A Few Thoughts on the Off-Season

[kerouac9]

Not really a burning issue or red flag for me. Brinkley is the vet who they signed to be the starter, no need to slap him in the face by having the rookie take what few snaps he could get.

Minter will be on this team in 2014, not so sure if Brinkley will because we could use the CAP relief if we re-sign Los.

But if Minter was a budding star, wouldn't the coaching staff be forced to put him on the field more than once in about 1000 defensive snaps over the course of the season? Wouldn't Minter's potential production override the ego maintainence of a player that may not be on the roster in 2014?

Really, whether or not a guy is second string or third string isn't a "burning issue or red flag" for me either. I never said it was. But what you don't acknowledge or deny is that Minter wasn't able to take reps from Brinkley over the course of the season. Is that something you accept without taking any conclusions from?

 

[Cardiac]

But if Minter was a budding star, wouldn't the coaching staff be forced to put him on the field more than once in about 1000 defensive snaps over the course of the season? Wouldn't Minter's potential production override the ego maintainence of a player that may not be on the roster in 2014?

Really, whether or not a guy is second string or third string isn't a "burning issue or red flag" for me either. I never said it was. But what you don't acknowledge or deny is that Minter wasn't able to take reps from Brinkley over the course of the season. Is that something you accept without taking any conclusions from?

I see your point and so yes one may wonder why Minter didn't see more playing time. I'm just not considering it a red flag at this point.

I would have liked to see Minter force his way into some more playing time because that would mean he is a future stud considering how well Los and DWash were playing.

 

[Krangodnzr]

But if Minter was a budding star, wouldn't the coaching staff be forced to put him on the field more than once in about 1000 defensive snaps over the course of the season? Wouldn't Minter's potential production override the ego maintainence of a player that may not be on the roster in 2014?

Really, whether or not a guy is second string or third string isn't a "burning issue or red flag" for me either. I never said it was. But what you don't acknowledge or deny is that Minter wasn't able to take reps from Brinkley over the course of the season. Is that something you accept without taking any conclusions from?

One thing about Minter not playing in regards to Brinkley, is that Brinkley was playing very well when Washington wasn't on the field considering his historical norms (average). Brinkley was playing the run at a high level and there was no reason for Minter to even step in for subpackages, since he offers a lot of the same qualities that Brinkley does (ie run stuffing, physical LB).

I'm personally not a huge fan of the Minter pick, but I think it's more related to losing the opportunity to draft someone who could've played meaningful snaps this year. From what we saw of Minter on special teams, I'm hopeful that he will be a big hitting, physical LB ala Navorro Bowman as another poster compared. I think your issue is the loss of opportunity of drafting a contributor as well from what I'm reading.

I think from a cap management perspective, we basically need to let Minter play next year with Brinkley as the insurance policy. Of course I'd love to keep Dansby, but when we could potentially bring a LT for the long haul by letting Dansby walk, I think we have to strongly pursue that avenue.

Pay Albert/Monroe franchise LT money and be done with it.

 

[Duckjake]

Agreed.

Not to mention none of these players (Acho/Okafor/Alexander) can do what Shaugnessey does.

They are not big enough, and don't play with the technique Shaugnessey does.

If Okafor had a full year, and puts on weight.....he would be the best candidate tho.

.

I think you guys are confused. Acho, Okafor and Lorenzo could easily replace Shaughnessey who is really a Defensive end. Acho had almost exactly the same numbers last year that Matt had this year. Shaunessey's value to Arizona is that he can move into the Dline rotation and spell Dockett and Campbell. Not start at OLB ahead of Acho or Okafor or Lorenzo.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm personally not a huge fan of the Minter pick, but I think it's more related to losing the opportunity to draft someone who could've played meaningful snaps this year. From what we saw of Minter on special teams, I'm hopeful that he will be a big hitting, physical LB ala Navorro Bowman as another poster compared. I think your issue is the loss of opportunity of drafting a contributor as well from what I'm reading.

That comparison is, IMO, pretty bogus. Bowman isn't a "big-hitting, physical LB"--that's Patrick Willis. Bowman is more physical than Daryl Washington or Karlos Dansby, but he's also the guy that the 49ers keep in the field in three- and two-linebacker sets; Willis tends to be the guy pulled to the sideline in passing situations.

Minter is--from all reports inside and outside the organization--a two-down thumper.

 

[Cheesebeef]

One of these days, people will understand Dansby's worth as a 3 down, playmaking beast....or not.

And for everyone saying "better to cut loose early rather then hang on too late", why aren't you beating the drum to cut Abraham? Dude's 3 or 4 years older then Dansby, kinda disappeared down the stretch and according to some logic is about to fall off a cliff.

Seriously...someone putting a combo platter of Shaugnessy/Cason over Dansby makes no sense to me.

Likely no honey next season, possible suspension for Washington and losing Dansby would destroy that D.

 

[Chopper0080]

Re: Dansby and Bell, these are going to be big decisions but for different reasons.

The issue with Dansby is cost, production and use. Dansby was paid 2.5 mil in 2013 and received 100% of the defensive snaps. Not only that, but Dansby was very productive in those snaps which increase his value. You could argue Paris Lenon totalled a number of stats but his actual production was minimal.

The obvious concern with re-signing Dansby is age. How many more years are you willing to pay for his 2013 production and how much will that production decrease over that time? IMO, Dansby has 2 to 3 more productive years playing next to a player like Washington. Washington helps mask Dansby's decrease in athleticism and puts him in more situations to be successful.

A pay increase will have to happen, but I personally would be comfortable letting the market dictate that increase. I believe 5mil per year would not be terrible, but I believe the market is one that could set his price below that. Roster's are flooded with ILB talent across the NFL and that is one of the reasons Dansby was released and had for the price he was. That isn't to say he isn't a player teams will pursue, but they will take a much harder look at his Dolphin's years than we will when it comes to paying him going forward. Also, I believe Dansby like his situation in Arizona. It won't get us a discount, but I do believe it will give us the chance to match any offer he receives.

Regarding Bell, you have a similar situation except the cost risk is down as is the actual production. Bell played 99% of defensive snaps in 2013 but was not a real productive player. He is good vs the run in the box, but struggled in coverage and limits the overall versatility of the scheme because of this. Teams we able to manipulate the Cardinals defense in ways to put him in situations where his coverage skills could be exploited. Bell can be had back pretty easily by the Cardinals mainly because he won't cost much. The question the Cardinals face is do you spend in FA to replace his production which will be an increase in cost and probably an increase in production or do you wait and fill the spot in the draft, lowering the cost, but also increasing the chance of a limited increase in production. That is my mind is the tougher question.

If it is me, I would sign a more talented S in FA. It will be a significant cost increase, but not as much as a CB, OLB, OT, QB DE would cost. Signing a FA S gives more flexability with our early draft picks and puts us in a better situation to draft a more premium position early.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

If it is me, I would sign a more talented S in FA. It will be a significant cost increase, but not as much as a CB, OLB, OT, QB DE would cost. Signing a FA S gives more flexability with our early draft picks and puts us in a better situation to draft a more premium position early.

Any S in mind? In lieu of re-signing Dansby and retaining Bell, would you rather roll with a FA S and Minter/Brinkley?

I'm not sold on one plan or the other, but interesting to think about.

 

[Shane]

Any S in mind? In lieu of re-signing Dansby and retaining Bell, would you rather roll with a FA S and Minter/Brinkley?

I'm not sold on one plan or the other, but interesting to think about.

Dante Whitner is a FA IIRC.

Strengthens us and weakens the 49ers.

 

[Jetstream Green]

One of these days, people will understand Dansby's worth as a 3 down, playmaking beast....or not.

And for everyone saying "better to cut loose early rather then hang on too late", why aren't you beating the drum to cut Abraham? Dude's 3 or 4 years older then Dansby, kinda disappeared down the stretch and according to some logic is about to fall off a cliff.

Seriously...someone putting a combo platter of Shaugnessy/Cason over Dansby makes no sense to me.

Likely no honey next season, possible suspension for Washington and losing Dansby would destroy that D.

THIS!

 

[Chopper0080]

Any S in mind? In lieu of re-signing Dansby and retaining Bell, would you rather roll with a FA S and Minter/Brinkley?

I'm not sold on one plan or the other, but interesting to think about.

If I had to target FA safeties, Whitner, TJ Ward, and Jarius Byrd are the easy first choices.

Personally, my offseason starts with getting a LT. Everything else is secondary though I try and retain as many free agents as possible to limit turnover.

My 2nd priority is at S but only because we have less options to play with. Bell and the draft is an option that I use as a fall back. He is cheap, limited production and will be available. The FA S's will cost more, but are longer term assets and should come with less risk. If Mathieu isn't recovering from an injury the situation might be different, but right now we have Rashad Johnson and Tony Jefferson, and I need to get that upgraded.

Then there is Dansby. Dansby is more important than the S position, but I would wait to let the market determine his cost so that means the decision will come after. I'm not sure you can get an increase in production at ILB for less than 5 mil per year, but I would be ok taking a step back if the market for his is higher than expected. My top price would be 5mil for 3 years, but I don't offer that up front. If Dansby walks for a big pay day we still have Minter, other FAs and the draft to fill a ILB spot. The time frame and # of other options available makes me more comfortable waiting in dealing with Dansby.

After that, we have depth issues at CB, DE and RB as well as starting issues at TE and OLB. Shaughnessy will come down to price. Under 2.5 mil per year and he stays, above that he probably gets his money from another team.

 

[Chopper0080]

One of these days, people will understand Dansby's worth as a 3 down, playmaking beast....or not.

And for everyone saying "better to cut loose early rather then hang on too late", why aren't you beating the drum to cut Abraham? Dude's 3 or 4 years older then Dansby, kinda disappeared down the stretch and according to some logic is about to fall off a cliff.

Seriously...someone putting a combo platter of Shaugnessy/Cason over Dansby makes no sense to me.

Likely no honey next season, possible suspension for Washington and losing Dansby would destroy that D.

Yes, and I agree that Dansby is an important player to try and keep but he also has the least leverage to work with. His age and the amount of talent in the NFL will keep his cost down for the most part. The question is how much are you willing to gamble on that. Are you willing to address other positions while the league sets the dollar amount for Dansby? Do you believe he will give you the chance to match? My answer to both of those is yes. Without any league insider info, I am pretty confident Dansby will cost less than 5 mil. However, I wouldn't feel bad if a team signed him for 6 mil because that is more than he is worth IMO.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Any S in mind? In lieu of re-signing Dansby and retaining Bell, would you rather roll with a FA S and Minter/Brinkley?

I'm not sold on one plan or the other, but interesting to think about.

At safety ?

Chris Clemons, he played for Bowles before, and I would believe would come at a good price. Whitner, Ward, etc., etc. are going to want big money.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I think you guys are confused. Acho, Okafor and Lorenzo could easily replace Shaughnessey who is really a Defensive end. Acho had almost exactly the same numbers last year that Matt had this year. Shaunessey's value to Arizona is that he can move into the Dline rotation and spell Dockett and Campbell. Not start at OLB ahead of Acho or Okafor or Lorenzo.

We will have to agree to disagree.

I don't see any of the three players you list playing with the power, and discipline Shaughnessey does. He was a special player for our defense if you ask me, and a key player in why the Cardinals were #1 against the run.

Sidenote: OLB, DE, even DT is so convoluted in this defense that I am not going to attempt to label them. We got guys that can play on the edge standing or with their hand in the dirt.

 

[WildBB]

Likely no honey next season, possible suspension for Washington and losing Dansby would destroy that D.

I haven't heard that at all. Likely (may) miss all of pre-season is about the most I've heard. He says sooner.

 

[WildBB]

We will have to agree to disagree.

I don't see any of the three players you list playing with the power, and discipline Shaughnessey does. He was a special player for our defense if you ask me, and a key player in why the Cardinals were #1 against the run.

Sidenote: OLB, DE, even DT is so convoluted in this defense that I am not going to attempt to label them. We got guys that can play on the edge standing or with their hand in the dirt.

Yes, Definitely. #1 doesn't happen by accident. Bring em all back. Go from there. Re-structure Fitz' deal. Salary cut College to half of what his deal would have netted or let him go completely. But don't mess with the chemistry on the D!! Dansby and Shaughnessey have passed their tests.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

At safety ?

Chris Clemons, he played for Bowles before, and I would believe would come at a good price. Whitner, Ward, etc., etc. are going to want big money.

yeah, I think I'd be happier retaining Dansby and getting a 2nd tier guy like Clemons than sticking with Brinkley/more expensive safety.

Bell was ok in certain situations, but was pretty bad against the pass, esp against TE's.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

The thing is its not as black and white as "I want Dansby back"

The reality is the follow up question. "At what cost and how many years?"

You willing to pay him 100 million guaranteed for 10 years Cheese?

Obviously not. But I think most would agree a reasonable 3 year deal makes a ton of sense. But just like last time with Los, the market will dictate that. Im sure as hell glad we didnt make him the highest paid ILB 4 years ago, and Im sure as hell glad we got him this year at 1 year 2 something million.

There can be a happy medium between those two options and im all for that.....

 

[Cheesebeef]

I haven't heard that at all. Likely (may) miss all of pre-season is about the most I've heard. He says sooner.

people said the same thing to me about Ryan Williams when I said that injury will take a much longer time to heal from based on what orthopods told me about it...same goes for Honey's ACL/LCL tear. I hope my father and best friend are wrong, but they weren't then and they usually know what they're talking about in re: knee injuries.

 

[Cheesebeef]

The thing is its not as black and white as "I want Dansby back"

The reality is the follow up question. "At what cost and how many years?"

You willing to pay him 100 million guaranteed for 10 years Cheese?

yes. that's what I want him back at. give me a freaking break with this crap.

4-5 million per year for three years seems fair to me. just don't see valuing role players over a defensive dynamo.

 

[football karma]

I haven't heard that at all. Likely (may) miss all of pre-season is about the most I've heard. He says sooner.

I think a realistic expectation is for Tyrann to start the season on the PUP list, and get activated 6-8 games into the season.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I think a realistic expectation is for Tyrann to start the season on the PUP list, and get activated 6-8 games into the season.

this is much more realistic...and to also not really expect him to be the same player until 2015 as that knee heals.

 

[MadCardDisease]

yes. that's what I want him back at. give me a freaking break with this crap.

4-5 million per year for three years seems fair to me. just don't see valuing role players over a defensive dynamo.

I'm sure that is what the Cardinals would love to sign him for. However I bet Dansby would think that is a slap in the face. Dansby believes that he is one of the best ILBs in the league. He is NOT going to take a "home town discount"! This is his last chance at a big payday which he missed out on last season. He took a discount last season to prove he still had the skills to play at an elite level and I think everyone will agree that he proved his point.

There is no way he signs a three year contract for $15 million before the FA period opens up. He would much rather test the market first. I'm guessing he will want at least top ten ILB money which starts at about $7M a year and has at least $9M guaranteed. There is no way the Cardinals could afford that kind of money with the cap space that they have to work with and all of the holes they have to fill.

IMO the Cardinals only option is to let Dansby test the market and hope the market for him is so dry that he will have to take a three year $15M deal after all of the other teams cap space has dried up. However I believe there are teams out there looking for a proven Veteran ILB to lead their defense. Maybe a team like the Vikings who are in desperate need of defensive help and have a bunch of cap space to work with.

 

[Duckjake]

I'm guessing he will want at least top ten ILB money

Holy Dead Presidents! The 49ers guaranteed Bowmann and Willis over $50 million combined!!!!!!!!!!! Does anyone really believe Dansy will demand that kind of money? Or that any team would pay him? Losing Dansby over $2 million would be repeating the mistakes that took a 2nd round playoff team to 5-11. TWICE.

 

[football karma]

this is much more realistic...and to also not really expect him to be the same player until 2015 as that knee heals.

Tyrann has the potential to be a really difference maker for this team over the next six or seven years. I see no reason to rush him back, and further, would want a conservative time frame for him to come back.

Bad luck happens -- players miss full seasons all the time. Take our lumps and look forward to a full 2015 for him.