2016 Dback Win Prediction Thread

[RON_IN_OC]

82% win percentage, thus far in Spring Training...


That would extrapolate to 133 Regular Season Wins! I'm on board!

 

[Dback Jon]

82% win percentage, thus far in Spring Training...


That would extrapolate to 133 Regular Season Wins! I'm on board!

So is that your prediction?

 

[Big Deal]

94

 

[sundevil04]

94

 

[82CardsGrad]

Looks likely that Pollack will start the season on the DL due to his elbow issue...
And worse, our #'s 4 & 5 in the rotation are far from settled...

 

[devilalum]

Looks likely that Pollack will start the season on the DL due to his elbow issue...
And worse, our #'s 4 & 5 in the rotation are far from settled...

But we've got about 5 solid prospects for the 4&5 slots. Basically we've got the entire starting rotation from last year to choose from. All those young pitchers getting experience last year is going to help with our depth.

 

[82CardsGrad]

But we've got about 5 solid prospects for the 4&5 slots. Basically we've got the entire starting rotation from last year to choose from. All those young pitchers getting experience last year is going to help with our depth.

Anyone that has been suggested as the potential 4 & 5 has pretty much crapped the bed this spring. Ray has looked the best of them all but he's been shaky at best his past 2 outings...

 

[devilalum]

Anyone that has been suggested as the potential 4 & 5 has pretty much crapped the bed this spring. Ray has looked the best of them all but he's been shaky at best his past 2 outings...

True, but somebody from that group will step up. There's some talent there. They proved that last fall.

 

[82CardsGrad]

True, but somebody from that group will step up. There's some talent there. They proved that last fall.

In order to truly contend, that is an absolute necessity!

 

[DWKB]

So, I know this is fan picks, but I thought I would add the "expert" picks as well here.

Fangraphs has us at 79-83
Sports Illustrated has us at 81-81
ESPN has us at 84-78
Baseball Prospectus has us at 78-84

 

[Iceman]

So, I know this is fan picks, but I thought I would add the "expert" picks as well here.

Fangraphs has us at 79-83
Sports Illustrated has us at 81-81
ESPN has us at 84-78
Baseball Prospectus has us at 78-84

Crazy to see them so low. It is almost as though they are basing the numbers on last years team

 

[Dback Jon]

So, I know this is fan picks, but I thought I would add the "expert" picks as well here.

Fangraphs has us at 79-83
Sports Illustrated has us at 81-81
ESPN has us at 84-78
Baseball Prospectus has us at 78-84

That is puzzling that most show little or no improvement.

 

[82CardsGrad]

So, I know this is fan picks, but I thought I would add the "expert" picks as well here.

Fangraphs has us at 79-83
Sports Illustrated has us at 81-81
ESPN has us at 84-78
Baseball Prospectus has us at 78-84

The NL is incredibly strong this season... and of course, we have the joy of playing in the West where we battle 2 of the premier teams in the NL - LA and SF.
Coupled with the unproven nature of the back-end of our rotation, as well as our middle relief, I can see why the "experts" would be inclined to lock us in at relatively low win totals. I'll also add this - while I LOVE Goldy and hope he never leaves Arizona, he tailed off in the second half of last season - dramatically... Seems odd to say this about him, but I'll say it anyway... He's now got to prove that he can play at an allstar level all season long.

 

[DWKB]

The reasons are two fold.

1) We have to play other real teams and even if we have improved with some talent, they predict those teams to have improved more than or as much as us.

2) We had a lot of career years and some regression is being speculated.

 

[devilalum]

IMO they need to get off to a hot start. If that happens this thing will snowball. Hopefully spring training is the beginning.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

88 wins for me

 

[Kel Varnsen]

80

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[TJ]

89

 

[Dback Jon]

89

That is quite a jump from your prediction last year!

 

[DWKB]

80

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How dare you underbid me!

 

[82CardsGrad]

2) We had a lot of career years and some regression is being speculated.

True... though, as I pointed out, Goldy essentially fell apart in the second half of last season.
And it might be proper to expect better seasons from Owings, Drury, Ahmed, Segura, Lamb and perhaps Tomas.
Pollack could be on the DL come opening day, which doesn't bode well for a repeat of his allstar season last year.

But, that said, I believe our key will be pitching. I think we know what to expect from Grienke. But what will Miller give us? Can Corbin truly, fully bounce back from Tommy John? And then there's the issues with our 4 or 5 starters... not to mention our middle relief and hoping that Zeigler can give us another great season in the closer position.

 

[HeavyB3]

96

 

[gmabel830]

75.. because we always suck when we are supposed to be good

 

[Big Deal]

So, I know this is fan picks, but I thought I would add the "expert" picks as well here.

Fangraphs has us at 79-83
Sports Illustrated has us at 81-81
ESPN has us at 84-78
Baseball Prospectus has us at 78-84

I was at a dinner with Fergie Jenkins and Aaron Boone the other night and they both said DBacks win the west outright. They love Goldy and Greinkie.

 

[TJ]

That is quite a jump from your prediction last year!

Greinke's signing improves this team's win total by 88, even though he only plays every 5th game.

#Analysis