Your solution for tanking

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I like Ouchie's solution but I'm not so sure about the Tolkien angle.

Hobbits man, hobbits! Isn’t that obvious?!?












My iphone’s Autocorrect is the WORST.

 

[AZ Native]

We tank, we still get screwed.

 

[Mainstreet]

HAHA despite having a masters in tax law I haven’t taken a math class since trig in high school. That said ill bet I could get the CFAs at my work to create something interesting.

Go for it Ouchie!

I will not be challenging you.

 

[Errntknght]

If we lose tonight we will be mathematically eliminated. For lottery purposes we only have to look at wins but for elimination you only have to consider losses. The rule is: when 8 teams in your conference have more wins than (82 - your_losses) you are mathematically eliminated. If we lose we'll have 48 and 82-48 = 34 and the west has nine teams with 35 or more wins. It is possible to be eliminated before that - suppose that there were 7 teams above that number and 2 with 34 wins and those two teams played each other in their remaining games, one would have to reach 35 so you're toast already. In fact, if Utah and the Nuggets play each other we are already eliminated because they both have 35 wins and if they play there will be 8 teams with 36 or more wins.

 

[Hoop Head]

If we lose tonight we will be mathematically eliminated. For lottery purposes we only have to look at wins but for elimination you only have to consider losses. The rule is: when 8 teams in your conference have more wins than (82 - your_losses) you are mathematically eliminated. If we lose we'll have 48 and 82-48 = 34 and the west has nine teams with 35 or more wins. It is possible to be eliminated before that - suppose that there were 7 teams above that number and 2 with 34 wins and those two teams played each other in their remaining games, one would have to reach 35 so you're toast already. In fact, if Utah and the Nuggets play each other we are already eliminated because they both have 35 wins and if they play there will be 8 teams with 36 or more wins.

They were mathematically eliminated after the loss to the Heat, at least that's what was reported.

https://www.foxsports.com/arizona/story/suns-overshadowed-by-heats-whiteside-030518

 

[Errntknght]

The reason I worked out the elimination equation is I was wondering how early in the season can a team be eliminated. Say that a team had 10 wins and there were three or four teams heading towards the bubble but only two can make it, which is pretty common. Teams in that condition are usually playing about .500 and the dividing line is typically around 41 wins. So with 30 games to go those bubble teams would be at about 26 wins so our 10 game winner isn't yet eliminated because 82 - 42 = 40 is above all of the bubble teams wins. At 20 games to go, the bubble teams will be around 31 wins and our 10 game winner will have 82 -52 = 30, so might well be eliminated but its not yet a lock. Of course we've seen teams win less than ten games but it's rare. Anyway, it looks like teams will rarely be eliminated with more than 20 games to play. A little more likely in the West than the East because West wins more games in W vs E competition nowdays.

 

[Errntknght]

They were mathematically eliminated after the loss to the Heat, at least that's what was reported.

https://www.foxsports.com/arizona/story/suns-overshadowed-by-heats-whiteside-030518

Yep, our 47the loss sealed our fate but I didn't know it until I looked closely at the standings as I was finishing up that post.

 

[JCSunsfan]

So I sent Adam Silver an email with Ouchie's suggest for the lottery. And I got a reply (from someone, supposedly him). Here it is. I have no idea why he thought I was a Heat fan except, well, this is probably a standard response with different names thrown in.

Dear Mr. _____, (me)

Thank you for your thoughtful suggestions regarding the draft. We have received many suggestions like this from passionate fans like you, and I appreciate you sharing your thoughts. You should know, however, that we haven’t found evidence that teams are purposely trying to lose. Intentionally losing would be met with the swiftest and harshest response possible.

Beginning with the 2019 draft, we will have a new lottery system. It gives the same odds of landing the No. 1 pick to the teams with the three worst records. We believe these changes will remove the incentive to ‘race to the bottom.’ Thanks again for taking the time to reach out and for being a fan of the Heat.

Sincerely, Adam

 

[Matt L]

Here is what I'm not getting...What is wrong with the current draft lottery system? What is the problem? What are the goals? One would think with all the talk about tanking that teams would be punished all over the place. What team has been punished by the league? What teams are sitting star players? What team has gained so much through tanking to offset their lack of attendance at games? Tanking teams already get punished.

There is a real danger by the league of being over zealous about some issue that is even hard to define. The danger is killing fan interest in lousy teams. I mean look at our board...If we made the draft completely random would we care as much what teams won or lost every night? The biggest excitement right now is about the draft and our perceived chances in it. If we didn't think we had some "edge" in the draft wouldn't many of us tune out until draft day?

I don't think there is anything wrong with the current system. Bad teams are able to get better without anything being guaranteed to them. The draft order is somewhat random and players themselves are gambles. To over purify the league they are only going to kill interest and entertaiment and STILL worry about the tanking boogyman.

I don't know if anyone has responded to you but I do think tanking overall is bad for professional sports leagues. While I understand why teams do it and I understand there are incentives in place to tank, I think it is in the interest of the league, the teams, and the fans to make rules to limit tanking instead of awarding tanking and ultimately, the local team should be trying to put the most competitive roster together every season.

I like the idea of the draft wheel. The Suns have never had a number 1 pick and this would ensure they at least get one every 30 years. Some people complain that it is unfair to the bad teams but I don't see how Cleveland receiving 4 number 1 picks in a 15 year span is fair to anyone.

 

[pokerface]

I don't know if anyone has responded to you but I do think tanking overall is bad for professional sports leagues. While I understand why teams do it and I understand there are incentives in place to tank, I think it is in the interest of the league, the teams, and the fans to make rules to limit tanking instead of awarding tanking and ultimately, the local team should be trying to put the most competitive roster together every season.

I like the idea of the draft wheel. The Suns have never had a number 1 pick and this would ensure they at least get one every 30 years. Some people complain that it is unfair to the bad teams but I don't see how Cleveland receiving 4 number 1 picks in a 15 year span is fair to anyone.

I don't think tanking is bad because we have a lottery in place and nothing is guaranteed. Plus look at all the interest in wins/losses now not only with our team but following other teams records. A lot of entertainment is going to lost trying to attain some elusive purity that will never be achieved.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I don't think tanking is bad because we have a lottery in place and nothing is guaranteed. Plus look at all the interest in wins/losses now not only with our team but following other teams records. A lot of entertainment is going to lost trying to attain some elusive purity that will never be achieved.

I have one major issue with tanking and that is what it does to the league as a whole. I'm not so much talking about the win/loss record of the team that is tanking, but what it does for the teams that are fighting for the playoffs and playoff seeding late in the season and I think this is one of the things that the commissioner hates about it. Teams essentially getting free wins because they are playing a team late in the season that is trying to lose is a pretty poopy situation, especially for the teams that are trying to catch or stay ahead of said teams in the standings.

 

[pokerface]

I have one major issue with tanking and that is what it does to the league as a whole. I'm not so much talking about the win/loss record of the team that is tanking, but what it does for the teams that are fighting for the playoffs and playoff seeding late in the season and I think this is one of the things that the commissioner hates about it. Teams essentially getting free wins because they are playing a team late in the season that is trying to lose is a pretty ****** situation, especially for the teams that are trying to catch or stay ahead of said teams in the standings.

Well that is a consideration I haven't thought of. It's just that bad teams are already bad and are just hedging. Plus let's face this...If a star player gets hurt in meaningless games they are still responsible for his contract. I think there are all kinds of considerations to this debate. I still fear that bad teams will stay bad longer because of these rule changes. Sometimes the "cure" is worse than the crime.

 

[Mainstreet]

And there is not tanking at all. I do think great organizations may not have to lose on a regular basis to be a consistent winner. The Suns used to be one of those teams.

Here is a comment from Rudy Gobert.

“Just try to teach players how to make winning plays, not only good basketball plays but winning plays,” Gobert said in explaining coach Quin Snyder’s system. “Teach every single one to help the team win games. A lot of teams are very good doing skill work, strength work. But if you want to win, you have to teach a player how to win. That's why I don't believe in tanking, all that stuff. I believe you learn how to win by winning. You don't learn how to win by losing on purpose to get a 19-year-old who you've never seen."

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/249275/Rudy-Gobert-Glad-Jazz-Didnt-Try-To-Tank

 

[pokerface]

And there is not tanking at all. I do think great organizations may not have to lose on a regular basis to be a consistent winner. The Suns used to be one of those teams.

Here is a comment from Rudy Gobert.



https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/249275/Rudy-Gobert-Glad-Jazz-Didnt-Try-To-Tank

No one is telling players to lose.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Give the winning players each $1000 cash after the game and there will be no tanking on the players part. Even if it is a pittance to them, guy are guys, when money can be won, we want to win.

 

[Mainstreet]

No one is telling players to lose.

Well... no. However players are not immune to what is going on. They constantly talk basketball.

The Jazz mostly have Mitchell, Gobert and some nice role players.

Having good ownership, GM, scouting and coaching will go a long way. The Suns had this under Jerry Colangelo.

 

[Mainstreet]

Give the winning players each $1000 cash after the game and there will be no tanking on the players part. Even if it is a pittance to them, guy are guys, when money can be won, we want to win.

The fix might be as easy as that.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The fix might be as easy as that.

Intended or not, that struck me as funny. I read his suggestion and immediately thought about gamblers entering the picture. If you can buy a player's effort one night for a thousand bucks, how much would they charge for less than max effort?

 

[Mainstreet]

Intended or not, that struck me as funny. I read his suggestion and immediately thought about gamblers entering the picture. If you can buy a player's effort one night for a thousand bucks, how much would they charge for less than max effort?

Hadn't thought about this angle. It may be going down the wrong road.

Maybe the teams pay it at the end of the season. There would probably need to be a progressive range from a $1000 on up depending upon the players. A thousand dollars is looking like pocket change for some of the wealthy players.

 

[pokerface]

Give the winning players each $1000 cash after the game and there will be no tanking on the players part. Even if it is a pittance to them, guy are guys, when money can be won, we want to win.

Each player is playing for their own contract. They don't need that $1000 pittance to make them play better. They already are trying.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Hadn't thought about this angle. It may be going down the wrong road.

Maybe the teams pay it at the end of the season. There would probably need to be a progressive range from a $1000 on up depending upon the players. A thousand dollars is looking like pocket change for some of the wealthy players.

Oh, it probably wouldn't go that way as the players have far too much riding on their performance. I was just amused by the fact it was the first thing I thought of and you brought up "the fix".

 

[Mainstreet]

Oh, it probably wouldn't go that way as the players have far too much riding on their performance. I was just amused by the fact it was the first thing I thought of and you brought up "the fix".

I will have to watch my words more closely.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I will have to watch my words more closely.

You don't like me amused?

 

[Mainstreet]

You don't like me amused?

I should have used a smiley. I try not to overload.

 

[Matt L]

I don't think tanking is bad because we have a lottery in place and nothing is guaranteed. Plus look at all the interest in wins/losses now not only with our team but following other teams records. A lot of entertainment is going to lost trying to attain some elusive purity that will never be achieved.

At micro level, I understand why a team tanks, I understand the incentives that are in place for the teams who are not in the playoff picture to tank and I do not begrudge any team, or fan who is on board with the tanking. At a macro level, I think teams actively not putting a competitive roster together and writing off seasons is bad for those team's fanbases, bad for the league and bad for the sport. I would argue the league's revenues are coming from TV Money, merchandise and ticket sales. I think having a third of the teams in full tank mode leads to less fans at those games, less fans watching on TV and less fans buying merchandise. Maybe some fans are watching to see their teams lose but I think more stop watching the games on tv and stop attending the games and stop buying merch after the all-star break.