2015 NBA Free Agents

[overseascardfan]

IMO, PHX needs to focus on trying to acquire a rebounding PF and I am not talking about a per 36 minutes rebounder. Markieff is a solid scorer at the position but you need more than 6 rpg from the PF spot, I don't care if his per 36 numbers are better, he consistently has low rebounding games. Plus the fact that he rationalizes his poor rebounding due to his lack of "size" at 6'10 245 is pathetic considering Bledsoe is 9 inches shorter and is averaging the same number of rebounds a game.

If PHX can't find on at the trade deadline, fine, but there are a couple of guys in the draft that could help. Keep an eye on UNLV's Christian Wood, who is a talented big who really had a great showing against UA. I am also intrigued by Turkish big man Egemen Guven whom many are comparing to a young Pau Gasol. Both are listed at 6'11 220 so they need to add some weight but they are both extremely talented and would be nice pieces to add to the frontcourt for the future.

 

[Mainstreet]

IMO, PHX needs to focus on trying to acquire a rebounding PF and I am not talking about a per 36 minutes rebounder. Markieff is a solid scorer at the position but you need more than 6 rpg from the PF spot, I don't care if his per 36 numbers are better, he consistently has low rebounding games. Plus the fact that he rationalizes his poor rebounding due to his lack of "size" at 6'10 245 is pathetic considering Bledsoe is 9 inches shorter and is averaging the same number of rebounds a game.

If PHX can't find on at the trade deadline, fine, but there are a couple of guys in the draft that could help. Keep an eye on UNLV's Christian Wood, who is a talented big who really had a great showing against UA. I am also intrigued by Turkish big man Egemen Guven whom many are comparing to a young Pau Gasol. Both are listed at 6'11 220 so they need to add some weight but they are both extremely talented and would be nice pieces to add to the frontcourt for the future.

Maybe that is why the Suns are shopping Plumlee for another first round pick if they cannot find a trade for another capable PF.

 

[slinslin]

Markieff is one of the best Power Forwards in the league and nowaways you won't find a power forward consistently averaging 12 rebounds per game anymore.

Look at Blake Griffin (7.6), Ibaka (7.3) LaMarcus Aldridge, Dirk Nowitzki and even Love in Cleveland are very inconsistent rebounders even though Aldridge has a good year maybe since he is playing more center with Robin Lopez out injured.

Markieff's rebounding numbers are normal for a PF.

I don't buy the "shopping Plumlee" thing anyway. More likely his agent is shopping him because last year he has shown that he could be a decent starter. Suns have no reason to shop him as he is still a needed part of the rotation and on a rookie contract. You would have to get a great deal to trade Plumlee, not just a mid-late first round pick.

 

[AzStevenCal]

IMO, PHX needs to focus on trying to acquire a rebounding PF and I am not talking about a per 36 minutes rebounder. Markieff is a solid scorer at the position but you need more than 6 rpg from the PF spot, I don't care if his per 36 numbers are better, he consistently has low rebounding games. Plus the fact that he rationalizes his poor rebounding due to his lack of "size" at 6'10 245 is pathetic considering Bledsoe is 9 inches shorter and is averaging the same number of rebounds a game.

If PHX can't find on at the trade deadline, fine, but there are a couple of guys in the draft that could help. Keep an eye on UNLV's Christian Wood, who is a talented big who really had a great showing against UA. I am also intrigued by Turkish big man Egemen Guven whom many are comparing to a young Pau Gasol. Both are listed at 6'11 220 so they need to add some weight but they are both extremely talented and would be nice pieces to add to the frontcourt for the future.

So you want to make a mid-season trade to improve the power forward spot? I'm all for that, who did you have in mind and how do we acquire him? Just as long as he is actually better, simply pulling down 2 more boards a game isn't going to help us much if the guy doesn't measure up elsewhere (and many of the rebounding forwards are not Keef's equal in offense or defense).

As far as Keef mentioning his size, you don't think he looks undersized when he's out there playing center? The reason I use 36 minute stats is because Jeff only plays our starting power forward about 30 minutes. It's not reasonable to expect his numbers to match up against forwards that are playing 35 to 40 minutes per game.

Bringing Wright in should allow Keef to play most if not all of his minutes at the power forward spot. Hopefully now that he won't have to bang around with the centers his body will hold up well enough that Jeff will actually be willing to play him 36 minutes per game. Our numbers are so much better when he is on the court (especially with Len).

Anyway, I'd rather wait till the draft and package the twins and whatever else it will take to get Okafor. I know you're not overly high on the guy but I think he'll have a long career as a borderline all star power forward and he plays the game the right way. He'd be perfect next to Len.

Steve

 

[overseascardfan]

Markieff is one of the best Power Forwards in the league and nowaways you won't find a power forward consistently averaging 12 rebounds per game anymore.

Look at Blake Griffin (7.6), Ibaka (7.3) LaMarcus Aldridge, Dirk Nowitzki and even Love in Cleveland are very inconsistent rebounders even though Aldridge has a good year maybe since he is playing more center with Robin Lopez out injured.

Markieff's rebounding numbers are normal for a PF.

I don't buy the "shopping Plumlee" thing anyway. More likely his agent is shopping him because last year he has shown that he could be a decent starter. Suns have no reason to shop him as he is still a needed part of the rotation and on a rookie contract. You would have to get a great deal to trade Plumlee, not just a mid-late first round pick.

Not to harp on you but the guys you reference only prove my point. Griffin is averaging 7.6 this year but for his career he averages just under 10 rpg. Ibaka for his career averages 7.4 which is close to the 7.3 this season but Morris has a career average of 5.2 rpg, that is not normal.

Also, don't get your argument that Aldridge, Love & Nowitski are inconsistent rebounders as Aldridge & Love are averaging over 10 rpg. Dirk's rebounding has declined the last few years but that is because he is getting old (36 years old) but for his career averages 8 a game which is a number I would say would be normal for a starting PF that plays the minutes that Morris does.

As I mentioned in my post if PHX can't find a deal for one, fine stick with what you have until the draft and see if a deal can be made for a post player who can rebound or just draft one of the 2 guys I mentioned. Point is if there is an upgrade available to Morris I would not hesitate to deal one or both the twins to get that player.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Not to harp on you but the guys you reference only prove my point. Griffin is averaging 7.6 this year but for his career he averages just under 10 rpg. Ibaka for his career averages 7.4 which is close to the 7.3 this season but Morris has a career average of 5.2 rpg, that is not normal.

Also, don't get your argument that Aldridge, Love & Nowitski are inconsistent rebounders as Aldridge & Love are averaging over 10 rpg. Dirk's rebounding has declined the last few years but that is because he is getting old (36 years old) but for his career averages 8 a game which is a number I would say would be normal for a starting PF that plays the minutes that Morris does.

As I mentioned in my post if PHX can't find a deal for one, fine stick with what you have until the draft and see if a deal can be made for a post player who can rebound or just draft one of the 2 guys I mentioned. Point is if there is an upgrade available to Morris I would not hesitate to deal one or both the twins to get that player.

That's the key. The difference though is I don't think there's all that many upgrades out there and I can't think of any that would be available for us midseason. I'd certainly be willing to put a package together for someone like Favors but I doubt Utah would bite on anything we'd be willing to give up. I'd offer the twins, IT, Plumlee and the Lakers pick just to gauge their interest but I suspect they'd hang up on us.

Steve

 

[elindholm]

Markieff's rebounding numbers are normal for a PF.

That's just flat out ridiculous by any measure. Come on, slinslin, you're better than that.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/rebounds/sort/avg48Rebounds/position/power-forwards

MkMorris ranks 45th out of 56 "qualified" power forwards in rebounds per minute. Among those playing at least 30 minutes per game, the only one lower than Morris is -- you guessed it -- Channing Frye.

 

[BC867]

MkMorris ranks 45th out of 56 "qualified" power forwards in rebounds per minute. Among those playing at least 30 minutes per game, the only one lower than Morris is -- you guessed it -- Channing Frye.

So Jeff is probably feeling proud that we improved this season.

At this rate, we'll have the top rebounding PF in about 45 years.

 

[Errntknght]

That's just flat out ridiculous by any measure. Come on, slinslin, you're better than that.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/rebounds/sort/avg48Rebounds/position/power-forwards

MkMorris ranks 45th out of 56 "qualified" power forwards in rebounds per minute. Among those playing at least 30 minutes per game, the only one lower than Morris is -- you guessed it -- Channing Frye.

Of course slin tilted the table but our rebounding problem isn't so much Markieff at PF, its Marcus at PF and/or Markieff at C. As long as we keep Plumlee and all of Len, Wright and Miles are healthy those two situations are avoidable. That doesn't mean Jeff will avoid them but since Wright arrived they are in declline.

The frontcourt isn't good enough for us to seriously contend for the title but it could well develop enough to be that good. But we should definitely be on the lookout for another frontcourt player who brings something in the way of defense and/or rebounding for insurance against injury and departure.

 

[95pro]

watch the games and see how many times bledsoe calls off a teammate when he wants the rebound. Even when they're in the same position/vicinity. There's around 1-3 per game.

I don't think Kieff is all that bad. It's just his dumb T's.

 

[elindholm]

The Suns are at .724 in defensive rebound percentage, fifth-worst in the league. That speaks to poor boxing out by the big men. Maybe it has gotten better recently with Len's increased playing time and the addition of Wright, but to say that it hasn't been a problem so far this season is just silly.

The Suns' offensive rebounding percentage is .247, which looks about average (I didn't find a site where I could sort easily).

 

[Hoop Head]

watch the games and see how many times bledsoe calls off a teammate when he wants the rebound. Even when they're in the same position/vicinity. There's around 1-3 per game.

I don't think Kieff is all that bad. It's just his dumb T's.

Jason Kidd used to do the same thing and averaged more boards than Bledsoe but still had frontcourt players averaging more than 5 or 6 a game.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The Suns are at .724 in defensive rebound percentage, fifth-worst in the league. That speaks to poor boxing out by the big men. Maybe it has gotten better recently with Len's increased playing time and the addition of Wright, but to say that it hasn't been a problem so far this season is just silly.

The Suns' offensive rebounding percentage is .247, which looks about average (I didn't find a site where I could sort easily).

I have no idea if it's gotten better but even if it has I think it's still a problem. Markieff blocks out well when he's playing down low but if he's 12 feet from the basket when the ball goes up he just stares at it in flight. I swear he must give up two offensive rebound/putbacks per game. I really don't worry about his rebound numbers per se (ugh-hate using that term) but the specifics bother me.

The occasional lack of focus whether it's a lazy pass or a failed block out often leads to easy opponent points and can be huge momentum swings. And the twins lose focus far too often. That fact more than the T's or the rebound numbers or the heavy iso play by Marcus is why I'd consider moving them this offseason. If it wasn't for the fact that Keef appears to be our best clutch player I'd look at moving them by the deadline. I think he's above average but either he or our small forward need to be closer to star level and Tucker isn't bringing us much back in trade IMO.

Steve

 

[sunsfan88]

Markieff is a really bad rebounder because he doesn't box out.

Only time he actually gets boards is when they fall into his lap. Even against the Cavs, both Love and Tristian Thompson were crashing the glass hard against Kieff.

I wish Kieff could learn rebounding from Thompson, he's got a great knack for it. One of the best offensive rebounders in the game.

 

[Errntknght]

The Suns are at .724 in defensive rebound percentage, fifth-worst in the league. That speaks to poor boxing out by the big men. Maybe it has gotten better recently with Len's increased playing time and the addition of Wright, but to say that it hasn't been a problem so far this season is just silly.

The Suns' offensive rebounding percentage is .247, which looks about average (I didn't find a site where I could sort easily).

Suns are ranked 25th in relative OR, they are losing the battle 450(us) to 506(opps) for a relative number of -56.

 

[elindholm]

Suns are ranked 25th in relative OR, they are losing the battle 450(us) to 506(opps) for a relative number of -56.

But that measure is confounded by their poor defensive rebounding, which equates to more offensive rebounds for their opponents. I'm more interested in how their offensive rebounding stacks up against the league, not against the very opponents they're failing to box out on the other end.

 

[Errntknght]

You are quite right and it makes quite a difference as we are 14th in raw OR. We are also 11th in raw Total Rebs. That isn't what you want either. That means I'll have convert it to percentages to get meaningful stats. A pace adjustment would probably be close but I don't like pace adjustments if they can be avoided.

Okay ranked by percentage of OR we are 21st and by percentage of total rebounds 24th. Thats 7th worst for TR percent, but its a different day and it can shift quickly.
Oh crap I used the opps TR instead of DR for OR %. Probably won't matter much.

With a correct computation we ranked 18th in OR%. I should say more likely correct at this point.

 

[elindholm]

You are quite right and it makes quite a difference as we are 14th in raw OR. We are also 11th in raw Total Rebs. That isn't what you want either. That means I'll have convert it to percentages to get meaningful stats.

You don't like the stats on ESPN.com? http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/rebounds-per-game

 

[Errntknght]

I've never seen that site. For the most part I capture raw stats from Doug's site and the SportVu site for defense then I display stats with software I write. Writing it is a pleasant diversion and I can see them displayed just the way I like, plus I can compute novel stats and apply any filters I can think of, sort on any stat. I just started importing the SportVu defense data and once that was done all the things I could do applied to that - the NBA version was such a pain to use with not being able to select by team or position or get averages. Now one command shows the averages for all teams in a second - along with the team averages for the other stats.

I'll have to spend some time on that site, look for new ideas I can add to my software...

 

[slinslin]

Jimmy Butler is the pipe-dream for us to sign this summer.

Bledsoe and Butler could be a great two-way backcourt pairing. Not very good in terms of shooting but respectable and the Suns would have the makeup of a tremendous defensive team.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Jimmy Butler is the pipe-dream for us to sign this summer.

Bledsoe and Butler could be a great two-way backcourt pairing. Not very good in terms of shooting but respectable and the Suns would have the makeup of a tremendous defensive team.

It's not going to happen so you're right, it's a pipe dream. Probably, the closest we can come to signing Butler would be to draft Stanley Johnson and wait for him to become the next Jimmy Butler. They aren't clones but they aren't all that dissimilar either. Personally, I'd rather keep Goran and improve at the 3 or 4 spot instead.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

Besides all that Wright is going to be a FA this year I thought. There is no way I would give him 7M$ per season for what he actually contributes when we could just keep Plumlee around for another year on his rookie contract.

Stanley Johnson is indeed similiar to Butler but I see Stanimal as a small forward in the NBA most likely. I think Stanley Johnson could be a franchise player for the Suns, he'd get me excited about this team again.
Too bad he is probably going as high as #2 and now lower than #7.

 

[Errntknght]

slin, last year leading up to the draft you said some advanced metric was picking quite a different group of guys than the draft pundits were talking about. The teams went pretty much with the players the 'experts' picked. I meant to bookmark that post but I forgot to and I don't want to spend hours searching - do you remember who the guys were or where the post is located? The heralded players haven't shown much to date so it might well be that the guys you mentioned have in fact done better.

 

[AzStevenCal]

slin, last year leading up to the draft you said some advanced metric was picking quite a different group of guys than the draft pundits were talking about. The teams went pretty much with the players the 'experts' picked. I meant to bookmark that post but I forgot to and I don't want to spend hours searching - do you remember who the guys were or where the post is located? The heralded players haven't shown much to date so it might well be that the guys you mentioned have in fact done better.

Wiggins is living up to his hype.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

slin, last year leading up to the draft you said some advanced metric was picking quite a different group of guys than the draft pundits were talking about. The teams went pretty much with the players the 'experts' picked. I meant to bookmark that post but I forgot to and I don't want to spend hours searching - do you remember who the guys were or where the post is located? The heralded players haven't shown much to date so it might well be that the guys you mentioned have in fact done better.

Dante Exum
Jusuf Nurkic
Clint Capela
Kyle Anderson
Jordan Adams
Jarnell Stokes
Dario Saric
Joel Embiid

Zach Lavine was predicted to have high star probability as well as relatively high bust probability. I think Wiggins was a similiar case, he rated well but the best predictions were 5 foreign players followed by Embiid and Adams.
Jordan Adams was basically predicted by the tool as extremely safe pick.

were among the top players statistically predicted but that prediction is based on careers and not trying to predict the immediate rookie impact.

Anyway it looks like those prediction are correct for Nurkic, Wiggins and LaVine and Capela seems to improve quickly with some monster games in the D-League.

ESPN WARP Prediction

1. Marcus Smart 3.6
2. Clint Capela 3.4
3. Jusuf Nurkic 3.3
4. Dante Exum 3.3
5. Jordan Adams 3.0
6. Joel Embiid 2.9
7. Jabari Parker 2.5
8. Noah Vonleh 2.4
9. PJ Hairston 2.0
10. Tyler Ennis 2.0
11. Gary Harris 1.9
12. Jarnell Stokes 1.9
13. Doug McDermott 1.8
14. Aaron Gordon 1.7
15. Julius Randle 1.6
16. Kyle Anderson 1.5
17. KJ McDaniels 1.5
18. Dario Saric 1.4
19. Andrew Wiggins 1.3
20. Nik Stauskas 1.2
21. Shabazz Napier 1.1
22. Zach Lavine 0.9
23. James Young 0.8
24. Elfrid Payton 0.8
25. TJ Warren 0.6
26. Cleathony Early 0.0
27. Adreian Payne -0.1
28. Rodney Hood -0.2
29. Jerami Grant -0.4
30. Jordan Clarkson -0.5

http://www.hickory-high.com/projecti...014-nba-draft/

1. Jordan Adams
2. Marcus Smart
3. Kyle Anderson
4. Joel Embiid
5. Aaron Gordon

Quote:
Jordan Adams is the wacky name that sticks out at the top, as he goes in the 30s in most mock drafts. There’s nothing super notable about Adams–the guy just puts up really good numbers across the board. He’s undersized and generally thought of as unathletic, but Adams shines in two “applied athleticism” stats–offensive rebound rate and steal rate.

Joel Embiid would have the top projection in this class, if not for his committing of 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes

Nobody with combined block and steal rates as low as McDermott’s has been a valuable NBA player.

Noah Vonleh would be much higher if not for an insanely low assist rate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...rive_web#gid=5

1. Joel Embiid
2. Kyle Anderson
3. Jordan Adams
4. Marcus Smart
5. Aaron Gordon

Here is another spreadsheet with historical data so you can check the accuracy of the prediction
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...abE9qaWc#gid=1

http://hoopsanalyst.com/?p=1205

1. Joel Embiid
2. Marcus Smart
3. Jordan Adams
4. Kyle Anderson
5. Andrew Wiggings

Unfortunately the links are not working anymore