3rd QBs, John Skelton, and Scouting Spread Quarterbacks

kerouac9

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I didn't really have enough for a series of threads, but I wanted to know what other people were thinking about this stuff:

(1) 13/20, 153 yds, 7.65 ypa, 1 TD, 2INT

Those are Caleb Hanie's stats from the NFC Championship game. Third year player and former undrafted free agent. When a 3rd quarterback enters a game, he provides an excellent tactical advantage to the offense, because no defense has time to prepare a game plan for a 3rd QB, and there's little film on most 3rd quarterbacks, anyway. Hanie had 14 career passing attempts before coming in relief of Todd Collins. If a 3rd quarterback has NFL skills at all, he should have some success.

The reason why 3rd quarterbacks and backups don't become starters frequently is because the NFL figures everyone out, and once the tape becomes available, it becomes clear that a guy just doesn't have the skills to play in the NFL and make the necessary adjustments, whether mental or physical, to counter opposing defenses.

(2) 15/37, 146 yds, 3.9 YPA, 0 TD, 0 INT

Those are John Skelton's stats from his first career start against an overmatched and undermotivated Denver Broncos team. There's some discussion here that Skelton deserves consideration as a future starting quarterback. But when factors were overwhelmingly in Skelton's favor in his first couple of starts (teams with nothing to play for, superior surrounding cast, etc), Skelton didn't put together results that show up on the stat sheet.

The most disturbing fact about Skelton is frustrating accuracy problems. Skelton can develop greater command of the offense, but he's not suddenly going to be able to put the ball on a receiver. Skelton has great physical skills, but without the accuracy that's necessary to complete passes at the NFL level, it will be impossible to put faith in him as a starter.

Aaron Rogers attempted 59 passes before being named the starter for the Green Bay Packers in his fourth season. He completed 35 of them (59%).

(3) The proliferation of the spread offense in NCAA has caused some challenges for scouting and projecting players to the pro level. The spread offense inflates the completion percentage of quarterbacks as well as their YPA because receivers gain much of their yardage after the catch. The stats don't tell the whole story on spread quarterbacks.

When evaluating shotgun spread quarterbacks, you have to watch them play. Not highlight reels, but actual games. How long do they spend in the pocket? What happens when their first option isn't available? Can they fit the ball into tight windows? How do they perform when the pocket collapses around them? Can they get the ball outside the hashes with NFL speed and accuracy?

The problem with scouting spread quarterbacks from a fan's perspective is that we don't have access to coach's film (which shows the entire field from behind the QB), and we don't have the opportunity to interview the player. In the meeting rooms at the Combine, spread quarterbacks are likely grilled by scouts and coaching staffs to walk through their decision-making process against defensive looks. And even then, those conversations have to happen in seconds instead of minutes when the bullets are live.
 

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overall, I agree with you. Another comparison to make regarding third QBs is Joe Webb of the Vikings. Maybe a better comparison as both he and Skelton were rookies, where Hanie had at least had three years to learn at the NFL level.

I am not ready to give up on Skelton -- in a "no CBA issues" world, a solid offseason and training camp of work would have set him up to have a "real" audition in the preseason. unfortunately, it could be a wasted offseason of development for Skelton.
 

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I didn't really have enough for a series of threads, but I wanted to know what other people were thinking about this stuff:

(1) 13/20, 153 yds, 7.65 ypa, 1 TD, 2INT

Those are Caleb Hanie's stats from the NFC Championship game. Third year player and former undrafted free agent. When a 3rd quarterback enters a game, he provides an excellent tactical advantage to the offense, because no defense has time to prepare a game plan for a 3rd QB, and there's little film on most 3rd quarterbacks, anyway. Hanie had 14 career passing attempts before coming in relief of Todd Collins. If a 3rd quarterback has NFL skills at all, he should have some success.

The reason why 3rd quarterbacks and backups don't become starters frequently is because the NFL figures everyone out, and once the tape becomes available, it becomes clear that a guy just doesn't have the skills to play in the NFL and make the necessary adjustments, whether mental or physical, to counter opposing defenses.

(2) 15/37, 146 yds, 3.9 YPA, 0 TD, 0 INT

Those are John Skelton's stats from his first career start against an overmatched and undermotivated Denver Broncos team. There's some discussion here that Skelton deserves consideration as a future starting quarterback. But when factors were overwhelmingly in Skelton's favor in his first couple of starts (teams with nothing to play for, superior surrounding cast, etc), Skelton didn't put together results that show up on the stat sheet.

The most disturbing fact about Skelton is frustrating accuracy problems. Skelton can develop greater command of the offense, but he's not suddenly going to be able to put the ball on a receiver. Skelton has great physical skills, but without the accuracy that's necessary to complete passes at the NFL level, it will be impossible to put faith in him as a starter.

Aaron Rogers attempted 59 passes before being named the starter for the Green Bay Packers in his fourth season. He completed 35 of them (59%).

(3) The proliferation of the spread offense in NCAA has caused some challenges for scouting and projecting players to the pro level. The spread offense inflates the completion percentage of quarterbacks as well as their YPA because receivers gain much of their yardage after the catch. The stats don't tell the whole story on spread quarterbacks.

When evaluating shotgun spread quarterbacks, you have to watch them play. Not highlight reels, but actual games. How long do they spend in the pocket? What happens when their first option isn't available? Can they fit the ball into tight windows? How do they perform when the pocket collapses around them? Can they get the ball outside the hashes with NFL speed and accuracy?

The problem with scouting spread quarterbacks from a fan's perspective is that we don't have access to coach's film (which shows the entire field from behind the QB), and we don't have the opportunity to interview the player. In the meeting rooms at the Combine, spread quarterbacks are likely grilled by scouts and coaching staffs to walk through their decision-making process against defensive looks. And even then, those conversations have to happen in seconds instead of minutes when the bullets are live.

As I recall the first time Hall came in there were many post that said we had found our QBOTF. Hopefully we do not pick our wives after one quarter so beware of 1 game or 4 game QBOTF. There were also many post that said after we signed Warner he would not last three games before he was down for the count.
 

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overall, I agree with you. Another comparison to make regarding third QBs is Joe Webb of the Vikings. Maybe a better comparison as both he and Skelton were rookies, where Hanie had at least had three years to learn at the NFL level.

I am not ready to give up on Skelton -- in a "no CBA issues" world, a solid offseason and training camp of work would have set him up to have a "real" audition in the preseason. unfortunately, it could be a wasted offseason of development for Skelton.[/QUOTE


We should not give up on Skelton nor should we anoint him the QBOTF or make a draft choice based on his performance or lack thereof.
 

perivolaki

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I agree that Skelton had some poorly thrown balls but he had more than his share of balls dropped by receivers too.

Rodgers is probably a poor comparison because he played a much higher level competetion in college than Skelton. Skelton has much more to learn as a rookie than Rodgers did when he came into the league.

I noticed he had some throws that he put right between the numbers, passes he probably thought were good throws, only to have them batted down by much tighter coverage than what hes ever been used to.

He may be able to learn that in the NFL a good pass in tight coverage may have to be thrown in way that keeps the defender from getting his hands on it. I'm sure he didn't have that problem at Fordham.
 

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When a 3rd quarterback enters a game, he provides an excellent tactical advantage to the offense, because no defense has time to prepare a game plan for a 3rd QB, and there's little film on most 3rd quarterbacks.

The Cards just went through an entire season using only 3rd string quarterbacks, and it appears that we were able to surprise 5 teams into somehow losing to us using the strategy you're outlining.

I hope the FO doesn't read this because if they do then next year we're going to see 16 different 3rd string QB's, with each one starting one game apiece. Not only will they save a boatload on player salaries, but the jersey sales alone would make Dollar Bill's little heart glow like ET's on crack.

JTS
 

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Totally agree with you on this and Skelton and thought the same thing after his first game. Another example this season of little to no video tape leading to a tremendou advantage for a young QB was Matt Flynn and he doesn't have half the physical skill of Skelton.

I'll take it one step further and another reason I am not hopeful for Johnny boy. IMO If you start 4 games at any point in beginning your career and don't have at least one "Wow" game or half or hell series, theres probably a pretty good chance your not going to be a ten year starter.
 

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Totally agree with you on this and Skelton and thought the same thing after his first game. Another example this season of little to no video tape leading to a tremendou advantage for a young QB was Matt Flynn and he doesn't have half the physical skill of Skelton.

I'll take it one step further and another reason I am not hopeful for Johnny boy. IMO If you start 4 games at any point in beginning your career and don't have at least one "Wow" game or half or hell series, theres probably a pretty good chance your not going to be a ten year starter.

Skelton had a couple tiny flashes against the Cowboys. Maybe? The bomb to Roberts and the FG drive at the end? Kinda a couple of "series". Sort of?
 

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Skelton had a couple tiny flashes against the Cowboys. Maybe? The bomb to Roberts and the FG drive at the end? Kinda a couple of "series". Sort of?

If you have to ask you have your answer:)

I wanted to love that Skelton bomb too but i watched it a few times on TIVO but it was just an okay throw to a wide open guy.

Better then Anderson who would have overthrown him by ten yards, but Aaron Rodgers hes not.
 

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If you have to ask you have your answer:)

I wanted to love that Skelton bomb too but i watched it a few times on TIVO but it was just an okay throw to a wide open guy.

Better then Anderson who would have overthrown him by ten yards, but Aaron Rodgers hes not.

You said "series." :). I am just glad Skelton didn't put up Rusty Smith numbers.
 

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If you have to ask you have your answer:)

I wanted to love that Skelton bomb too but i watched it a few times on TIVO but it was just an okay throw to a wide open guy.

Better then Anderson who would have overthrown him by ten yards, but Aaron Rodgers hes not.

I see the argument K9 is and you are trying to make. However it just can't be overstated the level of talent that Skelton came from at Fordham. He was considered a project to begin with who shouldn't even get his first snap for 2 maybe 3 years. The physical attributes are there. that much is obvious. To say a guy like him considering where he came from isn't gonna have IT this early in his career after being thrown in the fire is way beyond pre-mature.

You may be right. But in no way shape or form should he be given up on. Considering the circumstances I still say he performed admirably.
 

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Regarding Skelton, I think situation has to factor in. Skelton was stepping in with a team that was just going through the motions and giving minimal effort and behind a line that couldn't block.

Haney was coming in to a team that was desperate to win playing for their SB lives. It's an apples and oranges comparison. I can't think of any similar situation where a team is in as much disarray as AZ was when Skelton got the start to use as precedent. The only thing we know for sure is that the team actually put forth an effort with Skelton as the QB which can't be said about DA or Hall. You can't use the "competition level" excuse, since both DA and Hall QBed games against NFC West teams. Whether Skelton had anything to do with the teams improvement or not is up for debate.

Expanding on the spread offense statements, I think it's important to remember that we basically run that offense. 3 and 4 wide out sets seem to make up the majority of our plays, especially out of shotgun. Knocking spread QBs for lack of pro style offense experience doesn't really work when you are talking about coming to a Whiz coached offense. Leinart came from a pro style offense and couldn't play in the spread. No wonder Whiz didn't like him.
 

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I see the argument K9 is and you are trying to make. However it just can't be overstated the level of talent that Skelton came from at Fordham. He was considered a project to begin with who shouldn't even get his first snap for 2 maybe 3 years. The physical attributes are there. that much is obvious. To say a guy like him considering where he came from isn't gonna have IT this early in his career after being thrown in the fire is way beyond pre-mature.

You may be right. But in no way shape or form should he be given up on. Considering the circumstances I still say he performed admirably.
I've said it a thousand times and I'll say it yet again...the Cardinals must draft a real QBOF and sign a veteran as insurance because Skelton is not the man right now or in the near future.

Like Shane said, he needs two to three years to learn and even then will be an iffy prospect. I would not give up on him because there is a lot to like and he could eventually become something. However, he should be the Cardinals third string QB next year and remain there for quite some time if this team is to succeed.
 

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Skelton did better than DA and Hall, our Whiz guys. Don't know what he will amount to, but dang, he doesn't have much of a shot according to some. I am with the others who thinks he has at least earned the #2 with a chance at getting better.

QBs have had bad games in the playoffs, in the regular season too. Skelton got thrown in and swam. You guys can critique him up the wazoo but there hasn't been enough to plead either way IMO. I did see some good stuff, with more time under his belt, a better defense to accompany, and a balanced playcall that suits a newbie...who am I kidding, rip him to pieces.
Done defending Skelton and Newton for now. :) I still think Skelton and Newton will be better than everybody in this draft. Might be one big surprise guy from the later rounds, but you know.
 
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Whiz said there were absolutely no plan to play Sketon at all this year. I dont know if he'll be any good or not but you can't compare him to guys like Hanie who have been through 3 training camps, regular seasons, and off season programs.
 

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Skelton has a lot of question marks. In order for him to even sniff success he needs to improve in a lot of areas both physical and mental. You can say he is a work in progress and much of what he does in the next two years will determine how far he progresses.

I straddle the fence with Skelton. I haven't seen anything from him that would make you go Wow! or anything that makes you go Ugh!

It will take a lot for him to get to the level where he would be considered a legit QB you would want starting all the time. I suspect he ends up like Garcia and the likes not great nor bad but mediocre.
 

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Regarding Skelton, I think situation has to factor in. Skelton was stepping in with a team that was just going through the motions and giving minimal effort and behind a line that couldn't block.

Haney was coming in to a team that was desperate to win playing for their SB lives. It's an apples and oranges comparison. I can't think of any similar situation where a team is in as much disarray as AZ was when Skelton got the start to use as precedent. The only thing we know for sure is that the team actually put forth an effort with Skelton as the QB which can't be said about DA or Hall. You can't use the "competition level" excuse, since both DA and Hall QBed games against NFC West teams. Whether Skelton had anything to do with the teams improvement or not is up for debate.

Expanding on the spread offense statements, I think it's important to remember that we basically run that offense. 3 and 4 wide out sets seem to make up the majority of our plays, especially out of shotgun. Knocking spread QBs for lack of pro style offense experience doesn't really work when you are talking about coming to a Whiz coached offense. Leinart came from a pro style offense and couldn't play in the spread. No wonder Whiz didn't like him.

Excellent point that is getting overlooked as the thread turns into a Skelton debate. The spread is basically what the Cards were running with Warner and tried to run with the 3 guys this year. It is precisely why I was saying this time last year that the best QB in the 2010 draft for Arizona was Colt McCoy.
 
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kerouac9

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I see the argument K9 is and you are trying to make. However it just can't be overstated the level of talent that Skelton came from at Fordham. He was considered a project to begin with who shouldn't even get his first snap for 2 maybe 3 years. The physical attributes are there. that much is obvious. To say a guy like him considering where he came from isn't gonna have IT this early in his career after being thrown in the fire is way beyond pre-mature.

You may be right. But in no way shape or form should he be given up on. Considering the circumstances I still say he performed admirably.

Is it that different than the level of talent that Joe Webb came from at UAB? I mean, at a certain point, you're either an NFL quarterback, or you're not.

Tavaris Jackson completed 58% of his passes his rookie season coming out of Alabama State. :shrug:

The physical attributes are there, but is the skill set? The guy can complete passes at the NFL level or he can't. I don't think that John Skelton is as poorly equipped for the NFL as Max Hall is. Not by any means. Max Hall does not deserve to play professional football--maybe not at any level. John Skelton can probably be a nice little #2 quarterback for his career. He's shown that he's a guy who can come in and not lose games for you.

But I don't have a lot of hope that John Skelton is going to be able to develop into a long-term starter, even in 4 or 5 seasons. He either doesn't throw a catchable ball or he can't put the ball in the position where guys can get it consistently enough. That's not something that develops with more reps in practice. That's something you either can do or can't do.
 

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Skelton has a lot of question marks. In order for him to even sniff success he needs to improve in a lot of areas both physical and mental. You can say he is a work in progress and much of what he does in the next two years will determine how far he progresses.

I straddle the fence with Skelton. I haven't seen anything from him that would make you go Wow! or anything that makes you go Ugh!

It will take a lot for him to get to the level where he would be considered a legit QB you would want starting all the time. I suspect he ends up like Garcia and the likes not great nor bad but mediocre.

We should be so lucky, as to have a "mediocre" Pro Bowl Jeff Garcia out of Skelton.
 

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I'll take it one step further and another reason I am not hopeful for Johnny boy. IMO If you start 4 games at any point in beginning your career and don't have at least one "Wow" game or half or hell series, theres probably a pretty good chance your not going to be a ten year starter.

I think that is premature. I am not saying Skelton is the guy, but coming from a tiny college football program and being 3rd string for most of the year (i.e. no practice time), its just not realistic to expect even in-game consistency.
 

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Is it that different than the level of talent that Joe Webb came from at UAB? I mean, at a certain point, you're either an NFL quarterback, or you're not.

Tavaris Jackson completed 58% of his passes his rookie season coming out of Alabama State. :shrug:

The physical attributes are there, but is the skill set? The guy can complete passes at the NFL level or he can't. I don't think that John Skelton is as poorly equipped for the NFL as Max Hall is. Not by any means. Max Hall does not deserve to play professional football--maybe not at any level. John Skelton can probably be a nice little #2 quarterback for his career. He's shown that he's a guy who can come in and not lose games for you.

But I don't have a lot of hope that John Skelton is going to be able to develop into a long-term starter, even in 4 or 5 seasons. He either doesn't throw a catchable ball or he can't put the ball in the position where guys can get it consistently enough. That's not something that develops with more reps in practice. That's something you either can do or can't do.

The suggestion that throwing a football accurately is inate is inane.

Beyond the required physical attributes and acuity there is rep after rep after rep to develop the skill set.

Further... when we are addressing Skelton's attrubutes as a passer, we are talking about being off by inches, not D-O-A's off by postal code. And we've all noted more than a few dropped throws, which were certainly not his fault.

(Check the Dallas game, for 3,4 examples.)

No idea what his future will be, and suggest that no one else does either.
 
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kerouac9

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The suggestion that throwing a football accurately is inate is inane.

Beyond the required physical attributes and acuity there is rep after rep after rep to develop the skill set.

Further... when we are addressing Skelton's attrubutes as a passer, we are talking about being off by inches, not D-O-A's off by postal code. And we've all noted more than a few dropped throws, which were certainly not his fault.

(Check the Dallas game, for 3,4 examples.)

No idea what his future will be, and suggest that no one else does either.

And he's been throwing a football for more than half his life, in all likelihood. It's not like another summer or two of practice reps is going to change that. I don't think it's innate, but I don't think it's something that you can refine over a career, either.

I think that the fact that the ball is off by inches or feet instead of yards makes it less likely that Skelton will be able to fix whatever problem he has with ball placement, rather than more. It's easier to correct a problem where the ball is being sprayed all over the field (a la Michael Vick in Atlanta) because that's likely a fundamentals problem. When the ball is just not being put in a place where guys can hold on to it in a tight window, setting your feet in the pocket isn't going to correct that.

The dropped throws are, IMO, a symptom of the problem, not something that excuses it. Our WRs weren't exactly sure-handed all year, but when a guy comes in and the problem gets drastically worse, you have to look at what the variable is.

I think a system can add or subtract five or six points to a player's completion percentage, ceteris peribus, but Skelton needs to add 15 points to his completion percentage in order to be a starting-caliber QB.
 

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For discussion sake, Aikman (not trying to compare to Skelton) completed 52.9% of his passes as a rookie. Two years later, he was up to 65%. What happened there?

Just wondering, hope people don't get all excited. :)
 
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kerouac9

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For discussion sake, Aikman (not trying to compare to Skelton) completed 52.9% of his passes as a rookie. Two years later, he was up to 65%. What happened there?

Just wondering, hope people don't get all excited. :)

Norv Turner became his offensive coordinator in 1991, which is when his completion percentage jumped 10 points (it's REALLY unusual for this to happen).

From 1989 to 1990, the Cowboys also added a lot of offensive weapons. The leading rusher for Dallas in 1989 was Hershel Walker, who averaged 3.0 YPC; the leading receiver was Kelvin Martin (yes, that Kelvin Martin) with 46 receptions and 644 yards.

In 1990, Dallas added Jay Novacek and Emmitt Smith. Smith was a Pro Bowler as a rookie and Aikman's completion percentage increased a little more than 4 points.

Michael Irvin also exploded in his 3rd season in Dallas (1991), making 1st team All-Pro.
 

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LOL, when K9 goes after our QB, I feel like Levi Brown, I am just too lazy to try and stop him. :p
 

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