Are we overestimating the talent on this roster?

[Lomax to Green 84]

I blame myself for this one as much as anyone else, but is this team really as talented as we all seem to think it is?


2004-Lost to San Francisco twice (only two wins for San Fran.)-Niners had #1 overall pick in 2005 draft because they were the worst team in football in 2004.

2005-Lost to Houston badly (30-19) and it could have been much worse. Houston ends up with the #1 pick in the 2006 draft because they were the worst team in football in 2005.

2006-Lost to Oakland badly and it could have been even worse than the score ended up being. Oakland ends up with the #1 pick in the 2007 draft because they were the worst team in football in 2006.

2007-Lost to San Francisco twice and Niners end up 5-11. Should have lost at St. Louis to the Rams, and not for a coin toss could have lost to Atlanta. Rams have 2nd overall choice and Falcons have 3rd overall choice in 2008 draft.

I guess I am not buying the "we now have better coaching therefore we will now win" theory. Dennis Green had a .600 winning percentage with the Vikings so either Green was a pretty good coach who suddenly got horrible, or he was a bad coach to begin with who won with tremendous talent at Minnesota. Either way it doesn't bode well for the Cardinals if we are using coaching as an excuse.

I am also not buying the "give the kid an offseason with John Lott" theory as well. Every team in the NFL has qualified strength coaches and even if John Lott is the best, the margain of advantage he gives us is nill.

Now back to my initial question: Are we overestimating the actual talent on this squad? Just wondering what you guys think.

 

[SuperSpck]

I think it's a team that has been playing to it's competition since 04. Up for the big games, looks past little ones and gets burned on Sunday for it. I think it speaks to taking preparation seriously.

What concerns me in that regard is that the teams "core" are the guys who could be guilty of it. We know players grow into the game, so here's to hoping that's a dying trait.

It's a team that's been labeled as a loser for a century, and while players will say what they will, that's hard to shake.

 

[Duckjake]

I base my judgment of the Cards talent by what I see at similar positions on other teams, thank you NFL Season Ticket. 2006 was the first year that I started to see guys in Cardinal uniforms who looked and played like the players on the other teams in the NFL. For example our LBs now look like LBs instead of Safeties. We also now have a roster full of guys who could actually play on other NFL teams.

2006 was also the first year that they started to have the majority of positions manned by veteran players in at least their 3rd year in the NFL. I am a big believer in an NFL players prime being years 3-8. This year we will have more players in that category than at any time in recent memory.

Hopefully we will have the exact same offensive line for two years in a row for the first time in years.

All that adds up to a real chance at the Cards being in the playoff hunt this season if they can just figure out how to stop opponents passing attacks and our QBOF lives up to his resume.

On the other hand the talent level in prior years was so low that it may make the current guys look much better than they really are.

 

[CardLogic]

I think it is natural for a fan(atic) of any team to overestimate the quality of the talent on the team.

But as SuperSpck pointed out, the losses that Holian delineated are the result of playing up or down to the competition. I am too lazy to do so, but I am guessing that the Cardinals also had some wins in each of those season's that came against teams that they were not expected to beat.

Every team in the NFL has quality players. But it is not always the team with the best player's that wins.

A premier coaching staff gets the team to play nearer to it's full potential for every game, not just the "big games". It is yet to be determined if the Cardinals currently have such a staff. I think they just might!

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Every team's fans overestimate their talent. It is a right as a fan.

 

[DaisyCutter]

I base my judgment of the Cards talent by what I see at similar positions on other teams, thank you NFL Season Ticket. 2006 was the first year that I started to see guys in Cardinal uniforms who looked and played like the players on the other teams in the NFL. For example our LBs now look like LBs instead of Safeties. We also now have a roster full of guys who could actually play on other NFL teams.

2006 was also the first year that they started to have the majority of positions manned by veteran players in at least their 3rd year in the NFL. I am a big believer in an NFL players prime being years 3-8. This year we will have more players in that category than at any time in recent memory.

Hopefully we will have the exact same offensive line for two years in a row for the first time in years.

All that adds up to a real chance at the Cards being in the playoff hunt this season if they can just figure out how to stop opponents passing attacks and our QBOF lives up to his resume.

On the other hand the talent level in prior years was so low that it may make the current guys look much better than they really are.

Kind of said it all. I think we do overestimate the quality of talent on the roster, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Almost all of the players on that side are home-grown, and partly because of that we love them. But the actual results of those players have been stinktastic.

I think that we have enough talent on the roster to be competitve in the NFL. And by that, I mean that if the NFC West remains terrible in comparison to the rest of the league, we can contend for the division, and if Seattle doesn't decline as much as we all hope, we'll contend for a wild card into the last couple weeks of the season.

But I think the way that this team plays to the level of its competition is extremely concerning. I remember that's what this team did in the middling Tobin and Mac years. In coach Whisenhunt's second season, I hope we don't see it at all. Everyone on the roster should know what to expect; there should be no surprises Monday through Saturday. This team should be able to cleanly put away teams like Miami, Carolina, New York Jets, and San Francisco.

I just hope that there are 2-3 games in which the Cards just blow out a team and close the door after two-and-a-half quarters. I'm tired of talking smack to the opposing fans in the seats next to me with 8:23 left on the game clock and then be forced to eat my words.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Yeah, we are homers.. No doubt.

Problem is that we were an 8-8 team and we really haven't done anything to improve our on-the-field product for the upcoming year yet.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Now back to my initial question: Are we overestimating the actual talent on this squad? Just wondering what you guys think.

I think we are under-estimating the talent on this squad personally.


I think any accomplishment this team makes gets buried, and all the negatives get put through the microscope. As much as you can make a case that the Cardinals should have lost a few games more, you can make the same assumptions that the Cardinals could have won a few games more.

A B.S. helmet to helmet call, a missed 32 yard field goal, a swat of the ball out of the back of the endzone, Warner doesn't get hurt 3 plays into a game where our back up was here less than a week, a healthy Boldin, a healthy Fitzgerald, a healthy Adrian Wilson........... you could have been looking at a 11-5 season.

But the point of this post is worth bringing up. Potential is a great word, but it must be followed by production to hold any meaning. This team has to start producing, and that means next season we go to the playoff or that window of oppourtunity for the "Boldin Generation of Cardinals" is going to close very quickly.

 

[cardsfanmd]

Trying to move on here--Some questions

I am trying my best to get by the whole "Fitz" thing. When does the schedule come out?? What are your guys' thoughts about how we match up with our '08 opponents? Is it too early to consider that stuff being as though the draft is coming?


edit-- oops, I meant to make this a new thread, my bad.

 

[Darth Llama]

I'm not sure this team has the talent to make a playoff run to be honest. They might, they might not, there are a lot of variables to consider. How well will Leinart play this year? Will our offensive line hold up? Will Edge still be our starting back? Who's our 3rd wide out? Can we get enough pass pressure to prevent our secondary from getting torched?

I could go on and on, but you guys all have the same questions I do. Still, it won't stop me from shelling out for my season tickets and going to every game expecting to win the Super Bowl. After all, Kool Aid is more addictive then crack.

 

[red desert]

I think we are under-estimating the talent on this squad personally.

Oh, there's a surprise post.

 

[Jetstream Green]

not at all, young team which finished 8-8 which now has decent coaching to develope them...we are not overrated.

 

[DaisyCutter]

not at all, young team which finished 8-8 which now has decent coaching to develope them...we are not overrated.

Oooh! Can I make this point for Duckjake?

This isn't a "young team" anymore. On defense, Hood, Berry, Okeafor, Hayes, Dansby, Pace, Smith, Dockett, Wilson, Hood, Francisco, Green, and Rolle, all had at least two years of experience going into the season.

On the other side of the ball, Edge, Smith, Warner (who started most of the games), Fitz, Anquan, Gandy, Wells, and Bryant and Al Johnson all had multiple NFL seasons.

Youth and inexperience wasn't an excuse for poor performance last season, and it's certainly not going to be an excuse next year. This is now a veteran team. The window of opportunity for this team is open. They have maybe three years to make some noise (unless Fitz fails to get extended).

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Oh, there's a surprise post.

Oh, there's a surprise post.

 

[Duckjake]

Oooh! Can I make this point for Duckjake?

This isn't a "young team" anymore. On defense, Hood, Berry, Okeafor, Hayes, Dansby, Pace, Smith, Dockett, Wilson, Hood, Francisco, Green, and Rolle, all had at least two years of experience going into the season.

I think that the Cards were a young team for so long that it just became a fixture in peoples minds. Time goes by fast too. Boldin,Wells and Hayes are going into their 6th season! Hard to believe.

 

[DaisyCutter]

I think that the Cards were a young team for so long that it just became a fixture in peoples minds. Time goes by fast too. Boldin,Wells and Hayes are going into their 6th season! Hard to believe.

For real. I was thinking about that. Look at the (probable) starting roster for the 2008 Arizona Cardinals (NFL Experience in parentheses):

OFFENSE:

Backfield:
RB: Edgerrin James (10)
FB: Terrelle Smith (9)
QB: Matt Leinart (3)


Offensive Line:
LT: Mike Gandy (8)
LG: Reggie Wells (6)
C: Al Johnson (6)
RG: Deuce Lutui (3)
RT: Levi Brown (2)

Receivers:
WR1A: Anquan Boldin (6)
WR1B: Larry Fitzgerald (5)
TE1: Leonard Pope (3)
TE2: Jeremy Tuman (10)
WR3: Sean Morey (7)

DEFENSE:

Defensive Line:
RDE: Darnell Dockett (5)
NT: Gabe Watson (4)
LDE: Antonio Smith (5)

Linebackers:
ROLB: Bertrand Berry (11)
RILB: Karlos Dansby (5)
LILB: Gerald Hayes (6)
LOLB: Chike Okeafor (9)

Backfield:

RCB: Eric Green (4)
FS: Aaron Francisco (4)
SS: Adrian Wilson (8)
LCB: Roderick Hood (6)
NB: Antrel Rolle (4)

There are no excuses for this team making stupid mistakes. There are no excuses for this team not to compete. For the first time in what feels like a decade, we have a roster where there isn't one starter that I can see wouldn't make the roster of another NFL club (which says a lot about the state of Arizona Cardinal football since 1997). The time to win is now. There is no next year.

And if the Cards fail to keep both Fitz and Dansby next year, we'll likely be starting the whole process over again. That's how important keeping them both is.

 

[cardsfanmd]

The real question IMO is whether years spent uder the tutelege of Denny really constitute as a full year of experience and learning.

 

[Duckjake]

The real question IMO is whether years spent uder the tutelege of Denny really constitute as a full year of experience and learning.

Well, we would probably be favored in the NFL Pie eating contest.

 

[joeshmo]

I myself havent overestimated the talent. I think it is there for the most part(playoff wise but not super bowl wise). But talent doesnt mean having the mental aspect of the game down. Playing to the level of competition and the huge amounts of penalties more then any other year under Denny Green tells me they lack the mental aspect of the game. I think Wiz runs his camp a little harder this year, with fewer days off for movies and bolwing, less none pad practices, fewer practices being cut short, overall a more physical camp.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I myself havent overestimated the talent. I think it is there for the most part(playoff wise but not super bowl wise). But talent doesnt mean having the mental aspect of the game down. Playing to the level of competition and the huge amounts of penalties more then any other year under Denny Green tells me they lack the mental aspect of the game. I think Wiz runs his camp a little harder this year, with fewer days off for movies and bolwing, less none pad practices, fewer practices being cut short, overall a more physical camp.

I agree. He doesn't have to get the team to like him. They now respect him, that's enough.

 

[joeshmo]

I agree. He doesn't have to get the team to like him. They now respect him, that's enough.

It really was one of the lamest camps I have every went to in my 10 years of driving to Flagstaff for a weekend.

 

[Stout]

We are without question overestimating the talent level of this team. We have some homers here who gloss over some problems with some of the starters we will be relying on. Will those problems become gaping holes or minimal problems we can cope with? Time will tell. The biggest problem we have that people seem to look past is depth. We have NO backup defensive linemen, save for at NT. We have ONE backup OLB, and we don't know if we can get a consistent, healthy pass rush out of what we do have. We have NO backup CBs, and questions with one of our starters. We have very thin depth at OL where we typically end up getting hammered by injuries. Yeah, the draft should help with that, but I am positive the Giants are the exceptions and not the rule. You cannot count on rookies plugging all the holes on your roster. You should only 100 percent count on one or two guys, but expect to have backup plans in case they don't work. Rookies need to be developed, and even a future all-pro can be bad his first season.

People seem to take it for granted that we're going to the playoffs this year. I'm hoping we do, but we have a lot to overcome and work through to get there. Personally, I'm going to be optimistic, otherwise I wouldn't be able to handle it. Realistically, I'm highly nervous about all the positive juju heading forward.

 

[DaisyCutter]

I guess the question is who is being taken under the thread title "we"? I think that some here are overestimating the talent on the roster, and that some are underestimating it. But in a forum where there are people who believe that Whis should be fired and people who think that Whis has already proved himself as being the best coach in the NFC West, I think that it's impossible to generalize.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

There are no excuses for this team making stupid mistakes. There are no excuses for this team not to compete. For the first time in what feels like a decade, we have a roster where there isn't one starter that I can see wouldn't make the roster of another NFL club (which says a lot about the state of Arizona Cardinal football since 1997). The time to win is now. There is no next year.

Exactly how I feel. It is getting to be now or never with the current guys on the team.

I think the team is in good shape to make a run.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

We are without question overestimating the talent level of this team. We have some homers here who gloss over some problems with some of the starters we will be relying on. .

Lately, I might seemed to be "glossing" over problems. I am not. There are problems without a doubt. But there are some positive things going on right now.
That being said you are also right in the fact that a lot of situations with this team are paper thin and cause for concern. We may not be the best team situated for injury and unforseen bad luck but we are not the worst either.

This is a great run down! There is a LONG way to go, and a lot will happen between now and the season opening kickoff.

Will those problems become gaping holes or minimal problems we can cope with? Time will tell. The biggest problem we have that people seem to look past is depth. We have NO backup defensive linemen, save for at NT. We have ONE backup OLB, and we don't know if we can get a consistent, healthy pass rush out of what we do have. We have NO backup CBs, and questions with one of our starters. We have very thin depth at OL where we typically end up getting hammered by injuries. Yeah, the draft should help with that, but I am positive the Giants are the exceptions and not the rule. You cannot count on rookies plugging all the holes on your roster. You should only 100 percent count on one or two guys, but expect to have backup plans in case they don't work. Rookies need to be developed, and even a future all-pro can be bad his first season.

People seem to take it for granted that we're going to the playoffs this year. I'm hoping we do, but we have a lot to overcome and work through to get there. Personally, I'm going to be optimistic, otherwise I wouldn't be able to handle it. Realistically, I'm highly nervous about all the positive juju heading forward.

AWESOME post!