2 reasons OSU basketball will win, lose NCAA Tournament opener in women's March Madness

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The No. 7-seeded Oklahoma State women's basketball team will begin its NCAA Tournament run with a game against No. 10-seeded South Dakota State at 2:30 p.m. Saturday in Storrs, Connecticut.

OSU (25-6, 14-4 Big 12) is going dancing after a drastic turnaround under third-year head coach Jacie Hoyt. The Cowgirls have already won 11 more games than they did last season.

South Dakota State (29-3, 16-0 Summit League) is in the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season under 25th-year head coach Aaron Johnston. The Jackrabbits have won 19 consecutive games.

Here are two reasons OSU will win the matchup and two reasons it could lose:

More: Oklahoma State women's basketball will face South Dakota State to open March Madness

Two reasons OSU will beat South Dakota State​


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Tenin Magassa presents a mismatch​


South Dakota State matches up pretty well with OSU. It boasts a stout defense that ranks first in the Summit League in fewest points allowed per game (61.4).

But one thing the Jackrabbits don't have is a player with as much size as Tenin Magassa. Few teams do.

The 6-foot-6 Cowgirl is often a matchup nightmare. She's averaging 8.7 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks, and she has recorded a double-double in two of her last three outings.

Magassa can be a game changer for OSU. A wrecking ball to a South Dakota State defense that has been a brick wall all season.

But Magassa must stay out of foul trouble. That has been a struggle for the senior, who has committed at least four fouls in seven of her last eight games.

The Cowgirls can run the Jackrabbits off the 3-point line​


The biggest key for OSU is to contain South Dakota State's 3-point shooters, and there are a lot of them.

Haleigh Timmer is shooting 41.7% from deep on 4.5 attempts per game. Fellow junior guard Madison Mathiowetz is shooting 37.5% on four tries. Senior guard Paige Meyer is shooting 37.1% on 3.3 attempts.

South Dakota State ranks 15th in the nation in team 3-point field goal percentage (37%), and its players will surely have the green light to let it fly Saturday. But OSU can put a halt to that.

The Cowgirls have held their opponents to just 26.9% shooting from distance this season. That ranks 15th in the nation.

If OSU can contain South Dakota State's shooters, it'll be in good shape to win.

More: Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State prediction for March Madness in 2025 NCAA Tournament

Two reasons the Cowgirls will lose​

South Dakota State has experience and chemistry​


All five of South Dakota State's starters are upperclassmen.

All five of them have spent their entire college career with the Jackrabbits. All five of them have played together in previous NCAA Tournament runs.

This is a veteran group with plenty of experience, and that can be seen when watching it play.

South Dakota State is efficient, ranking sixth in the nation in field goal percentage (48.3%). The Jackrabbits also commit an average of just 12.7 turnovers per game, which ranks 28th in the nation.

Don't expect South Dakota State to collapse on the big stage Saturday. It'll stay composed, and that'll give it a chance to pull off the upset.

The Jackrabbits can hold their own on the glass​


One of OSU's biggest strengths is its rebounding.

The Cowgirls rank second in the Big 12 in both rebounds per game (40.9) and rebounding margin per game (7.5). And while it'd be fair to assume Magassa does most of the work on the boards, it's actually Stailee Heard.

The 5-foot-11 guard is averaging a team-high 8.1 rebounds to go along with 16.7 points. That helped her earn an All-Big 12 first team selection.

But South Dakota State can hold its own on the glass. It ranks first in the Summit League in both rebounds per game (38.9) and rebounding margin per game (7.7).

Veteran forwards Brooklyn Meyer and Mesa Byom will look to set the tone in that department. If they can do that, South Dakota State will be a tough team to bounce.

More: Oklahoma State women's basketball tickets in 2025 NCAA Tournament: Prices, how to buy

Next up: OSU vs. South Dakota State​


Matchup: 7-seed OSU (25-6) vs. 10-seed South Dakota State (29-3), NCAA tournament first round, Regional 4.

Tipoff: 2:30 p.m. Saturday; Harry A. Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, Connecticut

TV: ESPN2

At stake: Winner faces UConn-Arkansas State winner on Monday for a Sweet 16 berth in Spokane, Washington

More: Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State is set in March Madness bracket. Time, date for NCAA game

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This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OSU basketball in women's March Madness: 2 ways to win, 2 ways to lose


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