Week 16 Elimination Scenarios, 2024 Variety

[TheCardinal]

With the conclusion of the Sunday night game (GB/SEA), I can post what I believe to be our elimination scenarios for Week 16.

We remain alive for a wildcard spot but would need to finish with a better record than Washington (and likely the NFC South runner-up as well). We would be eliminated from the wildcard next weekend with:
1) Cardinals loss OR
2) Commanders win OR
3) Cardinals/Commanders both tie

For the NFC West title, we have more options, but can be eliminated with the following:
1) Cardinals loss PLUS Rams win (though we could catch LAR at 9-8, it would require SEA to beat LAR and we couldn't win that particular tie) OR
2) Cardinals tie PLUS Rams win PLUS Seahawks win

To put it another way, to survive into Week 17, we need any of the following:
1) Cardinals win OR
2) *Rams loss OR
3) Cardinals tie with a loss by either Rams or Seahawks

*The Rams/Jets game next week is interesting since it might ultimately benefit us for the Rams to win (saves us in a 3-way tie with Seahawks/Rams at 10-7). If we're destined for 9-8, then the Rams have to lose that game.

 

[WisconsinCard]

Thank you I love reading these. Especially this late in the year, because we're still playing meaningful games. Plenty of time for draft talk after the season is over.

 

[TheCardinal]

With Green Bay beating Seattle, we got a piece of the help we'll need to win the NFC West. Here is what we still can't control.

IF WE FINISH 10-7:
- Need Seattle to lose any two games (MIN/@CHI/@LAR)
OR
- Need Seattle to lose one game, IF that game is to the Rams AND the Rams beat the Jets next week
OR
- For wildcard, have Commanders lose all three plus the NFC South runner-up not reaching 10 wins

IF WE FINISH 9-8, WITH LOSS TO PANTHERS:
- Need Rams to lose to Jets
- Need Rams to beat Seahawks
- Need Seahawks to lose to at least one of Vikings/Bears

IF WE FINISH 9-8, WITH LOSS TO RAMS: Eliminated

IF WE FINISH 9-8, WITH LOSS TO 49ERS:
- Need Rams to lose to Jets
- Need Rams to beat Seahawks
- Need Seahawks to lose to BOTH Vikings/Bears

 

[PACardsFan]

Easiest route to the playoffs is if we win out (@CAR, @LAR, vs SF), Seattle loses 2 of 3. And that’s it. Won’t matter a lick what the Rams do because losing to us would mean they lose the face to face tiebreaker against us.

 

[slanidrac16]

Yikes.
Let’s beat the Panthers….

 

[TheCardinal]

The tricky question is who to root for in the Rams/Jets game. If we are destined for 10-7, then a Rams win helps (keeps us alive should the Seahawks beat both the Vikings and Bears), and would not hurt us. However, if we lose any remaining game, a Rams win over the Jets eliminates us. Both the Cardinals and Rams are scheduled for the same early time slot next weekend.

 

[slanidrac16]

Easiest route to the playoffs is if we win out (@CAR, @LAR, vs SF), Seattle loses 2 of 3. And that’s it. Won’t matter a lick what the Rams do because losing to us would mean they lose the face to face tiebreaker against us.

Yes. If we lose 1 more game then we need a lot of things to happen which is more unlikely than us winning out.

 

[PACardsFan]

The tricky question is who to root for in the Rams/Jets game. If we are destined for 10-7, then a Rams win helps (keeps us alive should the Seahawks beat both the Vikings and Bears), and would not hurt us. However, if we lose any remaining game, a Rams win over the Jets eliminates us. Both the Cardinals and Rams are scheduled for the same early time slot next weekend.

If the Seahawks beat MN & CHI, then they win the division. Seattle has to lose 2 of their last 3 for us to have any hopes of winning the division.

 

[TheCardinal]

If the Seahawks beat MN & CHI, then they win the division. Seattle has to lose 2 of their last 3 for us to have any hopes of winning the division.

Despite their head-to-head sweep over us, there is a way we can overtake the Seahawks in a tie-breaker if the Rams are there as well. In a three-way tie where we swept the Rams, the Rams swept the Seahawks, and the Seahawks swept us, it would go to divisional record. If this is at 10-7, we would be 4-2 in the division, the Rams would be 4-2, and the Seahawks would be 3-3. This would drop out the Seahawks. The tie-breaker then reverts back to the head-to-head step between the Cardinals and Rams, and we would win on the sweep.

If the Seahawks beat the Vikings and Bears, but then lose to the Rams, and the Rams also get to 10-7 (having to beat the Jets but then lose to us), we would win the division at 10-7. If the Rams aren't there at 10-7, Seattle wins the division over us.

 

[Russ Smith]

yeah it's too bad Detroit and Minnesota are in the same division so 1 of them has to be a Wildcard.

 

[PDXChris]

Easiest route to the playoffs is if we win out (@CAR, @LAR, vs SF), Seattle loses 2 of 3. And that’s it. Won’t matter a lick what the Rams do because losing to us would mean they lose the face to face tiebreaker against us.

Sam Howell will probably start the next game or two! So that helps.

 

[CardNots]

Thank you I love reading these. Especially this late in the year, because we're still playing meaningful games. Plenty of time for draft talk after the season is over.

Totally unexpected!

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

Geno Smith got hurt last night, twisted ankle, knee or something so that may play into Seattle winning or losing.

 

[KYCardFan]

3 way works!

 

[phillycard]

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[BullheadCardFan]

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Just win baby!

 

[phillycard]

Just win baby!

Let it all sort out at the end bro!!!

 

[Shane]

With Green Bay beating Seattle, we got a piece of the help we'll need to win the NFC West. Here is what we still can't control.

IF WE FINISH 10-7:
- Need Seattle to lose any two games (MIN/@CHI/@LAR)
OR
- Need Seattle to lose one game, IF that game is to the Rams AND the Rams beat the Jets next week
OR
- For wildcard, have Commanders lose all three plus the NFC South runner-up not reaching 10 wins

IF WE FINISH 9-8, WITH LOSS TO PANTHERS:
- Need Rams to lose to Jets
- Need Rams to beat Seahawks
- Need Seahawks to lose to at least one of Vikings/Bears

IF WE FINISH 9-8, WITH LOSS TO RAMS: Eliminated

IF WE FINISH 9-8, WITH LOSS TO 49ERS:
- Need Rams to lose to Jets
- Need Rams to beat Seahawks
- Need Seahawks to lose to BOTH Vikings/Bears

This gives me a headache

 

[WisconsinCard]

Just win baby!

Did you see the sign in Vegas tonight? It said "just tank baby".

 

[TheCardinal]

The people at nflplayoffscenarios.com (who absolutely put me to shame with the work they put into the tie-breakers) have pointed out one more elimination scenario for us this week. Though highly unlikely, it is worth posting for the sake of completeness:

Cards loss + Rams tie + Seahawks win/tie

Should we lose to Carolina and the Rams tie the Jets, we would stay alive with a Seattle loss, but we would then need to win the last two (ARI 9-8) and have the Seahawks lose to the Bears and then tie the Rams (SEA 8-8-1). The Rams would be 8-7-2 which is functionally the same as 9-8 and we would win the H2H over them.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

This gives me a headache

Right? Imagine if we had just played after the bye the same way we had played before the bye. You know - controlling our own destiny and stuff like that. But with Kyler's typical late season slump here we are doing complex math just to see if we have a chance to back into the playoffs with a lot of help from other teams. Sigh.

 

[ajcardfan]

I have a hunch the Jets are going to beat the Rams.

That means you guys should probably bet everything you have on the Rams winning and covering.

 

[MrYeahBut]

I have a hunch the Jets are going to beat the Rams.

That means you guys should probably bet everything you have on the Rams winning and covering.

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[BirdGangThing]

there's technically still a chance of me having an unbridled passionate night with all the (surviving?) members of the bangles

 

[Dback Jon]

there's technically still a chance of me having an unbridled passionate night with all the (surviving?) members of the bangles

They are all still alive, and 65-year old Susanna Hoffs likes hippies

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