Woo-Hoo! Football Outsiders Annual 2022 Release Day!

kerouac9

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I guess it's too bad that I have like 15 assets to right today. :bigmad:

I'll keep this as a running thread of what I notice as I flip through, but here are the key takeaways from the boxes on page 1 for the Cards' writeup:

2022 Mean Win Projection: 7.7 Wins
Postseason odds: 32.1%
Hardest projected schedule in the league

This chart places Kyler's first three seasons in a very interesting context:
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Very interesting company indeed.
 
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kerouac9

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Okay, one more thing and then I have to get some work done.

We were really good on third down last year. You can tell that it was an area of emphasis in the offseason. 25.9% DVOA offensively (4th), -16.6% DVOA defensively (6th).

We really back-slid in redzone offense though. 9.2% DVOA (24th). Although I dunno. Maybe the rest of the league got better. We were 8.9% in 2020 and taht was good enough for 14th.
 

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Okay, one more thing and then I have to get some work done.

We were really good on third down last year. You can tell that it was an area of emphasis in the offseason. 25.9% DVOA offensively (4th), -16.6% DVOA defensively (6th).

We really back-slid in redzone offense though. 9.2% DVOA (24th). Although I dunno. Maybe the rest of the league got better. We were 8.9% in 2020 and taht was good enough for 14th.
We felt like a good/great team on offense from the 20 to the 20. We failed to get out of our own end zone and store quite a bit and this stat helps to prove that.
 

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I heard someone on defense, either Vance or Kennard say a big reason for the late collapse was no longer being able to win on 1st and 2nd down. FWIW.
 

ASUCHRIS

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I heard someone on defense, either Vance or Kennard say a big reason for the late collapse was no longer being able to win on 1st and 2nd down. FWIW.
With Watt, we could at least slow down the running game. Once you take Watt out of that line, who is going to slow you down? Leki Fotu? Rashard Lawrence?
 
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kerouac9

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With Watt, we could at least slow down the running game. Once you take Watt out of that line, who is going to slow you down? Leki Fotu? Rashard Lawrence?
One player rarely makes a difference in shutting down a run game unless it's, like, Vita Vea or Aaron Donald. J.J. Watt isn't that guy anymore. It takes 7-9 guys filling their roles to play solid run defense.

We were actually 6th in rush defense DVOA last year.
 

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We were actually 6th in rush defense DVOA last year.
i think lost in the annual stats is the hard to believe difference almost across the board between pre-bye and post-bye performance

i suspect rush D, red zone, 3rd down -- all those things -- are really diff on either side of that cutoff
 

ASUCHRIS

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One player rarely makes a difference in shutting down a run game unless it's, like, Vita Vea or Aaron Donald. J.J. Watt isn't that guy anymore.
I don't know how you can watch all the games last year, and not see a major difference when JJ was playing. Without Watt, any semblance of controlling the line of scrimmage was lost.

The differences in wins and losses were obvious. We were 7-1 with a healthy Watt, and although offensive injuries hurt as well, our D was severely effected without Watt.

Specific to run D, he had 5 tackles for loss before the injury, and was constantly causing disruption behind the line of scrimmage.

If you're looking for a deeper dive on the impact of Watt and his injury, this article is instructive:

Major info:https://theathletic.com/3072479/202...ential-return-vs-rams-may-be-boost-they-need/

Defensively, the Cardinals’ problems began against the Rams in Week 14, when Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford was nearly perfect, with three touchdowns and no interceptions while completing nearly 77 percent of his passes. Cooper Kupp, the NFL’s 2021 receiving leader, caught 13 passes for 123 yards that night. And Stafford’s 52-yard touchdown pass to Van Jefferson was a sign of what was to come for the Cardinals defense over the next month.


In the next four games, Arizona allowed five touchdown plays of more than 29 yards, including a 25-yard pass and a 62-yard touchdown run last week in a loss to Seattle. The vulnerability on explosive plays coincided with a marked decrease in Arizona’s ability to create turnovers. After 23 takeaways in the first 12 games, an average of 1.91 turnovers a game, the Cardinals forced just four over the final five weeks, including just one interception in that span.


“Playing defense in this league is difficult, but if you don’t play with great detail and you make too many mistakes, it can look like it looked on Sunday,” defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said, referencing the Cardinals’ Week 18 loss to Seattle. The Seahawks rushed for 202 yards and scored 38 points, the most Arizona allowed all season. “We have to get back to playing clean football; coaching better, playing better, that’s the key. When our defense does those things well, we’re a hard out for offenses. If we play 55 snaps of good football and three or four snaps of bad football, it can mean 21 points, and that’s the stress of playing defense against good people.”


Those are all areas in which Watt could help. He played at least 46 defensive snaps in each of his six full games before getting injured. And while it would be naive to expect him to handle a normal workload if he were to play Monday, Watt is enough of a pass-rush threat to force the Rams’ offensive line to have to account for him. That potentially frees up teammates such as Chandler Jones or Markus Golden. Watt had just one sack this season, but was credited with 27 pressures (per Pro Football Focus), including five in the Cardinals’ Week 4 win over the Rams.

It takes 7-9 guys filling their roles to play solid run defense.
Luckily we just jettisoned our leading tackler from last season!
We were actually 6th in rush defense DVOA last year.
That sounds good! I'd love to see the comparative #'s with and without Watt. I'm also incredibly skeptical of any statistic that would indicate the Cards having a top run D.


Finally - “There was never a moment that I didn’t consider it realistic. If I did, it wouldn’t work. I had to truly believe it every second for it to work,” Watt said. “The only thing that matters to me is being out there for my teammates, trying to help us win a game and get us to the end goal. Because that’s what this is all about. I’m not doing all this work and trying to come back in half the time for no reason.”

If only the rest of the team had half the heart of Watt... :(
 
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kerouac9

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i think lost in the annual stats is the hard to believe difference almost across the board between pre-bye and post-bye performance

i suspect rush D, red zone, 3rd down -- all those things -- are really diff on either side of that cutoff

I dunno.

Metric | Pre Bye | Post-Bye
PPG | 13.36 | 24.43

Yeah that sucks. Hard to overcome.
I don't know how you can watch all the games last year, and not see a major difference when JJ was playing. Without Watt, any semblance of controlling the line of scrimmage was lost.

The differences in wins and losses were obvious. We were 7-1 with a healthy Watt, and although offensive injuries hurt as well, our D was severely effected without Watt.

Specific to run D, he had 5 tackles for loss before the injury, and was constantly causing disruption behind the line of scrimmage.

If you're looking for a deeper dive on the impact of Watt and his injury, this article is instructive:

Major info:https://theathletic.com/3072479/202...ential-return-vs-rams-may-be-boost-they-need/

Defensively, the Cardinals’ problems began against the Rams in Week 14, when Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford was nearly perfect, with three touchdowns and no interceptions while completing nearly 77 percent of his passes. Cooper Kupp, the NFL’s 2021 receiving leader, caught 13 passes for 123 yards that night. And Stafford’s 52-yard touchdown pass to Van Jefferson was a sign of what was to come for the Cardinals defense over the next month.


In the next four games, Arizona allowed five touchdown plays of more than 29 yards, including a 25-yard pass and a 62-yard touchdown run last week in a loss to Seattle. The vulnerability on explosive plays coincided with a marked decrease in Arizona’s ability to create turnovers. After 23 takeaways in the first 12 games, an average of 1.91 turnovers a game, the Cardinals forced just four over the final five weeks, including just one interception in that span.


“Playing defense in this league is difficult, but if you don’t play with great detail and you make too many mistakes, it can look like it looked on Sunday,” defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said, referencing the Cardinals’ Week 18 loss to Seattle. The Seahawks rushed for 202 yards and scored 38 points, the most Arizona allowed all season. “We have to get back to playing clean football; coaching better, playing better, that’s the key. When our defense does those things well, we’re a hard out for offenses. If we play 55 snaps of good football and three or four snaps of bad football, it can mean 21 points, and that’s the stress of playing defense against good people.”


Those are all areas in which Watt could help. He played at least 46 defensive snaps in each of his six full games before getting injured. And while it would be naive to expect him to handle a normal workload if he were to play Monday, Watt is enough of a pass-rush threat to force the Rams’ offensive line to have to account for him. That potentially frees up teammates such as Chandler Jones or Markus Golden. Watt had just one sack this season, but was credited with 27 pressures (per Pro Football Focus), including five in the Cardinals’ Week 4 win over the Rams.


Luckily we just jettisoned our leading tackler from last season!

That sounds good! I'd love to see the comparative #'s with and without Watt. I'm also incredibly skeptical of any statistic that would indicate the Cards having a top run D.


Finally - “There was never a moment that I didn’t consider it realistic. If I did, it wouldn’t work. I had to truly believe it every second for it to work,” Watt said. “The only thing that matters to me is being out there for my teammates, trying to help us win a game and get us to the end goal. Because that’s what this is all about. I’m not doing all this work and trying to come back in half the time for no reason.”

If only the rest of the team had half the heart of Watt... :(
I'll never get these J.J. Watt stans, TBH.
 

ASUCHRIS

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I'll never get these J.J. Watt stans, TBH.
Rich and compelling, thanks for your insight! You bizarrely continue to minimize the contributions of Watt in spite of the obvious change when he was out of the lineup.

More often than not, I agree with your positions, but this and the B grade for Keim...sheesh.
 

dreamcastrocks

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Rich and compelling, thanks for your insight! You bizarrely continue to minimize the contributions of Watt in spite of the obvious change when he was out of the lineup.

More often than not, I agree with your positions, but this and the B grade for Keim...sheesh.
Bingo Bango Bongo.
 
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kerouac9

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Rich and compelling, thanks for your insight! You bizarrely continue to minimize the contributions of Watt in spite of the obvious change when he was out of the lineup.

More often than not, I agree with your positions, but this and the B grade for Keim...sheesh.
My guy. Watt played 341 snaps and seven games. Depending on his 34-year-old body to make it through a 12th NFL season when he's managed to place a full schedule twice in the past six years is basically admitting defeat.

Many (including me!) were saying early in the season that we needed to do a better job managing Watt's snap count to help him last the year. He had a 100% stop rate on run plays his way last year. That's freaking cool! He had as many QB hits as Markus Golden. Also great!

But I'm not depending on him to play 17 games. You can't. There has to be a different option. We weren't good because he was playing a small share of our games, and we weren't bad because he wasn't.

Also, I put no stake in J.J. Watt's leadership attributes. It's not like he wasn't around the building and on the sideline during the collapse. It's not like that 2020 Houston Texans team when he last played 16 games didn't go 4-12 and have the 30th ranked scoring defense in the NFL. J.J. Watt is inspirational to certain people, but there's little evidence with it comes to wins and losses that he is so to his teammates.
 

ASUCHRIS

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My guy. Watt played 341 snaps and seven games. Depending on his 34-year-old body to make it through a 12th NFL season when he's managed to place a full schedule twice in the past six years is basically admitting defeat.
100% with you here.
Many (including me!) were saying early in the season that we needed to do a better job managing Watt's snap count to help him last the year. He had a 100% stop rate on run plays his way last year. That's freaking cool! He had as many QB hits as Markus Golden. Also great!
Still apparently on the same page...
But I'm not depending on him to play 17 games. You can't. There has to be a different option.
Your suggestion of a snap count seems to be the best chance of success.
We weren't good because he was playing a small share of our games, and we weren't bad because he wasn't.
Then how do you explain the fact that we were really good on D with him in, and that the results changed completely when he was out?

Do you honestly believe that was coincidence? You can tell me with a straight face that the D didn't look different with Watt out there?
Also, I put no stake in J.J. Watt's leadership attributes. It's not like he wasn't around the building and on the sideline during the collapse. It's not like that 2020 Houston Texans team when he last played 16 games didn't go 4-12 and have the 30th ranked scoring defense in the NFL. J.J. Watt is inspirational to certain people, but there's little evidence with it comes to wins and losses that he is so to his teammates.
I didn't say anything about his leadership skills, more focused on his heart and his effort. The guy killed himself to make a playoff game, and clearly it didn't inspire anyone.

That says a lot more about the Cards than it does about Watt.
 
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kerouac9

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Then how do you explain the fact that we were really good on D with him in, and that the results changed completely when he was out?

Do you honestly believe that was coincidence? You can tell me with a straight face that the D didn't look different with Watt out there?
Because we were also bad when he was here (like the Minnesota game) and we had good games after he was out (like against San Francisco, and a 4 TO performance against Chicago, and when we allowed 45 yards rushing (!!!!!!!!) on the road against Dallas).

I don't believe it's a coincidence, but I also don't believe that correlation automatically means causation. I think that when you pull out an above-average-ish starting NFL defensive lineman and replace him with Michael Dogbe, you're going to see some back-sliding. Especially when you next remove a similar-quality player in Jordan Phillips and replace him with Rashard Lawrence.

I think that losing both Watt and Phillips and only having Keim draft picks to replace them both is what precipitated the collapse.
 

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One player rarely makes a difference in shutting down a run game unless it's, like, Vita Vea or Aaron Donald. J.J. Watt isn't that guy anymore. It takes 7-9 guys filling their roles to play solid run defense.

We were actually 6th in rush defense DVOA last year.
I'll agree, but from my own eyes, as a team, we were better with him on the field. He rarely made the tackle, but he definitely altered the plays in which we were proficient.
 

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I don't know how you can watch all the games last year, and not see a major difference when JJ was playing. Without Watt, any semblance of controlling the line of scrimmage was lost.

The differences in wins and losses were obvious. We were 7-1 with a healthy Watt, and although offensive injuries hurt as well, our D was severely effected without Watt.

Specific to run D, he had 5 tackles for loss before the injury, and was constantly causing disruption behind the line of scrimmage.

If you're looking for a deeper dive on the impact of Watt and his injury, this article is instructive:

Major info:https://theathletic.com/3072479/202...ential-return-vs-rams-may-be-boost-they-need/

Defensively, the Cardinals’ problems began against the Rams in Week 14, when Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford was nearly perfect, with three touchdowns and no interceptions while completing nearly 77 percent of his passes. Cooper Kupp, the NFL’s 2021 receiving leader, caught 13 passes for 123 yards that night. And Stafford’s 52-yard touchdown pass to Van Jefferson was a sign of what was to come for the Cardinals defense over the next month.


In the next four games, Arizona allowed five touchdown plays of more than 29 yards, including a 25-yard pass and a 62-yard touchdown run last week in a loss to Seattle. The vulnerability on explosive plays coincided with a marked decrease in Arizona’s ability to create turnovers. After 23 takeaways in the first 12 games, an average of 1.91 turnovers a game, the Cardinals forced just four over the final five weeks, including just one interception in that span.


“Playing defense in this league is difficult, but if you don’t play with great detail and you make too many mistakes, it can look like it looked on Sunday,” defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said, referencing the Cardinals’ Week 18 loss to Seattle. The Seahawks rushed for 202 yards and scored 38 points, the most Arizona allowed all season. “We have to get back to playing clean football; coaching better, playing better, that’s the key. When our defense does those things well, we’re a hard out for offenses. If we play 55 snaps of good football and three or four snaps of bad football, it can mean 21 points, and that’s the stress of playing defense against good people.”


Those are all areas in which Watt could help. He played at least 46 defensive snaps in each of his six full games before getting injured. And while it would be naive to expect him to handle a normal workload if he were to play Monday, Watt is enough of a pass-rush threat to force the Rams’ offensive line to have to account for him. That potentially frees up teammates such as Chandler Jones or Markus Golden. Watt had just one sack this season, but was credited with 27 pressures (per Pro Football Focus), including five in the Cardinals’ Week 4 win over the Rams.


Luckily we just jettisoned our leading tackler from last season!

That sounds good! I'd love to see the comparative #'s with and without Watt. I'm also incredibly skeptical of any statistic that would indicate the Cards having a top run D.


Finally - “There was never a moment that I didn’t consider it realistic. If I did, it wouldn’t work. I had to truly believe it every second for it to work,” Watt said. “The only thing that matters to me is being out there for my teammates, trying to help us win a game and get us to the end goal. Because that’s what this is all about. I’m not doing all this work and trying to come back in half the time for no reason.”

If only the rest of the team had half the heart of Watt... :(
Chris, I thought we had the Watt of old in those first few games. My goodness, he was good. Maybe not numbers, but leadership and impact made a ton of impact.
 
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kerouac9

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Some cool game-charting data:
91% of our offense was out of shotgun or pistol - 3rd in the NFL
We ranked 5th in first-down run rate (53% of the time)
We ranked 3rd in RPOs (21% of the time)
Defensively we played man coverage 28% of the time (19th)
We played CB by sides 86% of the time (6th)
Offensively we were 6th in play action but 31st in offensive motion.

Teams did not respect our running game at all. The average box we faced had 6.23 defenders in it (31st)
 

Jetstream Green

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My guy. Watt played 341 snaps and seven games. Depending on his 34-year-old body to make it through a 12th NFL season when he's managed to place a full schedule twice in the past six years is basically admitting defeat.

Many (including me!) were saying early in the season that we needed to do a better job managing Watt's snap count to help him last the year. He had a 100% stop rate on run plays his way last year. That's freaking cool! He had as many QB hits as Markus Golden. Also great!

But I'm not depending on him to play 17 games. You can't. There has to be a different option. We weren't good because he was playing a small share of our games, and we weren't bad because he wasn't.

Also, I put no stake in J.J. Watt's leadership attributes. It's not like he wasn't around the building and on the sideline during the collapse. It's not like that 2020 Houston Texans team when he last played 16 games didn't go 4-12 and have the 30th ranked scoring defense in the NFL. J.J. Watt is inspirational to certain people, but there's little evidence with it comes to wins and losses that he is so to his teammates.
Didn't our secondary take some hits at the same time. I know some would say Marco Wilson or Alford is nothing special but even losing them affected this defense if I recall correctly
 

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Teams did not respect our running game at all. The average box we faced had 6.23 defenders in it (31st)

i suspect some of that is because the Cards have to be up there in terms of 11 and 10 personnel groupings

but -- even then, the Cards have to make teams pay for light boxes -- especially when you have a QB who can be explosive in the running game
 

Chopper0080

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Some cool game-charting data:
91% of our offense was out of shotgun or pistol - 3rd in the NFL
We ranked 5th in first-down run rate (53% of the time)
We ranked 3rd in RPOs (21% of the time)
Defensively we played man coverage 28% of the time (19th)
We played CB by sides 86% of the time (6th)
Offensively we were 6th in play action but 31st in offensive motion.

Teams did not respect our running game at all. The average box we faced had 6.23 defenders in it (31st)
Really like the play action rank. Disappointed by the motion but I feel that is QB based. Would prefer a higher % of snaps under C for diversity sake. 20% would be a huge leap but a 80/20 split would be nice to see.
 
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kerouac9

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Kyler was 20th in Percentage of plays with pressure (27.4%). He has above-average savoir faire -- 9th in the differential between DVOA with pressure (-41.1%) and without pressure (51.2%).

The Cards love playing their guys in a locked-in position. Rondale Moore (82%) and Chrstian Kirk (80%) ranked in the Top 20 receivers for highest slot/wide ratio (Moore lined up outside 11 times in all of 2021). A.J. Green ranked second (81%) and DHop ranked sixth (76%) in highest wide/slot ratio for receivers.

Cards were 5th in lowest percentage of passes dropped.

Marco Wilson was 4th in first downs/TDs allowed in coverage (33). Also 16th in passing yards allowed in coverage. The good news is that most of those were air yards, because he ranked 7th in YAC allowed.

It didn't show up in the stat sheet in the sacks column, but Chandler Jones ranked among the top 20 in run tackles for loss, fewest average yards on run tackle, QB hits (7th), and QB knockdowns.
 
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