2014 NFL Draft: Prospects Too Good To Pass On

[kerouac9]

A lot of fans here and elsewhere were surprised when the Arizona Cardinals took Michael Floyd with the 13th pick in the 2012 NFL draft. Many here were hoping that the Cards would trade down and get additional picks if one of the elite prospects didn't fall to them at a position of need.

Instead, the Cards were faced with a great value player that few expected to be available at that point in the draft, and jumped at the opportunity rather reach for a prospect at a position of need (say, guard David DeCastro) or settle on a prospect who wasn't an ideal scheme fit (say, Melvin Ingram or Quentin Couples).

What that strategy earned them was a rising star and the Cardinals' most productive receiver in 2013.

There is a kind of underswell of enthusiasm for the Cards to trade down in this years draft, with the assumption that there aren't substantially better prospects available to the Cards at 20th overall than they'd be able to get with the 26th or 30th overall selections, while picking up an additional fourth or even third-round pick in the bargain. This argument isn't without merit, but I imagine that there are a handful of players whom the Cards would run to the podium to turn in their cards for, or would require really significant compensation to pass.

I'm not going to list Javedon Clowney and Sammy Watkins here, but these are the players that I think the Cards would be happy to take at 20th overall without feeling like they left value on the table:

1. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
2. Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
3. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
4. Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

If those four guys are gone, I think the Cards start looking around and waiting for the phone to ring, and they'd take a good deal to trade out.

I think it's possible that two or even three of those prospects fall to the Cards. I also think that the Cards would seriously consider a trade out even if Calvin Pryor (S, Louisville) or Anthony Barr (OLB, UCLA) are available.

 

[Cardiac]

I've been all about trading down and acquiring additional picks but if Barr is there at 20 I hope SK doesn't trade down. I also agree with your list of 4 that the Cards should take. I was against taking any of the "top 4" QB's but having read Harry's thread about Bridgewater and what many "experts" have been saying I'm on board with taking him.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I've been all about trading down and acquiring additional picks but if Barr is there at 20 I hope SK doesn't trade down. I also agree with your list of 4 that the Cards should take. I was against taking any of the "top 4" QB's but having read Harry's thread about Bridgewater and what many "experts" have been saying I'm on board with taking him.

Barr won't be there after 10, let alone 20.

 

[kerouac9]

I've been all about trading down and acquiring additional picks but if Barr is there at 20 I hope SK doesn't trade down. I also agree with your list of 4 that the Cards should take. I was against taking any of the "top 4" QB's but having read Harry's thread about Bridgewater and what many "experts" have been saying I'm on board with taking him.

I dunno about Barr. I used to be really interested in him. Todd McShay really doesn't like him as a Top 20 prospect, and Mel Kiper originally liked him and then turned around on him in the last month or so. They think that Barr lacks instincts and an aggressive defensive mentality. They thought he played without passion this season.

I think that Barr's a mixed enough prospect that the Cards would consider trading down some, particularly if Bowles' 3-4 defense is one in which the OLB is primarily attacking the line of scrimmage.

Chris Sanders was saying that the Cards are putting a lot of commentary out there about how much the love Johnny Manziel. I'm not seeing it. I think it's very possible that Manziel falls out of the top 12.

 

[Buckybird]

. I also think that the Cards would seriously consider a trade out even if Calvin Pryor (S, Louisville) or Anthony Barr (OLB, UCLA) are available.

I think you're wrong here K9. If either those 2 are there, someone with the Big Reds card does backflips to the podium!!! Both are big areas of need & both these guys are gonna be stars IMO. Wayyyyy to valuable to pass up.

If the Cards want to be contenders for years, they HAVE too add a young edge rusher & safety especially the future

 

[kerouac9]

I think you're wrong here K9. If either those 2 are there, someone with the Big Reds card does backflips to the podium!!! Both are big areas of need & both these guys are gonna be stars IMO. Wayyyyy to valuable to pass up.

If the Cards want to be contenders for years, they HAVE too add a young edge rusher & safety especially the future

I've said it before and I'll say it again here: where's the evidence that Bowles needs or desires a top safety? We didn't go after Chris Clemons in free agency when he could've been had for a song. We didn't make Kerry Rhodes and offer that tempted him more than spending more time at the beach. We started a lumbering corpse in Yeremiah Bell, whose name I had to look up because he made so little an impression. And we still had a top 5 defense!

I agree that we'll eventually have to add a young rush linebacker, but we have several prospects already in place, and I'm not convinced that Anthony Barr is going to be a top pass rusher. I don't think that Barr is a special prospect, just the third-best guy available in a thin class.

 

[Finito]

Donald doesn't really fit what we do. I think if Barr is there they jump all over him you have to remember he's only been playing defense for 2 years. I think they pass on Lewan although I wouldn't mind that pick at all. I think they pass on Pryor you can get a really good safety in round 2 the guy I actually want is Craig Loston from LSU but you can't get a good pash rusher that late.

 

[Buckybird]

I've said it before and I'll say it again here: where's the evidence that Bowles needs or desires a top safety? We didn't go after Chris Clemons in free agency when he could've been had for a song. We didn't make Kerry Rhodes and offer that tempted him more than spending more time at the beach. We started a lumbering corpse in Yeremiah Bell, whose name I had to look up because he made so little an impression. And we still had a top 5 defense!

I agree that we'll eventually have to add a young rush linebacker, but we have several prospects already in place, and I'm not convinced that Anthony Barr is going to be a top pass rusher. I don't think that Barr is a special prospect, just the third-best guy available in a thin class.

Just because we cut Rhodes & his salary and signed Bell as a replacement doesn't mean BASK doesn't want to improve that area either.

Chances are TM isn't playing for the first part of the season or more, Bell sucked & RJ & Jefferson are unproven, so-so players. TE's abused this team last year didn't they? How bout taking a top 5 D & making it #1? I still think Pryor could bring more nastiness & bravado to this defense & improve it with his skillset.

As far as Barr, he's still only in year 2 learning the OLB spot & IMO his star is ascending. He's got pretty good speed around the edge & length which BASK is seeking. Give me Barr, Ford or Van Noy anyday baby

 

[Krangodnzr]

1. Johnny Manziel - Most electrifying player in the draft after Watkins. I don't care about Arians scheme, Manziel is the type of player you adjust your scheme for. Biggest boom or bust player, but if he works out you will contend most years.

2. Teddy Bridgewater - Steady Eddy, has good not great potential at most important position. I think Bridgewater can be a sub-pro bowl player, and after watching Russell Wilson win a championship, I think Bridgewater can too. You can win with solid QB play if your defense and special teams are solid.

3. Aaron Donald - Poor scheme fit, but the type of player you make fit. I think he's actually underrated. When I watched players this year, no defensive player jumped out more.

4. Anthony Barr - Ascending player who even if he loafed or didn't seem to have instincts as some analysts say, still was dominant at times. Anthony Barr has high potential; dare I say John Abraham-like potential, but he also has some bust factor to him as well. I can see why top ten teams are becoming gun shy of drafting Barr.

5. Calvin Pryor - I'll throw him on here as well. I know you keep saying that you don't think safety is that important in Bowles scheme, but I think Pryor can be very good in any scheme. At #20, Pryor will be about the best overall player on the board, and will start from day 1. Tough, physical, tonesetter, with a nose for the football. He lays people out, but needs work on his tacking. Pryor would help make up for the loss of Dansby, and would relieve some of the strain of missing Mathieu.

And another thought on Lewan:
Taylor Lewan isn't on their radar if you read into what the Cardinals are saying. I know we disagree on him, but he's just not a can't miss prospect and the Cardinals have said they think they have enough players at RT. Since Keim has taken over, he's actually been one of the more honest GMs. He tells you what he wants to do, he just doesn't tell you how he's going to do it. The team has said on a few occasions that they like what they have at RT.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Just because we cut Rhodes & his salary and signed Bell as a replacement doesn't mean BASK doesn't want to improve that area either.

Chances are TM isn't playing for the first part of the season or more, Bell sucked & RJ & Jefferson are unproven, so-so players. TE's abused this team last year didn't they? How bout taking a top 5 D & making it #1? I still think Pryor could bring more nastiness & bravado to this defense & improve it with his skillset.

As far as Barr, he's still only in year 2 learning the OLB spot & IMO his star is ascending. He's got pretty good speed around the edge & length which BASK is seeking. Give me Barr, Ford or Van Noy anyday baby

I agree with a lot of what you're saying here, but I have to disagree that Rashad Johnson is unproven. He's now played well enough that he fits into the solid rotational, part time starter category. He is a smart enough player that doesn't dominate physically, but is mentally pretty solid. You can win with Rashad Johnson playing heavy snaps, but you'll always want a little more that he's capable of giving.

He's be a solid 3rd pick, nothing more.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I dunno about Barr. I used to be really interested in him. Todd McShay really doesn't like him as a Top 20 prospect, and Mel Kiper originally liked him and then turned around on him in the last month or so. They think that Barr lacks instincts and an aggressive defensive mentality. They thought he played without passion this season.

I think that Barr's a mixed enough prospect that the Cards would consider trading down some, particularly if Bowles' 3-4 defense is one in which the OLB is primarily attacking the line of scrimmage.
.

You're smarter than that.

Gil Brandt has him at 10, which is a drop from 3. That's about where he will go. I think he has fallen from an elite top 5 prospect to a very good top 8-15 prospect.

If, somehow, he is there at 20, I don't think even Rod Graves could pass on him.

 

[Garthshort]

If you exclude the QB's (just no sure things), there are a LOT of CAN'T MISS prospects available in this draft. And I feel that SK will select a good one, or get additional picks by trading down or out of the first round. For me, a pass rusher or a DE/DT makes the most sense. And while there is a big need for a safety, teams seem to find them later in the draft, and it is reassuring that we have a VG guy making the calls.

 

[Totally_Red]

Nice analysis K9. I'm dubious of the Cardinals pulling the trigger on Teddy Bridgewater. Any of the other three, obviously yes.

For me, it would be hard to pass on Calvin Pryor for several reasons, but primarily because he is a physical safety who can play both the strong and free positions. Knowing how much the Cardinals cherish versatility I think he'd be attractive to them even if safety isn't the most valued position in Todd Bowles' scheme.

 

[Russ Smith]

I dunno about Barr. I used to be really interested in him. Todd McShay really doesn't like him as a Top 20 prospect, and Mel Kiper originally liked him and then turned around on him in the last month or so. They think that Barr lacks instincts and an aggressive defensive mentality. They thought he played without passion this season.

I think that Barr's a mixed enough prospect that the Cards would consider trading down some, particularly if Bowles' 3-4 defense is one in which the OLB is primarily attacking the line of scrimmage.

Chris Sanders was saying that the Cards are putting a lot of commentary out there about how much the love Johnny Manziel. I'm not seeing it. I think it's very possible that Manziel falls out of the top 12.

Of course he lacks instincts he's been a defensive player for 2 years. his coach, who has lots of NFL experience, said he's never seen a kid pick up the concepts as quickly as Barr did. They do a drill at UCLA for running around the outside for pass rushing and he said the first day Barr had no idea how to do it. By the end of the week he was as good at that drill as ANY player he'd ever coached, even in the NFL.

He's got a knack for getting to the QB, he has to learn more moves and techniques but generally speaking when he is lined up 1 on 1, he wins. That's why this year his numbers were down, nobody lined up 1 on 1 with him they doubled him or tripled him or rolled the pocket.

As for the lack of passion I don't know how you counter that, Anthony Barr was the toughest kid UCLA had last year. He's not going jump up screaming and pounding his chest after a play, but he certainly wasn't taking lots of plays off.

It really depends what the Cards are looking for. He's a terrific pass rusher, he developed really quickly in coverage. his run defense was lacking at times, he's a big hitter but he doesn't wrap up and occasionally took poor angles, lack of experience.

I think he'll be a terrific NFL player but he's likely going to have to make adjustments.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

1. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
2. Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
3. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
4. Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

If those four guys are gone, I think the Cards start looking around and waiting for the phone to ring, and they'd take a good deal to trade out.

I think it's possible that two or even three of those prospects fall to the Cards. I also think that the Cards would seriously consider a trade out even if Calvin Pryor (S, Louisville) or Anthony Barr (OLB, UCLA) are available.

Agreed on both points, the players the Cardinals can't pass up and the player the Cardinals can.

Good post.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Donald doesn't really fit what we do.

I realize why it is being said, but from what I have seen out of Donald he can play three to four positions for the Cardinals, and thrive.

He is a highly athletic defensive lineman, that is shaped very much like Matt Shaughnessey who THRIVES in the Cardinals system.

Donald could play OLBer, DE, DE (nickel package), and DT (nickel package).

If Matt Shaughtnessey can play the edge why can't Donald ?

If Darnell Dockett can play DE (3-4), and DT (nickel) then why can't Donald ?

Not saying that people don't have their points against draft Donald, but as for system fit, I don't see the problem, IMHO.

 

[Mitch]

I realize why it is being said, but from what I have seen out of Donald he can play three to four positions for the Cardinals, and thrive.

He is a highly athletic defensive lineman, that is shaped very much like Matt Shaughnessey who THRIVES in the Cardinals system.

Donald could play OLBer, DE, DE (nickel package), and DT (nickel package).

If Matt Shaughtnessey can play the edge why can't Donald ?

If Darnell Dockett can play DE (3-4), and DT (nickel) then why can't Donald ?

Not saying that people don't have their points against draft Donald, but as for system fit, I don't see the problem, IMHO.

Donald would thrive in Dockett's role. No question about it. He would be an excellent fit, unless you are a stickler for height (um, sorry, "length"). Geno Atkins---anyone got a problem with his lack of height?

 

[kerouac9]

5. Calvin Pryor - I'll throw him on here as well. I know you keep saying that you don't think safety is that important in Bowles scheme, but I think Pryor can be very good in any scheme. At #20, Pryor will be about the best overall player on the board, and will start from day 1. Tough, physical, tonesetter, with a nose for the football. He lays people out, but needs work on his tacking. Pryor would help make up for the loss of Dansby, and would relieve some of the strain of missing Mathieu.

And another thought on Lewan:
Taylor Lewan isn't on their radar if you read into what the Cardinals are saying. I know we disagree on him, but he's just not a can't miss prospect and the Cardinals have said they think they have enough players at RT. Since Keim has taken over, he's actually been one of the more honest GMs. He tells you what he wants to do, he just doesn't tell you how he's going to do it. The team has said on a few occasions that they like what they have at RT.

My feeling is that Pryor is only the BPA if the other guys on my list are gone, and he's not a great enough positional value to not consider trading out of the spot. The difference between the super-elite safeties in the NFL and the above-average ones is pretty stark; but the difference between the above-average safeties and the average ones is pretty slim. I don't hear a lot of comparisons out there to Earl Thomas on Pryor. If he's not Earl Thomas, you're better of picking up a third-round pick in a trade out.

I agree with you that the Cards are communicating pretty loudly that they're comfortable with their OL. I don't think that Lewan is going to be available at 20, but--like with your comments on Manziel--I think that Lewan is too good a prospect to pass up.

The Cards' best hope for a trade down is that there's a run on OTs and QBs at the top of the draft, and someone wants to get Derek Carr or Morgan Moses before there's a clear step down in prospect quality.

 

[kerouac9]

Donald would thrive in Dockett's role. No question about it. He would be an excellent fit, unless you are a stickler for height (um, sorry, "length"). Geno Atkins---anyone got a problem with his lack of height?

Geno Atkins plays a different position than Darnell Dockett. It's like saying "Tyrann Mathieu--anyone got a problem with his like of height?"

 

[Arizona's Finest]

My feeling is that Pryor is only the BPA if the other guys on my list are gone, and he's not a great enough positional value to not consider trading out of the spot. The difference between the super-elite safeties in the NFL and the above-average ones is pretty stark; but the difference between the above-average safeties and the average ones is pretty slim. I don't hear a lot of comparisons out there to Earl Thomas on Pryor. If he's not Earl Thomas, you're better of picking up a third-round pick in a trade out.

I agree with you that the Cards are communicating pretty loudly that they're comfortable with their OL. I don't think that Lewan is going to be available at 20, but--like with your comments on Manziel--I think that Lewan is too good a prospect to pass up.

The Cards' best hope for a trade down is that there's a run on OTs and QBs at the top of the draft, and someone wants to get Derek Carr or Morgan Moses before there's a clear step down in prospect quality.

Better comparison is Thomas's running mate, Kam Chancellor.

 

[kerouac9]

Better comparison is Thomas's running mate, Kam Chancellor.

And Kam Chancellor was a 5th round pick and a guy like many, many others around the NFL. Because we're not running a Seahawks-style Cover-3 press scheme, I don't see the need to invest a 1st round pick in a position that's so easily replaceable.

And I like Pryor as a prospect. I think that in a Tampa-2 scheme, he could play the John Lynch role really well. But I don't think this is a defense that places a lot of value on an enforcer over the middle.

It's about resource allocation to me, not about the comparative value of particular prospects.

 

[Totally_Red]

From what I'm seeing if Calvin Pryor makes it to #22 he'll be an Eagle. Chip Kelly attended Louisville's pro day and was fixated on Pryor. Pryor's uncle played at Clemson with Brian Dawkins and the Eagles have looking for Dawkins' replacement since they cut him in 2009.

 

[kerouac9]

From what I'm seeing if Calvin Pryor makes it to #22 he'll be an Eagle. Chip Kelly attended Louisville's pro day and was fixated on Pryor. Pryor's uncle played at Clemson with Brian Dawkins and the Eagles have looking for Dawkins' replacement since they cut him in 2009.

There are a couple of teams later in the draft (Behind us) that might be willing to give up draft picks for a chance at Pryor. The Packers, Eagles, and Saints call all use safety help. If Clinton-Dix is already off the board, someone may be willing to give up something for the opportunity to draft Pryor.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I don't want Pryor at all as a consideration at #20. I just don't see the value. He's a good prospect but I just don't see him as that much better a player than a guy like Loston who can be had in round 3-4.

 

[Chopper0080]

Better comparison is Thomas's running mate, Kam Chancellor.

Pryor isn't the physical specimen that Chancellor is. My comp would be Jarius Byrd. Short and thick, is physicla vs run, but can also play single high coverage.