Andrew Luck to stay in school

[Russ Smith]

He will never be in as good a situation as he is now as the consensus #1 pick. Besides injury risks just an off year could slide him down for a loss of tens of millions. Ask Lienart or Locker. As for a rookie cap there is at least a chance for a grandfather clause to ease that in over the first couple years. Whatever chance there is for 2011 diminishes every year after that. When you consider the odds of a kid making in to Div 1 as a QB and then further to be considered an NFL prospect all the way to the concensus #1 pick you defy all odds. Thats better than having $100M on the table with the dealer showing a 9 and you have two 10s and you take another card. Andrew Luck is sitting on black jack, Cash in your chips son and if you feel guilty build stanford a new locker room ala Phil Knight.

By the same token if he's good enough to be the first pick in the draft he's also good enough to play another year of college and get better and go 1 overall next year. If he has the confidence to turn pro early, it takes just as much confidence to not turn pro and believe you can be even better next year.

The easy thing to do is turn pro.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

By the same token if he's good enough to be the first pick in the draft he's also good enough to play another year of college and get better and go 1 overall next year. If he has the confidence to turn pro early, it takes just as much confidence to not turn pro and believe you can be even better next year.

The easy thing to do is turn pro.

the smart thing to do is turn pro. Everyone has different priorities but financially-wise, there is no argumnet that can be made saying returning to school is the correct move.

 

[Hypothesis]

the smart thing to do is turn pro. Everyone has different priorities but financially-wise, there is no argumnet that can be made saying returning to school is the correct move.

The kid is already rich and is probably set for life as is through his family. Financially-wise, I don't really think he cares as he knows he's going to get paid when he does elect to declare for the draft. Rookie cap or not, the paychecks are still going to be good. He just doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who's going to care too much about huge contracts.

 

[Russ Smith]

the smart thing to do is turn pro. Everyone has different priorities but financially-wise, there is no argumnet that can be made saying returning to school is the correct move.

Sure but you're assuming the entire trigger on the decision is financial when it's probably not. He can afford to put it off. So there are other factors in play, can I get better(he can, doesn't throw the deep ball great yet), can another year help prepare me to play right away, do I feel loyalty to the program and my coach etc. Do I want to play for Carolina? there are many other factors he's considering that you're not besides just the money.

I do agree he'd lose a year of earning power and with the contract stuff he may have to take a lower contract if they put in restrictions on rookie deals. I don't think he cares about that, I think he's a very smart kid who understands he's going to earn tens of millions of dollars in the NFL and he probably can afford to put it off one year to be in a more ideal situation for him.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

The kid is going top 5 no matter whether he comes out this year or next, his family is loaded, and the NFL is very uncertain at this point. I think its a heck of a lot more prudent to stay in.

Yeah thats what they told Jake Locker and Matt Leinart too. Depending on Matt Barkleys year next year he could concievably knock Luck out of that #1 pick.

Especially if Harbaugh leaves (a new coach to learn?!) but even if he stays, staying is the wrong move. Andrew Luck is smart enough to take classes online and get his degree during the lockout.

Doesnt make much sense to me at all but since we don't have the #1 pick its no skin off myback.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Wow, if Luck is staying in school, Newton will probably be long gone by the time we pick.

Too many flaws for him to get to #1 IMO and too many good defensive players. If we want him at 3,4, or 5 he'll be there.

 

[Southpaw]

The kid is already rich and is probably set for life as is through his family. Financially-wise, I don't really think he cares as he knows he's going to get paid when he does elect to declare for the draft. Rookie cap or not, the paychecks are still going to be good. He just doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who's going to care too much about huge contracts.

His father is the AD at WVU. That is not exactly set for life money. Do they own coal mines or something?

 

[Southpaw]

Too many flaws for him to get to #1 IMO and too many good defensive players. If we want him at 3,4, or 5 he'll be there.

Tell me why you think Cam Newton is top 5?

 

[sportznutt]

Wow you must really like Luck. You're willing to give up this years 1st round pick simply to have an extra chance at picking him up the year after?
That's ludacris.

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I didn't mean a 1st........LUDAAAAAAAAAAA

 

[earthsci]

His father is the AD at WVU. That is not exactly set for life money. Do they own coal mines or something?

Oliver Luck has done a lot more with his life than just be the AD at WVU -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Luck

He's only 50, so if his son wanted to stay in school to get his degree he would be comfortable. I'm sure that Andrew would also get an insurance plan in case of injury. Sure Andrew would be guaranteed the money if he came out this year but he has more options than some kid who's mom works two or three jobs.

 

[Southpaw]

Oliver Luck has done a lot more with his life than just be the AD at WVU -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Luck

He's only 50, so if his son wanted to stay in school to get his degree he would be comfortable. I'm sure that Andrew would also get an insurance plan in case of injury. Sure Andrew would be guaranteed the money if he came out this year but he has more options than some kid who's mom works two or three jobs.

I got the impression , from some of the posts, that it was stated that he had access to Forbes' rich list money. Not like the kid who is the QB at Memphis U. His name is Cannon Smith and his father is the founder and CEO of Fed Ex. Now that is family money.

 

[earthsci]

I got the impression , from some of the posts, that it was stated that he had access to Forbes' rich list money. Not like the kid who is the QB at Memphis U. His name is Cannon Smith and his father is the founder and CEO of Fed Ex. Now that is family money.

Yeah. They don't have THAT kind of money!

 

[Seandonic]

Yeah thats what they told Jake Locker and Matt Leinart too. Depending on Matt Barkleys year next year he could concievably knock Luck out of that #1 pick.

Especially if Harbaugh leaves (a new coach to learn?!) but even if he stays, staying is the wrong move. Andrew Luck is smart enough to take classes online and get his degree during the lockout.

Doesnt make much sense to me at all but since we don't have the #1 pick its no skin off myback.

I agree with this.
By the way...if you are a lock to be the number one overall selection in the draft...YOU COME OUT...period.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I'm a teacher and a huge advocate for education... but if you're going to be the #1 pick overall, or at worst a top 5 pick.. you come out, take the cash. If you wash out, you can go back to school.

Exactly right. You can finish school in the summers etc. Part of the point of the education is to prepare for life. When you are an early pick, you take the guaranteed money. Its the only sensible thing to do.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Sure but you're assuming the entire trigger on the decision is financial when it's probably not. He can afford to put it off. So there are other factors in play, can I get better(he can, doesn't throw the deep ball great yet), can another year help prepare me to play right away, do I feel loyalty to the program and my coach etc. Do I want to play for Carolina? there are many other factors he's considering that you're not besides just the money.

I do agree he'd lose a year of earning power and with the contract stuff he may have to take a lower contract if they put in restrictions on rookie deals. I don't think he cares about that, I think he's a very smart kid who understands he's going to earn tens of millions of dollars in the NFL and he probably can afford to put it off one year to be in a more ideal situation for him.

I didn't mean he was basing his decision on finances only just that, if the decision was financially based ,it would be stupid to return to school.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Tell me why you think Cam Newton is top 5?

Athletic QB with great passing and rushing numbers, Big conference success, Incredible measurables that will only go UP as the scouting process and combine happen, and a national stage in front of the country where he will likely put a dent into a Pac 10 defense.

Sound familiar?

http://www.bankrollsports.com/06NFL-Picks-3.shtml

Heres whats more. He has a natural throwing motion that needs no correction, has a cannon arm, and is more accurate then VY. Really he is a lot better NFL prospect then VY and as the link shows, guys with his profile go up during the offseason before the draft, not down.

And for all the reputed character issues, he is a very charasmatic guy that real or not is going to charm the pants off of more then a couple teams.

Right now its a gray area but by March it will be a given. And everyone will forget I wrote this post

If Luck doesn't come out I guaran-damn-tee he is the top QB taken and someone will fall in love enough and be QB desperate enough to make him a Top 5 pick.

Anyone want to bet on this? :mullipleasepickupwhitecourtesyphone:

 

[Reddog]

Oliver Luck has done a lot more with his life than just be the AD at WVU -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Luck

He's only 50, so if his son wanted to stay in school to get his degree he would be comfortable. I'm sure that Andrew would also get an insurance plan in case of injury. Sure Andrew would be guaranteed the money if he came out this year but he has more options than some kid who's mom works two or three jobs.

Guys rich people get rich by doing smart things. Risking $50M+ does not qualify for smart. I dont care how much money your dad has. One torn ACL or a slip on some ice at Lake Tahoe and there it goes. Tell Me Lienart wouldnt want that extra $40M right about now. If he comes out and that happens next year oh well the money still spends.

 

[Russ Smith]

I didn't mean he was basing his decision on finances only just that, if the decision was financially based ,it would be stupid to return to school.

Gotcha, and yes strictly financially you should go.

 

[Russ Smith]

Guys rich people get rich by doing smart things. Risking $50M+ does not qualify for smart. I dont care how much money your dad has. One torn ACL or a slip on some ice at Lake Tahoe and there it goes. Tell Me Lienart wouldnt want that extra $40M right about now. If he comes out and that happens next year oh well the money still spends.

But you're forgetting WHY Leinart stayed at USC, it wasn't to take ballroom dancing, it was because he had surgery on his throwing elbow.

http://www.usctrojans.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/011905aaa.html

Leinart was afraid because of when he had it, late January, it might impact his draft status. Now if you read the release he denies this he says it had nothing to do with him staying in school, but I've never believed that nor really did anybody else. Matt had shoulder surgery when he was younger(baseball injury) and coupled with the tendonitis in his elbow there were concerns.

Remember, one of the reasons Leinart fell the year we picked him was because of concerns about injury, and they were talking most about that elbow surgery.

It's not clear to me Matt would have been the first overall pick the prior year either, we all assume he would have with just Smith and Rodgers to compete with. but he was told the day after surgery that he would not be able to throw for "several months" , I don't offhand know when he was cleared to throw again but combines, workouts etc, I'm pretty sure the combine is held sometime in March, they weren't sure if Leinart would be cleared to throw then.

My point is people keep citing Matt and Locker as guys who lost millions by staying but it's not clear they actually did. Locker was an athletic but inaccurate QB last year too, NFL teams had the same doubts on him then they do now, he had a better season but that doesn't necessarily mean he'd have gone top 3 or top 5. Leinart COULD have gone #1 overall but if the elbow was impacting his workouts, he could have fallen much further than even Rodgers did.

 

[Mitch]

2 things going on here:

1. The potential lockout---as split second pointed out. Might as well stay and play at Stanford in that scenario.

2. The uncertainty about the new contract and whether rookie salaries will be slotted...and what that means...which could work both ways if this draft remains unslotted (time to bolt then) or if it gets slotted (NBA style)---what then would the #1 pick make?

At the end of the day---it won't matter what Harbaugh does. Stanford will hire an excellent coach, no matter what.

If Luck wants to take a shot at a national championship and etch his name on the Heisman---he will stay in Palo Alto.

You know...if he were my son, I would want him to take one dream at a time...thus I would want him to stay.

 

[Southpaw]

But you're forgetting WHY Leinart stayed at USC, it wasn't to take ballroom dancing, it was because he had surgery on his throwing elbow.

http://www.usctrojans.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/011905aaa.html

Leinart was afraid because of when he had it, late January, it might impact his draft status. Now if you read the release he denies this he says it had nothing to do with him staying in school, but I've never believed that nor really did anybody else. Matt had shoulder surgery when he was younger(baseball injury) and coupled with the tendonitis in his elbow there were concerns.

Remember, one of the reasons Leinart fell the year we picked him was because of concerns about injury, and they were talking most about that elbow surgery.

It's not clear to me Matt would have been the first overall pick the prior year either, we all assume he would have with just Smith and Rodgers to compete with. but he was told the day after surgery that he would not be able to throw for "several months" , I don't offhand know when he was cleared to throw again but combines, workouts etc, I'm pretty sure the combine is held sometime in March, they weren't sure if Leinart would be cleared to throw then.

My point is people keep citing Matt and Locker as guys who lost millions by staying but it's not clear they actually did. Locker was an athletic but inaccurate QB last year too, NFL teams had the same doubts on him then they do now, he had a better season but that doesn't necessarily mean he'd have gone top 3 or top 5. Leinart COULD have gone #1 overall but if the elbow was impacting his workouts, he could have fallen much further than even Rodgers did.

See what happens when people lie to the media.

 

[Southpaw]

Athletic QB with great passing and rushing numbers, Big conference success, Incredible measurables that will only go UP as the scouting process and combine happen, and a national stage in front of the country where he will likely put a dent into a Pac 10 defense.

Sound familiar?

http://www.bankrollsports.com/06NFL-Picks-3.shtml

Heres whats more. He has a natural throwing motion that needs no correction, has a cannon arm, and is more accurate then VY. Really he is a lot better NFL prospect then VY and as the link shows, guys with his profile go up during the offseason before the draft, not down.

And for all the reputed character issues, he is a very charasmatic guy that real or not is going to charm the pants off of more then a couple teams.

Right now its a gray area but by March it will be a given. And everyone will forget I wrote this post

If Luck doesn't come out I guaran-damn-tee he is the top QB taken and someone will fall in love enough and be QB desperate enough to make him a Top 5 pick.

Anyone want to bet on this? :mullipleasepickupwhitecourtesyphone:

Not a favorable comparison. In a do over, Vince Young might drop to the 3rd round.

"If wishes were horses, then beggars would be riders".

 

[Southpaw]

2 things going on here:

1. The potential lockout---as split second pointed out. Might as well stay and play at Stanford in that scenario.

2. The uncertainty about the new contract and whether rookie salaries will be slotted...and what that means...which could work both ways if this draft remains unslotted (time to bolt then) or if it gets slotted (NBA style)---what then would the #1 pick make?

At the end of the day---it won't matter what Harbaugh does. Stanford will hire an excellent coach, no matter what.

If Luck wants to take a shot at a national championship and etch his name on the Heisman---he will stay in Palo Alto.

You know...if he were my son, I would want him to take one dream at a time...thus I would want him to stay.

On what do you base the guarantee that Stanford will hire an excellent coach? Before Harbaugh, there was Tyrone Willingham, Buddy Teevens, Walt Harris. Where are they now?

On the issue of the Heisman. That thing is tarnished and has become something of a joke, with its lack of credibility. IMHO. I can't imagine that trophy being the overwhelming rationale for staying for anyone. MNC, ... yes.

 

[Russ Smith]

2 things going on here:

1. The potential lockout---as split second pointed out. Might as well stay and play at Stanford in that scenario.

2. The uncertainty about the new contract and whether rookie salaries will be slotted...and what that means...which could work both ways if this draft remains unslotted (time to bolt then) or if it gets slotted (NBA style)---what then would the #1 pick make?

At the end of the day---it won't matter what Harbaugh does. Stanford will hire an excellent coach, no matter what.

If Luck wants to take a shot at a national championship and etch his name on the Heisman---he will stay in Palo Alto.

You know...if he were my son, I would want him to take one dream at a time...thus I would want him to stay.

Stanford is VERY unlikely to win an NC, I think they start 3 or 4 seniors on that OL which is the strength of the team, and they lose several more on defense. They would be good again with Luck no question, but NC seems unlikely.

 

[DoTheDew]

Stanford is VERY unlikely to win an NC, I think they start 3 or 4 seniors on that OL which is the strength of the team, and they lose several more on defense. They would be good again with Luck no question, but NC seems unlikely.

Eh. QB is the hardest position to replace. Every year I hear the pundits talk about "oh this team is going to be no good they lost all these seniors!" but it usually only comes down to if they lost their QB or not. Just look at the Gators. They only had 14 seniors last year, one of whom was Tebow. See how that worked out for them? It'd be one thing if you were talking about a smash-mouth team like Wisconsin, but that's not really Stanford.