April 19, Insider

[sunsfn]

T-Mac, Carter big names on the block

By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford
Monday, April 19

Maybe it's time for David Stern to recruit Donald Trump. In the first season of the popular reality show The Apprentice, Trump took his interns to meet the venerable George Steinbrenner, who gave the kids tips on everything from buying a World Series to firing a manager. Trump was grinning like a Cheshire cat the entire time. Steinbrenner may know a thing or two about kicking people to the curb, but he has nothing on the Donald.
The NBA could use some of the Donald's expertise. These days, it seems GMs are launching the soon-to-be-trademarked phrase, "You're fired!" on a weekly basis.
Everyone knows coaches are the first to go in the NBA, and a record 18 have been run out of town over the past year. With as many as eight more poised to get the ax this summer, GMs are running out of heads to roll.
Are the player's next? The signs are pointing to an emphatic yes. Already we've heard more trade rumors in April than we usually hear at the trade deadline. The kicker is that the names being bandied about aren't scrubs with little market value -- they are marquee players who stumbled badly on lottery teams this year.

McGrady. Carter. Iverson. Brand. Abdur-Rahim. Allen. ... You're fired?
The list is a who's-who of talented underachievers, and it doesn't stop with them. With the exception of the Utah Jazz, who have no real stars to trade, every lottery team is flirting with the idea of trading one of its biggest stars this summer.
Who's on the block? Who's most likely to be traded? Where could they be heading? Insider has the answers ...
Tracy McGrady, SG, Magic


Tracy McGrady
Shooting Guard
Orlando Magic

Magic GM John Weisbrod knows T-Mac can opt out of his contract after next season and likely will do so if Weisbrod can't seriously upgrade the team this summer. Without cap space, tradeable assets or a crystal ball to divine Grant Hill's health, it's becoming clearer by the day that the Magic may have no choice but to trade T-Mac now, while they can still get value back in return.
McGrady says he doesn't want to leave Orlando, but right now winning is more important. If Weisbrod can't make some miracles happen this summer, look for the Magic to shift gears and attempt to get two or three young prospects (preferably a center and a point guard) in return for McGrady.
Odds of trading T-Mac: 3-to-1

Vince Carter, SG, Raptors


Vince Carter
Guard-Forward
Toronto Raptors

The Raptors' franchise is in rubble, and whomever comes in to replace ousted GM Glen Grunwald is going to have a big decision to make the minute he walks in -- should V.C. stay? Despite Carter's erratic performance and history of injuries, it's a tougher call than you'd think. Carter puts butts in the seats. He's an icon in Toronto. Could the franchise survive without him?
The question on the other side of the coin is just as difficult. Can the Raptors win with him? Carter hasn't shown leadership comensurate with his salary and talent. The team is capped out, has a huge hole at center and is pretty weak at point guard. If trading Carter could help the team fill those holes, is it worth the risk? It should be the toughest call of the summer. Carter has value around the league because of his drawing power. It logically follows that you're not going to get equal star power in return.
Odds of trading Carter: 5-to-1

Elton Brand, PF, Clippers


Elton Brand
Power Forward
Los Angeles Clippers

One year after signing Brand to the biggest contract in franchise history, are the Clippers really considering trading him? The answer, according to sources around the league, is yes. L.A. was horrible down the stretch, finishing on a 3-22 run. Donald Sterling reportedly wants to add some star power to the roster this year. He's got the cap room to sign Kobe Bryant if he can lure him across the hall at the Staples Center.
If he can't, expect the Clippers to make a run at a star like McGrady, Carter or Allen Iverson. Sterling understands the economics of such deals better than anyone. Guys like Iverson or Carter might not translate into more wins, but they will sell more tickets. That's all the Donald really cares about anyway.
Odds of trading Brand: 3-to-1

Allen Iverson, SG, Sixers


Allen Iverson
Shooting Guard
Philadelphia 76ers

A tumultuous season spawned year-long speculation that Iverson and the Sixers were through. After a nice offseason chat with Iverson, however, GM Billy King claims the rift already has been healed and Iverson will be back next season. We'll see. Iverson hated coach Chris Ford and was a disruptive force all season. In addition, his body is breaking down, and his trade value figures to decrease with each passing season. If the Sixers can't find a way to bring Maurice Cheeks into the fold, they're better off shopping Iverson and trying to get another center and young player in return. Would an Iverson for Brand swap work for both teams?
Odds of trading AI: 6-to-1

Shareef Abdur-Rahim, PF, Blazers


Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Power Forward
Portland Trail Blazers

This is the worst-kept secret in the league. Abdur-Rahim said he left his exit interview on Thursday with a strong sense of where the Blazers envisioned him next season: "Somewhere else," he said. With Zach Randolph firmly embedded at the four and Darius Miles set to take over at the three, the Blazers don't need Rahim. Despite a terrible second half and a history of being a player who can't win, Abdur-Rahim is attractive for several reasons. One, he's one of the few proven low-post scorers available. Two, he's a nice guy who won't make waves. Three, he's only 26 years old. Finally, and most importantly, he's entering the last year of his contract, making the risk minimal.
The most obvious fit would be a swap with Seattle for Ray Allen. The Sonics have coveted Abdur-Rahim in the past and made a play for him before the February deadline. The players make the same salary, and their contracts expire at the same time. The Blazers need help in the backcourt, and the Sonics are in desperate need of front-court scoring.
But before you pencil the trade in, remember that a straight-up deal would be pretty lopsided in the Blazers' favor. Allen is a better, more-valuable player. Portland would have to add more to the trade (or take back a few bad contracts) to make it work. Alternatively, Seattle could put together a trade that included a re-signed Brent Barry, Vladimir Radmanovic, Jerome James and their No. 1 for Abdur-Rahim. Another team with interest will be the Warriors, who could offer a combo of Jason Richardson, Nick Van Exel (who is entering the last year of his deal) and their No. 1 for Abdur-Rahim.
Odds of trading Abdur Rahim: 2-to-1

Ray Allen, SG, Sonics


Ray Allen
Shooting Guard
Seattle SuperSonics

The Sonics might not be willing to swap Allen straight-up for Abdur-Rahim, but it does sound like he's no longer untouchable. Allen, once considered one of the NBA's best citizens, has openly complained about Nate McMillian and the Sonics' rebuilding efforts. McMillian shot back at Allen during his season-ending press conference, questioning Allen's attitude and shot selection. The chances of a contract extension this summer no longer look that promising.
Rashard Lewis, Radmanovic, James and Barry also are on the hot seat in Seattle. It appears they're on the verge of another major shake-up, with the goal of landing some low-post scoring and defensive toughness.
Odds of trading Allen: 4-to-1

Shawn Marion, SF, Suns


Shawn Marion
Small Forward
Phoenix Suns

Now that the team has been sold, the rumors about cost-cutting may stop. But if the Suns find a way to lure a player like Kobe or T-Mac, they'll likely use Marion as bait. Marion is one of the best rebounding small forwards in the league, but the team is in love with Joe Johnson, who's cheaper and more versatile. If they do land a player like Kobe or T-Mac, they'd prefer to keep Johnson (who doesn't need 20 shots a game) and rid themselves of Marion's burdensome contract. It might be the type of trade that a team like the Lakers (in a sign-and-trade) just might go for.
Odds of trading Marion: 5-to-1

Jerry Stackhouse, SG, Wizards


Jerry Stackhouse
Guard-Forward
Washington Wizards

We were all scratching our heads this summer when the Wizards, despite a pledge to get serious about rebuilding, gave Stackhouse a three-year extension. Stackhouse promptly missed most of the season with an injury, and when he got back, he struggled to fit in.
Stack wants to win, and the Wizards actually like the backcourt of Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes a little better. They'll try to dangle Stack to the Bobcats, but the Cats likely will pass. A Jamal Mashburn-for-Stackhouse swap might make some sense.
Odds of trading Stackhouse: 3-to-1

Jason Terry, G, Hawks


Jason Terry
Point Guard
Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks will have just four players under contract going into the draft, and one of them, Terry, wants out in the worst way. Terry signed an offer sheet with the Jazz last summer, when he was a restricted free agent, but the Hawks matched it. Since then the relationship has been pretty rocky. The Hawks can't trade Terry without his permission until September, but securing Terry's approval shouldn't be a problem. The Pacers have interest, but the Hawks would want Al Harrington in return. That's too high a price. The Clippers may be a better fit.
Odds of trading Terry: 2-to-1

Tyson Chandler, F, Bulls


Tyson Chandler
Power Forward
Chicago Bulls

Bulls GM John Paxson has to do something. On paper, the Bulls looked like a playoff team heading into this season, but they quickly proved to be as bad as ever. The young kids aren't panning out, the veterans have quit and head coach Scott Skiles is screaming at the wall. The Bulls will make at least one major move this summer, and all signs point to it being Chandler, the former No. 2 pick in the draft for whom the Bulls traded Brand.
Chandler's bad back, inability to score and his lanky frame (he slipped below 230 pounds this season despite being 7-foot-2) will hurt his trade value. At this point, I don't think Paxson cares. If he can get a mid-level veteran who actually knows how to play, that may be enough for him. Ideally, the Bulls would love to get a veteran small forward or two guard in return, but basically they'll take anything at this point.
Odds of trading Chandler: 2-to-1

Jason Richardson, SG, Warriors


Jason Richardson
Shooting Guard
Golden State Warriors

The writing was on the wall the minute the Warriors drafted Mickael Pietrus last summer. Richardson is a big-time scorer and athlete, but he's below-average defender who can give up as many points as he scores. Pietrus isn't as polished offensively, but he's already one of the best on-the-ball defenders in the league. The fact the Warriors' front office was pushing Eric Musselman to play Pietrus down the stretch, at the expense of Richardson, is telling. It's also pretty stupid. Musselman stuck to his guns and played Richardson 40 minutes a night, and that probably salvaged Richardson's trade value. He ended up leading his team in scoring at 18.7 ppg. Someone will offer the Warriors something of value for him. With both Erick Dampier and Adonal Foyle packing their bags, a big man would be nice.
Odds of trading Richardson: 4-to-1

Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C, Cavs


Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Center
Cleveland Cavaliers

Before Cavs fans scream blasphemy, hear me out. Ilgauskas is heading into the last year of his contract, and GM Jim Paxson knows Z's trade value has never been higher. He's been healthy for two consecutive seasons, and his contract provides few risks at this point. Z isn't in the long-term future of the Cavs. If thy can turn him into draft picks, a veteran point guard, or just more young talent, now's the time to do it. Several Eastern Conference teams who believe they are one big man away from contending will jump at the chance to rent Ilgauskas for a season. Better to lose him now and get more building blocks for the future.
Odds of trading Ilgauskas: 4-to-1

 

[George O'Brien]

Every time I would suggest a "sign and trade" of Marion for Kobe, I would be told that the Lakers would never do that. Marion and the results of the Suns first round draft pick would not be "equal value" to the Lakers, but it would be better than nothing since the Lakers would still be way over the cap.

One reason this deal makes sense is because it would mean the Suns would have the cap space to upgrade the center position. But no deal that includes both Shawn and JJ makes sense.

 

[SweetD]

Ilgauskas would be nice to add if we can't get any other free agents. Do a trade of future Cavs pick, White, and Voskul. Sure he would take up cap space next year but could be the piece to put us over the top as well.

 

[George O'Brien]

Ilgauskas would be nice to add if we can't get any other free agents. Do a trade of future Cavs pick, White, and Voskul. Sure he would take up cap space next year but could be the piece to put us over the top as well.

The Cavs can get a lot more for him than that.

 

[elindholm]

Kupchak has stated publicly that he will not entertain sign-and-trade offers for Bryant. The proclamation was widely reported. However, he could change his mind, or the "hard line" could just be for show.

 

[George O'Brien]

Kupchak has stated publicly that he will not entertain sign-and-trade offers for Bryant. The proclamation was widely reported. However, he could change his mind, or the "hard line" could just be for show.

I think he has to take that kind of position. If Kobe knows he can potentially do a sign and trade, then he can talk to everyone. If he suspects that they would not accept a sign and trade, then Kobe is limited to a half dozen teams with potentiall enough cap space: Utah, Denver, Atlanta, San Antonio, the Clippers, and Phoenix. By reducing his bargaining power, Kupchak increases his chances of getting Kobe to sign.

This is why the idea of trading Marion to the Lakers looks feasible. Kupchak would know that there is no way that the Knicks could offer more than MLE, so by refusing to deal he limits Kobe. But if the Suns could do a deal with Kobe without the Lakers cooperation, then their only choice is to take what is offered or get nothing. It would be a real world test of just how much Marion is overpaid if they turn it down under those conditions.

 

[SweetD]

IMO I hope Kobe walks. I don't care if the Suns get him or not, as long as the Lakers loose Kobe and get noting in return I would be much happier with that.

 

[B-Dogg]

Well all of the rumors we heard about Kobe and T-Mac wanting to play together can become a reality if the Suns make a few clever moves. First off they will have to trade Marion and there #1 pick and possibly Zarko to Orlando for McGrady and then be able to trade a future #1 and clevelands #1 with Eisley or White to the Bobcats to beable to sign Kobe. It wouldnt be easy to pull off and is very unlikely but the possibility is deffinatley there. Think about it though you still have one of the youngest teams in the league and a starting line up of Lampe, Stoudemire, Johnson, Kobe, and T-Mac. By far the best starting 5 in the NBA... maybe ever...

 

[Chaz]

I think it is pretty telling that almost every team wanted a big man in return and only one team was trading one.

I would imagine if the Cavs did trade Z then there would be an insider article next year about how the Cavs are looking for a center.


Teams need point guards and centers. What else is new?

They are the two hardest positions to fill.

 

[SweetD]

Lampe, Stoudemire, Johnson, Kobe, and T-MacWould be a scary team, but the only problem is that all of these players must have the ball in their hands to score. Not one of them can create there own shot with out the ball. There wouldn't be much team ball being played. It would be more of a one-on-one every time down the floor. I am just not sure if that would win a championship.

 

[slinslin]

TMac and Kobe aren't exactly dominating the ball. TMac especially is doing some moving without the ball and spotting up.

TMac, Kobe and JJ can all create for themselves as well as others. That is pretty tough to stop.

 

[B-Dogg]

Lampe, Stoudemire, Johnson, Kobe, and T-MacWould be a scary team, but the only problem is that all of these players must have the ball in their hands to score. Not one of them can create there own shot with out the ball. There wouldn't be much team ball being played. It would be more of a one-on-one every time down the floor. I am just not sure if that would win a championship.

While I agree with you currently that is the case because each player needs to dominate the ball on there teams, but if they have confidence and believe in the other players around them then I think they would approach the game with a different mentality...plus you tell Lampe he is out there to do nothing but rebound and make him work on nothing but all summer long...JMO

 

[Chaplin]

As possible (and salivating) as TMac and Kobe sounds, I have a pretty strong feeling that it's all a pipe dream. Kobe only... maybe. TMac... maybe. But both? Unfortunately, I have a better chance of dating Rebecca Romijn.

 

[F-Dog]

Kupchak has stated publicly that he will not entertain sign-and-trade offers for Bryant. The proclamation was widely reported. However, he could change his mind, or the "hard line" could just be for show.

I'm not sure about this, but couldn't Kobe do a sign-and-trade through another team--Utah, for instance? As long as the destination team had $13m worth of players the Jazz were willing to trade for, Kobe could have his pick of franchises.

He wouldn't get as much money as he would by going through the Lakers, but couldn't he get the same amount of money that way as he would get by signing with a different team?

 

[elindholm]

I'm not sure about this, but couldn't Kobe do a sign-and-trade through another team--Utah, for instance?

Bryant doesn't do it, the Lakers do. So yes, theoretically he could be signed-and-traded anywhere, but if the Lakers announce that they won't cooperate, it reduces his options for leaving (as others have said).

 

[elindholm]

Unfortunately, I have a better chance of dating Rebecca Romijn.

Maybe that's unfortunate only for Rebecca Romijn.

 

[F-Dog]

I'm not sure about this, but couldn't Kobe do a sign-and-trade through another team--Utah, for instance?

Bryant doesn't do it, the Lakers do. So yes, theoretically he could be signed-and-traded anywhere, but if the Lakers announce that they won't cooperate, it reduces his options for leaving (as others have said).

So, the Jazz (or any other team) are prohibited from signing-and-trading somebody else's free agent?

Hmm, interesting.

 

[elindholm]

So, the Jazz (or any other team) are prohibited from signing-and-trading somebody else's free agent?

Hmm, interesting.

I'm not sure what you mean. A trade requires the cooperation of both parties. One team can't trade by itself.

Edit: Ah, I get it. You mean Utah could sign Bryant as an unrestricted free agent using their cap room, then trade him immediately to the team that really wanted him in exchange for a package more appealing to Utah.

I don't know whether that's possible. There's probably a rule in the CBA about how soon a player can be traded after signing a FA contract with a new team.

 

[slinslin]

You can only sign and trade your own players.

 

[elindholm]

You can only sign and trade your own players.

But how soon after signing someone can you trade him?

 

[slinslin]

Same as trades I would guess.

Why would Utah do that? Once Bryant puts his name on one of their contracts. Why would they even trade him? Let alone trade him cheap and help a conference rival.

It doesn't help the Suns cap situation either.

They would probably just force him to play or not play in the NBA until his contract is up.

 

[Joe Mama]

If I was the Lakers' GM I wouldn't sign and trade Kobe Bryant for Shawn Marion and the draft pick unless it was a #1-2 pick. I just don't think Shawn Marion is worth nearly as much as he's being paid, and as his deal goes on it's going to get worse.

Joe Mama

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

You can only sign and trade your own players.

But how soon after signing someone can you trade him?

According to Larry Coon's FAQ, a FA signee cannot be traded before Dec. 15th of the year he signs.

 

[George O'Brien]

If I was the Lakers' GM I wouldn't sign and trade Kobe Bryant for Shawn Marion and the draft pick unless it was a #1-2 pick. I just don't think Shawn Marion is worth nearly as much as he's being paid, and as his deal goes on it's going to get worse.

Joe Mama

This is old ground. The "value" of a player varies depending on the context. If every player was an unrestricted free agent every year, then we could be pretty sure that the amount paid would fairly closely track the market value of the player. In the current environment with a limited number of players hitting the market each year, different teams having different salary structures, players getting signed to long term contracts at different stages in their development - determining what a player's value is becomes very very hard.

Is Marion overpaid? Compared to Predrag Stojakovic, the answer is absolutely. Compared to the other SF's in this year's free agent market? We will see.

Here are some of the SG/SF FA's this summer:

Darius Miles (RFA)
Marquis Daniels
Josh Powel
Bob Sura
Brian Cardinal
Calbert Cheaney
Quentin Richardson (RFA)
Bryon Russell
Toni Kukoc
Fred Hoiberg
Courtney Alexander (RFA)
Gordan Giricek
Brent Barry

None of these guys will get as much as Marion and none will do as much. Does that mean he is worth the extra money? It depends on what the extra money will be used for.

The situation for the Lakers is complicated. Even without Kobe on their payroll the will above the salary cap unless every player exercises their player option. Even under that situation, they would still have $41 million in salaries. So in order to replace Kobe, Payton, and Malone - all the Lakers get to use is their MLE.

If the Lakers are given a choice between a trade for Marion and a smaller payrol above the cap, it is not clear that Marion looks all that overpaid.

A stronger case can be made that Shaq is grossly overpaid. He will get $29 million next season and $32 million the following season, which hamstrings their ability to get additional players. The Lakers can afford to re-sign players they already have, but cannot get anyone else. Without Kobe, they will end up surrounding Shaq with marginal players and rookies while still over the cap.

 

[Joe Mama]

I'll bet Shawn Marion' salary ($11.3 million) is $5 million more than any player's on that list next season. The only guy I really wonder about is Brent Barry, and he will not get a six-year deal.

I don't think there are many teams in the NBA that would currently give Shawn Marion anywhere near a maximum contract. There are several players on your list capable of initiating their own offense much, much better then Shawn Marion can. There are players on that list who are better defenders. There are several players on that list who can play multiple positions. Everything be equal I would take Shawn Marion over anyone on that list, but everything isn't equal when he's making $5 million more.

Joe Mama