I'm optimistic that the temporary lull in Durant news means that the Suns will not succeed in trading for him.
I was also negative about the Paul trade. I thought he might be worth a couple of playoff series victories but that the Suns would find themselves in the doldrums when his contract was up -- which would have been right now, had the Suns not extended him. The Suns won four playoff series with Paul, not two, so my expectations have been surpassed, and it looks like I was wrong about the trade.
Except ... the Suns are acting like they are in the doldrums right now anyway. For the players we hoped would grow under Paul -- Booker, Ayton, Bridges, Johnson, and Smith -- it's a decidedly mixed record. Booker and Ayton have improved some, Bridges and Johnson have plateaued, and the Suns have already given up on Smith, possibly prematurely. Meanwhile, the consensus seems to be that the Suns are not a title contender as constructed.
Trading for Durant means doubling down on the Paul deal. Sacrifice even more of the future for one big roll of the dice. Yes, it might pay off, as it almost did in Paul's first year.
But how likely is that? Durant is still an elite offensive player when healthy. I'd put him in a small group of players who are basically unstoppable when they have things going, the others being Curry, Antetokounmpo, and maybe Doncic. Durant doesn't have a lot of good years left, but he should have at least a couple.
And yet, the reality is that Durant has never led a team to the Finals, or at least not in very many years. In his long tenure with the Thunder, where he had Westbrook and (briefly) Harden as teammates, he made the Western Conference Finals five times in seven years, but advanced only once, way back in 2012 -- a year in which Westbrook was second team All-NBA and Harden was Sixth Man of the Year. Since then, there has always been some excuse for why Durant's teams fell short.
Of course, he won two titles with the Warriors, and was arguably their best player during those runs. But that was a team that had already won a title and lost a Finals Game 7 in its previous two years, so Durant cannot claim in any way to have been a difference maker. And in fact, once Durant left, all the Warriors needed to win yet another title without him was to get Klay Thompson back semi-healthy.
Durant's tenure with the Nets has been an utter failure. In spite of the star-studded roster, not only have they won only a single playoff series during his three years with them, but they've been marked by profound dysfunction and under-achievement.
And have we all forgotten about what a PR disaster he is? Fake social media accounts, arguing with fans, pouting on the bench in his faux-gangsta hoodie, complaining about disrespect when he's one of the highest-paid players in the league.
As this board has already spent the last few days exploring, trading for Durant guts the Suns' depth and will leave them scrambling to fill the roster with minimum-salary cast-offs and, maybe, mid-level ring-chasers. How are the Suns going to assemble a team that's better than the various Nets squads that couldn't get off the ground? Meanwhile, we're potentially talking about the Suns not having a first-round pick of their own until Devin Booker retires.
Oh, did we forget about Durant's injury? He still played at an elite level last season (well, when he was on the court at all, that is), but the history of players coming back from Achilles ruptures isn't good. Are we expecting Durant to suddenly find courage and determination that he's never had before? Why, and how?
If the Suns stand pat, they give themselves the chance to prove that the Paul trade was correct. Keep Ayton, spend half a season smoothing things over, and hope that he continues his modest improvement. Make it clear to Bridges and Johnson that there are specific areas of their games that they have to improve. Figure out what went wrong with last year's chemistry, take it head-on, and correct it.
Is that likely to work? Not especially. But it has a better chance of working than the Durant rescue fantasy, which smacks of Shaquille O'Neal Part Two. And at least the Suns won't have thrown away their entire future.
