Why we are divisional favorites but it also doesn't matter

cardinals2025

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Schedule

Meanwhile, the Rams have to play DET, PHI and BAL.

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Based on my analysis below, I think 4-2 in the division is definitely possible but I am sticking with 3-3 to be safe.

Home:

ATL- It was Kyler's first game back from injury. We got ATL's number. I just don't see us losing this game.

GB - Christian Watson is out for the year and many power rankings took them out of the top 10 because of FA losses. This game is now 50-50.

CAR - We have had issues with CAR in the past but the fact we are at home makes the difference in a year we are ascending. This will be a win.

It is hard not to see 6-2 at home, considering what we managed to do last year. Especially if we trade wins with the Rams based on home field.

Away:

DAL and NO- Just based on recent history, it seems like these games will be wins. We play them both very well.

TB, CIN, HOU- These are the toughest games on the schedule and really determine if we settle for 10 wins or push for something far greater. 1-2 is reasonable.

Final Note: I think we will do better at the end of the year than last time, but there will still be at least one loss that shouldn't of happened, like IND in IND for instance.

Road Record: 4-5


10-7 final record, which means worst case we get jumped by Rams because of our 3-3 divisional record or worse conference record




Why we should be considered favorites:

SF -
After finishing with the 29th ranked defense, they unloaded even more talent on both sides of the ball. In the history of the NFC West, a team has never won the division with the worst defense. Since AZ, LAR and AZ are all ranked within the top 15, this takes SF out of the equation. More importantly, Purdy lost offensive linemen and Deebo Samuel. I don't think Demarcus Robinson and a backup TE who is good will make their offense dominant. Which is what they will need with that defense that Murray had 70 pts on last year to compete in the division. The fact that they have the easiest schedule doesn't account for Purdy needing to score 28 pts a game for them to have a shot. They will lose to teams people don't expect them to lose to again, including Darnold, who has their number. The fact is their star players are the most injury prone out of any in our division.

SEA - The expectation that Darnold can thrive in a new system with 2 new aging WRs without the offensive line he relied on in MINN is a demanding one. AZ def players must be licking their chops to get another shot at the QB they shut down for 3 quarters in a game we lost. That MINN game is gonna sting until we play Darnold again and beat him. Basically, I don't think we are getting swept by SEA this year and that really makes a difference. They have the potential to compete for the wildcard, because their defense can be very good especially vs us. But I am interested to see their new offense which apparently is going to be "run first." We had no issues getting to Darnold on MINN and we sacked Geno 6 times in SEA last year. Splitting with SEA takes away a win that their fans are starting to depend on. (Geno was 6-0)

Rams - If their Defense keeps playing like they did at the end of last year, it makes them the biggest threat. That said, Stafford vs AZ defense was pitiful in both games. Murray passed for a ton of yardage, it just didn't translate in the 2nd game with no Connor and the tipped pass off Mcbrides head. But we were literally a play away from sweeping them. I am not a fan of Davante Adams especially with how well we covered him but I expect a split between us. Stafford threw 4 less tds last year compared to 2023.

AZ - Kyler Murray should be the best overall QB in the division in terms of total TDs and many other stats. Our defense, which was improving despite injuries and lack of talent last year, added talent and depth. We still have the draft and possible more FA's I think we could add as their money options start to dry up. I really want that WR still. If we could add oline help, perhaps we could draft the best CB at 16 if we end up keeping the pick. I think that would put the division on notice more than anything else. We have the ability to be the best defense in the league and adding someone like Will Johnson would definitely help.




Why being a favorite doesn't matter:

1. It depends on Murray and the defense not collapsing in November and December.

2. SEA or Stafford can beat expectations and turn it on when it matters.

3. This group hasn't proven it can make it to the playoffs or win when it matters most.

4. This guy turns into the next Kittle and 49ers put up a bunch of pts. Seriously ????

How much does this mean for Mcbride? LOL


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AND SOMEHOW THE 49ERS MAGICALLY MAKE UP FOR THIS LACK OF DLINE AND SECONDARY.

ALSO FINDING A WAY TO PROTECT PURDY WITH NEW SUBPAR OLINEMEN.

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Brian in Mesa

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Bruh we have the longest odds to win (+650 on BetMGM). You have a very funny definition of "favorites"
I was going to say the same thing. They were just discussing on the local radio how ESPN is projecting us as the last place team in the division based on offseason moves. Then I log in and read "divisional favorites." LOL
 

kerouac9

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the fact we are at home makes the difference in a year we are ascending

Yes, but you're assuming the idea that we're ascending as part of the support for the argument that we're in ascendence. Carolina will be better next year, also, and last year they boat-raced us.

It was Kyler's first game back from injury. We got ATL's number.

Remind me who was ATL's head coach and starting quarterback in that game. Why should a game two years ago be relevant now?

Kyler Murray should be the best overall QB in the division in terms of total TDs and many other stats.
It's really about how much the defense can improve and how much more efficient our outside receivers can be (and, to an extent, McBride as well).
 
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cardinals2025

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Bruh we have the longest odds to win (+650 on BetMGM). You have a very funny definition of "favorites"
They look exactly the same as last year. How did that work out for SF?

It is down to +300 elsewhere. Wait until the win total over under odds have it to be made. Odds are wrong and aren’t accounting for the players SF has lost. There are some power rankings that have us at 14th. Use your brain. Vegas can be wrong. There is no reason why SF should be a favorite over LA. Absolutely none.

If they put us at over under 8.5 wins are you gonna believe that one too?

We were at 6.5 wins originally at this time last year and it moved to 7.5 by week 1 and we still beat that prediction despite the collapse at the end of the season.
 

Brian in Mesa

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They look exactly the same as last year. How did that work out for SF?

It is down to +300 elsewhere. Wait until the win total over under odds have it to be made. Odds are wrong and aren’t accounting for the players SF has lost. There are some power rankings that have us at 14th. Use your brain. Vegas can be wrong. There is no reason why SF should be a favorite over LA. Absolutely none.

If they put us at over under 8.5 wins are you gonna believe that one too?

We were at 6.5 wins originally at this time last year and it moved to 7.5 by week 1 and we still beat that prediction despite the collapse at the end of the season.
Here is where the teams in our division are currently listed in ESPN's offseason power rankings.

#8 - Los Angeles Rams
#15 - San Francisco 49ers
#16 - Seattle Seahawks
#20 - Arizona Cardinals

 
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cardinals2025

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Yes, but you're assuming the idea that we're ascending as part of the support for the argument that we're in ascendence. Carolina will be better next year, also, and last year they boat-raced us.



Remind me who was ATL's head coach and starting quarterback in that game. Why should a game two years ago be relevant now?


It's really about how much the defense can improve and how much more efficient our outside receivers can be (and, to an extent, McBride as well).
We didn’t lose to a bad team at home last year despite our late season struggles. Pretty sure if we lose to CAR Kyler is gone so I am betting against something like our defense giving up 37 pts and James Connor missing the 2nd half happening again.

You are right. ATL is worse and we are better than when we played them last time. :)
 
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cardinals2025

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Here is where the teams in our division are currently listed in ESPN's offseason power rankings.

#8 - Los Angeles Rams
#15 - San Francisco 49ers
#16 - Seattle Seahawks
#20 - Arizona Cardinals


Here is one that has at 13th. Most national media would prob still have us ranked 4th even if Purdy got traded so I don’t understand the point. It has always been like this. We were ranked 29th last year to start the season. They will just be wrong again.

Statistically, according to profootballreference, we were the 14th best team with strength of schedule as well as offensive and defensive stats factored into the equation.

This was when the season ended.
 
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cardinals2025

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Here is one that has at 13th. Most national media would prob still have us ranked 4th even if Purdy got traded so I don’t understand the point. It has always been like this. We were ranked 29th last year to start the season. They will just be wrong again.

Statistically, according to profootballreference, we were the 14th best team with strength of schedule as well as offensive and defensive stats factored into the equation.

This was when the season ended.
Actually I was wrong. We were ranked 12th of 32 to end the year. Our mathematical expectation also says we should have won 9 games not 8. When you think about how close we were to winning an extra gm either vs CAR in OT or LA on that final drive, that actually makes sense.


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Here is how SRS is calculated.

 
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cardinals2025

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Also when I say we are the favorites, it should be clarified that I still think it is really close between us and the Rams. It could go either way and we could not win the division with 10 wins. It is certainly possible but hopefully there is a wildcard window at that point.

But how can you look at the Rams schedule and say it is an easy road to 10 wins compared to ours?


Someone needs to show me how we won’t get 10 wins barring injury.

How am I overestimating a 4-5 road record and a 3-3 divisional record?

Or why is it bad to think we won’t get swept by SEA this year, which means we can easily go 6-2 at home because our home games are alot easier than our road ones.

GB is our toughest home game and everyone pointing to odds and power rankings should realize that they just dropped in both for players they lost in FA.

It is a winnable game unlike in Lambeau.
 

football karma

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I think there are reasons to be optimistic about next season.

Schedule is definitely one of them as it relates to competing for a playoff spot -- but thats true for the entire division, so it kinda washes out for a division crown.

SF and SEA both have undergone material changes --

SEA is a giant ?. Will the offense be better?

SF gets McCaffery back, but i question how good Aiyuk will be less than 12 most from an ACL. Also curious to see Purdy with the pressure of having a giant new contract.

LA is tough to figure.
 
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cardinals2025

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I think there are reasons to be optimistic about next season.

Schedule is definitely one of them as it relates to competing for a playoff spot -- but thats true for the entire division, so it kinda washes out for a division crown.

SF and SEA both have undergone material changes --

SEA is a giant ?. Will the offense be better?

SF gets McCaffery back, but i question how good Aiyuk will be less than 12 most from an ACL. Also curious to see Purdy with the pressure of having a giant new contract.

LA is tough to figure.
I think there are reasons to be optimistic about next season.

Schedule is definitely one of them as it relates to competing for a playoff spot -- but thats true for the entire division, so it kinda washes out for a division crown.

SF and SEA both have undergone material changes --

SEA is a giant ?. Will the offense be better?

SF gets McCaffery back, but i question how good Aiyuk will be less than 12 most from an ACL. Also curious to see Purdy with the pressure of having a giant new contract.

LA is tough to figure.
Rams defense is what could make them really tough. They had PHI on the ropes.

SEA is a ? and they tend to surprise us so I am not counting them out for a wildcard possibility.

Meanwhile, I can’t look at SFs def last year and what they just did with a straight face and act like they don’t matter.




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$170 MILLION IN GUARANTEED MONEY just walked out the door. Also this doesn’t include Leonard Floyd who they also lost. Those two starting olinemen who left will make a huge difference.
 

kerouac9

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The bet on San Fran is that their offense will be improved with health from CMC and Aiyuk. Both those guys are top 10 at their position when healthy. Plus arguably a top 5 head coach and the return of DC Robert Saleh who had that side of the ball cooking before he was hired by the Jets (where he also had that side of the ball cooking before he got fired because Brick Johnson thought he should play more Engage Eight because it works on Madden).

The Rams were 10-7 last year against a fairly easy schedule in retrospect with the 20th-ranked scoring offense and 17th-ranked scoring defense. They outperformed their expected wins by +2. They are really a PRIME candidate for regression next year. They were 8-4 in games decided by seven points or less.

I put some money on the Cards at +650 because that seems like a fun bet to watch this year. But there's no definition of "division favorites" that aligns with what you're describing. They're probably undervalued -- we lagged our expected wins by -1 and were 3-5 games decided by a TD or less. Was that bad luck, or inferior coaching?

Regardless, no amount of screenshots from PFR and shady/unheard of power rankings links are going to convince us not to believe what's before our very eyes: this is a pretty mediocre team that lacks the playmakers to separate itself from the middle of the pack.
 

SECTION 11

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Wait, what is happening? We are favored to not be favorites? Or we are favorites, but not favored?
My favorite flavor is vanilla, because it’s the best. Not sure if that helps though.
 

blindseyed

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It all depends on when the games are played so we can factor in the inevitable 2nd half Kyler Collapse lol
 

Crimson Warrior

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I mean, the West is pretty wide open at this point.

Last year we swept SF and probably should have swept LA too.

But SEA does scare me some. Their defense dominated our offense, especially in SEA. Their front seven is a bad match up for our O-line.
 

PDXChris

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The bet on San Fran is that their offense will be improved with health from CMC and Aiyuk. Both those guys are top 10 at their position when healthy.
Aiyuk will be a Brown when the season starts. They are pushing hard for him.

And if the Raiders miss out on Jeanty, they'll trade for CMC. Pete's window is small. By mid-season, he'll the oldest person to ever coach an NFL game, passing Romeo Crennel!

This is the Rams division to lose and the Seahawks will continue to have our number until we massively upgrade the OL.
 

Jttsaz

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Uhhh...the home schedule is kind of a turd next season IMO..not hard, but meh..that and the fact that my season tix have doubled from just 2 seasons ago makes me wanna puke..oh well..better win some games and make a push for the post season...
 

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