Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
On Christmas Eve the Cards received a present so big that I actually lost sleep thinking about it. With 3 more likely losses looming Ossenfort has pulled off a maneuver that’s the envy of every GM. Tanking is punished in the NFL. Added to that the unpredictability (any given Sunday) and the intense competitiveness of the players and coaches have typically doomed that strategy to failure. This time the Holy Grail of team management is within reach. There are no sure things. The Cards lost a chance to draft Eli Manning several years ago with a final game upset and while Manning wasn’t on the same level as his brother, he went on to win 2 Super Bowls, while the Cards floundered.
That said, if the Cards lose the next 3 games the draft ramifications are nearly surreal. The Cards could quickly have one of those dominant personnel opportunities that seldom occur in the NFL. The Cards would have the draft’s second pick. Consider the scenarios.
#1 The Bears go first and select Harrison. I know many, including myself, were hoping the Cards would get him and they still might. The Cards sitting second would have Williams fall in their lap. Despite a few articles to the contrary he is easily the dominant QB prospect in the draft. Forget about Maye for a moment. The consensus is USC coach Lincoln Riley has not done a good job with Williams. Many feel Riley squandered Williams’ talent. Williams remains extremely valuable. He is a true multi-threat QB. I firmly believe the Cards are staying with Murray. So they will trade Williams. Let me assure you every QB hungry team covets Williams. The suitors are numerous. Right now Washington sits third based on strength of schedule, though it’s so close the Pats could pass them. The intense QB competition could well mean the Cards could secure Washington’s third pick plus maybe a 2025 first and second plus a 2024 second. That’s an overpay and will only happen if Washington doesn’t want Maye or Daniels otherwise they sit and wait. Williams is placed well above both of them but the price is high. If Washington bites, the Cards would then sit third, but they still don’t need a QB. Behind them is New England, desperate for a QB. The Cards would trade again, securing a return likely identical to the Washington return.
One thing the Cards would have to consider is how many players from one draft could be assimilated in one year. Of course the simple solution would be to use the seconds to secure a third, round one pick. The maneuvering continues. The Cards now sit fourth. This is where the rubber hits the road. The Cards could take one of the OTs. Fashanu is the consensus choice. However, there are still teams desperate for a QB and Daniels is still on the board or maybe Maye if New England chose before Washington, as it’s rumored Washington is concerned about taking another NC QB. There are still a stack of teams desperate for a QB. The Cards could trade with Atlanta or Las Vegas. Again securing their pick along with a 2025 first and a 2024 second plus other picks. Now the Cards would have an unprecedented (I believe) four first round picks in 2025. If they make this drop they could use one of the acquired second round picks as an overpay to move back up to get their OT. This would be the optimum possible result.
#2
Chicago takes Williams. The Cards start down the line trading with Washington and New England. The Cards end up fifth. They would then likely not make another trade, but rather stay put and take Harrison. Again they could use 2 or 3 of their seconds to grab a tackle. They still have the Texas pick. They’ve also would have three 2025 firsts.
#3
It’s possible Chicago trades the first pick to New England or Washington. This would be the worst scenario for the Cards. The Cards could take Harrison, but with two top QBs on the board, I think they trade. That lets the Bears grab Harrison. The Cards are now in position to make the other trade. They would still end up getting two additional 2025 firsts plus a handful of other picks. They could use picks to come back up and get that tackle, a WR and an Edge, as their round one haul. They would have fewer but more impactful players to integrate.
I hope you follow all that. I don’t think I got lost going through the maze. I checked it several times. At the very least it’s very exciting and if this was Monti’s strategy, the Cards have a brilliant GM.
That said, if the Cards lose the next 3 games the draft ramifications are nearly surreal. The Cards could quickly have one of those dominant personnel opportunities that seldom occur in the NFL. The Cards would have the draft’s second pick. Consider the scenarios.
#1 The Bears go first and select Harrison. I know many, including myself, were hoping the Cards would get him and they still might. The Cards sitting second would have Williams fall in their lap. Despite a few articles to the contrary he is easily the dominant QB prospect in the draft. Forget about Maye for a moment. The consensus is USC coach Lincoln Riley has not done a good job with Williams. Many feel Riley squandered Williams’ talent. Williams remains extremely valuable. He is a true multi-threat QB. I firmly believe the Cards are staying with Murray. So they will trade Williams. Let me assure you every QB hungry team covets Williams. The suitors are numerous. Right now Washington sits third based on strength of schedule, though it’s so close the Pats could pass them. The intense QB competition could well mean the Cards could secure Washington’s third pick plus maybe a 2025 first and second plus a 2024 second. That’s an overpay and will only happen if Washington doesn’t want Maye or Daniels otherwise they sit and wait. Williams is placed well above both of them but the price is high. If Washington bites, the Cards would then sit third, but they still don’t need a QB. Behind them is New England, desperate for a QB. The Cards would trade again, securing a return likely identical to the Washington return.
One thing the Cards would have to consider is how many players from one draft could be assimilated in one year. Of course the simple solution would be to use the seconds to secure a third, round one pick. The maneuvering continues. The Cards now sit fourth. This is where the rubber hits the road. The Cards could take one of the OTs. Fashanu is the consensus choice. However, there are still teams desperate for a QB and Daniels is still on the board or maybe Maye if New England chose before Washington, as it’s rumored Washington is concerned about taking another NC QB. There are still a stack of teams desperate for a QB. The Cards could trade with Atlanta or Las Vegas. Again securing their pick along with a 2025 first and a 2024 second plus other picks. Now the Cards would have an unprecedented (I believe) four first round picks in 2025. If they make this drop they could use one of the acquired second round picks as an overpay to move back up to get their OT. This would be the optimum possible result.
#2
Chicago takes Williams. The Cards start down the line trading with Washington and New England. The Cards end up fifth. They would then likely not make another trade, but rather stay put and take Harrison. Again they could use 2 or 3 of their seconds to grab a tackle. They still have the Texas pick. They’ve also would have three 2025 firsts.
#3
It’s possible Chicago trades the first pick to New England or Washington. This would be the worst scenario for the Cards. The Cards could take Harrison, but with two top QBs on the board, I think they trade. That lets the Bears grab Harrison. The Cards are now in position to make the other trade. They would still end up getting two additional 2025 firsts plus a handful of other picks. They could use picks to come back up and get that tackle, a WR and an Edge, as their round one haul. They would have fewer but more impactful players to integrate.
I hope you follow all that. I don’t think I got lost going through the maze. I checked it several times. At the very least it’s very exciting and if this was Monti’s strategy, the Cards have a brilliant GM.
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