... according to Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner of The Athletic. They published an article today entitled, "Why these 4 NFL teams are primed for turnaround seasons" and here are some relevant excerpts:
In the NFL, not all breakouts are the same. [.... F]or the most obvious turnaround candidates [primarily those with new QBs], improvement is already baked into betting markets, which doesn’t leave much value on those numbers. So we’re after a different kind of underdog, one that still flies under the radar but has subtle reasons to expect improvement.
Sometimes, bad teams look even worse than they are for reasons that extend beyond overall talent and coaching. The NFL is a grind, and injuries don’t affect teams equally. Teams play schedules that vary drastically in strength. Warren Sharp has demonstrated that there can be massive disparities in how many days of rest teams get between games and that big rest advantages (or disadvantages) affect performance. Unusual rates of recovering fumbles or unsustainable records in close games create opportunities for regression. And quarterback play is so crucial that a change at the position can have an outsized impact on team performance. [....]
So, armed with historical data, we examined teams that finished below .500 last season and whose projected win totals are below .500 for 2024. When we were done, we found four teams who could be headed for surprisingly better days.
NFL underdog picks
[1] Arizona Cardinals
2023 record: 4-13
2024 win total at BetMGM: Over 6.5 (-160) | Over 7.5 (+120)
Vegas sees improvement coming from the Cardinals, but even the books aren’t sure what the precise number should be. Over 6.5 wins only generates -160 odds, but over 7.5 feels like asking for a bit too much, which is why it’s a plus-money bet at +120. We certainly feel good about the Cardinals winning seven games, and eight might not be out of the question either.
Why? It starts with a full season of a healthy Kyler Murray. When Murray returned in Week 10 of last year, the Cardinals were sitting at 1-8, with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune producing just 15.4 points per game. Arizona then went 3-5 the rest of the way and put up 21.9 points per game. Now, Murray is a year further removed from his ACL injury, has made it through a full training camp, and has a new weapon in wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
But there are deeper reasons to project improvement. It turns out that last year’s Cardinals were unlucky: Their Pythagorean, or expected, win total was 5.4, in part because they went just 2-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Those stats typically regress to the mean over time. The Cardinals also had terrible injury luck even beyond Murray: They lost over 100 player games to injury, fifth-most in the NFL.
The 2024 schedule is challenging at the start, as the Cardinals will face five playoff teams in their first six games. But the roster is improved: In addition to Harrison, the Cardinals filled several major holes, including the acquisitions of right tackle Jonah Williams, cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, defensive tackles Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones and linebacker Mack Wilson. All will be starters this season, and together with a rejuvenated Murray, they could help the Cardinals double last season’s win total.
