Mitch
Crawled Through 5 FB Fields
Many people are speculating what the Cardinals are thinking, particularly with what they plan to do with the #5 pick.
Here's what I think...for right or for wrong:
QB:
They not only won't take Newton or Gabbert---there's a better than 50/50 chance---that because they are focusing on other needs---they will not take a QB at all in this draft.
Here's why:
1. As they've said all along, they plan to acquire a veteran starter.
2. They like John Skelton's prospects in 2-3 years.
3. They like Richard Bartel and feel fine about him being in the mix for #2 or #3.
4. They haven't ruled out Max Hall---although the odds are that Whiz may break his habit of not selecting a QB to the PS in favor of keeping Hall in the fold. One thing is for sure---Hall is going to put up a heckuva fight. Whiz wants "gym rat" QBs---well, Hall is the epitome of one.
CB:
Patrick Peterson is, without question, one of their top three targets---as much for his versatility as his supreme athleticism. Whiz loves versatile players---and you just know Whiz will have an offensive package for PP7 that will feature slip screens, pitch sweeps in the red zone, go patterns up the sidelines (which he's tried to do with DRC...but DRC lacks the hunger for that role).
One thing that has raised some doubt in me about PP7 is that he has announced that he does not wish to run back kickoffs---he feels it will "unnecessarily expose him" to hits and that he will be better off focusing on punt returns. This bothers me and it bothers me more than just a little. He's already so good that he can call the shot on this one? At the money he is going to make, he should offer to do whatever the teams want and need him to do. He's a rookie for crying out loud.
Yeah, a kick returner won't be used as much because of the new kickoff rule...but there still wil be plenty of returns, and with a player as explosive as Peterson you wouldn't mind him fielding the kickoff 5 yards into the end zone and running it out. Any time you can put him in an open field situation with the ball, you do it.
As for the CB position itself, I believe the Cardinals have very good reason to believe they are going to be able to sign UFA Ike Taylor---so adding PP7 would be a nice luxury for sure, but not one of the top priorities.
OLB/DE:
Speaking of top priorities...this is where the focus should be in the first round because there are several very good edge rushers to choose from, and one would be naive to think the real good ones will slide to #38...particularly THIS year, because pass rushers are the easiest to assimilate into a position---as in, "here, you line up on the edge to the outside shoulder of the tackle and explode off the edge."
Von Miller HAS to be one of the Cardinals' three targets---or maybe Peter King already concedes that Miller will be off the board at #5, in which case, I believe he is correct. The thing about Miller is, however...the DC that gets him would be very smart to move him around a defense like a SS or monster man. Miller is often at his best when he can take a straight line to the QB. What I am saying is...if his DC simply lines Miller up at RDE...Miller will be much easier to block and be accounted for...and will be engulfed and dominated more often than not.
You see this is why I want Dontay Moch (in Rd. 3) so much...because he is a straight line dynamo who you can move a round a defense and wreak havoc with. But, as with Miller, Moch will have a much harder time impacting the game in a traditional RDE or WOLB role.
But---this is why I love players in this draft like Ryan Kerrigan and Jabaal Sheard---because they have the bull rush and the quicks to lock down a side---in fact, I noticed that Kerrigan in particular is even more dynamic on the strong side at LDE. In St. Louis, Chris Long plays the strong side and he's exceptionally good at it. This is what we need: a Chris Long type high motor, hard charging anchor rusher.
Robert Quinn?
The talent is undeniable. He has the burst and when he gets the edge on you he contorts his body like a speed skater on a sharp turn and he maintains that position until the precise moment when he can slide and slither his way to the QB.
But...when you watch him in other aspects of his game he is as raw as they come...one of the main things is, when flow comes his way, he doesn't attack the flow---if anything he freezes---and then he crouches (like a wrestler who thinks his opponent is trying to shoot for his legs) and does all he can to prevent the blocker from getting to his legs, which further freezes him and he often is not able to rip his way through to the ball---and then, on the rare occasions where he tries to recover, he's strictly an arm tackler (which BTW is habit that very good wrestlers like Quinn was---two time State Champion---have a hard time correcting).
When Kerrigan tackles you he goes full bore---totally fundamental---never too high---which is why he set and NCAA record for forced fumbles because he tackles at ball level and he bends and leads with his shoulder.
Besides...Quinn does not deserve to be a top ten pick. On talent, sure. But on character, no. Did anyone see his interview at the combine? Whe asked about his violations at UNC...Quinn hemmed and hawed and said that at the time he didn't know that taking some jewelry was wrong. Just as he had a whole football season off to prepare himself for the Combine---he had that whole time to prepare his answers to questions like this---and yet he still didn't come clean.
I have the Cardinals taking Quinn, as you may know, from my latest What the Cardinals Will Likely Do Mock V. 11...and the reason is, it would be typical of the Cardinals to draft Quinn based on talent alone---that's often what the Cardinals do---they ignore other key intangibles and strictly focus on talent, with the thinking that they could strike oil when they coach the player up.
Well, let me ask you...have they struck oil with these high draft picks?
T Levi Brown (Rd. 1)---they still don't know what to do with him, do they?
DT Alan Branch (Rd. 2)---as they say on ESPN, "C'mon MAN!"
DRC (Rd. 1)---great talent, but a space cadet.
Beanie Wells (Rd. 1)---again great talent, but he's a FIRST ROUND RB WHO CANNOT START ON THIS TEAM.
Cody Brown (Rd. 2)---who? We hardly knew ye...
My point is...the Cardinals will likely do it again...they will draft on talent alone...and believe they will be able to coach the kid up. If that';s the case, we have to hope they do get lucky one of these times.
Meanwhile a leader like Kerrigan will get ignored despite these numbers and an All-Big Ten 1st Teamer the past two years and Big Ten Defensive Player fo the Year this year:
25.5 sacks
44.5 tackles for loss
12 forced fumbles
WR:
This is one area the Cardinals seem to get right...and not only is A.J. Green one of their top 4 targets at #5 (and should be---), do not rule out Julio Jones either. In fact, one can make an excellent case that Jones with his 4.3 speed is a better compliment to Fitz than Green (who is a lot like Fitz---not a great separator, but knows how to use his body well and has great hands).
The rap on Jones is the 8 drops he had last year...sure...that's not great by any stretch, but hey...he still had 78 catches for 1,113 yards and 9 TDs...mostly WITH A BROKEN HAND! Have you ever seen this kid run a WR hitch pattern? Go check out his late TD versus PP7 and LSU...he catches the ball and is shot out of a cannon---and runs a blistering 60 yard path to the end zone. The Cardinals have needed a deep threat WR for years now...and this kid brings it big-time. Plus, if he goes to Fitz's camp---he'll get locked in on catching the pigskin. Fitz will coach him up.
How Does the Rest of the Draft Shape Up?
You always have to consider this...
I believe that there will be a run of pass rushers in the first round of this draft that---in essence---will shut the Cardinals out of the very good ones at #38.
The only thing that encourages me is that I believe Friday night will be QB derby with the 33-36 picks...which means that maybe, a Brooks Reed or a Jabaal Sheard sneaks through to #38. Sheard is a better fit, imo... because he is a bull rusher who can anchor the strong side. But...hey...other teams will recognize this as well---and the way our drafts go, Philly will trade into the #37 pick and take Sheard---you just know it.
This is why---I want one of the very good pass rushers in the first round---even if it means giving up next year's #1 at pick #28 or #33 (Patriots always listen to offers that involve future first rounders).
The other thing is this:
I believe that the draft sets up extremely well for taking a 34 DE or NT prospect at #38...
It is quite possible that the following will be on the board at that time:
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa. Erb's palsey---not that big a deal---but the lack of production senior year might be---but the talent is excellent. He would look awesome in Cardinal red.
Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor. Immense talent and good kid with a lot to prove and the ability to do it. Played great at the Senior Bowl.
Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio St. (someone please hold Buckeye back---he's going to burst through the computer to take this under-rated talent). This is MY guy. I want him BAD, He's a tremendous talent---and at #38 would be an enormous steal.
Muhammed Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple. Eric Swann Part II? Only this kid will play with a broken pinky.
Drake Nevis, DE/DT, LSU. Explosive talent---lacks ideal height. Who cares---this kid brings it.
Stephen Paea, NT, Oregon St. If John Lott has a say---this kid who set the reps at 225 record (tied) at the Combine will be a Cardinal on Friday night. A total warrior inside and can play some at 34 DE too. Want to finally stop the run? Put this kid in there.
Jarvis Jenkins, DT/DE, Clemson. Big man with a burst and light feet.
Marvin Austin, DT/DE, North Carolina. Talk about talent---here it's worth the risk, because it's not in the first round.
If the Cardinals do not draft one of the edge rushers in round one---they ought to take the inside player here---which makes even more unlikely that they can get a good immediate impact edge rusher later.
This is what happens to the Cardinals in drafts as it did when they reached for Cody Brown as a last resort to drafting Beanie Wells in round one, when clearly the need at edge rusher was much greater.
Here's what I think...for right or for wrong:
QB:
They not only won't take Newton or Gabbert---there's a better than 50/50 chance---that because they are focusing on other needs---they will not take a QB at all in this draft.
Here's why:
1. As they've said all along, they plan to acquire a veteran starter.
2. They like John Skelton's prospects in 2-3 years.
3. They like Richard Bartel and feel fine about him being in the mix for #2 or #3.
4. They haven't ruled out Max Hall---although the odds are that Whiz may break his habit of not selecting a QB to the PS in favor of keeping Hall in the fold. One thing is for sure---Hall is going to put up a heckuva fight. Whiz wants "gym rat" QBs---well, Hall is the epitome of one.
CB:
Patrick Peterson is, without question, one of their top three targets---as much for his versatility as his supreme athleticism. Whiz loves versatile players---and you just know Whiz will have an offensive package for PP7 that will feature slip screens, pitch sweeps in the red zone, go patterns up the sidelines (which he's tried to do with DRC...but DRC lacks the hunger for that role).
One thing that has raised some doubt in me about PP7 is that he has announced that he does not wish to run back kickoffs---he feels it will "unnecessarily expose him" to hits and that he will be better off focusing on punt returns. This bothers me and it bothers me more than just a little. He's already so good that he can call the shot on this one? At the money he is going to make, he should offer to do whatever the teams want and need him to do. He's a rookie for crying out loud.
Yeah, a kick returner won't be used as much because of the new kickoff rule...but there still wil be plenty of returns, and with a player as explosive as Peterson you wouldn't mind him fielding the kickoff 5 yards into the end zone and running it out. Any time you can put him in an open field situation with the ball, you do it.
As for the CB position itself, I believe the Cardinals have very good reason to believe they are going to be able to sign UFA Ike Taylor---so adding PP7 would be a nice luxury for sure, but not one of the top priorities.
OLB/DE:
Speaking of top priorities...this is where the focus should be in the first round because there are several very good edge rushers to choose from, and one would be naive to think the real good ones will slide to #38...particularly THIS year, because pass rushers are the easiest to assimilate into a position---as in, "here, you line up on the edge to the outside shoulder of the tackle and explode off the edge."
Von Miller HAS to be one of the Cardinals' three targets---or maybe Peter King already concedes that Miller will be off the board at #5, in which case, I believe he is correct. The thing about Miller is, however...the DC that gets him would be very smart to move him around a defense like a SS or monster man. Miller is often at his best when he can take a straight line to the QB. What I am saying is...if his DC simply lines Miller up at RDE...Miller will be much easier to block and be accounted for...and will be engulfed and dominated more often than not.
You see this is why I want Dontay Moch (in Rd. 3) so much...because he is a straight line dynamo who you can move a round a defense and wreak havoc with. But, as with Miller, Moch will have a much harder time impacting the game in a traditional RDE or WOLB role.
But---this is why I love players in this draft like Ryan Kerrigan and Jabaal Sheard---because they have the bull rush and the quicks to lock down a side---in fact, I noticed that Kerrigan in particular is even more dynamic on the strong side at LDE. In St. Louis, Chris Long plays the strong side and he's exceptionally good at it. This is what we need: a Chris Long type high motor, hard charging anchor rusher.
Robert Quinn?
The talent is undeniable. He has the burst and when he gets the edge on you he contorts his body like a speed skater on a sharp turn and he maintains that position until the precise moment when he can slide and slither his way to the QB.
But...when you watch him in other aspects of his game he is as raw as they come...one of the main things is, when flow comes his way, he doesn't attack the flow---if anything he freezes---and then he crouches (like a wrestler who thinks his opponent is trying to shoot for his legs) and does all he can to prevent the blocker from getting to his legs, which further freezes him and he often is not able to rip his way through to the ball---and then, on the rare occasions where he tries to recover, he's strictly an arm tackler (which BTW is habit that very good wrestlers like Quinn was---two time State Champion---have a hard time correcting).
When Kerrigan tackles you he goes full bore---totally fundamental---never too high---which is why he set and NCAA record for forced fumbles because he tackles at ball level and he bends and leads with his shoulder.
Besides...Quinn does not deserve to be a top ten pick. On talent, sure. But on character, no. Did anyone see his interview at the combine? Whe asked about his violations at UNC...Quinn hemmed and hawed and said that at the time he didn't know that taking some jewelry was wrong. Just as he had a whole football season off to prepare himself for the Combine---he had that whole time to prepare his answers to questions like this---and yet he still didn't come clean.
I have the Cardinals taking Quinn, as you may know, from my latest What the Cardinals Will Likely Do Mock V. 11...and the reason is, it would be typical of the Cardinals to draft Quinn based on talent alone---that's often what the Cardinals do---they ignore other key intangibles and strictly focus on talent, with the thinking that they could strike oil when they coach the player up.
Well, let me ask you...have they struck oil with these high draft picks?
T Levi Brown (Rd. 1)---they still don't know what to do with him, do they?
DT Alan Branch (Rd. 2)---as they say on ESPN, "C'mon MAN!"
DRC (Rd. 1)---great talent, but a space cadet.
Beanie Wells (Rd. 1)---again great talent, but he's a FIRST ROUND RB WHO CANNOT START ON THIS TEAM.
Cody Brown (Rd. 2)---who? We hardly knew ye...
My point is...the Cardinals will likely do it again...they will draft on talent alone...and believe they will be able to coach the kid up. If that';s the case, we have to hope they do get lucky one of these times.
Meanwhile a leader like Kerrigan will get ignored despite these numbers and an All-Big Ten 1st Teamer the past two years and Big Ten Defensive Player fo the Year this year:
25.5 sacks
44.5 tackles for loss
12 forced fumbles
WR:
This is one area the Cardinals seem to get right...and not only is A.J. Green one of their top 4 targets at #5 (and should be---), do not rule out Julio Jones either. In fact, one can make an excellent case that Jones with his 4.3 speed is a better compliment to Fitz than Green (who is a lot like Fitz---not a great separator, but knows how to use his body well and has great hands).
The rap on Jones is the 8 drops he had last year...sure...that's not great by any stretch, but hey...he still had 78 catches for 1,113 yards and 9 TDs...mostly WITH A BROKEN HAND! Have you ever seen this kid run a WR hitch pattern? Go check out his late TD versus PP7 and LSU...he catches the ball and is shot out of a cannon---and runs a blistering 60 yard path to the end zone. The Cardinals have needed a deep threat WR for years now...and this kid brings it big-time. Plus, if he goes to Fitz's camp---he'll get locked in on catching the pigskin. Fitz will coach him up.
How Does the Rest of the Draft Shape Up?
You always have to consider this...
I believe that there will be a run of pass rushers in the first round of this draft that---in essence---will shut the Cardinals out of the very good ones at #38.
The only thing that encourages me is that I believe Friday night will be QB derby with the 33-36 picks...which means that maybe, a Brooks Reed or a Jabaal Sheard sneaks through to #38. Sheard is a better fit, imo... because he is a bull rusher who can anchor the strong side. But...hey...other teams will recognize this as well---and the way our drafts go, Philly will trade into the #37 pick and take Sheard---you just know it.
This is why---I want one of the very good pass rushers in the first round---even if it means giving up next year's #1 at pick #28 or #33 (Patriots always listen to offers that involve future first rounders).
The other thing is this:
I believe that the draft sets up extremely well for taking a 34 DE or NT prospect at #38...
It is quite possible that the following will be on the board at that time:
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa. Erb's palsey---not that big a deal---but the lack of production senior year might be---but the talent is excellent. He would look awesome in Cardinal red.
Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor. Immense talent and good kid with a lot to prove and the ability to do it. Played great at the Senior Bowl.
Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio St. (someone please hold Buckeye back---he's going to burst through the computer to take this under-rated talent). This is MY guy. I want him BAD, He's a tremendous talent---and at #38 would be an enormous steal.
Muhammed Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple. Eric Swann Part II? Only this kid will play with a broken pinky.
Drake Nevis, DE/DT, LSU. Explosive talent---lacks ideal height. Who cares---this kid brings it.
Stephen Paea, NT, Oregon St. If John Lott has a say---this kid who set the reps at 225 record (tied) at the Combine will be a Cardinal on Friday night. A total warrior inside and can play some at 34 DE too. Want to finally stop the run? Put this kid in there.
Jarvis Jenkins, DT/DE, Clemson. Big man with a burst and light feet.
Marvin Austin, DT/DE, North Carolina. Talk about talent---here it's worth the risk, because it's not in the first round.
If the Cardinals do not draft one of the edge rushers in round one---they ought to take the inside player here---which makes even more unlikely that they can get a good immediate impact edge rusher later.
This is what happens to the Cardinals in drafts as it did when they reached for Cody Brown as a last resort to drafting Beanie Wells in round one, when clearly the need at edge rusher was much greater.
