2013 NBA Draft Lottery: May 21

[Griffin]

In just under a month the Suns will learn where they will select in the 2013 NBA Draft. But despite suffering their worst regular season in 44 years, their odds of landing what would be the franchise's first first overall pick aren't particularly exciting.

Here's the probability breakdown:

1st - 11.9%
2nd - 12.6%
3rd - 13.3%

4th - 9.9% (no teams moved up)
5th - 35.1% (1 team moved up)
6th - 16.0% (2 teams moved up)
7th - 1.2% (3 teams moved up)

So, draft positions in order from most likely to least likely:

5th, 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 7th

Probability of a top-3 pick: 37.8%
Probability of a lower than top-3 pick: 62.2%

The Suns are more likely to drop two spots from regular season finish than to move up one.

Just run the ESPN mock lottery 20 times and the Suns didn't win once. They did finish 5th almost half the time, which is their most likely draft position.

 

[elindholm]

Just run the ESPN mock lottery 20 times and the Suns didn't win once.

rigged

 

[Mulli]

Suns won the lottery on my sixth attempt.

 

[Neo]

Just run the ESPN mock lottery 20 times and the Suns didn't win once. They did finish 5th almost half the time, which is their most likely draft position.

That is so unlucky that it is virtually impossible. With a 37% chance of moving up, to not move up in 20 consecutive tries is 0.00009700876. Head to a safe place as soon as you can, because you are cursed.

 

[Griffin]

That is so unlucky that it is virtually impossible. With a 37% chance of moving up, to not move up in 20 consecutive tries is 0.00009700876. Head to a safe place as soon as you can, because you are cursed.

While I am not necessarily disputing your conclusion, when I said the Suns didn't win the lottery I meant they didn't win the top overall pick. What are the odds of that?

 

[Neo]

While I am not necessarily disputing your conclusion, when I said the Suns didn't win the lottery I meant they didn't win the top overall pick. What are the odds of that?

(88/100)^20= a 7.75% chance of not getting the top pick.

I missunderstood your original post, thinking that you never moved up in 20 tries.

Congratulations: you are not cursed, just really unlucky. You should be careful at intersections, but don't necessarily need to look out for falling meteors and sinkholes.