Will Noah Drop?

[azirish]

Hidden in the midst of the Chicago Tribune's Marion piece was another interesting nugget:

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune...smith,1,3623168.column?coll=cs-home-headlines

Noah's arc

I was talking to an NBA big man's coach and asked about Florida's Joakim Noah, whom the Bulls looked at Friday. "I see him as a mid- to low first-round pick," the coach said. That's not exactly where most of the mock drafts—which Noah generally scorns as uninformed—have the Florida center. The coach likened Noah to Mark Madsen, the Timberwolves reserve. And though Madsen is listed two inches shorter, they did have similar statistics in college with Madsen averaging 10.9 points and 7.9 rebounds in his Stanford career and Noah 12 points and 8.4 rebounds. "Their skill is energy," the coach said. If given the choice between Noah and Hawes, the coach said he'd want Hawes for his NBA potential. He likened Hawes to Clippers center Chris Kamen.

It's not impossible Noah could fall to #24. Considering his skill set, he might not be of much interest to more than two or three teams.

IMHO, he's a bad pick in the lottery, but worth taking at #24.

At 7'0" with shoes, 8'10" standing reach and a max verticle of 37.5; Noah is the kind of long thin player that can be very useful on defense. Very very high energy, Draft Express says his upside is that of Camby and his downside is that of Varejao. He's a very good rebounder at 8.4 rpg and shot blocker. He's also an unusally good perimeter defender who can give wing shooters trouble without being easily beaten on drives.

Offensively, he averaged 12 ppg on 60.5% shooting because he makes mostly layups. Unfortunately, he has no jump shot and at 225 pounds is not strong enough to be a stop low post defender.

Without the strength of a classic PF and just average footspeed (he runs hard but is not quick enough to be an SF even if his shooting improved), he's not a good fit for most teams.

Early in the first round you look for guys who can either start or have the potential to be a future star. At the end of the first round, you look for rotation players. IMHO, he's not a future star but could be a rotation player on the Suns.

Can the Suns live without much shooting from Noah as a backup. My guess is that his high energy style might be more valueable. That's not a sure thing, but D'Antoni is always concerned about the team's energy lapses.

 

[Covert Rain]

I might be the minority but I am just not enamored with Noah at all. I would rather this team take a high potential young player then someone I think will never amount to anything but a serviceable player.

 

[asudevil83]

damn....that kid should have come out when he had the chance last year. his weaknesses have been exposed, and is been realized that he has no TRUE strengths that can translate into a successful NBA career.

he can hustle....but that's about it.

in all honesty, if he didnt have all that hype last year, this kid might even be a late 1st to early 2nd this year.

 

[hcsilla]

lol, Noah slowly will go undrafted.

Wake up, guys, he is still at least a top10 pick.

 

[azirish]

I might be the minority but I am just not enamored with Noah at all. I would rather this team take a high potential young player then someone I think will never amount to anything but a serviceable player.

Obviously if the Suns think there is a "high potential" player WHO CAN CONTRIBUTE IMMEDIATELY, they'll go that direction. However, by the 20's the players who are left are typcially projects and likely backups. I have an intense dislike for projects. After a while, potential is just not enough.

However, there are some guys who I think will be solid contributors who might fall. But I'm still convinced Noah could contibute immediately, if only in short minutes.

 

[Gaddabout]

Noah's horrible. He's the next Sam Bowie. And his father was only good on clay courts, so how good can Noah be on wood floors? He's a second-round talent over-hyped because his surrounded by first-round talent. He's got horrible eating habits. I heard he's been hitting the buffet twice a day, and he ain't been visiting the salad bar: it's all pork and mashed potatoes, all the time. Apparently he speaks French, which can only mean he's going to be difficult to motivate as a pro. He's also born with a silver spoon. Must have an attitude problem. Rumor has it one leg is shorter than the other -- he's going to develop back problems before he's 25.

Pass this on. Maybe if we ding him enough we can sign him as an undrafted free-agent.

 

[Covert Rain]

lol, Noah slowly will go undrafted.

Wake up, guys, he is still at least a top10 pick.

I think most people still think he is top 10. That doesn't mean he should be top 10. I think if you go over the last 10 drafts that would be a no brainer. The NBA drafts guys because of size and what they did in college all the time.

That doesn't mean Noah is going to be any good. It's still no guarantee. I just don't see why people are so enamored with this guy. Mark my words, he will be just another college big man who will get a fat contract only to slowly fade away at the end of the bench.

He will never be a stud or a star.

 

[Mainstreet]

I don't think Noah will slide to #24. Like Hcsilla said, I think he is a top ten pick. I have a feeling the Suns would look at Noah in terms of what he can do rather than what he can't. He is definitely an athletic big man with a good frame that can run the court in the Suns system. Also I think he can learn to be a good defender and rebounder. Also he seems intelligent. Anyway, I'm betting the Suns think that he has the talent to coach-up.

 

[Rab]

I won't be happy if the Suns somehow drafted Noah. I said in another thread somewhere that he is one of the most overrated prospects in the draft.

I don't like him at all.

 

[Mainstreet]

I won't be happy if the Suns somehow drafted Noah. I said in another thread somewhere that he is one of the most overrated prospects in the draft.

I don't like him at all.

I can see what you are saying but he just seems to be a Suns type player except for his shooting. I've had this gut feeling the Suns have liked him for the past two years. I just think the Suns see this big athletic player that can run the floor who has the ability to adapt because of his intelligence.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Not a fan, he seems pretty immature and unprepared for the big leagues

Exhibit A

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvQbQUv9qBw

 

[Rab]

I can see what you are saying but he just seems to be a Suns type player except for his shooting. I've had this gut feeling the Suns have liked him for the past two years. I just think the Suns see this big athletic player that can run the floor who has the ability to adapt because of his intelligence.

I think the Suns love him, and that's why I am worried if he is available. If we had received the Hawks pick at 4 or 5, I have no doubt in my mind they would've selected Noah. They even had him here for a visit during Game 5 of the Spurs series. I think they could do better than this guy.

 

[elindholm]

I'm guessing Noah goes between 9 and 12.

 

[Mainstreet]

I think the Suns love him, and that's why I am worried if he is available. If we had received the Hawks pick at 4 or 5, I have no doubt in my mind they would've selected Noah. They even had him here for a visit during Game 5 of the Spurs series. I think they could do better than this guy.

I must say I'm not a big Noah fan either, but I think if the Suns like him early in the draft I would be the last person to argue with them. I think they have probably scouted every aspect of his game and project a high upside.

 

[Rab]

I must say I'm not a big Noah fan either, but I think if the Suns like him early in the draft I would be the last person to argue with them. I think they have probably scouted every aspect of his game and project a high upside.

I would be more okay with taking him early if he came out last year in the weak draft. In this draft, I see no reason why he should be top 10-15.

I think he was overrated because of the performance in the NCAA's two years ago. I might even be okay with them taking him low in the first round if he happens to fall that low, but I would like the Suns to avoid him even more.

If he proves me wrong, then sobeit.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm guessing Noah goes between 9 and 12.

I'm guessing if players like Noah or Conley slide within their ability to move up in the draft the Suns go after them. I suspect there are a number of other players on the Suns short list where they would try to move up in the draft. I think the Suns are keeping their cards close to the vest and waiting for an opportunity to get the player they want. If they cannot do it, I think there is enough quality players for the Suns to let the draft come to them.

 

[Mainstreet]

I would be more okay with taking him early if he came out last year in the weak draft. In this draft, I see no reason why he should be top 10-15.

I think he was overrated because of the performance in the NCAA's two years ago. I might even be okay with them taking him low in the first round if he happens to fall that low, but I would like the Suns to avoid him even more.

If he proves me wrong, then sobeit.

I'm not betting on Noah per se, however, I'm betting on the Suns evaluation of talent. I think the Suns have a good handle on him if they like him.

 

[Rab]

I'm not betting on Noah per se, however, I'm betting on the Suns evaluation of talent. I think the Suns have a good handle on him if they like him.

Well, if they do get him, I would hope that they're right over me.

 

[Muggum]

I think he *could* fall as far as 15, but 24? No way.

That Mark Madsen comparison is frightening. I loved the Mad Dog in college, but he had no range beyond 5 feet, which is deadly in the NBA.

 

[azirish]

If the report is right and the scouts are really down on him, then he might fall out of the top tier and then could drop a lot.

The issue is that there are not a lot of running teams in the middle of the draft and IMHO, the Wizzards and Nets have other priorities. The guy Noah may most resemble is Beidrins who would never play on most teams.

 

[TucsonDevil]

If Noah drops to #24, I wouldn't pick him either. "I would wait for him to drop to #59 and pick him up there..." I really believe that the Suns think this way, or maybe it is just D'Antoni that thinks this way...

If we move up in the Draft to grab Noah, I will hang myself.

 

[azirish]

If Noah drops to #24, I wouldn't pick him either. "I would wait for him to drop to #59 and pick him up there..." I really believe that the Suns think this way, or maybe it is just D'Antoni that thinks this way...

If we move up in the Draft to grab Noah, I will hang myself.

A drop to #29 seems very unlikely, though hardly impossible. The key is that the later in the draft, the more likely role players will get taken and Noah is a role player.

 

[Goldfield]

a tall role player. I dont think hell will drop out of the teens.

 

[dodie53]

i have a feeling the spurs will get noah if they have a chance..

 

[mathbzh]

If Noah fall to #24 he is a must pick.
We are a contender right now (how long will Nash last?) and we need a defensive big. In the late 1st round Noah would be the obvious pick.

1) He would be the only big in the late 1st round who could make an immediate impact on the defensive end (even if it is only for a few minutes).
2) He would be the only one able to run with the team.
3) Playing with Amare and Nash would help him to look good on the offensive end. Moreover even if his shooting mechanics is weird (ugly may be a better word) he is not a terrible shooter.
4) He has a great work ethic, a lot of leadership and a lot of energy.
5) He knows how to play with more talented player. He knows his role what he can do and what he can't.
6) Here is a list of big who could be available at #24. Is there one you would chose over Noah?

DeVon Hardin
Aaron Gray
Sean Williams
Marc Gasol
Nick Fazekas
Kyle Visser
Herbert Hill
Ali Traore

IMO only two players on that list could turn into something better than a role player:
- Devon Hardin who is only a project and will need a lot of time to become
usefull
- Sean Williams who has a lot of potential... if his carrer is not shorten by drug and character issues.