2018-19 Season | Point Guard Discussion

[ColdPickleNachos]

I never did understand the thinking of signing Melton to only a 2 year contract while Okobo was signed to a 4 year contract.

It could have been something as simple as Melton and his agent preferring a shorter contract so he could cash in earlier while Okobo being happy with some security. Melton's contract took awhile, so maybe he was insistent on betting on himself?

 

[Mainstreet]

It could have been something as simple as Melton and his agent preferring a shorter contract so he could cash in earlier while Okobo being happy with some security. Melton's contract took awhile, so maybe he was insistent on betting on himself?

It could well be. Maybe Melton shouldn't explode until we sign him to another contract.

 

[devilalum]

I never did understand the thinking of signing Melton to only a 2 year contract while Okobo was signed to a 4 year contract.

This time next year Okobo may be the front runner. I hope the whole lot explodes in to the next GS Warriors. That would be the best case scenario. No free agents. This group just explodes and Sarver pays them all what they deserve.

 

[Errntknght]

Interesting article JCS, but the last time I did correlation analysis of box score stats, steals in many years had negative correlation with winning. Other years they had a small positive correlation. Overall they had a slight negative correlation.

Obviously steals are positive but the typical line of reasoning why they might turn out negative is that attempted steals have a negative value so a guy that gets three failed attempted steals for every steal could hurt his team. This aspect is, of course widely known in basketball circles. If we ever gather stats on failed attempted steals we could find the trade off point - say 1.6 failed steal attempts cancel out 1 successful steal. Going for steals is known as 'gambling on defense' and I think it's well named.

To a lesser extent the same effect shows up in shot blocking. A missed block attempt puts the player in poor defensive position so has a negative value. However, blocked shots never showed up with a negative correlation with winning. That is a league wide average so certainly some players went negative while others made up for it.

I could not follow his reasoning and there may be some nugget of information there, but I'm a mathematician and I understand what correlation analysis is saying and it says that basketball players attempt too many steals.

 

[SirStefan32]

I never did understand the thinking of signing Melton to only a 2 year contract while Okobo was signed to a 4 year contract.

I think most teams sign second-round picks to short contacts. I want to say that the Suns are an exception in that they give their second round picks first-round type contracts.

 

[Mainstreet]

I think most teams sign second-round picks to short contacts. I want to say that the Suns are an exception in that they give their second round picks first-round type contracts.

It could be. I really haven't kept track of that. There is really no downside for the team if they put in team options the last two seasons. The Suns did this with Okobo on his four year contract.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Interesting article JCS, but the last time I did correlation analysis of box score stats, steals in many years had negative correlation with winning. Other years they had a small positive correlation. Overall they had a slight negative correlation.

Obviously steals are positive but the typical line of reasoning why they might turn out negative is that attempted steals have a negative value so a guy that gets three failed attempted steals for every steal could hurt his team. This aspect is, of course widely known in basketball circles. If we ever gather stats on failed attempted steals we could find the trade off point - say 1.6 failed steal attempts cancel out 1 successful steal. Going for steals is known as 'gambling on defense' and I think it's well named.

To a lesser extent the same effect shows up in shot blocking. A missed block attempt puts the player in poor defensive position so has a negative value. However, blocked shots never showed up with a negative correlation with winning. That is a league wide average so certainly some players went negative while others made up for it.

I could not follow his reasoning and there may be some nugget of information there, but I'm a mathematician and I understand what correlation analysis is saying and it says that basketball players attempt too many steals.

You and the guys at fivethirtyeight are all mathmeticians. I am not. They are usually pretty solid with their numbers or I would not have posted it. I do think it is worthy of more investigation.

If a steal is worth so much, I would assume a turnover would have the opposite impact in the same proportion.

 

[AzStevenCal]

You and the guys at fivethirtyeight are all mathmeticians. I am not. They are usually pretty solid with their numbers or I would not have posted it. I do think it is worthy of more investigation.

If a steal is worth so much, I would assume a turnover would have the opposite impact in the same proportion.

I'm no mathematician but I doubt they are equivalent whether you accept 538's rationale or not. Especially since NBA teams probably average about twice as many turnovers as they do steals. Plus, live ball turnovers are so much more costly than just your run of the mill dead ball turnover so that would have to be considered too.

 

[Hoop Head]

I never did understand the thinking of signing Melton to only a 2 year contract while Okobo was signed to a 4 year contract.

We were actually limited at the time because we were capped out. I remember something coming up when we waived Chandler about how that happened before the season then we could have signed Melton to a deal like Okobo. However with Chandler's salary on the books in full we weren't able to make any more than a minimum contract offer, which is limited to 2 years. I'll try to find more about that.



Edit: That was much easier than I anticipated. Here's a story on it...

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/...s-stay-phoenix-suns-deanthony-melton-contract

 

[Mainstreet]

We were actually limited at the time because we were capped out. I remember something coming up when we waived Chandler about how that happened before the season then we could have signed Melton to a deal like Okobo. However with Chandler's salary on the books in full we weren't able to make any more than a minimum contract offer, which is limited to 2 years. I'll try to find more about that.



Edit: That was much easier than I anticipated. Here's a story on it...

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/...s-stay-phoenix-suns-deanthony-melton-contract

The Suns should have bought out Chandler in the off season. It's very upsetting to hear.

I thought it might have involved CAP money but I never did put the pieces together.

 

[JCSunsfan]

We were actually limited at the time because we were capped out. I remember something coming up when we waived Chandler about how that happened before the season then we could have signed Melton to a deal like Okobo. However with Chandler's salary on the books in full we weren't able to make any more than a minimum contract offer, which is limited to 2 years. I'll try to find more about that.



Edit: That was much easier than I anticipated. Here's a story on it...

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/...s-stay-phoenix-suns-deanthony-melton-contract

Can't we extend him now? I thought you could do that with second rounders.

 

[Hoop Head]

Can't we extend him now? I thought you could do that with second rounders.

I'm not sure how extending 2nd round picks work. I know that we'll get some sort of restricted rights. I'll try and send a tweet to one of the Suns podcasts to see if they can get a more definitive answer. This is one of the reasons I miss Scott Bordow covering the Suns, last year you could message him questions like this and he'd reply with an answer within a day or two. If he didn't know it already he would find out.

 

[sunsfan88]

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Would be awesome if he panics and we can take advantage of it by ripping them off for Lonzo somehow.

 

[devilalum]

What are the Suns offering for DSJ?

Sounds like he’s movin sooner than later.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Phrazbit]

Rozier with 0 pts, 3 rebs, 2 assists in 17 minutes tonight for a -20 +/-. Boston's bench was horrible in the loss to Atlanta. Cannot figure out what happened to this guy. He was good last year.

Other than a dip in 3pt %, he is basically the same dude he was last year. I really don't like using a playoff series as a barometer for a player's ability, it's so matchup dependent. Rozier played well early in the playoffs but he really against the Cavs.

IMO, Stephens is a master at putting players in a position to succeed and he has wrung everything out of a sub par player in Rozier. It's unfortunate for Terry that he didn't hit free agency last year because some team would have given him a real mess of a contract. At the rate he is playing this season he's likely to end up on a 2 year deal for probably around the MLE.

 

[slinslin]

Okobo and Milwaukees first is the most I would be willing to give up for Smith.

I'd consider Warren if the result is increasing out capspace and I am concerned that Warren might be fools gold.

 

[Mainstreet]

Point guard Isaiah Whitehead signs a two-way contract with the Pistons.

His past stats are decent.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/whiteis01.html

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[JCSunsfan]

Okobo and Milwaukees first is the most I would be willing to give up for Smith.

I'd consider Warren if the result is increasing out capspace and I am concerned that Warren might be fools gold.

I think you have to give up more than that just to make the salaries work. I would do Okobo and Daniels, plus the pick.

 

[Chaplin]

Point guard Isaiah Whitehead signs a two-way contract with the Pistons.

His past stats are decent.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/whiteis01.html

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I think it's time to put this to bed MS. You posting about every single mediocre point guard not fit to start for this team isn't helping much--we don't need another backup point guard. We need a starter.

 

[Folster]

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[Covert Rain]

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That a boy James. Ruin any chance of future transactions involving the Celtics! I hope he was more tactful.

 

[1Sun]

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Would have preferred better diplomacy, but relieved we are staying away from Rozier.

 

[Krangodnzr]

That a boy James. Ruin any chance of future transactions involving the Celtics! I hope he was more tactful.

Rozier is a dogshit player.

 

[slinslin]

Would have preferred better diplomacy, but relieved we are staying away from Rozier.

you need to take some internet 101 crash courses.

 

[Mainstreet]

Maybe it's all about negotiation on Rozier. Perhaps Jones is trying to get the price down to something like Daniels and a second round pick.