Why The Q for KT Trade Makes Sense (Part 2)

[George O'Brien]

In Part 1, I suggested that the Suns may have decided that the Suns may have decided that JJax would be better than Q in the way the Suns offensce is strucutred.

IS KURT THOMAS REPLACING Q OR HUNTER?

The most tellin criticism of KT is that he is not known as a guy who runs the court. On the walk it up Knicks, that is hardly surpsising. However, even if he runs the floor, it is clear that playing a "big" lineup would change the way the Suns play the game. However, the issue which is not really been addressed is whether KT would be replacing Q or Hunter.

If KT replaced Hunter, then it would mean that KT and Amare would be on the floor together a high percentage of the time and another big would be come in off the bench to spell one or the other of them. The net result would be a big lineup up to 90% of the time.

However, if KT replaces Hunter, the Suns could end up playing small from 50% to 75% of the time. Here is how the math works:

Last season, Amare averaged 36.1 minutes a game while Hunter averaged 13.8 minutes a game. Averages never work out cleanly because of DNP's and other other factor, but overall it was fairly rare for Amare and Hunter to play at the same time. This was unfortunate in that when they were needed to play at the same time, they weren't used to it and had serious defensive breakdowns. In any case, the Suns had a one big, four small lineup for 44 plus minutes a game.

If KT replaces Hunter, then it would mean 12 minutes of his play would be without Amare in the lineup. If no other bigs are used, then if KT played 32 minutes it would 20 minutes WITH Amare and 28 going small. If KT played fewer minutes, then the small lineup would be used even more.

At this point we don't know if the Suns are going to pick up another big rotation player. If they do, the Suns will play a conventional style most of the time. If they don't, the Suns might end up with a small lineup most of the time.

Who the Suns draft and or sign through free agency will tell a lot. Picking up Ike would mean a conventional if somewhat undersized lineup. Taking a wing such as Garcia could mean an even greater emphasis on small ball (depending on whther they get a big like Traylor in free agency).

In reviewing this situation, I'm beginning to think the Suns may shock everyone by taking Ryan Gomes. The logic is that he could give the Suns a small ball lineup without having to rely on Marion to play guys 50 pounds heavier than he is.

Ryan Gomes - Draft Express

As a low-post scorer, Gomes already has NBA-caliber footwork on the low block, enabling him to make up for a lack of height among the trees. And when he's clearly outsized, he possesses the ability to back out and hit the tough bank shot or the midrange jumper. He's much like Wayne Simien of Kansas in that regard. Gomes' low-post positioning is second to none among forwards in the college game. Aggressive on the boards, it is his footwork and positioning that gives him the edge boxing out bigger foes. This ability to find where the ball is going gives him better angles down low. This, in turn, allows him to get offensive rebounds, which he did at better than a three-per-game clip this season. Gomes is an even better defensive rebounder, and is extremely consistent for a guy listed at 6'7, averaging over six a game.

Gomes has great touch on both the midrange jumper and the bank off the glass. His range, while not to NBA-three range yet, is improving. He hit 33% of his threes this season (29 total) after hitting none his sophomore year.

Finally, NBA scouts no doubt notice that Gomes lives at the free throw line. This year, he hit 87% of his free throws, knocking down a whopping 134, more than double the number made by any of his Providence teammates. For good measure, Gomes also led his team in scoring, rebounding and steals.

While some draft prospects might have better natural athleticism, few will outwork Gomes on the low block. He's a hard worker who makes defenses stay on task the whole game.

NEGITIVES

Gomes has worked hard to fix any flaws in his game, most notably improving his range, adding a three point shot to keep defenses from lagging off him. Since he is not the kind of athlete that jumps out of the gym, Gomes has to use a lot of angles and moves in the paint to free himself.

On defense, Gomes is a competent matchup, but is not a shot-blocking presence at all, tallying only four all year long, despite normally being within ten feet of the basket. Instead, Gomes plays tough defense and positions himself for the defensive carom rather than cheat a little and try to block the shot.

Given that he was the focus of every team's defense, Gomes has only been required to be a functional passer, and that shows in his turnovers. This season, he averaged less than one assist per turnover. It should be noted, however, that no one else on the Providence team averaged over 11 points a game. Would you pass the ball?

So why is he late first or early second round? Mostly because Gomes is listed as an SF and just isn't quick enough. He's about the size of a Ike, but lacks Ike's extremely long arms and strength. In other words, Gomes is a classic tweener who is not big enough to be PF and not quick enough to be an SF. However, he might fit being a small ball PF on a running team. Gomes could be a real sleeper who might last into the second round if the Suns trade down.

The eigth man in the Suns rotation will tell volumes about the style the Suns will play. If they get a wing or a tweener like Gomes, we can expect to see a high percentage of small ball. If the Suns plany someone Ike or Simien, look for small ball to drop to under 30% of the time.

 

[Errntknght]

I believe that when the Suns picked up McCarty they had in mind getting a tweener F who could back up Shawn or play alongside him in certain situations to make the line up slightly larger. (I recommended such an approach somewhat earlier with my post "where's a tweener when you need him".) McCarty proved to have no heart for fighting in the paint, so it was not a fruitful attempt.

Gomes looks like a better bet than Waltuh for that role since rebounding seems to be one of his strengths. Apparently, he's not quite as athletic as we'd like but at least he does defend. I still like the idea of having that gradation of sizes for different situations and to present different matchup problems but I'm not so sure the Suns are thinking along that line - with Hunter and Outlaw gone and Jake leaving if he can find a playing time, just adding KT leaves us shorthanded when it comes to bigs. In light of that I wouldn't be surprised if they drafted someone who is closer to a true PF - like Ike or Taft.

Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if they drafted a SG or swing player... perhaps Garcia, if he fell to us.

 

[Billythekid]

I still don't like this trade. Here's my take, for what it's worth.

- Some of you people are talking about Kurt Thomas like he's the final piece of this puzzle. I doubt it. If we lose Hunter, we've lost Q and replaced Hunter with KT. Personally, i think Hunter will improve ALOT over the summer and be pretty damn good next season.

- I will support Thomas like every other Sun but from watching him in the past... He is slow and has a vertical leap of about an inch. Someone said, "Well Magic's showtime had Kareem, and he didn't run the floor" - KT ain't Kareem.

- So much of our game revolves around minimal set plays, so the drive and kick game was always an important facet of our game. Drive and kick to 3 point shooters. That resulted in Q hitting a league leading amount of 3's. You can't just replace that we any old shooter.

- KT is nasty, but having watched him a lot, he hardly strikes fear into opposing players.

- The matchup problems on the perimeter were a massive advantage for us throughout the season. Q, JJ, Marion and Nash. Who do you guard?

- We got out to big leads or reeled in teams from behind, with Q hitting big 3's alot of the time. His unconscious shot selection made us so deadly.

- Yes, Q struggled mightily in the playoffs but he would've learnt SO much and been that much better the next go around.

- I thought this team was build for the future, but obviously Q had no part in this teams plan. It's a shame that this unit wasn't able to grow together, after just one season. It was the 1st playoff REAL experience for many of them and as they say so often, you have to lose in the beginning to win in the end. It's disappointing we've traded away a HUGE chunk of Heart from the Phoenix Suns.



Now, after saying all this, it's likely that financially we shot ourselves in the foot in the beginning of the season, thus we couldn't have all the cake and eat it. We had to trade away the icing. So then, you could just discount what i'm saying, but if i had to choose between Q and Hunter or Kurt Thomas, i'd have Q and Hunter every day of the week!

Hey, I hope i'm wrong and KT adds muscle and rebounding and we get a 3 point shooter like Wesley Person and we win a title.

I just had to get that off my chest and show the love to Q. He was awesome in a Suns uni and it's sad he's gone.


Go SUNS.

 

[George O'Brien]

In my Part 1, I suggested that the Suns may be serious about starting Jimmy Jackson in the small ball lineup. If the Suns sign Garcia to have replace JJax's role off the bench, I would guarantee that we will see the Suns small ball much of the time because of the value of having so many three point shooters.

KT has to know that he is not guaranteed 35 minutes a game with the Suns. If he played 25 minutes, the Suns could end up with small ball upwards of 35 minutes a game. The difference with the way Hunter was used was that D'Antoni did not use Hunter with Amare very much, so they didn't work together well enough in the conference finals. 15 minutes a game together would change that without impacting the overall scheme.

In any case, getting KT is not about the regular season. The Suns can with with small ball using JJax and may be better than with Q. The Suns proved that even the Mavs couldn't beat their small lineup in a series even when JJ was injured. However, the Suns cannot beat the Spurs without a more defense, rebounding, and toughness. I don't know is KT is enough, but he's better than anybody else the Suns could get for Q.

 

[coloradosun]

George

Go to the my post (#9) in the 12234 vs. 12344 thread. I laid out why I am seeing the benefit of the trade as well, it is in relation to Amare being a "point center".

I did not want to type it all over again.

 

[devilalum]

George

Go to the my post (#9) in the 12234 vs. 12344 thread. I laid out why I am seeing the benefit of the trade as well, it is in relation to Amare being a "point center".

I did not want to type it all over again.

You should link to it.

 

[coloradosun]

Just taught myself how to do it.

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showpost.php?p=723314&postcount=9

here you go George

 

[lancelet's cousin]

Honestly, I'm not sure why people are thinking KT will start. We needed a big defender/rebounder for a handful of teams. I think KT will get serious minutes vs. San Antonio, Houston, and Miami (if we play them next year). Our lineup last year pretty much whipped everyone else. JJax may be going on 36 years old, but he is in great shape. I just don't see why he wouldn't start and bring in KT off the bench.

One thing I think we will see is more minutes for Barbosa. This could keep him in rhythm just the way JJax's extra minutes late in the season helped his game. I can see us picking up one more swingman if we don't draft one, and work out the minutes between JJ/JJ2/LB/aquired swingman to keep everyone fresh and in rhythm. I think D'Antoni is good at working in minutes for qualified players that way.

 

[Chaplin]

There's plenty of reasons why KT would start over Jim Jackson--and the biggest is simple: defense. When do we need KT more, against the opposing starters, or the opposing bench? Assuming the starters on a particular team are more like Kenyon Martin than Darius Songalia, just who would YOU like to defend them? Shawn Marion or Kurt Thomas?

Yes, Jim Jackson is a good player, but I'd rather have his offense off the bench then have to depend on Kurt Thomas to provide a majority of the bench scoring.

 

[lancelet's cousin]

One of the regular season games in which JJax started was against Martin's Nuggets. He and JJ helped the Suns start off with a 44 point 1st quarter.

Whats the difference between Q, who was a spot-up shooter in this offense, and better shooting JJax? We keep a much similar starting offense and still have a situational big that we didn't have last year.

The whole beauty of this team is that we create mismatches by being smaller and quicker. What we needed to have last year was a bigger, better Hunter. We (probably) now have that. So I personally would rather JJax to start.

 

[George O'Brien]

I think the starting lineup will depend more on the opponent than it was this past season. Some teams seems to have a terrible time matching up to the Suns speed ball. For example, the Suns swept the Nuggets including breaking the Nuggets long winning streak in Denver. At the same time, the Suns struggled with Houston and Golden State even though neither are even close to the Suns in record or overall effectiveness.

BTW, where I see KT being crucial is in the fourth quarter. That's when defense and rebounds are the most precious. The Suns lost a couple of games with the Spurs in the fourth quarter because they couldn't defend. When every basket counts, a streaky three point shooter is a liability.

 

[elindholm]

I think the starting lineup will depend more on the opponent than it was this past season.

That's a nice idea, but the Suns have never in their history had a starting lineup that varied according to the opponent. In many years, they've tinkered with the starting lineup throughout the season, but that's not the same as having "A" and "B" lineups that are summoned on a night-by-night basis.

It won't happen.

 

[George O'Brien]

I think the starting lineup will depend more on the opponent than it was this past season.

That's a nice idea, but the Suns have never in their history had a starting lineup that varied according to the opponent. In many years, they've tinkered with the starting lineup throughout the season, but that's not the same as having "A" and "B" lineups that are summoned on a night-by-night basis.

It won't happen.

You are probably right abut actual starters, but minute allocation is something else.

 

[elindholm]

You are probably right abut actual starters, but minute allocation is something else.

Yes, I definitely agree there. I also think that who finishes games is likely to fluctuate.

 

[PhxGametime]

I think KT should start but who knows, I'd go quick to skillball, if he did start though... unless it's a big team (1 of the teams, that give Suns problems) not just any big team.

JJack can replace Q, but I'd like to see who the Suns Draft to replace JJack (or it they go big). I just have a feeling, that the team will play skillball a lot and KT can easily play C for minutes...