A Theory on Why Keim Needs to Go

[kerouac9]

I believe that Steve Keim is an average to above-average General Manager in the NFL. I think we're more likely to get the next Jason Licht than we are the next Les Snead. But the last few years have been tough, and I've been trying to figure out what might have "happened" with Keim.

To me, the most likely explanation is that Keim is dealing with the long-term effects of Jonathan Cooper not working out and the inevitable correction that comes from all the "Keim Time Signings": short-term signings become expensive.

An alternative, and more attractive, explanation is that Keim and Arians had a uniquely symbiotic relationship. Kevin Clark of the Ringer made the point last offseason that Arians was a guy who was great at talking veteran players into "giving it one last go," and Keim was good at working with Arians to find guys who could still be productive. Keim may not be equipped with his own vision for how a team should be built, and why.

So he relied on Steve Wilks, who did have a vision for how and why to build a team: run the ball and stop the run. He acquired players designed around that vision, and Wilks and his staff both failed to maximize those players and the players weren't good enough.

That's why the Keim-to-the-Raiders rumor is so intriguing: Keim could complement Gruden the way he did Arians. I'm not sure that re-building most of the offense is going to fit with Keim's skill set.

Where should we look? I'm thinking look at the teams who successfully re-built on the fly: Philly and Kansas City immediately come to mind.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Weeks 1 through 15 is enough proof to your theory.

Not to mention most of Keim's successes are PURE luck.

 

[football karma]

funny thing about Les Snead

three years ago someone might look at his player acquisition record and conclude he was terrible

this isn't an argument for or against Keim -- its just that "replacement level" GMs seem to have good and bad streaks

I would also look into the NO front office -- Mickey Loomis seems to have made a bunch of really smart draft picks AND moving on from players. He had the guts to move on from both Jimmy Graham AND Brandin Cooks

 

[iLLmatiC]

I believe that Steve Keim is an average to above-average General Manager in the NFL. I think we're more likely to get the next Jason Licht than we are the next Les Snead. But the last few years have been tough, and I've been trying to figure out what might have "happened" with Keim.

To me, the most likely explanation is that Keim is dealing with the long-term effects of Jonathan Cooper not working out and the inevitable correction that comes from all the "Keim Time Signings": short-term signings become expensive.

An alternative, and more attractive, explanation is that Keim and Arians had a uniquely symbiotic relationship. Kevin Clark of the Ringer made the point last offseason that Arians was a guy who was great at talking veteran players into "giving it one last go," and Keim was good at working with Arians to find guys who could still be productive. Keim may not be equipped with his own vision for how a team should be built, and why.

So he relied on Steve Wilks, who did have a vision for how and why to build a team: run the ball and stop the run. He acquired players designed around that vision, and Wilks and his staff both failed to maximize those players and the players weren't good enough.

That's why the Keim-to-the-Raiders rumor is so intriguing: Keim could complement Gruden the way he did Arians. I'm not sure that re-building most of the offense is going to fit with Keim's skill set.

Where should we look? I'm thinking look at the teams who successfully re-built on the fly: Philly and Kansas City immediately come to mind.

Chicago's another story as well. We need to pick up a HC who's an offensive genius and a solid DC who has experience (Bowles).

 

[iLLmatiC]

Weeks 1 through 15 is enough proof to your theory.

Not to mention most of Keim's successes are PURE luck.

Nooo...Abdullah isn't there, I guess we'll take David Johnson ho-hum..

 

[oaken1]

I am still tossed up on keim.
One part of me thinks he intentionally sabotaged wilks because he wasnt his guy...stuff like..." Well we couldnt sign the best guy but here ya go i got ya the third best guy" or... " sorry man all the linebackers want premium money and we just cant commit that much of our assets to one guy this off season"
I think keim dont like wilks...didnt want him...and doesnt want him to succeed here.
Of course i could be wrong and just as full of poo as everyone else on here... But its a thought.

Keim pairing with Gruden is intriguing.
Keim
Gruden
Raiders
Vegas
Seems like a match made in football heaven. Gruden is fully capable of concisely defining exactly what types of players he wants.....and the raiders have a long history of coloring outside the lines at the draft.

 

[b8rtm8nn]

I think your alternative explanation is very appealing. I don't think any other coach would let a GM not work in finding a long term CB2 or ILB the way BA did, being comfortable enough to work year to year with castoffs.

I also think the offensive staffing this year reeks of GM direction, not Wilks (Wilks is likely incapable of staffing/rostering the offense anyways). But from McCoy/Bradford/Glennon, if really feels like Keim was pushing his 'vision' of what a best case offense would be with those choices. And having no one with a counter perspective, set us up to fail miserably, just like the OL he handed us.

 

[DVontel]

funny thing about Les Snead

three years ago someone might look at his player acquisition record and conclude he was terrible

this isn't an argument for or against Keim -- its just that "replacement level" GMs seem to have good and bad streaks

I would also look into the NO front office -- Mickey Loomis seems to have made a bunch of really smart draft picks AND moving on from players. He had the guts to move on from both Jimmy Graham AND Brandin Cooks

The thing about Mickey Loomis is that he was a bad drafter...& I mean a BAD one for a while until their all time 2017 Draft. I’m surprised the Tom Benson(RIP) had the patience to not fire him.

 

[cardpa]

I believe that Steve Keim is an average to above-average General Manager in the NFL. I think we're more likely to get the next Jason Licht than we are the next Les Snead. But the last few years have been tough, and I've been trying to figure out what might have "happened" with Keim.

To me, the most likely explanation is that Keim is dealing with the long-term effects of Jonathan Cooper not working out and the inevitable correction that comes from all the "Keim Time Signings": short-term signings become expensive.

An alternative, and more attractive, explanation is that Keim and Arians had a uniquely symbiotic relationship. Kevin Clark of the Ringer made the point last offseason that Arians was a guy who was great at talking veteran players into "giving it one last go," and Keim was good at working with Arians to find guys who could still be productive. Keim may not be equipped with his own vision for how a team should be built, and why.

So he relied on Steve Wilks, who did have a vision for how and why to build a team: run the ball and stop the run. He acquired players designed around that vision, and Wilks and his staff both failed to maximize those players and the players weren't good enough.

That's why the Keim-to-the-Raiders rumor is so intriguing: Keim could complement Gruden the way he did Arians. I'm not sure that re-building most of the offense is going to fit with Keim's skill set.

Where should we look? I'm thinking look at the teams who successfully re-built on the fly: Philly and Kansas City immediately come to mind.

I think this is it in a nutshell. Both Arians and Keim hail from the same hometown of York Pa. This certainly had an effect on their relationship. You have to have lived in this section of Pa to understand how that affects relationships. Towns in this area (I lived in the area for 20+ years) have a sort of cloister atmosphere in that if you are a person who was born and grew up in your your town then you automatically had a relationship to anyone from that town even if you didn't know them. In the case of Arians and Keim, they in all probability passed each other at times and at the very least knew about each other in football circles.

 

[kerouac9]

funny thing about Les Snead

three years ago someone might look at his player acquisition record and conclude he was terrible

this isn't an argument for or against Keim -- its just that "replacement level" GMs seem to have good and bad streaks

I would also look into the NO front office -- Mickey Loomis seems to have made a bunch of really smart draft picks AND moving on from players. He had the guts to move on from both Jimmy Graham AND Brandin Cooks

I think that Jeff Fisher was able to run over Snead early in the process, but I don't know that for sure.

New Orleans has been built around Drew Brees for so long, I just don't know if you can fairly measure their progress as a franchise.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I believe that Steve Keim is an average to above-average General Manager in the NFL. I think we're more likely to get the next Jason Licht than we are the next Les Snead. But the last few years have been tough, and I've been trying to figure out what might have "happened" with Keim.

To me, the most likely explanation is that Keim is dealing with the long-term effects of Jonathan Cooper not working out and the inevitable correction that comes from all the "Keim Time Signings": short-term signings become expensive.

An alternative, and more attractive, explanation is that Keim and Arians had a uniquely symbiotic relationship. Kevin Clark of the Ringer made the point last offseason that Arians was a guy who was great at talking veteran players into "giving it one last go," and Keim was good at working with Arians to find guys who could still be productive. Keim may not be equipped with his own vision for how a team should be built, and why.

So he relied on Steve Wilks, who did have a vision for how and why to build a team: run the ball and stop the run. He acquired players designed around that vision, and Wilks and his staff both failed to maximize those players and the players weren't good enough.

That's why the Keim-to-the-Raiders rumor is so intriguing: Keim could complement Gruden the way he did Arians. I'm not sure that re-building most of the offense is going to fit with Keim's skill set.

Where should we look? I'm thinking look at the teams who successfully re-built on the fly: Philly and Kansas City immediately come to mind.

I think I’ve posted this before... especially after Keim’s DUI.
Along with your theory - which is spot on, I also believe Keim fell prey to the trappings that come when you believe you are “the man.” I had seen him out a few functions, and not only was surprised by how much he drank, but also by his demeanor and the way he carried himself. I sensed no humility. Instead, he came across as a pompous snob...
I think in some way, he lost focus on the little things that had helped him get to where he was.
And ultimately, I believe his DUI was the culmination of where he has been heading for quite some time. The hubris it takes to drink the way he was and get behind the wheel of a car, speaks volumes about the man...

 

[Totally_Red]

I'm 50-50 on Keim. Biggest disappointment is with the total failure to build any kind of an NFL offensive line. (That fits your theory of a lot of one-year veteran patches.)
The Jonathan Cooper failure was significant. I was all in on the guy and still wonder if he was a sensitive guy who was mishandled by the Arians and his staff.

The reason I'm 50-50 is because the 2018 draft looks decent, at least the first four picks. Does that mean Keim is better when he doesn't have Arians's input? Who knows?

 

[cardncubfan]

Weeks 1 through 15 is enough proof to your theory.

Not to mention most of Keim's successes are PURE luck.

Lol. Every GM"s success is based on pure luck & skill. Should we look through some of your past mocks & see who was good & who wasn't?

Nooo...Abdullah isn't there, I guess we'll take David Johnson ho-hum..

Every team in the league passed on DJ twice. Some 3 times. Every team in the league passed on Brady a minimum of 5 times. Bottom line is those GM's ended up picking the right guy. Some act like every other GM in the league drafts better than Keim which simply isn't true. Look at the past 5-6 drafts of every other team & you'll realize just how much a crap shoot drafting is & will be.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm 50-50 on Keim. Biggest disappointment is with the total failure to build any kind of an NFL offensive line. (That fits your theory of a lot of one-year veteran patches.)
The Jonathan Cooper failure was significant. I was all in on the guy and still wonder if he was a sensitive guy who was mishandled by the Arians and his staff.

The reason I'm 50-50 is because the 2018 draft looks decent, at least the first four picks. Does that mean Keim is better when he doesn't have Arians's input? Who knows?

Not keeping Massie around was a bad choice. He signed a three-year, $18M contract with $6.5M guaranteed three years ago. He's never had a cap hit greater than $6.1M. Arians' staff wasn't great at developing OL.

 

[TheCardFan]

Not keeping Massie around was a bad choice. He signed a three-year, $18M contract with $6.5M guaranteed three years ago. He's never had a cap hit greater than $6.1M. Arians' staff wasn't great at developing OL.

He is a FA in 2019

 

[Totally_Red]

Not keeping Massie around was a bad choice. He signed a three-year, $18M contract with $6.5M guaranteed three years ago. He's never had a cap hit greater than $6.1M. Arians' staff wasn't great at developing OL.

Yeah the O-line coaching has been terrible. I didn't appreciate Massie when he was here. He's developed into an above average right tackle.

 

[TheCardFan]

Every team in the league passed on DJ twice. Some 3 times.

Not every team was looking to draft a RB by rd 2. We also don't know how many teams had Abdullah rated over David Johnson (we know 2 for sure...Detroit and us).

 

[NJCardFan]

I said it in the gameday thread. Give me one player drafted from 2013 to 2018 currently on the active roster who is making a significant impact. Even DJ, for one reason or another, isn't setting the world on fire right now.

 

[kerouac9]

I said it in the gameday thread. Give me one player drafted from 2013 to 2018 currently on the active roster who is making a significant impact. Even DJ, for one reason or another, isn't setting the world on fire right now.

Budda Baker and Markus Golden are pretty good. Don't know how much of a "significant impact" one player can make on a team this bad. This isn't the NBA.

John Brown is on a 1-year, $5 million contract with Baltimore. We couldn't have given him that? It feels like there was a lot of weird personal stuff going on that's kept this team from maximizing its potential.

 

[GuernseyCard]

I believe that Steve Keim is an average to above-average General Manager in the NFL. I think we're more likely to get the next Jason Licht than we are the next Les Snead. But the last few years have been tough, and I've been trying to figure out what might have "happened" with Keim.

To me, the most likely explanation is that Keim is dealing with the long-term effects of Jonathan Cooper not working out and the inevitable correction that comes from all the "Keim Time Signings": short-term signings become expensive.

An alternative, and more attractive, explanation is that Keim and Arians had a uniquely symbiotic relationship. Kevin Clark of the Ringer made the point last offseason that Arians was a guy who was great at talking veteran players into "giving it one last go," and Keim was good at working with Arians to find guys who could still be productive. Keim may not be equipped with his own vision for how a team should be built, and why.

So he relied on Steve Wilks, who did have a vision for how and why to build a team: run the ball and stop the run. He acquired players designed around that vision, and Wilks and his staff both failed to maximize those players and the players weren't good enough.

That's why the Keim-to-the-Raiders rumor is so intriguing: Keim could complement Gruden the way he did Arians. I'm not sure that re-building most of the offense is going to fit with Keim's skill set.

Where should we look? I'm thinking look at the teams who successfully re-built on the fly: Philly and Kansas City immediately come to mind.

What players did we acquire to implement this "vision"?

 

[Chopper0080]

He is a FA in 2019

I would go after him.

 

[Chopper0080]

That is a huge complaint of mine. So many decent/good players have been let go by this team due to "money" or to give young players a shot.

Bobby Massie (has been mentioned a ton)
Tony Jefferson
John Brown
Alex Okafor
Kareem Martin
Calais Campbell
Jaron Brown
Darren Fells
Lorenzo Alexander
Tyrann Mathieu

Now, not all of these situations are the same, but you can't complain about your roster talent when you have let these types of players go.

 

[CFLredzoned]

An alternative, and more attractive, explanation is that Keim and Arians had a uniquely symbiotic relationship. Kevin Clark of the Ringer made the point last offseason that Arians was a guy who was great at talking veteran players into "giving it one last go," and Keim was good at working with Arians to find guys who could still be productive. Keim may not be equipped with his own vision for how a team should be built, and why.

I don't think that can be emphasized enough - the symbiosis between Arians and Keim and the lack of symbiosis between Wilks and Keim. Whatever the reason for that - Keim resents Wilks because he was Bidwill's guy, so he let him crash - or Wilks instructions were just bad - or the DUI got in the way, etc.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I am still tossed up on keim.
One part of me thinks he intentionally sabotaged wilks because he wasnt his guy...stuff like..." Well we couldnt sign the best guy but here ya go i got ya the third best guy" or... " sorry man all the linebackers want premium money and we just cant commit that much of our assets to one guy this off season"
I think keim dont like wilks...didnt want him...and doesnt want him to succeed here.
Of course i could be wrong and just as full of **** as everyone else on here... But its a thought.

Keim pairing with Gruden is intriguing.
Keim
Gruden
Raiders
Vegas
Seems like a match made in football heaven. Gruden is fully capable of concisely defining exactly what types of players he wants.....and the raiders have a long history of coloring outside the lines at the draft.

Wait you think Keim sabotaged the entire team (not just wilks because you can’t separate them) and you’re still “tossed up” on him?!? Wtf? If that’s even remotely true (which never in a million years will I believe) I want him gone even more!

 

[Jetstream Green]

I believe that Steve Keim is an average to above-average General Manager in the NFL. I think we're more likely to get the next Jason Licht than we are the next Les Snead. But the last few years have been tough, and I've been trying to figure out what might have "happened" with Keim.

To me, the most likely explanation is that Keim is dealing with the long-term effects of Jonathan Cooper not working out and the inevitable correction that comes from all the "Keim Time Signings": short-term signings become expensive.

An alternative, and more attractive, explanation is that Keim and Arians had a uniquely symbiotic relationship. Kevin Clark of the Ringer made the point last offseason that Arians was a guy who was great at talking veteran players into "giving it one last go," and Keim was good at working with Arians to find guys who could still be productive. Keim may not be equipped with his own vision for how a team should be built, and why.

So he relied on Steve Wilks, who did have a vision for how and why to build a team: run the ball and stop the run. He acquired players designed around that vision, and Wilks and his staff both failed to maximize those players and the players weren't good enough.

That's why the Keim-to-the-Raiders rumor is so intriguing: Keim could complement Gruden the way he did Arians. I'm not sure that re-building most of the offense is going to fit with Keim's skill set.

Where should we look? I'm thinking look at the teams who successfully re-built on the fly: Philly and Kansas City immediately come to mind.

Actually a theory is something which has been documented and approved but till then it's a hypothesis, but I think it's safe to say that you are spot on for the most part and I agree with you along with others... sir, that does make it a theory now and a sound one