"Worst pass defense in the NFL"

[TJ]

So what do you make of 7-1?

We lost one game?!?!? Dammit, season is over....

 

[kerouac9]

I think that the "worst pass defense" metric is relevant because it may speak to how sustainable the current success of the defense is. It's kind of like advanced metrics: Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings "hate" the Cards because the defense surrenders a ton of yards 19th overall in the NFL as well as 32nd against the pass, and the offense doesn't run on or head of schedule.

Those stats add up to what would seem like a mirage or outlier. If you give up enough yards, teams are eventually going to find the end zone against you. An offense can't survive if it has to convert third-and-eight-plus as often as we seem to.

The upside is that there's no law saying that we can't be a team that is an outlier, and the rate stats that a lot of people are pointing to provide an excellent solution to that problem. I also think that there's an averages problem working against us where we've had a QB like Peyton Manning destroy us through the air, but we barely kept Brandon Weeden under 200 yards.

 

[BigRedRage]

Those stats add up to what would seem like a mirage or outlier. If you give up enough yards, teams are eventually going to find the end zone against you. An offense can't survive if it has to convert third-and-eight-plus as often as we seem to.

Rankings after 8 games vs NFL:
#5 Third Down Efficiency 45.4%

 

[kerouac9]

Rankings after 8 games vs NFL:
#5 Third Down Efficiency 45.4%

Right. And it's something that I expected the Cards to improve upon after really struggling last season.

Mostly, I think it's the down-and-distance situation that is troubling. We seem to face a lot of 2nd and 10s or 2nd and 8s. You really want to get 4+ yards on first down to stay ahead of schedule.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I think that the "worst pass defense" metric is relevant because it may speak to how sustainable the current success of the defense is. It's kind of like advanced metrics: Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings "hate" the Cards because the defense surrenders a ton of yards 19th overall in the NFL as well as 32nd against the pass, and the offense doesn't run on or head of schedule.

Those stats add up to what would seem like a mirage or outlier. If you give up enough yards, teams are eventually going to find the end zone against you. An offense can't survive if it has to convert third-and-eight-plus as often as we seem to.

The upside is that there's no law saying that we can't be a team that is an outlier, and the rate stats that a lot of people are pointing to provide an excellent solution to that problem. I also think that there's an averages problem working against us where we've had a QB like Peyton Manning destroy us through the air, but we barely kept Brandon Weeden under 200 yards.

Good post.

I just don't think it is a mirage, but just more how we play defense and that is with a "bend, but don't break" mentality. Them mix in that teams have to pass to gain yardage on this team and it makes sense. Ultimately you just can't drop back too many times against this team without making mistakes and it has been proven time and again throughout this season.

 

[JCSunsfan]

All these are interpreted from the positive for the defense perspective.

#1` (Tied) for first in interceptions. (12)
#11 in average yards per attempt (7.4)
#14 in completion percentage against (62.8)
#8 in pass attempts against the defense (320)
#11 (tie) in TD's scored against pass defense. (13)
#7 in opposing QB passer rating. (83.1)

This "worst pass defense in the NFL" only has one more TD scored against it than it does interceptions. Compare that to the "best pass defense in the NFL" in KC that has given up 13 TD's to 4 INT's.

 

[Mulli]

I think that the "worst pass defense" metric is relevant because it may speak to how sustainable the current success of the defense is. It's kind of like advanced metrics: Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings "hate" the Cards because the defense surrenders a ton of yards 19th overall in the NFL as well as 32nd against the pass, and the offense doesn't run on or head of schedule.

Those stats add up to what would seem like a mirage or outlier. If you give up enough yards, teams are eventually going to find the end zone against you. An offense can't survive if it has to convert third-and-eight-plus as often as we seem to.

The upside is that there's no law saying that we can't be a team that is an outlier, and the rate stats that a lot of people are pointing to provide an excellent solution to that problem. I also think that there's an averages problem working against us where we've had a QB like Peyton Manning destroy us through the air, but we barely kept Brandon Weeden under 200 yards.

Weeden had only 103 yards until the final garbage time drive.

Finished with 183.

 

[NJCardFan]

Weeden had only 103 yards until the final garbage time drive.

Finished with 183.

And Bryant had zero catches as well. Regardless at who was at QB that is an impressive stat.

 

[NJCardFan]

Good post.

I just don't think it is a mirage, but just more how we play defense and that is with a "bend, but don't break" mentality. Them mix in that teams have to pass to gain yardage on this team and it makes sense. Ultimately you just can't drop back too many times against this team without making mistakes and it has been proven time and again throughout this season.

As I said in another thread a while back, this team is reminding me of the 2011 Giants. Their defense was similar to ours, worse actually. They not only gave up a lot of yards but gave up a lot of points. Offensively they were pretty good scoring a lot of points and this is without any type of running game(32 in the league). That's not going to make the Eli haters happy but like it or not, they got to and won that Super Bowl on his arm. But we're not letting teams score. Only Denver has scored more than 20 and only 3 teams have scored more than 17 on us all season. That's the reason we're 7-1.

 

[kerouac9]

Rankings after 8 games vs NFL:
#5 Third Down Efficiency 45.4%

Just to expand on this a little bit, ProFootballReference has an awesome tool for team splits:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/crd/2014_splits.htm

Our team completion percentage on first down is 46.2%, our average rush on first down is for 2.6 yards, and our average 2nd down distance is 9.25.

Stunningly, our average distance for first down on third down is 7.76 yards, and our average yards on third down is 9.47. That's as amazing as it may be unsustainable.

When you compare that to a league-average offense like Cincy's: their completion percentage on first down is 79.1%, 3.9 YPC on first down, and average a 2nd-and-7. They average a full 3 yards fewer to gain on third down.

 

[Cardiac]

Just to expand on this a little bit, ProFootballReference has an awesome tool for team splits:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/crd/2014_splits.htm

Our team completion percentage on first down is 46.2%, our average rush on first down is for 2.6 yards, and our average 2nd down distance is 9.25.

Stunningly, our average distance for first down on third down is 7.76 yards, and our average yards on third down is 9.47. That's as amazing as it may be unsustainable.

When you compare that to a league-average offense like Cincy's: their completion percentage on first down is 79.1%, 3.9 YPC on first down, and average a 2nd-and-7. They average a full 3 yards fewer to gain on third down.

This is a fun discussion. Part of the reason we are keeping drives alive are the penalties called on the opposition. We lead the league with 1st downs via penalty with 29. That brings up two points of discussion for me.

I think the way BA is so aggressive with his play calling by attacking with deep and 20 + yard throws puts pressure on D's and with the ref's focusing on calling any kind of pass interference/holding/hands to face etc penalties it helps us convert on these 3rd and longs at a higher rate. Factor in we do have a very good WR group and CP is playing great and does complete more long passes than many QB's (certainly feels this way to me) in these situations and you have some explanation.

Not sure it's sustainable at a 45% clip, especially needing 7.76 yds. on avg. but I don't expect a major drop off.

2nd point is that IMHO we have too many fans that think we are getting the short end from the refs as far as penalties called against us and not the enemy. I know the Philly game last year was horrible but for the most part it's even or maybe even to the point we get the benefit more often than not this season.

 

[football karma]

there have been long stretches in several games this year ( usually the 3rd quarter ) where it feels like the offense is in 2nd and 11+ every single series -- be it a 3 yard loss on a running play, a penalty or something else bad on 1st down.

part of me wonders if there is something tipping certain running plays ---

 

[Hollywood]

The problem with stats is that they only tell part of the story. That is why you can almost always find a stat to support any argument.

The reality is that all our stats=7-1.
Why not just skip to the solution? Its the only one that really matters.