Originally posted by KingLouieLouie
I'll preview pitchers tomorrow...........
Well, I did not preview the pitchers the following day, but will now....
STARTING ROTATION
1) Randy Johnson
The "Big Unit"....please refer to one of the comments on what I made about Steve Finley....I know I sound like the "Master of the Obvious" on this, but how Johnson performs will dictate the succes/failure of the Dbacks '04 season...Will he revert back to his pre '03 form? If he even does at least by 60%, then the Dbacks should lock-up clinching the NL West....He must average around 7 innings a game to save the bull-pen at least every 5th day since they might be over-burdened.... I expect him to compile around 16-18 victories and around 190+ Ks, with an ERA around 3.45..... If the Dbacks are out of contention by Aug, he might be traded...However, that may change with what was announced on how the Dbacks will create more revenue....
2) Brandon Webb
He easily should have been the NL ROY, but unfortunately he didnt amount as many victories he could have with the Dbacks lack of run support.... Will he suffer from the "Sophomore Jinx"?
I believe not...He has such composure/poise for someone his age and should dominate in a Dbacks uniform for years to come... He should average around 7 2/3 innings per outing this year, with his low K/BB ratio....I expect 14 victories from him and a low ERA of around 2.46.....
3) Elmer Dessens
I was disappointed that he was what the Dbacks in effect got in exchange for Durazo.... I think high expectations and lots of pressure affected Dessens over-all peformance last season...He had 2 decent years with the Reds in which he had an impressive ERA...He would dominate the earlier innings, but suddenly wear down as the game progressed....Was he out-of-shape last season? It seemed so....I saw pictures of him pitching in the Mexican League this season and he appeared to be better conditioned, which could better his stamina...He must last beyond the 5th inning this season and have several quality starts to also preserve the bullpen...He'll have around 12 victories, but cant project any other stats at this time...
4) Shane Reynolds
Who is the real "Shane Reynolds"? The one who won 19 games a few seasons ago for the Astros, or the one who got massacred a lot when he pitched at home last season at Turner Field for the Braves....A decent bargain veteran who can be an "innings eater' that if he can contribute at least 165 innings of respectable pitching, that would be sufficient from him....
5) Steve Sparks
I wanted the Dbacks to acquire Sparks since the '02 pennant-stretch since his Knuckler would have contrasted well with
Johnson's and Schilling's style...Would have caught the opposition off-guard.... He was successful for the Tigers in '01, but he didn't figure into their long-term plans, so he was regulated to "mop up" duty and then dealt to the As.... He's also a solid locker-room/dugout presence, especially with the types of pranks he pulls.... He shouldnt start the beginning of the season (wont anyways since theyre going to begin with a 4-man rotation) because his Knuckle-ball is ineffective in cooler weather (shouldnt matter of course in AZ and the dome).. But he usually came on strong during the summer months.... He has a "rubber-arm' and would be used as a spot-starter with some "mop-up" or long-relief outings along the way....
MIDDLE RELIEF
Oscar Villarreal
He was amazing last season...What else can be said? He had
86 outings as a rookie, which he might replicate that again....He had a phenomal K/BB ratio (80/46) in 98 innings and a pretty solid 2.57 ERA... He's a keeper and won't be shocked if he finds himself in the starting rotation by '05.....
Mike Koplove
Brenly must be cautious with Koplove this season...It seems he tends to go to Koplove too excessively at times, which ruined Koplove's '03 season....He should only pitch at least 2xs per wk and never an outing that last beyond 1-inning.....
Jose Valverde
"Papa Grande"....Should be closer and wont be until the Dbacks find any willing takers for Mantei....This guy is imposing and reminds me a lot of a younger Lee Smith with his mound presence...He does get too wild at times, but should improve remarkably with more experience...He's lethal....What else could be said?
CLOSER
Matt Mantei
When he finally overcame those injuries that plagued him throughout the '02 and the earlier part of the '03, he reverted back to his "Ice Man" ways with some of the most brilliant appearances.... He's very reliable (when healthy) in a closer-role, but his contract being so lucrative and Valverde on the horizon as the closer of the future, Mantei's definitely expendable...Don't know who would be willing to acquire him, but if he proves himself healthy, then the Dbacks and Twins might finally pull-off the long-rumored Mantei for Jacque Jones deal....
ARMS RACE?
Who will fill the other spots in the bull-pen? Either Parque or Randolph will be the left-handed specialist....Fossum or Lyon (acquired in the Schilling trade), and Nance (came in the Sexson deal) may make the roster..... Should be interesting to see how that materializes.... Also, Good, Patterson, or Gosling have a shot...
A lot of this could change since the Dbacks are no longing in the reducing down pay-roll mode and it's evident by the fact that they're going to be scouting Pedro Astacio w/in the next wk or so and he would be a welcomed addition to the rotation and again spare the bull-pen some innings....