on need when they had someone rated higher, you're argument is random speculation without basis makes you're earlier claim that it is unquestionable not just wrong but ridiculous.

There is nothing confusing about your assumption. My contention is that it is pure speculation without any factual basis and therefore highly questionable.

Well, Steve Keim had Cooper graded as a top 5 player per his article with Clark Judge. Daniel Jerimiah who is a former scout for the Ravens had Cooper ranked as a top 15 player. Tony Pauline who has been a huge part of the draft community for years had him ranked in his top 15. Most scouts stated that the only difference between Cooper and Warmack was what scheme the teams would run. Some schemes favored Warmack and others Cooper. Warmack was considered universally a top 10 talent. Yes, and the other draftniks like Kiper, McShay, and Mayock had him ranked in the the top 15 as well.

I have said this before, and I will say it again. I don't base my opinions off one source like Mayock or Kiper. I actually watch players throughout the college football year, then review what several different people in the draft and football industry say about them, and then look to confirm that through game clips on youtube. You may say I don't know because I am not in the warroom, but I know what I have seen and I have compared that to what others say as well.

Just what this board needs. Another poster whose arguments are based on the premise that nobody on the message board knows anything because we aren't working in professional football.