As an example, a .300 hitter doesn’t get a hit exactly every 3 or so AB, he goes 4-4 in some games and 0-4 in others and it settles out to 3 our of 10 ...
... How did batting order specifically become the deciding factor to you?
I agree with your first point. But, averages are misleading. Especially team stats. It does not take inconsistency or unbalance into account. If a hitter is hot and cold, there are others to pick him up. But if a team is hot and cold, well, check the following example.
If the D-backs in a 4-game series score 8, 2, 2 and 2, they'll average 3.5 per game for the series. And if the opposition scores 0, 4, 4 and 4, they'll average only 3.0 per game. But the opposition will win 3 out of the 4 games. Which, in actuality, has been happening to the D-backs.
Unfortunately, your theory is not just hypothetical. D-backs hitters have been horribly underperforming by not scoring after the 4th inning in most games. That is a fact. Winning games is about clutch hitting. It is not just about batting
orders. It is about lineups. Such as hardly ever playing our best hitters together in a game.
Lovullo announced this month that he would discontinue his policy of constantly benching starters. And two days later, he went right back to it. It goes beyond a platoon system. His short attention span, or lack of confidence in his decisions, is killing the team.
We've had a good starting rotation, even with injuries. We had a good bullpen and superior closing staff. And we have a solid lineup of line drive hitters when they are not trying to hit every pitch indiscriminately out of the park. If we had a Manager with a track record of success in National League baseball, that would tend to produce good results consistently.
DWKB, if there were not a problem, we wouldn't be talking about it. No rationalization can change that. Colorado has taken advantage of the disappointing performances of the Dodgers and Giants. The D-backs have not. Even though it is there for the taking.
Tory Lovullo has enticed us, then pulled out the rug with his stubbornness and lying to the Press (and fans). As a D-backs fan, I don't like it! I think he is failing right before our eyes.