Why the F-Tag value for QB is Wrong!!!

[AntSports Steve]

Why the F-Tag value for QB is Wrong!!!

Here's the agrument : M. Cassel is getting top 5 QB money, so should Warner.

The NFL uses a formula to compute the F-Tag value. The problem is the formula is wrong.

Here's the values used to compute it this year.

Peyton Manning $18,704,320
Tom Brady $14,620,000
Carson Palmer $13,980,001
Aaron Rodgers $13,952,500
Brett Favre $12,000,000

Franchise Tag: $14.65 million.


Note, M.Cassel's $14.65 tag value does not count as the formula counts only 2008
salaries.

Why the F-Tag is wrong :


Manning Counts 18.7, but his real contract was 7yrs/$99M for an average of $14.17.
To help get cap space, manning keeps reworking the deal, converting future rosters
bonuses to salary, inflating his current salary to make cap space.

Tom Brady 6yrs/$60 million $10 million avg, he signed a backloaded contract so
in the 1st few years, the team saves cap space, but now, some of the higher dollar
years are comming up.

Carson Palmer 9 yrs/$118.75 million $13.19 million avg, same for him.

Aaron Rodgers 6yrs/$65 million $10.83 million avg - Greenbay had lots of cap space
last year can converted some of his bonus to salary, pushing extra money into 2008
to save cap space for 2009. His salary 2009 will be much lower than the $14M listed in
the F-tag formula.

Brett Favre 3yrs/$39M left of what was orginally a 10 year/ $100M contract, Greenbay
needed cap space long ago and the Jets paid for it last year. His true value is $10M
per year.

So, using the correct values :

Manning 14.17
Brady 10.00
Palmer 13.19
Rodgers 10.83
Favre 10.00

A better value of the top 5 QB salary is more like : $11.638

This notion of Cassel's $14.65 is just crazy bad NFL logic.

 

[Shane]

Great stuff Steve!

 

[AntSports Steve]

Note: Matt Cassel is not going to have a salary of $14.65 Million in 2009 either, he is going to most likely make quite a bit less.

There are 2 likely paths for Cassel salary for 2009.

Path 1 : Brady's injury has not improved and NE is forced to start Cassel again. In this case, he signs the F-Tag tender and does indeed make $14.65 million.

Path 2 : Brady is ready to play in 2009 and NE trades Cassel for probably a 1st round pick. Cassel's new team offers him a long term contract to be the starting QB. His contract will be something like 4 years, $32M, paying him an average of about $8M per year. I'm sure Cassel's bonus and 1st year salary would be greater than $15M, so he gets good money in-case he flops, but he also has a chance to be an NFL starting QB and make big money long term. That's why he signs a reasonable QB contract and not some $14M per year deal that everyone thinks he is getting.

 

[rode kardinaal]

Doesn't the same apply to the franchise tag on the other positions?

 

[AntSports Steve]

The other positions do not seem to get out of wack as much, but yes, the same applies to all F-Tag values.

What the league should probably do is throw a few bean counters at it and go back thru the leagues salaries for say 10 years (or whatever seems revelant) and for the top 20 salaries at each position, look at their total money collected by a player over time. Factor in bonus, incentives, everything. Then average it out and adjust it so the contract makes historical sense.

For example a player gets a contract 4 years 40 million, but his contract looks like this : $5, $10, $10, $15 for each of the years. And, he gets cut after year 3, never making the last $15M of salary. So, looking back at real numbers this player made $25M over 3 years. That's an average of 8.3 per year. Now, since the salary cap goes up each year, I would assign TRUE salaries for each year increasing the right amount to it totals correctly.

For example this player would end up with true salaries after my audit of Year 1 : $7.5, Year 2 : $8.5, Year 3: $9M

Once you get the top 20 players "true" salaries at each position for each year, compare the top 5 vs the Salary Cap and find a percentage. Examine this percentage over time and start using percentage of salary cap to determine F-tag values. Then just reaudit every 3 years or so to keep up with any changes.

For example say the 2006 salary cap was $100m for each team.
Say the audited "true" top 5 QB salaries average to $8m that year. That's 8% of the cap.

So to figure out and future F-Tag for QBs, just do 8% * Cap = Number.

This year the Salary cap is $127M, times that by 8% and you have : $10.16 for my made-up F-tag value for QBs.

Each postion will have have it's own percent and contract tricks will no longer affect the numbers.

Or, skip all the audits and just pick percentage numbers of the cap for each position and add it to the list of things to work out in the next CBA deal.

 

[rode kardinaal]

For some strange reason i don't think the player's union will agree with this.

As long as player contracts can be terminated by the teams without obligations, players should be protected as well. And if the team can't work out a deal with a player but can still keep him because of the tag, than the player should be protected with the biggest amount possible. Both sides have an advantage and a disadvantage.

 

[moklerman]

This is why the tag is based on salary paid and not average per year. There's no way to accurately gauge the average per year with all of the front loading, back loading, restructuring and flat out cutting that goes on.

And how can the formula be "wrong" if all salaries are measured in the same way? It may not be the best way to do it but it's a constant for the NFL and it's players.

A better value of the top 5 QB salary is more like : $11.638

$23.3M is closer to what Warner wants than $20M.

 

[Stout]

This is why the tag is based on salary paid and not average per year. There's no way to accurately gauge the average per year with all of the front loading, back loading, restructuring and flat out cutting that goes on.

And how can the formula be "wrong" if all salaries are measured in the same way? It may not be the best way to do it but it's a constant for the NFL and it's players.

$23.3M is closer to what Warner wants than $20M.

No, 28-32 million is closer to what Warner supposedly wants.

 

[moklerman]

No, 28-32 million is closer to what Warner supposedly wants.

23 is closer to whatever Warner will take than 20, right? The Cards are still offering $3M less than what the OP is suggesting with his numbers.

 

[Stout]

23 is closer to whatever Warner will take than 20, right? The Cards are still offering $3M less than what the OP is suggesting with his numbers.

Wrong. We're currently offering around 20. He's currently demanding around 29. I'd say 23 is closer to 20 than to 29. It's a 3-6 difference, in fact.

According to the following on KFFL, they're about 3-4 million PER YEAR off. The Cards are offering around 10 half of their offer in guaranteed money, and Warner wants more than that. I could see giving him more guaranteed money if it is all this season.

Cardinals | Still far apart in talks with Warner
Sat, 28 Feb 2009 06:31:00 -0800

Kent Somers, of The Arizona Republic, reports there have been no indications that a deal between free-agent QB Kurt Warner (Cardinals) and the Arizona Cardinals is imminent. The sides are believed to be about $3 million to $4 million apart on yearly average. The Cardinals have offered $20 million over two years, with half of that guaranteed, and Warner is seeking around $29 million, with a higher amount guaranteed.

 

[moklerman]

Wrong. We're currently offering around 20. He's currently demanding around 29. I'd say 23 is closer to 20 than to 29. It's a 3-6 difference, in fact.

I wasn't saying that 23 is closer to 29 than it is to 20. I was saying that even if the $14+ million price that Cassel was franchised at is wrong and the correct "average" that Warner should realistically be seeking is $11.6M that the Cardinals are still on the cheap side of the discussion if they are supposedly offering what he should be worth according to the OP's information.

 

[splitsecond]

I wasn't saying that 23 is closer to 29 than it is to 20. I was saying that even if the $14+ million price that Cassel was franchised at is wrong and the correct "average" that Warner should realistically be seeking is $11.6M that the Cardinals are still on the cheap side of the discussion if they are supposedly offering what he should be worth according to the OP's information.

Favre's 12 mil salary from last year is also further evidence to support that.

 

[joeshmo]

All evidence of using the franchise tag to determine Warners worth. Even the Pats didnt think he was worth that or they wouldnt have traded him and another player for just a 2nd rounder. They only put it on him for leverage.

This might make the Warner negotiations go much faster becuase he and his agent might not want to wait for KC to give Cassel his new contract which will be much lower then 14 mill.

 

[moklerman]

This might make the Warner negotiations go much faster becuase he and his agent might not want to wait for KC to give Cassel his new contract which will be much lower then 14 mill.

Perhaps but I think Cassel is almost irrelevant in what they're asking. He wants to be in the top 5 for '09 and regardless of whether or not Cassel gets $14M+, the average is still that much. He outperformed the 4 guys on the list that were healthy during the regular season and far outperformed any QB in the playoffs.

 

[joeshmo]

Perhaps but I think Cassel is almost irrelevant in what they're asking. He wants to be in the top 5 for '09 and regardless of whether or not Cassel gets $14M+, the average is still that much. He outperformed the 4 guys on the list that were healthy during the regular season and far outperformed any QB in the playoffs.

Round and round we go. Franchise tag values are flawed.

 

[WildBB]

Why the F-Tag value for QB is Wrong!!!

Here's the agrument : M. Cassel is getting top 5 QB money, so should Warner.

The NFL uses a formula to compute the F-Tag value. The problem is the formula is wrong.

Here's the values used to compute it this year.

Peyton Manning $18,704,320
Tom Brady $14,620,000
Carson Palmer $13,980,001
Aaron Rodgers $13,952,500
Brett Favre $12,000,000

Franchise Tag: $14.65 million.


Note, M.Cassel's $14.65 tag value does not count as the formula counts only 2008
salaries.

Why the F-Tag is wrong :


Manning Counts 18.7, but his real contract was 7yrs/$99M for an average of $14.17.
To help get cap space, manning keeps reworking the deal, converting future rosters
bonuses to salary, inflating his current salary to make cap space.

Explain how that saves cap space for the current year?

 

[moklerman]

Round and round we go. Franchise tag values are flawed.

But how do you justify basing a 1 year salary on the more correct yearly average of a long term deal? It's a unique situation and I don't think there is much precedent.

I don't see how the average of the top guys salary is that far off from an accurate way to calculate what 1 year of high performance would be.