RBs don't last, and certainly don't last after the workload Murray had last year for the Cowboys. All you are doing in buying the car after 150,000 miles. Pay for future production, not past production.
I understand this thinking, I just think EVERYBODY (and when I say that I mean all over the media) is using this as the rationale, when it really doesn't make sense for Murray. It's like everyone is making the same mistake by assuming the same faulty rationale. A rationale that may or may not be true for older running backs... it depends on the running back, but also remember Murray is NOT an old running back. He may be 27, which is still three years away (already had his b-day this year) from the dreaded 30, but he ALSO entered the league at 24, and not 21-22.
On one hand ESPN and others have him as one of the top ranked guys, but everyone and the mother is saying...well let someone else pay for all those carries. Except where are those carries? It just isn't true with Murray.
I get the guys over 30 who have toted it 250-300 times a season for 8 years or so, but this guy toted it heavily for ONE season.
2014 392 1,845 4.7 13
2013 217 1,121 5.2 9
2012 161 663 4.1 4
2011 164 897 5.5 2
Another way to look is at his attempts per game
2014 24.5
2013 15.5
2012 16.1
2011 12.6
So in REALITY, as opposed to the talking head media, he really only carried the ball heavily for one season. Does everyone think he's used up from one season of that? ONE? Also here, since we have AE, I doubt he averages even 20 totes a game.
Also if you want to consider Emmitt Smith, by the end of year four he had toted the ball 1262 times to Murray's 934. Also from that point on Emmitt Smith averaged over 20 carries a game in four more seasons and had eight more 1,000 yard plus rushing seasons.
Some more perspective, when Emmit Smith had four years experience, it was after the 1993 season. Since Murray was older when he entered the league, age wise it would be like when Smith was about to enter the 1996 season.
So Murray doesn't have a lot of tread on the tires, at least in the NFL.
Now that we cleared this up, now let's juxtapose that faulty rationale and go by WHY the talking heads, in the past, would use this as a rationale...
Because running backs were some of the highest paid players. Ok. So don't sign a guy with a lot of tread to a huge contract. Not just a huge contract $$$ per yer, but with tons of years.
Well, these days 4-6-8 million a season for a stud running back is not breaking the bank. I think he signs somewhere in the 5-7 range per. So the faulty rationale does not apply here....
But guess what, the days of 6 and 7 year contracts for RB's is pretty much over. We know what Jerrah offered, and that was 4 years and 16.X million.
So a 4 year contract is most likely imo, with an outside chance at a 5 year.
Well a 4 year contract only puts him at 30 and a 5 year at 31. Couple that with the small money per, and it seriously is a completely different ball game. This isn't 12 per year for 7 years when the cap was at 90-110. This would be 5-7 for 4-5 when the cap is at 143. Completely different scenario.
Now AP is 30 (or will be very soon), and he's going to want more then Murray. There are also other guys hitting the market, Spiller just did. There are also some pretty good ones in the draft. So I'm fine with different approaches.
But what I do think, is that everyone is listening to bad advice, and someone is going to get a helluva talent at one helluva good price, and is going to make everyone else look like morons. Maybe it's better for us to go another route, so we can get some more help elsewhere, I understand that. But someone is going to get a helluva tough runner, who is still young, has tons of tread left, and at an unbelievably cheap price. I seriously wouldn't mind it being us.
Plus then we can always rub it in that Jerrah chose to pay a scrub 3rd-4th midget WR who had 500 something yards last year only a couple million less then he offered Murray.