3rd QBs, John Skelton, and Scouting Spread Quarterbacks

[Mulli]

Norv Turner became his offensive coordinator in 1991, which is when his completion percentage jumped 10 points (it's REALLY unusual for this to happen).

From 1989 to 1990, the Cowboys also added a lot of offensive weapons. The leading rusher for Dallas in 1989 was Hershel Walker, who averaged 3.0 YPC; the leading receiver was Kelvin Martin (yes, that Kelvin Martin) with 46 receptions and 644 yards.

In 1990, Dallas added Jay Novacek and Emmitt Smith. Smith was a Pro Bowler as a rookie and Aikman's completion percentage increased a little more than 4 points.

Michael Irvin also exploded in his 3rd season in Dallas (1991), making 1st team All-Pro.

so you are saying there is a chance?

 

[Cardiac]

LOL, when K9 goes after our QB, I feel like Levi Brown, I am just too lazy to try and stop him.

5/5

Thanks for the belly laugh.

 

[Mulli]

LOL, when K9 goes after our QB, I feel like Levi Brown, I am just too lazy to try and stop him.

Not too lazy, too tired like Levi Brown from too much pass blocking.

/smellivision

 

[Duckjake]

K-9. I saw a blurb in a Senior Bowl blog about the QBs having to adjust to the size of the NFL football compared to the one they used in college. Fatter, I think is what they said.

It sure would seem to explain why guys have trouble initially in the NFL. And really explain why a guy like MiniMax and others with small hands would always struggle.

I know for a fact I can throw those Jr. Size logo footballs a lot more accurately and farther than i can an NFL regulation football. Because I have big palms but short fingers. Kills my guitar playing.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

And he's been throwing a football for more than half his life, in all likelihood. It's not like another summer or two of practice reps is going to change that. I don't think it's innate, but I don't think it's something that you can refine over a career, either.

If you'd had seen Terry Bradshaw and Steve Young in their early years, you might have a different opinion.

I think that the fact that the ball is off by inches or feet instead of yards makes it less likely that Skelton will be able to fix whatever problem he has with ball placement, rather than more. It's easier to correct a problem where the ball is being sprayed all over the field (a la Michael Vick in Atlanta) because that's likely a fundamentals problem. When the ball is just not being put in a place where guys can hold on to it in a tight window, setting your feet in the pocket isn't going to correct that.

Well, I think it is easier to solve a problem of inches, than feet or yards, which may speak more to timing than problems with accuracy.

The dropped throws are, IMO, a symptom of the problem, not something that excuses it. Our WRs weren't exactly sure-handed all year, but when a guy comes in and the problem gets drastically worse, you have to look at what the variable is.

The variables, it seems to me, are Skelton throwing and receivers actually being hit in the numbers for the first time (lol)

I think a system can add or subtract five or six points to a player's completion percentage, ceteris peribus, but Skelton needs to add 15 points to his completion percentage in order to be a starting-caliber QB.

Can't disagree there, and hope to see it improve.

bump****

 

[wa52lz]

Norv Turner became his offensive coordinator in 1991, which is when his completion percentage jumped 10 points (it's REALLY unusual for this to happen).

From 1989 to 1990, the Cowboys also added a lot of offensive weapons. The leading rusher for Dallas in 1989 was Hershel Walker, who averaged 3.0 YPC; the leading receiver was Kelvin Martin (yes, that Kelvin Martin) with 46 receptions and 644 yards.

In 1990, Dallas added Jay Novacek and Emmitt Smith. Smith was a Pro Bowler as a rookie and Aikman's completion percentage increased a little more than 4 points.

Michael Irvin also exploded in his 3rd season in Dallas (1991), making 1st team All-Pro.

Yes it is very rare for a QB top show a marked improvement (around 10%) in comp % from the first year of play to the third:
Boomer Easison 50-58.2
Jim Harbaugh 48.8-57.7
Vinny Testeverde 43-53.8
Chris Miller 42.4-53.2
Bert Jones 39.8-59
Peyton Manning 56.7-62.5
David Carr 52.5-61.2
Matt Schaub 47.1-66.7
John Hadl 41.2-53.6
Don Majowski 43.3-58.9
Steve DeBerg 45.4-57.9
Roger Staubach 48.9-59.7
Drew Beldsoe 49.9-59.9(his 4th year actually)
Neil Lomax 50.4-59
Joe Ferguson 44.5-52.6
Trent Edwards 56.1-65.5
Bernie Kosar 50-62

Looking starting QB’s who have played for AZ-Indy, alphabetically, I was only able to find a few

 

[WildBB]

Totally agree with you on this and Skelton and thought the same thing after his first game. Another example this season of little to no video tape leading to a tremendou advantage for a young QB was Matt Flynn and he doesn't have half the physical skill of Skelton.

I'll take it one step further and another reason I am not hopeful for Johnny boy. IMO If you start 4 games at any point in beginning your career and don't have at least one "Wow" game or half or hell series, theres probably a pretty good chance your not going to be a ten year starter.

He's still b/u quality right now. In two years it could possibly be more.

Expecting more now (or last year) is not realistic. Whiz came right out and flat said, before he started games, "he's nowhere near ready". It showed.

 

[desertdawg]

Not too lazy, too tired like Levi Brown from too much pass blocking.

/smellivision

I have Levi Brown from "The Penn State" rated at 115 lbs out of 100.

 

[kerouac9]

Yes it is very rare for a QB top show a marked improvement (around 10%) in comp % from the first year of play to the third:
Boomer Easison 50-58.2
Jim Harbaugh 48.8-57.7
Vinny Testeverde 43-53.8
Chris Miller 42.4-53.2
Bert Jones 39.8-59
Peyton Manning 56.7-62.5
David Carr 52.5-61.2
Matt Schaub 47.1-66.7
John Hadl 41.2-53.6
Don Majowski 43.3-58.9
Steve DeBerg 45.4-57.9
Roger Staubach 48.9-59.7
Drew Beldsoe 49.9-59.9(his 4th year actually)
Neil Lomax 50.4-59
Joe Ferguson 44.5-52.6
Trent Edwards 56.1-65.5
Bernie Kosar 50-62

Looking starting QB’s who have played for AZ-Indy, alphabetically, I was only able to find a few

So... Basically no one in the 15 years or more, except for a #1 overall pick.. Thanks for essentially proving my point for me. I'm sure that Joe Ferguson's example (68 career QB rating, 90 attempts in his second season, 48 in his third) is extremely germane. As are the 70 attempts that Matt Schaub had his rookie season and the 27(!) he had his third year.

You've GOT to be kidding me.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Is it that different than the level of talent that Joe Webb came from at UAB?

Yes. And it's not even close. Awful point.

Tavaris Jackson completed 58% of his passes his rookie season coming out of Alabama State. .

Tavaris is better than Skelton and was drafted in the 1st round for that exact reason. What's your point?

The physical attributes are there, but is the skill set? The guy can complete passes at the NFL level or he can't. I don't think that John Skelton is as poorly equipped for the NFL as Max Hall is. Not by any means. Max Hall does not deserve to play professional football--maybe not at any level. John Skelton can probably be a nice little #2 quarterback for his career. He's shown that he's a guy who can come in and not lose games for you.

I think this is what most people here think Skelton is. I happen to agree. He at least throws an NFL ball from a velocity and read perspective unlike Max even if it is often off the mark.

But I don't have a lot of hope that John Skelton is going to be able to develop into a long-term starter, even in 4 or 5 seasons. He either doesn't throw a catchable ball or he can't put the ball in the position where guys can get it consistently enough. That's not something that develops with more reps in practice. That's something you either can do or can't do.

If you don't think quarterbacks complete a higher percentage of passes as they get more acclimated and develop their skills (footwork, arm strength, etc) then there's no arguing with you. Skelton is what he is, a guy that at his absolute best will complete about high 50's in completion % and go maybe half his games and provide occasional flashes of athleticism. He's Josh McCown redux. Nice backup option I guess with some seasoning.

 

[Mulli]

Mao, Jackson was drafted in the second, by point is the same.

 

[kerouac9]

If you don't think quarterbacks complete a higher percentage of passes as they get more acclimated and develop their skills (footwork, arm strength, etc) then there's no arguing with you. Skelton is what he is, a guy that at his absolute best will complete about high 50's in completion % and go maybe half his games and provide occasional flashes of athleticism. He's Josh McCown redux. Nice backup option I guess with some seasoning.

If you're going to wrap me for putting words in your mouth, don't shove verbiage into mine.

I think that Skelton will increase his completion percentage as he becomes more accustomed to the offense, but, as I ACTUALLY SAID IN MY POST, I don't think he'll be able to increase it by the 10-15 points which would be necessary to move him into the conversation as a legit NFL starter.

 

[desertdawg]

I think that Skelton will increase his completion percentage as he becomes more accustomed to the offense, but, as I ACTUALLY SAID IN MY POST, I don't think he'll be able to increase it by the 10-15 points which would be necessary to move him into the conversation as a legit NFL starter.

If he were to start, he has Whiz constantly calling pass and a good receiver core to toss it to. He looks good when the rush comes in and that can't really be taught, a lot of NFL QB's act/look scared when the rush comes in, Skelton stays cool. I don't know if many QB's could get the completion percentage you desire while playing for this current team and play call.

My jury is still out on Skelton, hasn't had enough time on the field for me to go all future prediction on him. I know he outperformed the washed up probowl scud in the same offense (Whiz didn't switch it up at all) with out the experience. I love how he doesn't turn it over much.

I think his potential can be reached sooner than the 2-3 year plan mumbojumbo. I have no idea how good he will be when he reaches that potential.

 

[kerouac9]

If he were to start, he has Whiz constantly calling pass and a good receiver core to toss it to. He looks good when the rush comes in and that can't really be taught, a lot of NFL QB's act/look scared when the rush comes in, Skelton stays cool. I don't know if many QB's could get the completion percentage you desire while playing for this current team and play call.

My jury is still out on Skelton, hasn't had enough time on the field for me to go all future prediction on him. I know he outperformed the washed up probowl scud in the same offense (Whiz didn't switch it up at all) with out the experience. I love how he doesn't turn it over much.

I think his potential can be reached sooner than the 2-3 year plan mumbojumbo. I have no idea how good he will be when he reaches that potential.

They were not running the same offense once Skelton came in. Neither Hall nor Anderson ran that stupid WR screen pass that we seemed to throw 8 times a game for a total of 6 yards.

It's great that Skelton stays cool, but it doesn't say much that you're better than the 2009's worst QB in the NFL and a guy who doesn't deserve to have a job in the UFL. With a Super Bowl caliber playcaller and a WR corps with two of the top 50 WRs in the NFL (and one of the top 5), I'm not sure how you can't complete at least 50% of your passes.

Skelton's an NFL player, just not a starting quarterback. If he's an eight-year #2 QB, that's good value for that fifth round pick. Even if we had to give up one of the cornerbacks who is starting in the Super Bowl next Sunday.

 

[DoTheDew]

So... Basically no one in the 15 years or more, except for a #1 overall pick.. Thanks for essentially proving my point for me. I'm sure that Joe Ferguson's example (68 career QB rating, 90 attempts in his second season, 48 in his third) is extremely germane. As are the 70 attempts that Matt Schaub had his rookie season and the 27(!) he had his third year.

You've GOT to be kidding me.

Schaub, Pennington, Vick, McNabb, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Alex Smith, Matt Hasselbeck, Trent Green, Steve McNair.

I'm done looking people up. All those guys went from high 40-low 50% passers in their first year or two, to high 50-low 60% passers by their 4th year.

The players who started out in the high 50s to low 60s saw negligible progress in their completion % whereas almost every player who started poorly in that department and continued to start, jumped at least to the high 50s.

K9, I think there is a sort of regression towards the mean with completion % with QBs, where the poor ones as they refine the flaws in their games can consistently get to the high 50s to low 60s. Adequate at least, and the worse they were to begin with the bigger leap they appeared to make. Rarely do they reach the mid 60s that only a few QBs ever do. Point is that it is not the exception but the rule that QBs who continue to start become at least 58% passers after two years. The exception are guys like DA who for whatever reason can't adjust their game.

If you don't like Skelton, base it on something rational. Don't base it on something historically inaccurate like a so called inability to improve their completion percentage by 10%.

 

[kerouac9]

Schaub (already discussed), Pennington 20 attempts his first two years in the league, Vick already discussed), McNabb (216 rookie attempts, 49.1% completion, 69/133 as a starter--that's 51.8%--his career completion %), Eli Manning (finished rookie year completing 69.6, 51.4, and 66.7% of his passes), Jason Campbell (0 pass attempts as a rookie, 53.1% completion percentage second season is 7.7 points above his career), Kyle Orton (51.6% as a rookie, 58.1% for his career), Alex Smith(50.9% completions as a rookie, 57.1% for his career), Matt Hasselbeck (seriously, are you joking here? First season as a starter--he attempted 29 passes his first two years in the NFL--54.8% completion, 60.1% for his career), Trent Green (attempted 1 pass in his first four NFL seasons, first season with more than 1 attempt, he complted 54.6% of his passes, and his career completion % is 60.6), Steve McNair (attempted 80 passes as a rookie (4 games 2 starts); second season attempted 143 and completed 61.3% of those passes--actually better than his career rate).

I'm done looking people up. All those guys went from high 40-low 50% passers in their first year or two, to high 50-low 60% passers by their 4th year.

The players who started out in the high 50s to low 60s saw negligible progress in their completion % whereas almost every player who started poorly in that department and continued to start, jumped at least to the high 50s.

K9, I think there is a sort of regression towards the mean with completion % with QBs, where the poor ones as they refine the flaws in their games can consistently get to the high 50s to low 60s. Adequate at least, and the worse they were to begin with the bigger leap they appeared to make. Rarely do they reach the mid 60s that only a few QBs ever do. Point is that it is not the exception but the rule that QBs who continue to start become at least 58% passers after two years. The exception are guys like DA who for whatever reason can't adjust their game.

If you don't like Skelton, base it on something rational. Don't base it on something historically inaccurate like a so called inability to improve their completion percentage by 10%.

That was fun. It's nice when you check your own facts to make sure they line up with your critique. I'm surprised you didn't float Tom Brady's name in there, since he was 1 for 3 his rookie year and managed to double that completion percentage his second season.

It is rational. QBs who succeed in the NFL don't start off completing less than 50% of their passes in their first four starts. Those guys find themselves in backup jobs or out of the NFL. Max Hall should be headed out of the NFL; John Skelton should be headed to a backup job.

For every QB who you name there who managed to become good starting QBs, I can add to the list the number of failures who didn't manage to improve upon their games at all: Brodie Croyle, Charlie Frye, Trent Edwards, Kyle Boller, Chris Redman, J.P. Losman, Tyler Thigpen. All these guys were significantly more productive than John Skelton early in their careers and still managed not to be able to build on that success. I'm not sure that I wouldn't rather have any of those guys as my starting quarterback instead of Skelton.

55% completion percentage is the Mendoza Line for NFL quarterbacks. John Skelton fell seven points below that in an offense where he was throwing gimme passes a lot of the time.

The issue with John Skelton is that we remember the good individual plays but forget that the offense was almost completely ineffective under his leadership. Quarterbacks that succeed in the NFL just don't look as bad as John Skelton did in his first four starts. You have to have an alternate plan for the future than John Skelton, starting with this draft.

 

[DoTheDew]

That was fun. It's nice when you check your own facts to make sure they line up with your critique. I'm surprised you didn't float Tom Brady's name in there, since he was 1 for 3 his rookie year and managed to double that completion percentage his second season.

It is rational. QBs who succeed in the NFL don't start off completing less than 50% of their passes in their first four starts. Those guys find themselves in backup jobs or out of the NFL. Max Hall should be headed out of the NFL; John Skelton should be headed to a backup job.

For every QB who you name there who managed to become good starting QBs, I can add to the list the number of failures who didn't manage to improve upon their games at all: Brodie Croyle, Charlie Frye, Trent Edwards, Kyle Boller, Chris Redman, J.P. Losman, Tyler Thigpen. All these guys were significantly more productive than John Skelton early in their careers and still managed not to be able to build on that success. I'm not sure that I wouldn't rather have any of those guys as my starting quarterback instead of Skelton.

55% completion percentage is the Mendoza Line for NFL quarterbacks. John Skelton fell seven points below that in an offense where he was throwing gimme passes a lot of the time.

The issue with John Skelton is that we remember the good individual plays but forget that the offense was almost completely ineffective under his leadership. Quarterbacks that succeed in the NFL just don't look as bad as John Skelton did in his first four starts. You have to have an alternate plan for the future than John Skelton, starting with this draft.

Pennington 25 attempts his first two years in the league,

FTFY but still a poor example I admit.

McNabb (216 rookie attempts, 49.1% completion, 69/133 as a starter--that's 51.8%--his career completion %),

Multiple pro bowls and a SB appearance. If Skelton does that he's a success. His career % is 58.9 BTW. That is 10.8% higher than his rookie campaign which had more attempts than Skelton.

Eli Manning (finished rookie year completing 69.6, 51.4, and 66.7% of his passes)

,
Yes and his first 5 games he had 38 completion percentage. Worse than Skelton's first 5. Therefor you can't judge Skelton by his first 5 and then pretend like Eli having a worst first 5 means nothing. Stop twisting information.

Jason Campbell (0 pass attempts as a rookie, 53.1% completion percentage second season is 7.7 points below his career)

FTFY. And as I said in my previous post the closer they were to 60% the less they improved in almost every case. That's what regression towards the mean is.

Kyle Orton (51.6% as a rookie, 58.1% for his career)

6.5% improvement would at least make Skelton about equal to Terry Bradshaw.

Alex Smith(50.9% completions as a rookie, 57.1% for his career)

Again, moderate improvement. Not 10% but close.

Matt Hasselbeck (seriously, are you joking here? First season as a starter--he attempted 29 passes his first two years in the NFL--54.8% completion, 60.1% for his career)

I admit that was a reach.

Trent Green (attempted 1 pass in his first four NFL seasons, first season with more than 1 attempt, he complted 54.6% of his passes, and his career completion % is 60.6)

6% again. So we can expect Skelton to get AT LEAST that. But he has more room for improvement so he can come closer to 10%

Steve McNair (attempted 80 passes as a rookie (4 games 2 starts); second season attempted 143 and completed 61.3% of those passes--actually better than his career rate).

If 80 attempts is not enough to base something on but Skelton's 126 is then wow.

Guys who have 80+ attempts are close enough to Skelton to be relevant. Second of all, the numbers were not all rookie numbers, but all taken from the seasons they actually played. I don't care if a guy waited until his 4th season to make his first start. That is still his first start. The point is, 4 starts is hardly enough a sample size. Yes I know there are just as many or more failures. The point is it is way to early to draw a conclusion. I agree we should have an alternate plan, but you act as if there is no chance Skelton will ever develop into a good QB.

You are also double speaking. The fact that you managed to list a ton of guys who were more successful in their first season than not only Skelton but also many of the guys we've discussed who ended up going to multiple pro bowls proves that it's way too early to know whether or not Skelton can be a starter.

 

[desertdawg]

Guys who have 80+ attempts are close enough to Skelton to be relevant. Second of all, the numbers were not all rookie numbers, but all taken from the seasons they actually played. I don't care if a guy waited until his 4th season to make his first start. That is still his first start. The point is, 4 starts is hardly enough a sample size. Yes I know there are just as many or more failures. The point is it is way to early to draw a conclusion. I agree we should have an alternate plan, but you act as if there is no chance Skelton will ever develop into a good QB.

My name is Shawn and I love the bolded part that says it all. I hope the alternate plan comes with our first round pick.

 

[wa52lz]

That was fun. It's nice when you check your own facts to make sure they line up with your critique. I'm surprised you didn't float Tom Brady's name in there, since he was 1 for 3 his rookie year and managed to double that completion percentage his second season.

It is rational. QBs who succeed in the NFL don't start off completing less than 50% of their passes in their first four starts. .

Looking just at modern era hall of fame QB's whose careers started after 1957, in there first 4 NFL starts:
Namath 44.12 (50.1 career)
Elway 46.57 (56.9 career)
Fouts 38.74 (58.8)
Bradshaw 39.76 (51.9)
Tarkenton 49.32 (57)
Moon (after 6yrs in the CFL) 48.09 (58.4)
Aikman 43.52 (61.5)

All but 2 improved there comp% 10%+ by then end of their career with an average of 14.63%.

From the game logs on profootballreference.com