Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Last Sunday Murray had a bad game. Much of the board seemed to be looking forward to an easy win against Washington. I’m sure many of you watched Kingbury’s offense take the Bengals’ defense apart Monday night. If their game play looked familiar I suspect some of you thought of one of Murray’s better games in year two. Daniels, however, looked more polished and should have with 55 starts in college compared with less than 20 for Murray. Daniels has grown with each game. Kingsbury’s offense has benefited from a better O-line and more weapons than Kingsbury & Murray had at that point. I’m not going to waste time on Keim. The facts are the facts. Washington has even picked up Ertz for short, mostly possession, pass plays.
I want to make it clear. The Washington game is Murray’s game to lose. If he plays to his ability, which I expect, the Cards win something like 44 to 34. It’s not that I think Murray has more talent, I just think it’s unlikely a rookie QB plays back to back nearly perfect games. Daniels’ potential is unreal. If he avoids serious injury, by year 3 he could be the best QB in the league. That, however, is a big if. Take Burrow. Once thought by many to be the next great QB, since his injury, he just hasn’t been the same player. Daniels runs aggressively risking serious injury. He’s fast and surprisingly strong. However, he doesn’t always slide. Instead he fights for extra yards, like an RB. In the NY game doing this he took a helmet to the ribs, being forced to sit out a play. He was lucky he didn’t break some ribs. I’m not advocating hurting people, but if he does this he will get punished by the Cards. Alertly the Commodores are coaching him, “Don’t run if you can; run if you have to.” He’s smart, but he sometimes lets his competitive instincts overrule his better judgment. Too many injuries may blunt his future.
Daniels will hurt the Cards running. It is critical the Cards’ outside guys contain him, forcing him back towards the middle of the field. Also the Commodores like to throw passes, including screens, in the flat. Defenders must be ready to move up quickly staying aware not to overrun the play. The Cards need to sharpen their tackling. If you try to arm tackle Daniels you’re just conceding extra yardage. Tampa blitzed 15 times but only sacked Daniels twice. The Cards will undoubtedly have to blitz to pressure him. They must stay in their lanes otherwise he’ll break long runs. If the Cards are in man coverage they must stay aware Daniels loves to run when all he sees defenders’ backs. He will climb the pocket and be on the loose.
Also while I like Washington’s O-line, they committed several costly penalties against the NY Giants. Except for a Nabers’ drop (otherwise he was great), the Giants win the game. I wouldn’t have wanted to be in the O-line film room for that post game review. I used to have a cartoon with a worker emerging from a door with a giant bite mark on his rear. The caption read, “What did the boss have to say.” Not surprisingly the O-line was much better against the Bengals. The Giants triggered some of those penalties by employing minor D-line movement before the snap. They simply made the Commodores’ line jumpy. The Cards would benefit from using that tactic.
The Commodores love to throw those short passes early to get Daniels in rhythm, particularly short crossing routes. The Cards need to be aware and avoid running into their own defenders. Washington likes to use Ertz on these routes. He’s not fast, but strong. Likely a LB will end up running with Ertz. The LB needs stay tight and be very physical in coverage. If they stay close, undercutting and snaring an interception should be possible. Trying to cover these routes with safeties just allows easy short completions. They can’t get there in time. Daniels is astonishingly accurate. You shouldn’t give big cushions like the Cards have been doing. He will pick that defense apart. CBs must trust they can run with these WRs. The exception is McLaurin. You have to put a safety over the top or he will win deep.
Finally, the Commodores have a strong running game. Robinson and Ekeler are both capable of breaking long runs. Ekeler is also a fine receiver. They will likely run for 150+ yards in this game. If they run for more than 200, the Cards may have trouble getting enough possessions. The LBs must shed blockers and fill gaps, but not commit too quickly. They must tackle effectively and get support from one of the safeties. They must be alert for turnovers and get on any free ball.
When the Cards are on offense I expect a balanced attack. I think they can run and pass effectively against the Washington defense. Murray should look for single safety deep sets. That will tell him WRs are typically going to be single covered, especially Harrison on deep fly routes. Harrison will win most 50/50 balls. The ball needs to get out early enough to preclude that single safety from getting to the boundary to double the WR. Like in the Rams game, Murray must spread the ball around. Time may be short but when possible he must use progressions instead of just throwing to a covered primary receiver. One of the reasons the Cards have poor YAC is Murray too often isn’t patient enough to find a more open receiver so they have room to make a move. Again good strategy requires rolling him out so he can set up seeing the entire field. The Washington secondary is weak, giving huge cushions. Their team as a whole tackles sloppily. The Cards should win an offensive shootout. However, the offense must be consistent and avoid turnovers. If Murray wants this game bad enough to stay focused, Cards win.
I want to make it clear. The Washington game is Murray’s game to lose. If he plays to his ability, which I expect, the Cards win something like 44 to 34. It’s not that I think Murray has more talent, I just think it’s unlikely a rookie QB plays back to back nearly perfect games. Daniels’ potential is unreal. If he avoids serious injury, by year 3 he could be the best QB in the league. That, however, is a big if. Take Burrow. Once thought by many to be the next great QB, since his injury, he just hasn’t been the same player. Daniels runs aggressively risking serious injury. He’s fast and surprisingly strong. However, he doesn’t always slide. Instead he fights for extra yards, like an RB. In the NY game doing this he took a helmet to the ribs, being forced to sit out a play. He was lucky he didn’t break some ribs. I’m not advocating hurting people, but if he does this he will get punished by the Cards. Alertly the Commodores are coaching him, “Don’t run if you can; run if you have to.” He’s smart, but he sometimes lets his competitive instincts overrule his better judgment. Too many injuries may blunt his future.
Daniels will hurt the Cards running. It is critical the Cards’ outside guys contain him, forcing him back towards the middle of the field. Also the Commodores like to throw passes, including screens, in the flat. Defenders must be ready to move up quickly staying aware not to overrun the play. The Cards need to sharpen their tackling. If you try to arm tackle Daniels you’re just conceding extra yardage. Tampa blitzed 15 times but only sacked Daniels twice. The Cards will undoubtedly have to blitz to pressure him. They must stay in their lanes otherwise he’ll break long runs. If the Cards are in man coverage they must stay aware Daniels loves to run when all he sees defenders’ backs. He will climb the pocket and be on the loose.
Also while I like Washington’s O-line, they committed several costly penalties against the NY Giants. Except for a Nabers’ drop (otherwise he was great), the Giants win the game. I wouldn’t have wanted to be in the O-line film room for that post game review. I used to have a cartoon with a worker emerging from a door with a giant bite mark on his rear. The caption read, “What did the boss have to say.” Not surprisingly the O-line was much better against the Bengals. The Giants triggered some of those penalties by employing minor D-line movement before the snap. They simply made the Commodores’ line jumpy. The Cards would benefit from using that tactic.
The Commodores love to throw those short passes early to get Daniels in rhythm, particularly short crossing routes. The Cards need to be aware and avoid running into their own defenders. Washington likes to use Ertz on these routes. He’s not fast, but strong. Likely a LB will end up running with Ertz. The LB needs stay tight and be very physical in coverage. If they stay close, undercutting and snaring an interception should be possible. Trying to cover these routes with safeties just allows easy short completions. They can’t get there in time. Daniels is astonishingly accurate. You shouldn’t give big cushions like the Cards have been doing. He will pick that defense apart. CBs must trust they can run with these WRs. The exception is McLaurin. You have to put a safety over the top or he will win deep.
Finally, the Commodores have a strong running game. Robinson and Ekeler are both capable of breaking long runs. Ekeler is also a fine receiver. They will likely run for 150+ yards in this game. If they run for more than 200, the Cards may have trouble getting enough possessions. The LBs must shed blockers and fill gaps, but not commit too quickly. They must tackle effectively and get support from one of the safeties. They must be alert for turnovers and get on any free ball.
When the Cards are on offense I expect a balanced attack. I think they can run and pass effectively against the Washington defense. Murray should look for single safety deep sets. That will tell him WRs are typically going to be single covered, especially Harrison on deep fly routes. Harrison will win most 50/50 balls. The ball needs to get out early enough to preclude that single safety from getting to the boundary to double the WR. Like in the Rams game, Murray must spread the ball around. Time may be short but when possible he must use progressions instead of just throwing to a covered primary receiver. One of the reasons the Cards have poor YAC is Murray too often isn’t patient enough to find a more open receiver so they have room to make a move. Again good strategy requires rolling him out so he can set up seeing the entire field. The Washington secondary is weak, giving huge cushions. Their team as a whole tackles sloppily. The Cards should win an offensive shootout. However, the offense must be consistent and avoid turnovers. If Murray wants this game bad enough to stay focused, Cards win.
