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The bad news? Just about everyone in the national-baseball world thinks the Chicago Cubs will win the National League Central in 2025 under second-year skipper Craig Counsell and the Milwaukee Brewers will be lucky to land a third straight playoff appearance.
The good news? They all thought similar things last year, and then the Brewers won 93 games and the NL Central.
There seems to be a consensus this year that the Cubs are the best team in the division, but it's close, and everyone seems to pick against the Brewers, knowing they do so at their own peril.
Here's a summary of what's being written the day before the start of the 2025 Major League Baseball season:
The Brewers received eight votes out of 28 to win the Central, with the Cubs receiving 15.
Jeff Passan explained why he picked Milwaukee: "Because the difference between the two talentwise is pretty negligible and I like teams that have won recently. It's true the Brewers did not spend any money this winter and were raided in free agency. It's also true that Jackson Chourio is on the verge of becoming one of the best players in baseball and the Brewers' farm system consistently produces quality big leaguers — enough to send them to the postseason five times in the past six full seasons. The Cubs are better on paper, sure, but they haven't played as much postseason baseball recently. That said, would it surprise me if the Cubs won the division? Not at all, because it's the NL Central, and just about anything can happen."
MLB.com went with the Cubs but said it was the closest vote count in any of the six divisions.
"For Chicago to claim its first full-season NL Central crown since 2017, it will need a big season from outfielder Kyle Tucker. The Cubs traded for Tucker in their splashiest move of the offseason after he hit 23 homers and logged a .993 OPS in just 78 games last with the Astros. The 28-year-old is part of a trio — along with Ian Happ and potential breakout star Pete Crow-Armstrong — that could make up one of baseball's most productive outfields.
Longtime baseball writer Keith Law sees the Brewers as a near-miss to the Cubs, but not without some reservation.
"I’ll predict the Brewers miss the playoffs, and they’ll probably make the playoffs, again," Law wrote. "In my defense, teams that rely on … uh, defense are a little harder to predict, at least in my experience of making errant predictions. I’m thrilled that they’re putting Joey Ortiz, a plus defender at short, at his natural position, to take Willy Adames’ spot; I’m less thrilled that they may be punting on third base. I’m more concerned about the rotation than the lineup, though; they’ve pulled some good starters out of some very small hats in recent years, and while I believe they’re good at getting the most out of certain types of starters, their margin for error keeps shrinking."
Eno Sarris, meanwhile, predicted good things for Joey Ortiz, envisioning a 20/20 season and .260 batting average. Sarris cited last year's neck injury as a reason for Ortiz dropping off after a red-hot start.
"His exit velocity average was down almost two ticks after the injury," Sarris wrote. "So after he suffered through 11 hitless postseason at-bats, he went to work on the neck. Rest, rehab, strengthening the muscles around it, the whole deal. He feels good this spring and is slugging .698, and though those are just spring results, new research suggests that spring results are about 75 percent as valuable as regular-season results when it comes to predicting the future. If the projection here doesn’t seem bold, there’s only one other Brewers shortstop who’s ever hit those benchmarks: Robin Yount."
More: Will the Brewers top 90 wins again and make the playoffs? Our predictions for the 2025 season
More: Milwaukee Brewers' American Family Field makes top 10 list for Best Baseball Stadium Food: USA Today's 10Best Readers' Choice Awards
From Mike Axisa: "You'd think I would have learned to stop betting against the Brewers by now, but nope. Consider this a good omen, Brewers fans. I like the Cubs more on paper, especially now that they have a bona fide star in Kyle Tucker. He's the kind of player who can change the balance of power in a division race."
CBS ranked the Brewers 17th across baseball.
"They already showed last year for months they could withstand the loss of Devin Williams, so now it's a matter of covering up the lost production from Willy Adames," the site wrote. "They'll find a way and contend. That's what they do."
From Anthony Dabbundo: "The Brewers bullpen appears unreliable and lacks depth now without Devin Williams. The rotation’s success relies heavily on Brandon Woodruff’s health after a major injury sidelined him for all of 2024. Jackson Chourio could potentially become a superstar in his second year, or other young players like Brice Turang or Sal Frelick could break out to compensate for the loss of Willy Adames to free agency. In 2024, Milwaukee had the third youngest offensive lineup in the league. That is a reason for optimism and improvement in 2025."
From Matt Eddy: "The Brewers always seem to outpace their projections. Now, after losing free agent Willy Adames and trading Devin Williams, they face their latest challenge. William Contreras is arguably the best young catcher in baseball, Freddy Peralta is a strong No. 1 starter and Jackson Chourio is poised for stardom. The rest of the roster lacks marquee names but is well-rounded, with strong defenders at skill positions."
Two of the five experts polled by Yahoo! Sports actually did pick the Brewers to win the Central. Hats off to Jake Mintz and Jason Owens.
None of the other three, who all picked the Cubs, selected the Brewers as one of the wild-cards.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Will Milwaukee Brewers win NL Central? What national writers predict
Continue reading...
The good news? They all thought similar things last year, and then the Brewers won 93 games and the NL Central.
There seems to be a consensus this year that the Cubs are the best team in the division, but it's close, and everyone seems to pick against the Brewers, knowing they do so at their own peril.
Here's a summary of what's being written the day before the start of the 2025 Major League Baseball season:
ESPN's panel largely picks the Cubs, though not everyone, including Jeff Passan
The Brewers received eight votes out of 28 to win the Central, with the Cubs receiving 15.
Jeff Passan explained why he picked Milwaukee: "Because the difference between the two talentwise is pretty negligible and I like teams that have won recently. It's true the Brewers did not spend any money this winter and were raided in free agency. It's also true that Jackson Chourio is on the verge of becoming one of the best players in baseball and the Brewers' farm system consistently produces quality big leaguers — enough to send them to the postseason five times in the past six full seasons. The Cubs are better on paper, sure, but they haven't played as much postseason baseball recently. That said, would it surprise me if the Cubs won the division? Not at all, because it's the NL Central, and just about anything can happen."
MLB.com also picks the Cubs, but it was apparently close
MLB.com went with the Cubs but said it was the closest vote count in any of the six divisions.
"For Chicago to claim its first full-season NL Central crown since 2017, it will need a big season from outfielder Kyle Tucker. The Cubs traded for Tucker in their splashiest move of the offseason after he hit 23 homers and logged a .993 OPS in just 78 games last with the Astros. The 28-year-old is part of a trio — along with Ian Happ and potential breakout star Pete Crow-Armstrong — that could make up one of baseball's most productive outfields.
The Athletic's Keith Law: '... the margin for error keeps shrinking'
Longtime baseball writer Keith Law sees the Brewers as a near-miss to the Cubs, but not without some reservation.
"I’ll predict the Brewers miss the playoffs, and they’ll probably make the playoffs, again," Law wrote. "In my defense, teams that rely on … uh, defense are a little harder to predict, at least in my experience of making errant predictions. I’m thrilled that they’re putting Joey Ortiz, a plus defender at short, at his natural position, to take Willy Adames’ spot; I’m less thrilled that they may be punting on third base. I’m more concerned about the rotation than the lineup, though; they’ve pulled some good starters out of some very small hats in recent years, and while I believe they’re good at getting the most out of certain types of starters, their margin for error keeps shrinking."
Eno Sarris, meanwhile, predicted good things for Joey Ortiz, envisioning a 20/20 season and .260 batting average. Sarris cited last year's neck injury as a reason for Ortiz dropping off after a red-hot start.
"His exit velocity average was down almost two ticks after the injury," Sarris wrote. "So after he suffered through 11 hitless postseason at-bats, he went to work on the neck. Rest, rehab, strengthening the muscles around it, the whole deal. He feels good this spring and is slugging .698, and though those are just spring results, new research suggests that spring results are about 75 percent as valuable as regular-season results when it comes to predicting the future. If the projection here doesn’t seem bold, there’s only one other Brewers shortstop who’s ever hit those benchmarks: Robin Yount."
More: Will the Brewers top 90 wins again and make the playoffs? Our predictions for the 2025 season
More: Milwaukee Brewers' American Family Field makes top 10 list for Best Baseball Stadium Food: USA Today's 10Best Readers' Choice Awards
CBS Sports polled five experts, and they all placed the Brewers second behind the Cubs
From Mike Axisa: "You'd think I would have learned to stop betting against the Brewers by now, but nope. Consider this a good omen, Brewers fans. I like the Cubs more on paper, especially now that they have a bona fide star in Kyle Tucker. He's the kind of player who can change the balance of power in a division race."
CBS ranked the Brewers 17th across baseball.
"They already showed last year for months they could withstand the loss of Devin Williams, so now it's a matter of covering up the lost production from Willy Adames," the site wrote. "They'll find a way and contend. That's what they do."
The Ringer ranked the Brewers 14th overall in MLB, one spot behind the Cubs
From Anthony Dabbundo: "The Brewers bullpen appears unreliable and lacks depth now without Devin Williams. The rotation’s success relies heavily on Brandon Woodruff’s health after a major injury sidelined him for all of 2024. Jackson Chourio could potentially become a superstar in his second year, or other young players like Brice Turang or Sal Frelick could break out to compensate for the loss of Willy Adames to free agency. In 2024, Milwaukee had the third youngest offensive lineup in the league. That is a reason for optimism and improvement in 2025."
Baseball America also ranks the Brewers 14th overall; the Cubs are 10th
From Matt Eddy: "The Brewers always seem to outpace their projections. Now, after losing free agent Willy Adames and trading Devin Williams, they face their latest challenge. William Contreras is arguably the best young catcher in baseball, Freddy Peralta is a strong No. 1 starter and Jackson Chourio is poised for stardom. The rest of the roster lacks marquee names but is well-rounded, with strong defenders at skill positions."
Hey, look, we found someone picking the Brewers
Two of the five experts polled by Yahoo! Sports actually did pick the Brewers to win the Central. Hats off to Jake Mintz and Jason Owens.
None of the other three, who all picked the Cubs, selected the Brewers as one of the wild-cards.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Will Milwaukee Brewers win NL Central? What national writers predict
Continue reading...
