Who will lead the Suns in scoring?

[Griffin]

Who will be the Suns' leading scorer this coming season? (Must play at least 50% of games to qualify). Also try to predict his scoring average.

I think this is a first year in quite some time where this is really had to predict. Even last two years without Amare, either Nash or Gortat would seem like a good candidate. But this year Gortat is without his pick-and-roll buddy and there are a bunch of new players, and it's hard to know what to expect from them. We don't even know who will start at this point.

Here's a little trivia: guess (without looking it up) who was the Suns' second leading scorer last year?

 

[BC867]

Here's a little trivia: guess (without looking it up) who was the Suns' second leading scorer last year?

I would guess Duds. (Will that be a D'backs trivia ding or a buzz? Unlike their color commentators, I don't look it up before guessing.)

Edit: OK, now I did look it up. It was Dudley, behind Gortat and ahead of Nash.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Dragic is the most likely. He will be the undisputed starter and will have the ball in his hands. Outside of Gortat, everything else is a crap shoot.

 

[95pro]

if our starting pg is scoring the most points then we are in trouble.

 

[elindholm]

No one on the roster is much of a passer (except Dragic, sort of), has a post game (except Scola, sort of), or figures to get to the line often (except, uh, no one), so the leading scorer will probably be a wing who can create his own shot. I'll go with Beasley.

 

[Griffin]

I would guess Duds. (Will that be a D'backs trivia ding or a buzz? Unlike their color commentators, I don't look it up before guessing.)

Edit: OK, now I did look it up. It was Dudley, behind Gortat and ahead of Nash.

Yeah, which is really indicative of the lack of scorers on this team since Amare's departure. Brown was 4th.

I'm going to vote for Scola and predict 17 ppg.

 

[BC867]

Yeah, which is really indicative of the lack of scorers on this team since Amare's departure. Brown was 4th.

Well, Dudley and Brown were our "shooting" guards last season.

If your power guys (C or PF) lead in scoring, it would be a plus, unless it takes away from their responsibilities of setting picks and rebounding in the post.

Last season, Gortat led the Suns in both scoring and rebounding (15.4/10.0), which is why I said that he is the closest thing to a franchise player that we have. His team-leading scoring did not come at the expense of his other responsibilities.

And, as 95pro said, "if our starting pg is scoring the most points then we are in trouble.

So it is really not surprising that Dudley and Brown were both in our top 4 in scoring last season, as Wings are supposed to do.

 

[Griffin]

So it is really not surprising that Dudley and Brown were both in our top 4 in scoring last season, as Wings are supposed to do.

No, the more surprising part is that our second leading scorer averaged 12.7 ppg which is what you might expect from Dudley (in fact, that was a career high for him), but not from a team's second leading scorer, especially when the team's leading scorer averages just over 15 ppg. If Dudley could put up 20 ppg like many wings do, then you would expect to see him up there, but at 12.7?

 

[JCSunsfan]

Having the starting pg lead in scoring is not the end of the world. Many good teams had that situation from the Pistons with Thomas through the Bulls with Rose.

If he is a ball stopper, that's another thing altogether.

 

[SirStefan32]

Having the starting pg lead in scoring is not the end of the world. Many good teams had that situation from the Pistons with Thomas through the Bulls with Rose.

If he is a ball stopper, that's another thing altogether.

Exactly. We'll be in all sorts of troubles for the next year or two, but Dragic leading the team in scoring isn't gonna be anywhere near the top of the list of issues/ trouble.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Here's a little trivia: guess (without looking it up) who was the Suns' second leading scorer last year?

Dudley?

 

[Mainstreet]

I voted for Gortat to be the Suns leading scorer this coming season primarily because I thought he would put up consistent points.

 

[Errntknght]

I don't recall who was our second leading scorer last year but I do remember that it was quite balanced scoring overall. If I remember correctly Nash, Duds, Frye, Hill and Brown were all pretty close together after Marcin. If you looked at points per 48 there were several others that were bunched near them - warrick, redd, lopez, telfair and morris. Basically, everyone but Price and Childress. Believe it or not on a per minute basis, Redd was our highest scorer... that I remember because it was such a surprise.

I expect we'll see much the same thing in this coming year. I think Dragic is likely to be our top scorer though he might click with Gortat and make him our top guy. The thing is, I don't think it much matters who it is unless its Beasley. If Beas plays team ball well enough to get lots of playing time that bodes well for the team.

 

[Budden]

I could actually see Shannon Brown being the team's leading scorer, provided he improves markedly this offseason. If you think about it, Shannon Brown really seemed to be hurt by lock-outitis in the first quarter of last year, but he really came around as the season progressed. He can't exactly create his own shot, but he seems to be able to make contested 18-20-foot jumpers at a reasonable clip, especially on the "slow-break." Because Dragic is a willing passer and is pretty good at pitching the ball ahead to wing guys. I can definitely envision Brown getting like 8-10 points per game by receiving a pass at around the 27-foot range, taking one or two slow dribbles, and stopping just inside the three-point line for a high-arcing jumper. If he improves his ball handling just a bit - to the point where he can penetrate from the wing for a layup - then I wouldn't be surprised if he averages right around 16 points per game.

Realistically, this team is going to have a bunch of leading scorers over the course of the season. I could see Gortat and Scola scoring well in the first 1/3 of the season, but teams will make a more concerted effort to be more physical with those guys and the "worn-out" Gortat will emerge.

I'm interested to see who will fall down more times this season: Scola likes to flop on defense, and he LOVES to pump fake from free-throw line extended, go by his defender and stumble toward the hoop with like a blind guy with intermittent vertigo; and Gortat will undoubtedly perform his signature "get-knocked-down-by-a-shooting-guard-and-tuck-into-a-somersault" routine at least twice per game.

 

[mojorizen7]

No one on the roster is much of a passer (except Dragic, sort of), has a post game (except Scola, sort of), or figures to get to the line often (except, uh, no one), so the leading scorer will probably be a wing who can create his own shot. I'll go with Beasley.

I disagree with this. Dragic will get to the line IMO.

By comparison last season's stats:

Russell Westrbrook
66 games with 66 starts
413 free throw attempts = 6.2 per game
82%

Nash
62 gms with 62 starts
142 free throw attempts = 2.2 per game
89%

Dragic
66 gms with only 28 starts
190 free throw attempts = 2.8 per game
80%

Note the starts. He was better than Nash last season at getting to the line(despite the limited role).
I forsee a very aggressive Dragic offensively this season,and he clearly has the athleticism to draw fouls at the rim. He's not going to live on the FT line like a Westbrook does....but i could see those attempts/gm jump to 4.5 easily,which is a nice number.

 

[elindholm]

I disagree with this. Dragic will get to the line IMO.

By comparison last season's stats:

Russell Westrbrook

Nash

Dragic

I'm at a loss to understand why you included Westbrook in this comparison.

Note the starts. He was better than Nash last season at getting to the line(despite the limited role).

Dragic historically averages about 5 FTA per 48 minutes; that number has been fairly consistent throughout his career. Nash's career average is 4.3, so yes, Dragic is a little better at getting to the line than Nash is. But those are pretty piddling rates for both players.

but i could see those attempts/gm jump to 4.5 easily,which is a nice number.

4.0 wouldn't surprise me, but I think 4.5 is a reach. In any case, if the best guy on your team at getting to the line is taking only 4 or 5 attempts per game, then your team isn't good at getting to the line. Dwight Howard led the league last season at 10.6 FTA/game and 15 players were at 6.0 or better. The average team last season shot about 22 FTA /game, and the Suns were in the bottom ten at 21.2. Getting points at the line is not going to be one of the strengths of this year's Suns team.

 

[BC867]

Dwight Howard led the league last season at 10.6 FTA/game and 15 players were at 6.0 or better. The average team last season shot about 22 FTA /game, and the Suns were in the bottom ten at 21.2. Getting points at the line is not going to be one of the strengths of this year's Suns team.

The average team shot about 22 FTA/game . . . and the Suns were less than just one behind that. 'Sounds pretty close to average. But you are right. It will not be one of our strengths.

Marcin Gortat averaged 3.8 free throws in 32 minutes last season, which reflected coming off the bench and starting. 'Not his strong point.

Jermaine O'Neal has averaged 4.3 FGA in 27.9 MPG over his career. And Scola has averaged 3.2 in 30.2 minutes. By comparison, Robin Lopez has averaged 1.8 in 14.4 minutes and Channing Frye has averaged 1.6 in 23.9 minutes. So we have improved with Lopez gone and Frye on the DL, replaced by O'Neal and Scola.

And yes, Amar'e has averaged 7.6 FTA in 34.5 MPG. For their careers, Steve Nash has averaged 2.8 in 31.4 minutes. Goran Dragic 2.0 in 19.0 minutes, a rate 18% better per minutes played than Steve.

 

[mojorizen7]

I'm at a loss to understand why you included Westbrook in this comparison.

Think of it as adding something to a photograph to give the picture some scale(the FT attempt numbers). Obviously Westbrook is on another level.

Dragic historically averages about 5 FTA per 48 minutes; that number has been fairly consistent throughout his career. Nash's career average is 4.3, so yes, Dragic is a little better at getting to the line than Nash is. But those are pretty piddling rates for both players.

They are very average i agree. Unlike Nash and Westbrook,Dragic has never been handed the car keys to run an offense,except for those 28 starts last season....where he avg'd 4.4 FTA/gm. I believe that's relevant in terms of actual production vs using career 48 per stats for a player who hasn't played much in a leadership role.

I see no reason why Goran can't be a PG who can get to the line often on this team. He's quick,he can use his off-hand at the rim,he's athletic and he'll get plenty of chances to try to make things happen when the Suns' offense breaks down and struggles next season

We'll see.

 

[elindholm]

Jermaine O'Neal has averaged 4.3 FGA in 27.9 MPG over his career. And Scola has averaged 3.2 in 30.2 minutes. By comparison, Robin Lopez has averaged 1.8 in 14.4 minutes and Channing Frye has averaged 1.6 in 23.9 minutes. So we have improved with Lopez gone and Frye on the DL, replaced by O'Neal and Scola.

That analysis doesn't hold up. O'Neal isn't going to average anywhere near 27.9 minutes per game -- that many minutes per month will be more like it -- and not only that, but his FTA rate has fallen off dramatically in the last several seasons. So he's no improvement whatsoever. Scola gets to the line more frequently than Frye, but less often than Lopez, and he also posted a career low last year in this statistic, so that's not exactly encouraging. (By contrast, Lopez was second best on the team last year in FTA/48, behind only Warrick, and could challenge for top 20 in the league in FTA/game if his overall play could earn him enough minutes.)

I'd say it's a tossup as to whether this year's or last year's C/PF rotation gets to the line more often. Why don't we track it? Here are last year's numbers:

Gortat 251 total FTA
Lopez 140
Warrick 99 (played almost exclusively PF)
Morris 106 (I think he spent maybe 10-20% of his time at SF, but for simplicity's sake let's count all of these as PF attempts)
Frye 82

total 678 in 66 games = 10.3 FTA from C/PF rotation per game

I don't understand what the argument is. I wrote, "No one on the roster figures to get to the line often," which from context obviously meant "often by the standards of NBA players." And now you are retorting that some of the 2012-13 Suns might be a little bit better in this regard than some of the 2011-12 Suns. Sure, okay, but so what? Is anyone on the 2012-13 particularly good at getting to the line? No. That was my point.

 

[BC867]

I don't understand what the argument is ... Is anyone on the 2012-13 particularly good at getting to the line? No. That was my point.

Eric, do you read, "You are right." or, "It (free throw attempts) will not be one of our strengths." as arguments?

I can't even agree with you without you turning it into a personal issue. Chill, huh. This is about a basketball COURT, not a COURT of law.

The stats do seem to show that this year's roster should be a little better than last year's. Unless the plan is for Frye to get significant minutes when he returns. When it comes to drawing fouls, he is pathetic.

 

[leclerc]

The roster is better at free throw attempts per game, right? Cause all in all we're gonna miss Steve in our offence and have a lower point per game and lower shooting percentages. You can take that to the bank! ;-)

OT: I voted for Beasley.

 

[mojorizen7]

The roster is better at free throw attempts per game, right?

The roster as a whole? No. I don't think anyone claimed that to be the case.

Cause all in all we're gonna miss Steve in our offence and have a lower point per game and lower shooting percentages. You can take that to the bank!

Most definately. Good shots are going to be hard to come by for several guys on this team.

OT: I voted for Beasley.

So did i.

 

[Errntknght]

Amazing, Beasley getting 13 of 27 votes. I can't decide if people think so highly of Gentry (that he can get Beas to play defense and thereby logically lead the team in scoring) or if they think so little of him (that he will let Beasley play enough to lead the team in scoring even if he doesn't dramatically change his stripes.)

Heck, Warrick could have easily led the team in scoring last year if he'd gotten the playing time but Gentry didn't give it to him and I think Beasley will get the same treatment this next year.

 

[elindholm]

Amazing, Beasley getting 13 of 27 votes. I can't decide if people think so highly of Gentry (that he can get Beas to play defense and thereby logically lead the team in scoring) or if they think so little of him

I voted for Beasley, but if I had to assign a probability to him being the team's leading scorer, I'd put it no higher than 30%. It's just that everyone else seems to be an even worse candidate. I agree that Beasley experiencing a turnaround is unlikely, but he's also the closest thing to a "volume scorer" that the Suns have. My vote was based on the (reasonable) likelihood that Beasley will lead the team in scoring simply because they don't have anyone else who can put the ball in the basket with any reliability, no matter how many opportunities they get.

Warrick could have easily led the team in scoring last year if he'd gotten the playing time but Gentry didn't give it to him and I think Beasley will get the same treatment this next year.

Beasley's salary is higher than Warrick's was, so if Beasley is destined to get the Warrick Treatment, that speaks to pretty poor communication between the front office and the coaching staff about their assessment of what various players might bring to the table. If the plan really is to spend all of that money on Beasley and then keep him on a short leash, then the organization looks even more clueless than many of us feared.

 

[BC867]

We're getting a goofball for the ages

Here is an interesting article about Beasley's move (physical move) to Phoenix.

Near the end it says,

Heads-up, Phoenix. You're getting a goofball for the ages. Hopefully one that, after three-straight seasons of declining production, is using his "Everything Must Go"-sale as a way to completely leave his past behind, and start over from scratch.

It will be interesting!

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-b...sale-dump-very-150627479--nba.html#more-26562