Updated: May 21, 2005
Scouting Report: Spurs-Suns
ESPN Insider Brian James will provide scouting reports throughout the NBA playoffs.
Both Phoenix and San Antonio come off emotional Round 2 victories and both could have used more rest to recover from the bumps, bruises, sprains, and even displaced orbital bones they encountered. Both are led by leaders who have the team-first mentality, and show positive reinforcement to everyone around them.
You must have your stars become superstars at this time of the year and MVP Steve Nash and Tim Duncan both hit the big shots in Game 6 of their respective series. This will be a classic matchup not only with great individual players with enormous skills, but two teams who execute their different philosophies to the fullest.
Phoenix has the league's best offense in terms of points scored and Dallas was just hoping to keep it below the 110 points that it averaged during the regular season. The Suns are also the top team in assists, three-point FG percentage, and defensive rebounding to start their track-meet break to the offensive end.
San Antonio counters with the NBA's premier defense in points allowed and third-best defensive FG percentage. They were excellent in closing out against Seattle. The Sonics depended all season on making three's as a staple of their offense and the Spurs took them out of the penetrate and pitch game to the weak side.
The injuries to Vladimir Radmanovic and Rashard Lewis were certainly a factor, but I would have bet my house that the Sonics would have more three's than the Spurs in a six-game series. San Antonio will undoubtedly clog the lane with Duncan and Nazr Mohammed more than Dallas was able to do.
So can Phoenix keep making perimeter shots with the status of Joe Johnson still in doubt? They will have to, since the Spurs intend on shutting down many of the Suns' points in the paint.
So this will be a classic matchup with San Antonio playing great team defense and Phoenix playing great team offense. These two teams played each other three times, with San Antonio winning twice. The game at Phoenix on Jan. 22 was the most exciting game I watched on television all season. Manu Ginobili totaled 48 points.
Phoenix is hoping to ride the momentum of Nash's three straight incredible games, along with Amare Stoudemire's domination in the paint. They need to quicken the pace of the game, which can cause San Antonio to have high turnover games.
Much rests with Duncan's tender ankle. He has had success with Stoudemire inside, using his size and experience to his advantage. Let's take a look at the individual matchups that will decide this exciting Western Conference final:
Point guard
Phoenix: Nash left Dallas when Mavericks owner Mark Cuban wouldn't match the six-year, $65.6 million deal Phoenix offered. Nash truly enjoyed an MVP season, leading the league in assists with 11.5 per game, nearly two more than anyone else. He is the leader of this team and the other players feed off him. If a teammate is open, Nash will find him, even if he is dribbling the ball up the court at breakneck speed. The Suns space the floor for him and he gets the ball into the lane, creating opportunities for himself, dump-offs to Stoudemire or penetration-and-pitches to great shooters. If you force him to shoot, he makes at least 50 percent from the field and 90 percent from the line. The screen-and-roll or two-man game with Stoudemire at the elbow area is almost unguardable.
San Antonio: Tony Parker will be determined as ever to do a better job defensively on Nash than Jason Terry was able to do. But on the other end, San Antonio has had success this season making Nash fight through as many screens as possible defending Parker as well. The Spurs will run screen-roll from every possible angle to wear down Nash and create opportunities for Parker on the offensive end.
Parker must play better in this series than he did vs. Seattle, and I'm sure he will. He needs to knock down the shots off screen roll and on the kick outs from the post on Duncan's double teams. If Parker can do this, Phoenix can't concentrate solely on Duncan and Ginobili. Parker and Nash are two of the quickest point guards in the NBA who can play at the highest level.
Edge: San Antonio
Off guard
Phoenix: Indications are Joe Johnson is doubtful for Game 1, but could give it a go in Game 2. Phoenix definitely misses his 3-point shooting as Johnson is the playoff leader at 57 percent. Plus, he is the backup point guard when Nash rests. Jim Jackson brings a wealth of experience at this spot, if Johnson can't go. Twice against Dallas, Jackson had tremendous fourth quarters to help win games for the Suns. In Game 5 against the Mavs, Jackson hit 7 of 8 shots, scoring 15 of his 21 points in the fourth. Jackson can play the 2, 3, or even small 4 and will do so in this series, if need be. He struggles at times with his passing and ball-handling, but Dallas didn't expose this too much.
San Antonio: Bruce Bowen was getting into constant verbal sparring matches with Ray Allen, thanks to his no-nonsense, in-your-face defense in Round 2. Bowen will probably go back and forth in this series between Quentin Richardson, Johnson and Jackson, depending on who is hot at the time. Bowen hasn't looked to score as much in these playoffs, but is very capable of hitting the three from the corners, where he runs to in the Spurs' early offense. This guy knows how to play and is only concerned with one thing -- winning.
Edge: Phoenix, even though Bowen is the best defensively at his position.
Small forward
Phoenix: Richardson must find his jump shot again in a hurry. Since Johnson's injury, Richardson possibly has put too much pressure on himself to contribute in his first-ever postseason. When he is on, he can score in bunches in a hurry. He will have the task of containing Ginobili if Jackson doesn't start on him. He is athletic enough to help deny Ginobili the ball out on the wing. If Jackson starts on Ginobili, then Richardson will have to do a better job of rotating off Bowen toward the weak side to stop Ginobili's drives to the basket.
San Antonio: Ginobili is always the wild card for San Antonio. He is capable of getting the Spurs anything from 15 to 50 depending on what is given to him. If Ginobili makes a few long jumpers early, then look out. When defenders close out on him, he will simply put his head down and drive aggressively to the hole. Denver and Seattle both had a hard time keeping him out of the lane, as did Phoenix in the regular season.
Gregg Popovich brought Ginobili off the bench for eight consecutive games, so it will be interesting to see his role in this series. Regardless, he will have the ball in his hands to make the plays for himself or to feed Duncan when the game is on the line. He isn't 100 percent healthy because he is always banging bodies, but you would never know it by the way he plays.
Edge: San Antonio
Power forward
Phoenix: This is my key individual matchup. Shawn Marion is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He has had just a tremendous season playing as an undersized power forward. He and Nash simply took over Game 6 down the stretch in Dallas, with Marion hitting big shots from the perimeter or slipping the screen roll as Nash fed him perfectly cutting into the lane for a mid-range floater. Marion loves to drive left and San Antonio must be aware of this. His 11.4 rebounding average and ability to create havoc defensively proves his athletic ability. The 38 points and 16 rebounds in Game 6 are playoff career bests. No doubt he will guard Duncan to start, but when Popovich subs for Mohammed, Marion will switch off to a smaller player.
San Antonio: Duncan was back to being 100 percent healthy before he tweaked his left ankle early in the fourth quarter of Game 6 on Thursday. The status of his ankle will be a huge question? Even though he didn't always shoot well in the last series, you know that he can make shots when the game is on the line. In addition, a poor first half never hinders him in the second half.
There isn't anything Duncan can't do on the basketball court, except make a high percentage of his FTs. He made most of them, however, against Seattle. He may be just too big and strong for Marion to handle inside. More than likely, Phoenix will double Duncan and then scramble and rotate out of the double teams.
Edge: Duncan, because of experience and size. But if his ankle problems persist, then Marion could make the difference for the Suns.
Center
Phoenix: Stoudemire just teased and abused the interior of Dallas' front line. With each successful outing, he couldn't wait for the start of the next game. Stoudemire will continue to set "drag" screens in transition, high or wing screen-rolls out of set plays, and roll hard to the basket. His isolations at the elbow areas will give the Spurs reason for concern as well. If you take away his explosive dunks, layups and FTs, you have a chance to beat Phoenix. He has great hands and can catch almost any pass. Only twice in Round 2 did Stoudemire not finish with at least 30 points and 10 rebounds. He will need to come close to these numbers again.
San Antonio: Mohammed has done an excellent job as the newest member of the starting five. Mohammed hurt Seattle by punching into the lane, rolling hard after screens and knowing where the openings exist while the defense concentrates on Duncan. His length and overall size no doubt will bother Phoenix. But will he be able to stop the quick drives by Stoudamire?
Edge: San Antonio.
Bench
Phoenix: The Suns only go 7 or 8 deep in the rotation. Only Leandro Barbosa, Steven Hunter and Walter McCarty have been given opportunities to spell the starters a few minutes. With Jackson now in a starting roll, the three players mentioned above were inconsistent at best in Round 2. Dallas attacked Barbosa at every opportunity in the post and pressured him up the floor. Hunter had a tough time slowing himself down and let the game come to him. McCarty just couldn't make a shot to keep the defense honest in Game 6.
San Antonio: San Antonio's bench will rival any in terms of quality and depth. The mark of a good bench is when one or two are in your finishing lineup. Both Brent Barry and Robert Horry have a good chance to be on the floor in crunch time. Beno Udrih, former starter Rasho Nesterovic, Devin Brown, Glenn Robinson, and Tony Massenburg round out an impressive roster.
Realistically, Popovich can call on any of them and have them produce big results in the minutes given. Barry, Horry and Robinson could be the "X" factors with the threat to stretch the defense and get hot from outside. Barry is due to break out.
Edge: San Antonio in a landslide.
Coaching
Phoenix: Coach Mike D'Antoni won the Coach of the Year award simply because he molded his philosophy to the team's talent and strengths. He didn't pound into them a system that wouldn't have a chance to succeed. Steve Nash gets a tremendous amount of credit for the 33-game improvement, but D'Antoni pushed all the right buttons in Round 2 when this series could have been in doubt. Phoenix is the first team since 1989 to get into the Western Conference Finals after not qualifying for the playoffs the year before. A lot of the credit goes to D'Antoni. He rests his starters just enough to get them through and gives plenty of encouragement in the huddles.
San Antonio: No one does a better job of getting a game plan across to his players and having them believes in that formula of success than Spurs coach Gregg Popovich. Popovich made the right adjustments of reinserting Ginobili into the starting lineup midway through Round 2. Mohammed has played well as a starter and the right playcalls at the right time continue to win games. Popovich has three stars and surrounded them with tremendous role players. Every coach is envious of his program.
Edge: Even.
Prediction
I feel the defense of San Antonio and the depth of its roster will eventually wear down Phoenix, especially if Johnson is not able to contribute heavily as he returns. Because of the contrast in styles, there will be many spurts and momentum swings. In the end, Phoenix migh not have enough stamina to win four games. Health will also be a major factor. I'm picking San Antonio in six games, but having to win a Game 7 in Phoenix isn't a stretch either.
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Scouting Report: Spurs-Suns
ESPN Insider Brian James will provide scouting reports throughout the NBA playoffs.
Both Phoenix and San Antonio come off emotional Round 2 victories and both could have used more rest to recover from the bumps, bruises, sprains, and even displaced orbital bones they encountered. Both are led by leaders who have the team-first mentality, and show positive reinforcement to everyone around them.
You must have your stars become superstars at this time of the year and MVP Steve Nash and Tim Duncan both hit the big shots in Game 6 of their respective series. This will be a classic matchup not only with great individual players with enormous skills, but two teams who execute their different philosophies to the fullest.
Phoenix has the league's best offense in terms of points scored and Dallas was just hoping to keep it below the 110 points that it averaged during the regular season. The Suns are also the top team in assists, three-point FG percentage, and defensive rebounding to start their track-meet break to the offensive end.
San Antonio counters with the NBA's premier defense in points allowed and third-best defensive FG percentage. They were excellent in closing out against Seattle. The Sonics depended all season on making three's as a staple of their offense and the Spurs took them out of the penetrate and pitch game to the weak side.
The injuries to Vladimir Radmanovic and Rashard Lewis were certainly a factor, but I would have bet my house that the Sonics would have more three's than the Spurs in a six-game series. San Antonio will undoubtedly clog the lane with Duncan and Nazr Mohammed more than Dallas was able to do.
So can Phoenix keep making perimeter shots with the status of Joe Johnson still in doubt? They will have to, since the Spurs intend on shutting down many of the Suns' points in the paint.
So this will be a classic matchup with San Antonio playing great team defense and Phoenix playing great team offense. These two teams played each other three times, with San Antonio winning twice. The game at Phoenix on Jan. 22 was the most exciting game I watched on television all season. Manu Ginobili totaled 48 points.
Phoenix is hoping to ride the momentum of Nash's three straight incredible games, along with Amare Stoudemire's domination in the paint. They need to quicken the pace of the game, which can cause San Antonio to have high turnover games.
Much rests with Duncan's tender ankle. He has had success with Stoudemire inside, using his size and experience to his advantage. Let's take a look at the individual matchups that will decide this exciting Western Conference final:
Point guard
Phoenix: Nash left Dallas when Mavericks owner Mark Cuban wouldn't match the six-year, $65.6 million deal Phoenix offered. Nash truly enjoyed an MVP season, leading the league in assists with 11.5 per game, nearly two more than anyone else. He is the leader of this team and the other players feed off him. If a teammate is open, Nash will find him, even if he is dribbling the ball up the court at breakneck speed. The Suns space the floor for him and he gets the ball into the lane, creating opportunities for himself, dump-offs to Stoudemire or penetration-and-pitches to great shooters. If you force him to shoot, he makes at least 50 percent from the field and 90 percent from the line. The screen-and-roll or two-man game with Stoudemire at the elbow area is almost unguardable.
San Antonio: Tony Parker will be determined as ever to do a better job defensively on Nash than Jason Terry was able to do. But on the other end, San Antonio has had success this season making Nash fight through as many screens as possible defending Parker as well. The Spurs will run screen-roll from every possible angle to wear down Nash and create opportunities for Parker on the offensive end.
Parker must play better in this series than he did vs. Seattle, and I'm sure he will. He needs to knock down the shots off screen roll and on the kick outs from the post on Duncan's double teams. If Parker can do this, Phoenix can't concentrate solely on Duncan and Ginobili. Parker and Nash are two of the quickest point guards in the NBA who can play at the highest level.
Edge: San Antonio
Off guard
Phoenix: Indications are Joe Johnson is doubtful for Game 1, but could give it a go in Game 2. Phoenix definitely misses his 3-point shooting as Johnson is the playoff leader at 57 percent. Plus, he is the backup point guard when Nash rests. Jim Jackson brings a wealth of experience at this spot, if Johnson can't go. Twice against Dallas, Jackson had tremendous fourth quarters to help win games for the Suns. In Game 5 against the Mavs, Jackson hit 7 of 8 shots, scoring 15 of his 21 points in the fourth. Jackson can play the 2, 3, or even small 4 and will do so in this series, if need be. He struggles at times with his passing and ball-handling, but Dallas didn't expose this too much.
San Antonio: Bruce Bowen was getting into constant verbal sparring matches with Ray Allen, thanks to his no-nonsense, in-your-face defense in Round 2. Bowen will probably go back and forth in this series between Quentin Richardson, Johnson and Jackson, depending on who is hot at the time. Bowen hasn't looked to score as much in these playoffs, but is very capable of hitting the three from the corners, where he runs to in the Spurs' early offense. This guy knows how to play and is only concerned with one thing -- winning.
Edge: Phoenix, even though Bowen is the best defensively at his position.
Small forward
Phoenix: Richardson must find his jump shot again in a hurry. Since Johnson's injury, Richardson possibly has put too much pressure on himself to contribute in his first-ever postseason. When he is on, he can score in bunches in a hurry. He will have the task of containing Ginobili if Jackson doesn't start on him. He is athletic enough to help deny Ginobili the ball out on the wing. If Jackson starts on Ginobili, then Richardson will have to do a better job of rotating off Bowen toward the weak side to stop Ginobili's drives to the basket.
San Antonio: Ginobili is always the wild card for San Antonio. He is capable of getting the Spurs anything from 15 to 50 depending on what is given to him. If Ginobili makes a few long jumpers early, then look out. When defenders close out on him, he will simply put his head down and drive aggressively to the hole. Denver and Seattle both had a hard time keeping him out of the lane, as did Phoenix in the regular season.
Gregg Popovich brought Ginobili off the bench for eight consecutive games, so it will be interesting to see his role in this series. Regardless, he will have the ball in his hands to make the plays for himself or to feed Duncan when the game is on the line. He isn't 100 percent healthy because he is always banging bodies, but you would never know it by the way he plays.
Edge: San Antonio
Power forward
Phoenix: This is my key individual matchup. Shawn Marion is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He has had just a tremendous season playing as an undersized power forward. He and Nash simply took over Game 6 down the stretch in Dallas, with Marion hitting big shots from the perimeter or slipping the screen roll as Nash fed him perfectly cutting into the lane for a mid-range floater. Marion loves to drive left and San Antonio must be aware of this. His 11.4 rebounding average and ability to create havoc defensively proves his athletic ability. The 38 points and 16 rebounds in Game 6 are playoff career bests. No doubt he will guard Duncan to start, but when Popovich subs for Mohammed, Marion will switch off to a smaller player.
San Antonio: Duncan was back to being 100 percent healthy before he tweaked his left ankle early in the fourth quarter of Game 6 on Thursday. The status of his ankle will be a huge question? Even though he didn't always shoot well in the last series, you know that he can make shots when the game is on the line. In addition, a poor first half never hinders him in the second half.
There isn't anything Duncan can't do on the basketball court, except make a high percentage of his FTs. He made most of them, however, against Seattle. He may be just too big and strong for Marion to handle inside. More than likely, Phoenix will double Duncan and then scramble and rotate out of the double teams.
Edge: Duncan, because of experience and size. But if his ankle problems persist, then Marion could make the difference for the Suns.
Center
Phoenix: Stoudemire just teased and abused the interior of Dallas' front line. With each successful outing, he couldn't wait for the start of the next game. Stoudemire will continue to set "drag" screens in transition, high or wing screen-rolls out of set plays, and roll hard to the basket. His isolations at the elbow areas will give the Spurs reason for concern as well. If you take away his explosive dunks, layups and FTs, you have a chance to beat Phoenix. He has great hands and can catch almost any pass. Only twice in Round 2 did Stoudemire not finish with at least 30 points and 10 rebounds. He will need to come close to these numbers again.
San Antonio: Mohammed has done an excellent job as the newest member of the starting five. Mohammed hurt Seattle by punching into the lane, rolling hard after screens and knowing where the openings exist while the defense concentrates on Duncan. His length and overall size no doubt will bother Phoenix. But will he be able to stop the quick drives by Stoudamire?
Edge: San Antonio.
Bench
Phoenix: The Suns only go 7 or 8 deep in the rotation. Only Leandro Barbosa, Steven Hunter and Walter McCarty have been given opportunities to spell the starters a few minutes. With Jackson now in a starting roll, the three players mentioned above were inconsistent at best in Round 2. Dallas attacked Barbosa at every opportunity in the post and pressured him up the floor. Hunter had a tough time slowing himself down and let the game come to him. McCarty just couldn't make a shot to keep the defense honest in Game 6.
San Antonio: San Antonio's bench will rival any in terms of quality and depth. The mark of a good bench is when one or two are in your finishing lineup. Both Brent Barry and Robert Horry have a good chance to be on the floor in crunch time. Beno Udrih, former starter Rasho Nesterovic, Devin Brown, Glenn Robinson, and Tony Massenburg round out an impressive roster.
Realistically, Popovich can call on any of them and have them produce big results in the minutes given. Barry, Horry and Robinson could be the "X" factors with the threat to stretch the defense and get hot from outside. Barry is due to break out.
Edge: San Antonio in a landslide.
Coaching
Phoenix: Coach Mike D'Antoni won the Coach of the Year award simply because he molded his philosophy to the team's talent and strengths. He didn't pound into them a system that wouldn't have a chance to succeed. Steve Nash gets a tremendous amount of credit for the 33-game improvement, but D'Antoni pushed all the right buttons in Round 2 when this series could have been in doubt. Phoenix is the first team since 1989 to get into the Western Conference Finals after not qualifying for the playoffs the year before. A lot of the credit goes to D'Antoni. He rests his starters just enough to get them through and gives plenty of encouragement in the huddles.
San Antonio: No one does a better job of getting a game plan across to his players and having them believes in that formula of success than Spurs coach Gregg Popovich. Popovich made the right adjustments of reinserting Ginobili into the starting lineup midway through Round 2. Mohammed has played well as a starter and the right playcalls at the right time continue to win games. Popovich has three stars and surrounded them with tremendous role players. Every coach is envious of his program.
Edge: Even.
Prediction
I feel the defense of San Antonio and the depth of its roster will eventually wear down Phoenix, especially if Johnson is not able to contribute heavily as he returns. Because of the contrast in styles, there will be many spurts and momentum swings. In the end, Phoenix migh not have enough stamina to win four games. Health will also be a major factor. I'm picking San Antonio in six games, but having to win a Game 7 in Phoenix isn't a stretch either.
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