Passing plus/minus is a stat we annually track to help provide context to completion percentage. Given the location of a quarterback's passes, it compares his completion percentage in each area to historical baselines. This stat does not consider passes listed as "Thrown Away," "Tipped at Line," "Miscommunication," or "Quarterback Hit in Motion" by Sports Info Solutions charting. Metrics are based on how often a pass is completed based on the pass distance, the distance required for a first down, and whether the ball was thrown to the left, middle, or right side of the field. This is a counting stat, so more attempts are obviously a great thing for the purposes of what we're talking about here. Our Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) numbers may differ from other models around the Internet.
So far, Murray is leading the 2020s. He has taken a step forward each season, seeing his CPOE rise 0.5% to 3.9% to 6.3% as he has developed and grown in Kliff Kingbury's offense. Murray was second behind only Joe Burrow in terms of on-target passes last season, and that's not solely because of a diet of short passes. Murray wasn't just taking the empty calories of ten thousand dumpoffs to James Conner and shooting up the leaderboards; his connections with Christian Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins ranked third and sixth in plus/minus for quarterback-receiver pairs with an average depth of target of at least 10.0 yards. Yes, it looks like Kyler Murray will be the Drew Brees of the 2020s, and we should all be prepared for his upcoming dominance.
Well, no. It's more complicated than that, so let's dig into the data a bit. Here's where last year's quarterbacks stood, ranking all 34 passers who qualified for
our leaderboards.
A Tale of Two Murrays
Murray led the league with a plus/minus of 27.4—so he completed 27.4 more passes than an average quarterback with the same types of throws would be expected to make. That is the lowest total to lead the league since we started keeping track of this in 2006, and remember, it's a counting stat—the 17th game
should have led to larger numbers. Murray missed three games this season, so it's not a surprise that
his total wasn't higher, but it is noteworthy that no one with a full 17-game season could top his total. Murray's 6.3% CPOE was better than 2020's leader, Deshaun Watson at 5.5%, but we're used to seeing the best passer in a given season up in the 7% or 8% range with Brees or Peyton Manning leading the way. Murray didn't win with a dominant season; he had a very good season in a year where no one destroyed the competition. That's not to take anything away from Murray, but it is interesting that we set an all-time low in a counting stat
after expanding the schedule.
Murray's year was also very much a tale of two halves. In Weeks 1 to 8, Murray had a +22.1 plus/minus and a 9.4% CPOE; he was on pace not just to lead the league, but to set records as the Cardinals roared out to their 7-0 start. Then Murray hurt his ankle against the Packers and missed three weeks. When he came back, he was not the same player. In Weeks 13 to 18, Murray had a +5.3 plus/minus and a 2.6% CPOE—both respectable, but not league-leading by any stretch of the imagination.
Murray's drop in production lines up with more than his injury. The Cardinals started using fewer four-receiver sets and spread formations. Injuries along the offensive line continued to mount. And Kingsbury's offense, as it has throughout his time as a head coach, became more predictable and easier to cover over the second half of the season. But I do think you can blame a significant chunk of the dropoff on Murray. Being banged up limits the out-of-structure freewheeling that makes him one of the more exciting quarterbacks to watch, but he was also missing easy throws in December, the kind he had no problem making in September. He built up a large enough lead over those first seven weeks that no one had a chance to catch him, but he left the door wide open for the rest of the league to get close.
And while the injuries are obviously a factor here, it's fair to note that Murray saw his CPOE drop in the second half of 2020 as well. Over the last two seasons, Murray's +36.0 plus/minus in Weeks 1 to 9 leads the league, and his 7.4% CPOE trails only Russell Wilson. From Weeks 10 to 18, those stats drop to +10.7 and 2.4% respectively—still good, but more borderline Pro Bowler rather than superstar franchise passer. The second-half swoon of Kingsbury's teams is one of the stranger splits in the NFL at the moment. If they could find a way to keep their success going past Halloween, the Cardinals would be right up there with the top Super Bowl contenders.
