6/29/04 sunsfn report

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Tuesday, June 29, 2004

By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider


Mark Cuban has committed $84 million in salary to a team that, like a good Internet company, looks great on paper but upon closer scrutiny appears a lot murkier.

The Big Three in Dallas have, over the past year, ballooned to the Big Ten. After Dirk Nowitzki, the rest of the team becomes a blur. Michael Finley and Steve Nash are the heart, but new additions Antoine Walker, Jerry Stackhouse, Josh Howard, Marquis Daniels and new rookies Devin Harris and Pavel Podkolzine all want their piece too.
Cuban might have assembled the best and most eclectic roster money can buy in the NBA but, when basketball gets serious in April and May, the Mavericks suddenly look like the Cavaliers. The issue is more than just chemistry. It's the fact the Mavs live and die by the jump shot on offense, then turn around and get destroyed in the paint on defense.
Ideally, it should be the other way around. If you're going to get beat on defense, make the jump shooters do it to you. If you want a reliable offense, give someone 20 touches a night in the paint.
That's where Shaquille O'Neal comes in. Everyone on the planet knows by now that Shaq wants a trade. You also know by now that Dallas is one of the few teams in the NBA with enough talent to make a deal for Shaq without having to trade its entire roster.
The Lakers are willing to talk, if the Mavs give up their best 7-foot jump shooter in return. The Mavs claim they're willing to talk too, but Cuban insists (though some in the Mavs' front office disagree) Nowitzki is untouchable.
If Nowitzki is untouchable, Shaq won't be the only big guy off-limits to the Mavs this summer. In the team's desperate attempt to add some size and some heart in the paint, the Mavs soon will come to realize there isn't a team in the league willing to trade a dominant NBA center for Michael Finley, Steve Nash, Antoine Walker or any of the other players the Mavs will dangle in their direction.
If Cuban maintains his stance, the Mavs will be watching re-runs come April. Jump shooters win in the winter. Defense and gritty post play win in the spring.
Can the Mavericks plug their hole in the middle and still keep their team intact? Here's a look at what to expect as Insider continues its summer blueprint series.

Mavericks Summer Blueprint

DRAFT: The Mavs had, by all accounts, a really great draft. They parlayed Antawn Jamison, a nice but unnecessary role player for them last season, into Devin Harris (Insider's second-ranked point guard in the draft), Jerry Stackhouse and Christian Laettner. Harris was the prize for a number of reasons. He allows the team to play around with Nash this summer without being held hostage to his demands. Harris can play right now, if the Mavs need him to, and Nash and his agent, Bill Duffy, know it.
Grabbing Podkolzine in a trade with the Jazz also was a steal. The Mavs gave up a pick that likely will be much lower than the No. 21 at which they got Pavel. Donnie Nelson loves him, and the Mavs are one of the few teams that will spend the money and time to develop him the right way. We may not hear from him again for another two years, but when we do, he has the potential to be dominant.

FREE AGENCY: The Mavs have two big free agents to worry about. Nash is unrestricted this year, and his backup at the point, Marquis Daniels, is restricted.
Both players could choose to leave Big D this summer. It has been considered a foregone conclusion for months that Nash would return to the Mavs, but the events over the past few weeks have put that in serious doubt. The Mavs are in the hunt for Shaq, and reportedly are offering Nash as bait in a sign-and-trade.

Steve Nash wants a lucrative long-term deal, but it doesn't look like he'll get it in Dallas.
The team also raised eyebrows last Thursday when it used the No. 5 pick on Harris. The Mavs claim they brought in Harris to be Nash's backup. However, Harris was considered the most NBA-ready point guard in the draft. If Nash signs the lucrative long-term deal he wants, will they really just stash Harris away?
More likely, the team is sending a signal to Nash -- either agree to a sign-and-trade with the Lakers, agree to a smaller deal to stay in Dallas or go find your dough somewhere else.
Still, Nash has leverage and should have no problem finding suitors. The Suns, Jazz and Clippers all are in the market for a veteran point guard. This could lead to an interesting game of chicken. If the Mavs don't offer Nash enough, he'll walk. If they offer him too much, they won't have the flexibility to trade him down the road. Losing Nash for nothing is the worst-case scenario, but being stuck with an aging, injury-prone point guard who can't produce for the next six years at max-type dollars isn't appealing, either.
Daniels poses even more problems. Because he has only one year of service, the Mavs' restricted free-agent rights to him are limited. Because they are over the cap, the most the Mavericks can pay Daniels is the full mid-level exception (a starting salary of around $5 million next year).
Daniels, conceivably, could earn more. He started the last 15 games of the season and averaged an impressive 17.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg and 4.5 apg on 52 percent shooting. Over his last eight games, he upped that total to 20 ppg, 6.3 rpg and 5.1 apg. Those are LeBron-like numbers.
For a team looking for a young guard with the ability to play some point, Daniels may be the perfect answer. However, his performance does come with a few caveats. Almost everyone believes that had Daniels been playing for any other team, his numbers wouldn't have been as impressive.
Nellie is an innovator, and it was clear that in his free-wheeling offense, Daniels could dominate. If he goes somewhere with a more conservative coach, will he be able to put up the same type of numbers?
Making matters worse for Dallas is the fact it has no real salary exceptions for Daniels. He doesn't have any type of Bird Rights with the team, meaning the Mavs will have to use their own mid-level exception to re-sign him.
That could pose a problem. The Mavs had been hoping to use their mid-level to target a big man. Erick Dampier, Mark Blount, Vlade Divac and Adonal Foyle are big men who might be willing to sign with Dallas for the mid-level exception. If the Mavs can't land Shaq, someone like Dampier would be a decent replacement.
Still, Nelson claims they want Daniels back, even if it costs them their exception.
"That hasn't changed," Nelson told the Dallas Morning News. "We only have one [$5-million] exception, and we have to choose wisely how to use that. Our priority is for them to be back."

TRADES: The Mavs are one of the most active teams in the NBA when it comes to trades, and there's no reason to believe they'll be slowing down anytime soon.
They talked to numerous teams on draft night in an effort to move Stackhouse and the No. 5 pick. Conventional wisdom is they are trying to acquire more assets to trade for Shaq. However, the Lakers continue to make it clear that without Dirk, there is no deal.
That makes the asset talk a bit silly. If Dirk's in the picture, including Antoine Walker makes the deal work under the cap and is a deal the Lakers would have to seriously consider.


Dampier

At this point, Shaq can't be the only player the team is focusing on. The Mavs probably could offer the Warriors a sweet sign-and-trade deal for Dampier, the next-best center available after Shaq. Like Shaq, Dampier has similar motivation and conditioning issues, but at a third the price. You've got to believe a re-signed Dampier and Clifford Robinson for Walker and the rights to Harris or Podkolzine would entice the Warriors.
The Mavs also will be exploring ways to get Stackhouse out of town. Stack has a reputation as a locker-room cancer, and he's not going to be happy taking a back seat to all of Dallas' shooters. While Stack maintains that at this point in his career he wants to win and will, like Jamison last year, do what it takes to fit in, he's still a bad fit in Dallas. One deal to watch: The Mavs were talking to the Knicks before the draft about trading Stackhouse for Kurt Thomas. If Dallas can pull that off, it's a home run.
If the Mavs move Stackhouse or Laettner, they want in return rugged role players who play defense. There will be a major house-cleaning if the Mavs play the same horrendous defense they played last season.

COACHING: Don Nelson's tenure in Dallas is on life support, and everyone knows it. There was intense speculation after the season that Nellie was gone. Cuban decided not to make a move, in part because there wasn't a clear successor. Ironically, the crazy team Nelson has built can only be coached by an unorthodox guy like Nelson.
If the team lands Shaq, however, don't be surprised to see Pat Riley enter the picture. Cuban claims the two have never discussed the Mavs' coaching job, but it's pretty clear Riley wants back in, and any team with Shaq would be his first choice.
If the trade isn't made, the key again this year will be to figure out chemistry and better defensive schemes. Having better defensive players obviously would help that along, and the Mavs eventually might acquire one or two this summer.
FRONT OFFICE: Donnie Nelson Jr. calls the shots, but we all know how active Cuban is. He has spent an enormous amount of money on this team. If he re-signs Nash to a big deal, he'll be the fifth guy they have making near max dollars.
At some point, just being in the playoffs isn't going to be enough. Every owner (with the possible exception of Donald Sterling) is in this for one thing -- a championship. Protecting young assets is important, but Dirk isn't going to deliver a championship without some serious help in the middle. Shaq can. It might only be for two years, but anymore, that's enough to last a decade.
Cuban now faces the most difficult decision since he owned the team. Do you give up a 20-and-10 guy for the next decade for two-year window of winning the NBA title? In Dirk's case, I think the answer is yes. Over the course of the next few weeks, I expect the Mavs to come to the same conclusion.

:)
 

coloradosun

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Cuban needs Shaq more than anyone in the league, he is in the same division as Yao and Duncan. Nowitzki hasn't been the answer.
 

George O'Brien

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If Dirk played defense it would be different, but I think Dirk, Walker, and Delk would work, sort of. Walker has only one more year on his contract, so they could start rebuilding a year early around Dirk and Kobe.
 

F-Dog

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IMO Cuban would be crazy to trade Dirk for Shaq.

Dirk is the only player on that team that is a difference-maker--take away Dirk and put in Shaq, and the Mavericks aren't that much better than before (they fail to contend for championships in new and interesting ways, I'll grant you).

Dirk played better defense in this year's playoffs than I've seen him play before. In fact, he was the Mavericks' best defender at times, which is like saying that Kobe was the Lakers' best defender in the Finals, but it does stand as an improvement.


When you consider that Shaq has two or three years, tops, while Dirk is still at the point in his career where he's improving significantly every year...Shaq for Dirk is a deal that would start to stink pretty quick.
 

George O'Brien

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F-Dog said:
IMO Cuban would be crazy to trade Dirk for Shaq.

Dirk is the only player on that team that is a difference-maker--take away Dirk and put in Shaq, and the Mavericks aren't that much better than before (they fail to contend for championships in new and interesting ways, I'll grant you).

Dirk played better defense in this year's playoffs than I've seen him play before. In fact, he was the Mavericks' best defender at times, which is like saying that Kobe was the Lakers' best defender in the Finals, but it does stand as an improvement.


When you consider that Shaq has two or three years, tops, while Dirk is still at the point in his career where he's improving significantly every year...Shaq for Dirk is a deal that would start to stink pretty quick.

This is strictly "the future is now" type decision. Is there any way the Mavs get to the finals with their current team? Even after trading Dirk and Walker, there is enough talent on this team to be a serious contender for two years. After that?
 

F-Dog

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George O'Brien said:
This is strictly "the future is now" type decision. Is there any way the Mavs get to the finals with their current team? Even after trading Dirk and Walker, there is enough talent on this team to be a serious contender for two years. After that?

I don't see enough talent to win a championship, even with Shaq (but without Dirk). In fact, if they can get Dampier while holding onto their core three, that team would be better next season than if they traded Dirk for Shaq.

The Mavericks would need another legit go-to guy if they traded Dirk, and they don't have the cap room or the pieces to go out and get one.
 

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