Workout warriors vs. saturday production

[Cbus cardsfan]

Every year there are guys who shoot up the draft boards because of their workout numbers.On the other side, you have guys who were considered very productive college players, and excellent pro prospects, that fall down the board because of a poor 40 time or bad workout. This year the workout guys that are shooting up the board are Connor Barwin, Robert Ayers, Josh Freeman,BJ Raji,and Clay Mathews. Guys who stocks are falling are Malcolm Jenkins, Michael Oher, Rey Mauluaga, James Laurinitis, Andre Smith, and Knowshon Moreno.

Go back to January and tell me which list of players you'd prefer. I find it almost inconcievable that Robert Ayers or Connor Barwin would be off the board before Rey Mauluaga or Knowshon Moreno but that could easily be the case. I'm seeing Barwin and Ayers as top 20 picks these days. Heck,i've seen all go in the top 25. At the same time, i just saw a mock with the Cards selecting Oher at 31 and it was from a reputable guy in Frank Coyle.It's common to see Moreno, or even Wells at 31.

If you're running a team, what would you rather have, a guy with the raw athletic ability that with NFL coaching could become a beast or the guy who performed at a high level on Saturdays and projects well to the NFL? There are good cases that can be made for each. Guys who shot up the bard recently because of workouts that are productive include DRC, DeMarcus Ware, Phillip Rivers, and Jerod Mayo. Then you have the failures in guys like Mamula, Vernon Davis,the safety Miami yook from Tennessee a couple years ago and Gholston(so far)( that hurts).

 

[lobo]

The best thing that could happen for the Cards is a whole lot of workout warrioirs shoot up the draft....this will give us a shot at the best back available if that the route the team takes.

 

[Zeno]

If you're running a team, what would you rather have, a guy with the raw athletic ability that with NFL coaching could become a beast or the guy who performed at a high level on Saturdays and projects well to the NFL? There are good cases that can be made for each. Guys who shot up the bard recently because of workouts that are productive include DRC, DeMarcus Ware, Phillip Rivers, and Jerod Mayo. Then you have the failures in guys like Mamula, Vernon Davis,the safety Miami yook from Tennessee a couple years ago and Gholston(so far)( that hurts).

I'd take the productive college guy who also has the NFL measurables and intangibles over the guy with all the measurables and freakish athletic ability but little production to back it up.

Also I wouldn't put Phillip Rivers in the workout warrior category, he was one of the most efficient and productive QBs in NCAA history(and took his team to 4 bowl games)...he was always going to be a first rounder.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Also I wouldn't put Phillip Rivers in the workout warrior category, he was one of the most efficient and productive QBs in NCAA history(and took his team to 4 bowl games)...he was always going to be a first rounder.

If you look back, Rivers was more considered a 2nd/3rd round guy until he worked out and had a great Senior Bowl week. That's where Schottenheimer fell in love with him. There were questions about his throwing motion and arm strength but once he got in front of scouts then he won them over. He's proven to be worth it. I remember saying he'd be the biggest bust of the draft and would never take him .

 

[WildBB]

Every year there are guys who shoot up the draft boards because of their workout numbers.On the other side, you have guys who were considered very productive college players, and excellent pro prospects, that fall down the board because of a poor 40 time or bad workout. This year the workout guys that are shooting up the board are Connor Barwin, Robert Ayers, Josh Freeman,BJ Raji,and Clay Mathews. Guys who stocks are falling are Malcolm Jenkins, Michael Oher, Rey Mauluaga, James Laurinitis, Andre Smith, and Knowshon Moreno.

Much of the time dominant players don't need to "put out" 100% against inferior competition. Even in the better conferences to a lesser extent. Someone like Oher hardly had to work up a sweat sometime to compete well, he's just so physically gifted you wonder how hard he had to work.

On the opposite side, some of the workout wonders like Michael Johnson, the flavor of the moment a few weeks back, has come back down to earth somewhat after further critique.

It all balances out somewhat. Some go higher in the draft then they should and some fall more probably then they should. Then everyone raves, "we got a steal here". It's all about who fits where, when in the draft process. Once they're taken the player has to start from point zero anyway, just like the rest of the draft class, make the team, start producing, then crack the lineup and be a solid contributor.

 

[perivolaki]

I'd take the productive college guy who also has the NFL measurables and intangibles over the guy with all the measurables and freakish athletic ability but little production to back it up.

Also I wouldn't put Phillip Rivers in the workout warrior category, he was one of the most efficient and productive QBs in NCAA history(and took his team to 4 bowl games)...he was always going to be a first rounder.

It's a 50/50 proposition in my mind. Look at our own DRC who played for a small school and was barely on the radar before he opened eyes with an unbelievable combine. I think he did OK.

 

[WildBB]

It's a 50/50 proposition in my mind. Look at our own DRC who played for a small school and was barely on the radar before he opened eyes with an unbelievable combine. I think he did OK.

For the most part he's the exception. For every DRC there are 10 duds.

Anyone hear how Molden (Browns) did last yr? Who were some of the other fast risers last year?

 

[earthsci]

It's a 50/50 proposition in my mind. Look at our own DRC who played for a small school and was barely on the radar before he opened eyes with an unbelievable combine. I think he did OK.

To be fair to DRC I think that the scouts started taking notice of him during Senior Bowl Week and at the game.

 

[Zeno]

It's a 50/50 proposition in my mind. Look at our own DRC who played for a small school and was barely on the radar before he opened eyes with an unbelievable combine. I think he did OK.

DRC was also productive in college albeit not at the top level of competition. I questioned his level of competition and my biggest worry with him was his weight.

Same goes for Ware, he was a very productive college player but at a smaller school and I think his workouts only caused teams to look at his tape closer.

The guys I worry about are guys who have excellent workouts but didn't produce the numbers on the field that their measurables would suggest they would.

 

[WildBB]

To be fair to DRC I think that the scouts started taking notice of him during Senior Bowl Week and at the game.

Ayers had a very good Senior Bowl. That put him on the rise , but he hasn't followed it up with the workouts the way DRC separated himself.

It all counts. Especially the games themselves. At this next level the players improvement ability needs to be evaluated further. If they excell it shows something about their drive, hunger and dedication that some others may not show so much of.

The bottom line is talent though, can it be enhanced or is there a good chance it can be overmatched at the NFL level is the next question that needs to be answered in the whole process. Many times teams get luckier than they should, but it all involves hard work evaluating players. And obviously how willing the players are to work hard.

Then balancing that all out with the natural ability. It;s hard sometimes to match that all up and find a real gem. When you hit on them, like the Breastons of the draft, it's a great feeling, where talent, team fit and player desire to excell all mesh well, and you have a hit instead of a miss.

At that next level, any level really, it boils down to the ability to make outstanding plays. Whoever does it better plays, who doesn't sits, in the simplest form.

Point is, maybe Ayers excells at the NFL level and maybe he doesn't. There are too many factors that come into play and in the end it's nearly impossible to measure the drive inside the player to excell. How bad do they WANT IT. How bad will they continue to WANT IT. DRC's script is just beginning.

 

[Skkorpion]

I'd take the productive college guy who also has the NFL measurables and intangibles over the guy with all the measurables and freakish athletic ability but little production to back it up.

Also I wouldn't put Phillip Rivers in the workout warrior category, he was one of the most efficient and productive QBs in NCAA history(and took his team to 4 bowl games)...he was always going to be a first rounder.

Right on both points.

And Cbus, you seem to agree yet violated your own rule by choosing to ignore Rivers' stunning career numbers in college, putting your faith in sheep who downgraded him because of a throwing motion they didn't like.

Good thread.

 

[perivolaki]

For the most part he's the exception. For every DRC there are 10 duds.

Anyone hear how Molden (Browns) did last yr? Who were some of the other fast risers last year?

Thats fair.

OK how about top producers who somewhat disappoint at the combine like Laurinaitus?

Many are downgrading him because of a slow 40 time at the combine. He did run faster at the OSU pro day though.

While he ran slow I thought he looked great in the drills. From my perspective he was the most fluid linebacker out there and his change of direction was top notch.

I think Laurinaitus slides but still is a productive NFL player in spite of the slow 40 times.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Right on both points.

And Cbus, you seem to agree yet violated your own rule by choosing to ignore Rivers' stunning career numbers in college, putting your faith in sheep who downgraded him because of a throwing motion they didn't like.

Good thread.

i thought Rivers was a total system QB and thought he'd be another Danny Wuerfel.But you're right, he was very productive in college.I just never saw him throw a pass more than 8 yards downfield. I know you liked him from the get go.Good call.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Dude... If Rey Maualuga is there at #31 then this league is a bunch of crack fiends.

 

[JeffGollin]

It Doesn't Have to Be One the Other...

It's not a matter of Workout Warrior or Saturday Production - you use one factor to help fill in blanks about the other:

If a guy wows you on tape - but the book on him is that he's too slow or lacks agility or explosion - terrific workout scores can correct that misperception.

Similarly, if a guy flying below your radar screen surprises the world by running a 4.29 forty or leading his fellow position players in the 3-Cone, at the very least it will make most scouts revisit the game-tape to see what it was (if anything) they missed.

In other words, the 2 factors (workouts and game production) should work in tandem - not against one another.

Here's an example - I remember watching a number of Rutgers games and being impressed by a CB named Jason McCourt. I then forgot all about him, and he wasn't ranked very high on any major draft lists. It turns out he ran a 4.30 on his Pro Day. Bingo! That got my attention - not because a dude ran a 4.30 and that somehow makes him good; but rather that his production impressed me and the 4.30 confirmed he had something going for him. (Hey Skkorp - did you have the same feeling about Notre Damer, Terrail Lambert? - It's the same kind of deal).

 

[WildBB]

Thats fair.

OK how about top producers who somewhat disappoint at the combine like Laurinaitus?

Many are downgrading him because of a slow 40 time at the combine. He did run faster at the OSU pro day though.

While he ran slow I thought he looked great in the drills. From my perspective he was the most fluid linebacker out there and his change of direction was top notch.

I think Laurinaitus slides but still is a productive NFL player in spite of the slow 40 times.

He should be productive. He's going near the top of his class. He has great attitude and leaves it all out there all the time. He should be fine depending on how he's used.

 

[Shogun]

It's not a matter of Workout Warrior or Saturday Production - you use one factor to help fill in blanks about the other:

If a guy wows you on tape - but the book on him is that he's too slow or lacks agility or explosion - terrific workout scores can correct that misperception.

Similarly, if a guy flying below your radar screen surprises the world by running a 4.29 forty or leading his fellow position players in the 3-Cone, at the very least it will make most scouts revisit the game-tape to see what it was (if anything) they missed.

In other words, the 2 factors (workouts and game production) should work in tandem - not against one another.

Ding ding ding.

But in regards of why the more athletic guys tend to become more popular in the offseason is because everyone is BSF in the NFL. A player can be real productive in college and seem to project well, but in reality can't because he simply wasn't athletic or explosive enough to hang consistently. Picture perfect example of this is Ron Dayne.

 

[Shogun]

Another thing, some of the best football guys turn to total crap when it comes to the Combine stuff. You can tell some of them never ran track in their life.