Yahoo playoff capsules/predictions
- Thread starter Dback Jon
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TJ
Frank Kaminsky is my Hero.
Don't blame them. Milwaukee has one of the best, if not the best home record in all of the majors. Our home record is not to shabby either, so it is imperative that either Kennedy or Hudson help to neutralize their hitters and come home with HFA in Game 3.
IMO, we are dead man walking if we don't take one of two.
IMO, we are dead man walking if we don't take one of two.
OP
OP
Only 2 of 24 pick DBacks to win on ESPN.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2011/story/_/id/7036552/mlb-espn-postseason-predictions
http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2011/story/_/id/7036552/mlb-espn-postseason-predictions
Homer Simpson
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Ah, a bunch of people that think they're doing research because they notice Milwaukee's glittering home record and feel they don't have to look any further. Of course, if they just did a little more research they'd realize that:
A) The Brewers played a whopping 64 games against teams with 90 or more losses. This isn't really a surprise, considering that three teams within their division had 90+ losses. However, what may be surprising is that the Brewers went 48-16 (.750) in these 64 games, and only 48-50 against teams that had less than 90 losses. Half of their wins came against teams that played .444 ball or worse.
B) If you extend it to teams with losing records, not necessarily 90+ losses, the Brewers played 101 such games and went 69-32 (.683) in those games, while only going 27-34 (.442) against teams that won more than they lost.
C) The D-backs, meanwhile, also did well against teams with 90+ losses, as is to be expected, however, the difference wasn't as extreme as the Brewers. First, the D-backs only played in 51 such games, and went 34-17 (.667), while going 60-51 (.541) against teams with under 90 losses.
D) As far as playing losing teams, the D-backs did so 98 times, and compiled a 62-36 (.633) in those games, while going 32-32 (.500) against teams that won more than they lost.
The D-backs record against teams with winning records is better than the Brewers record against teams in which the only qualification is that they didn't lose 90 games. Maybe the Brew Crew aren't as strong as people think.
A) The Brewers played a whopping 64 games against teams with 90 or more losses. This isn't really a surprise, considering that three teams within their division had 90+ losses. However, what may be surprising is that the Brewers went 48-16 (.750) in these 64 games, and only 48-50 against teams that had less than 90 losses. Half of their wins came against teams that played .444 ball or worse.
B) If you extend it to teams with losing records, not necessarily 90+ losses, the Brewers played 101 such games and went 69-32 (.683) in those games, while only going 27-34 (.442) against teams that won more than they lost.
C) The D-backs, meanwhile, also did well against teams with 90+ losses, as is to be expected, however, the difference wasn't as extreme as the Brewers. First, the D-backs only played in 51 such games, and went 34-17 (.667), while going 60-51 (.541) against teams with under 90 losses.
D) As far as playing losing teams, the D-backs did so 98 times, and compiled a 62-36 (.633) in those games, while going 32-32 (.500) against teams that won more than they lost.
The D-backs record against teams with winning records is better than the Brewers record against teams in which the only qualification is that they didn't lose 90 games. Maybe the Brew Crew aren't as strong as people think.
Homer Simpson
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Furthermore, in their 27-5 stretch from July 26th through August 28th, they compiled the following records against their opponents:
Pirates: 5-2
Cubs: 6-0
Astros: 6-0
Cardinals: 4-2
Dodgers: 3-1
Mets: 3-0
So, they went 20-2 against teams losing teams in that stretch and 7-3 (admittedly, pretty good, but not phenomenal over such a short stretch) against teams that finished with winning records in that span.
It's even worse when you consider that the "winning" teams weren't considered winning teams at the time. The Dodgers were 55-65 when they faced Milwaukee during this stretch, and the Cardinals swept the Brewers in three as soon as this stretch was done.
The Brew Crew are a good team, but one that looks like a great team because they beat up on the little guys.
To be fair, the D-backs' two impressive runs -- 13-1 in May and 18-3 in August/September -- were done mainly against subpar teams.
Pirates: 5-2
Cubs: 6-0
Astros: 6-0
Cardinals: 4-2
Dodgers: 3-1
Mets: 3-0
So, they went 20-2 against teams losing teams in that stretch and 7-3 (admittedly, pretty good, but not phenomenal over such a short stretch) against teams that finished with winning records in that span.
It's even worse when you consider that the "winning" teams weren't considered winning teams at the time. The Dodgers were 55-65 when they faced Milwaukee during this stretch, and the Cardinals swept the Brewers in three as soon as this stretch was done.
The Brew Crew are a good team, but one that looks like a great team because they beat up on the little guys.
To be fair, the D-backs' two impressive runs -- 13-1 in May and 18-3 in August/September -- were done mainly against subpar teams.
Here's a prediction. Kennedy dominates, and we win game 1.
Here's my explanation, see, unlike the experts I backup my predictions with data, not just super-cool 1 liners like "Upton gon' make them boys cry for their momma!" like the experts.
Kennedy doesn't get rattled and he doesn't feel pressure. He just doesn't. Just like in his 2nd to last start, he got rocked in the 1st inning, but it should have been worse, he held them to 4 runs and then absolutely dominated the rest of the game, and oh by the way, we still won. When other pitchers would have been rattled and removed from the game, Kennedy didn't even sweat it, he just went back out and started throwing darts and shut them down the next 5 innings while we caught up. That's what Aces' do.
The Brewers have all the pressure here. They got their homefield, they have ALL the experts picking them. Their fan base is exceedingly arrogant. They are all set up for a 1 and done situation, and their team is just as green as ours. I mean cmon, the Brewers aren't exactly annual playoff contenders here.
I'm not unrealistic, they have us with Braun and Fielder, I will give them that. We dont have a 1-2 punch that can match that production. I still feel our pitching is superior, Hudson is due for a dominant outing and we have every bit as good a chance to win this series as the Brewers do. It's not just a gut-feeling anymore, it's a fact. Look at what this team has done all season long. They get in games they have no business winning, and they pull it out. They get in holes that are impossible to dig out of, and we do it with 2 outs in the 10th inning. We just dont quit, EVER. That counts for something in the end, even if it doesn't show up on a stat sheet.
If "experts" were picking as baseball men, this series would be split, because seriously, honestly, how can you bet against this Dbacks team after everything that just happened in the season? They will though, because they are all still pissed because ALL of them picked the Dbacks to be irrelevant this season, so they are annoyed by our mere presence in the postseason and will root against us every step of the way in a feeble hope that at some point they can say; "See! I told you the Dbacks sucked, I mean yeah they won their division and won 90+ games and they gave the Brewers a fight in the playoffs but they lost, and I said they would lose, so see, in a round about way, I WAS TOTALLY RIGHT BROS!"
And oh btw, the Brews fans keep counting something as a strength, but I believe it's not, if anything, it could be a strength for US. They keep throwing our attendance for the year in our face and talking about how their park has been sold out all year. Well guess what dude, your team may have that: "We got the city behind us." attitude going, but how's that gonna help you on the field? The Dbacks have a; "Yeah, we know half the stadium is empty but screw it, we're gonna win anyway, FOR US." mentality. Having the city behind you is nice, but having your team behind you is better and more dangerous.
DBacks in 4 and I have all the reasons I need to believe that is possible. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but this aint no open-and-shut case. I mean looking at mlb.com and espn.com, more guys are picking the Cards to beat the Phillies than are picking us to beat the Brewers, how objective is that?
I hope it's a Dbacks/Cardinals NLCS, so I can rejoice in my team's success, and so I can listen to the "experts" make excuses for how this happened. Oh wait I forgot, experts are never wrong because when they are wrong, they just laugh and say "That's Baseball! HAHAHAH LOL ROFL ILUVCATZ"
so that's my line if my prediction is not correct, it's not that I was wrong, "That's Baseball!"
GO DBACKS!
Here's my explanation, see, unlike the experts I backup my predictions with data, not just super-cool 1 liners like "Upton gon' make them boys cry for their momma!" like the experts.
Kennedy doesn't get rattled and he doesn't feel pressure. He just doesn't. Just like in his 2nd to last start, he got rocked in the 1st inning, but it should have been worse, he held them to 4 runs and then absolutely dominated the rest of the game, and oh by the way, we still won. When other pitchers would have been rattled and removed from the game, Kennedy didn't even sweat it, he just went back out and started throwing darts and shut them down the next 5 innings while we caught up. That's what Aces' do.
The Brewers have all the pressure here. They got their homefield, they have ALL the experts picking them. Their fan base is exceedingly arrogant. They are all set up for a 1 and done situation, and their team is just as green as ours. I mean cmon, the Brewers aren't exactly annual playoff contenders here.
I'm not unrealistic, they have us with Braun and Fielder, I will give them that. We dont have a 1-2 punch that can match that production. I still feel our pitching is superior, Hudson is due for a dominant outing and we have every bit as good a chance to win this series as the Brewers do. It's not just a gut-feeling anymore, it's a fact. Look at what this team has done all season long. They get in games they have no business winning, and they pull it out. They get in holes that are impossible to dig out of, and we do it with 2 outs in the 10th inning. We just dont quit, EVER. That counts for something in the end, even if it doesn't show up on a stat sheet.
If "experts" were picking as baseball men, this series would be split, because seriously, honestly, how can you bet against this Dbacks team after everything that just happened in the season? They will though, because they are all still pissed because ALL of them picked the Dbacks to be irrelevant this season, so they are annoyed by our mere presence in the postseason and will root against us every step of the way in a feeble hope that at some point they can say; "See! I told you the Dbacks sucked, I mean yeah they won their division and won 90+ games and they gave the Brewers a fight in the playoffs but they lost, and I said they would lose, so see, in a round about way, I WAS TOTALLY RIGHT BROS!"
And oh btw, the Brews fans keep counting something as a strength, but I believe it's not, if anything, it could be a strength for US. They keep throwing our attendance for the year in our face and talking about how their park has been sold out all year. Well guess what dude, your team may have that: "We got the city behind us." attitude going, but how's that gonna help you on the field? The Dbacks have a; "Yeah, we know half the stadium is empty but screw it, we're gonna win anyway, FOR US." mentality. Having the city behind you is nice, but having your team behind you is better and more dangerous.
DBacks in 4 and I have all the reasons I need to believe that is possible. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but this aint no open-and-shut case. I mean looking at mlb.com and espn.com, more guys are picking the Cards to beat the Phillies than are picking us to beat the Brewers, how objective is that?
I hope it's a Dbacks/Cardinals NLCS, so I can rejoice in my team's success, and so I can listen to the "experts" make excuses for how this happened. Oh wait I forgot, experts are never wrong because when they are wrong, they just laugh and say "That's Baseball! HAHAHAH LOL ROFL ILUVCATZ"
so that's my line if my prediction is not correct, it's not that I was wrong, "That's Baseball!"
GO DBACKS!
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Ian Kennedy wins game one. That, to me, is a given. After that, it's a freaking tossup down the line. Hudson in game two can choke early..likely it seems. Brewers best home pitcher is going first on the road. Weird lineup setups...I like it. Keeps everyone on their toes.
If it DOES go five, we have Kennedy pitching again on full rest. Can't be sad about that, but also can't rely on it either.
If it DOES go five, we have Kennedy pitching again on full rest. Can't be sad about that, but also can't rely on it either.
TJ
Frank Kaminsky is my Hero.
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