At the Risk of Being Sacreligious

[Chopper0080]

This is extremely selective use of statistics, and I can't see how anyone who watched both seasons can possibly say we made the right call. This season, our offense was healthy down the stretch and controlling games; last season, Ryan Lindley was our QB, and it is extremely well-documented how the burden fell onto a defense that got ground to a pulp by lack of offensive support.

Please. I mean, please. Don't misrepresent the facts through selective use of statistics. This is just too easy to see through. Granted, our rookie did yeoman's work at the position, but didn't hold a candle.

Yards per game and yards per attempt don't seem to be very selective stats, they seem to be appropriate stats.

I am sighting statistics in regards to run defense, and your argument is based on the QB situation. I am aware that the offense affects the defense, but it isn't that big. Even if you argued that the QB situation in 2014 made the seasons even, rather than 2015 being statistically better, the Cards still avoided paying 15 mil over two years to a 35% snap player and got similar results. That is a good move.

What statistics would be less selective regarding our rush defense rather than using yards per game and yards per rush? Those were selected because they seem the most relevant.

 

[Chopper0080]

I now find it funny that in a post season where almost everyone is pushing for more athleticism on defense and to improve the pass rush, people are complaining about not paying 8 mil to a guy who improves neither.

 

[Matt L]

Hits in bold, misses italics. TBD neither.

Year Rnd Pick Pos
2015 1 24 D.J. Humphries T
2015 2 58 Markus Golden LB
2015 3 86 David Johnson RB
2015 4 116 Rodney Gunter DT
2015 5 158 Shaquille Riddick LB
2015 5 159 JJ Nelson WR
2015 7 256 Gerald Christian TE

2014 1 27 Deone Bucannon DB
2014 2 52 Troy Niklas TE
2014 3 84 Kareem Martin DE
2014 3 91 John Brown WR
2014 4 120 Logan Thomas QB
2014 5 160 Ed Stinson DE
2014 6 196 Walt Powell WR

2013 1 7 Jonathan Cooper G
2013 2 45 Kevin Minter LB
2013 3 69 Tyrann Mathieu DB
2013 4 103 Alex Okafor LB
2013 4 116 Earl Watford G
2013 5 140 Stepfan Taylor RB
2013 6 174 Ryan Swope WR
2013 6 187 Andre Ellington RB
2013 7 219 D.C. Jefferson TE

Just focusing on Keim's drafts, the bolded players are difference makers but just looking at his selections in the first 64 picks of each draft leave a lot to be desired:

2015 1 24 D.J. Humphries T
2015 2 58 Markus Golden LB

2014 1 27 Deone Bucannon DB
2014 2 52 Troy Niklas TE

2013 1 7 Jonathan Cooper G
2013 2 45 Kevin Minter LB

Nobody asked for this but here's my thoughts on each:
2015 1 24 D.J. Humphries T Next year there are going to be two very distinct camps for DJ. On one side there will be posters who will constantly key on him and his shortcomings all next season. Assuming he plays and he provides about the same production as Bobby Massie, there will be multiple posters who will constantly bring him up as another first round bust. On the other hand there will be just as many posters giving him a pass and saying things like, "well this is basically his rookie year, give him some time to figure it out..." Ultimately, I bet he ends up about league average and will fit right in with this group of Keim's picks.

2015 2 58 Markus Golden LB i can't really get excited about him. He plays a lot like Okafor, who played a lot like Sam Acho who played a lot like Okeafor. It's kind of like your friend who always dates the same type of girl and then always complains about the same aspect of each new girlfriend.

2014 1 27 Deone Bucannon DB He allows the defense to play 5 or 6 defensive backs on the field even though he lines up as a linebacker. He's definitely fast but I am not sure he can cover anyone or be a an effective spy on a mobile quarterback.

2014 2 52 Troy Niklas TE He looks like a football player and has the size and measurables to be an effective tight end. However, he can't get on the field because he is always injured. That said, his physicality looks more like an extra blocker rather than a game changing tight end which begs the question, why are they using a 2nd round pick on blocking tight end?

2013 1 7 Jonathan Cooper G Cooper received the same treatment in 2014 that DJ will receive in 2016. That said, I and some others are flummoxed that Ted Larsen was playing over him at the end of this last season. It looks more and more like Cooper is a bust, or at least a bust with this coaching staff.

2013 2 45 Kevin Minter LB Minter gets picked on a lot on this board. It is not his fault that he is slow and gets stuck trying to cover running backs going out on routes or is trying to navigate through the offensive line on a predictable ILB blitz. That said I don't think he would start on any other team in the NFC West and I am not sure he would start for over half of the teams in the NFL.

I know that Keim has made some good picks like Honey Badger, John Brown, and David Johnson. He's also made some bad picks and he's really missed on his first and second round selections.

 

[Harry]

Matty, you saved me a post on Golden. I think you have him pegged correctly. I think he has an issue with finishing and I'm not confident he'll ever reach the 8 sack level. I would agree it would help all the rushers if the Cards D-line could collapse the pocket more often. You could see the huge difference that makes in the first Packer game.

As for Deone I think the jury is still out. The Cards are using a different defensive philosophy by playing him inside. When you do something like that it takes quite a few games to refine the system. The Japanese call it Kaizan, meaning continuous improvement. The Cards may be on to something here, but it will take an outstanding nose tackle to fully exploit the potential IMO.

 

[Veer]

Dan Williams was a force against the run, but offered zilch as a pass rusher. In fact, he wasn't even on the field on passing downs. Our defensive unit has good gap integrity and cheap but solid young run stoppers like Stinson, Mauro and Gunther, or cheap vets like Redding or Bryant. Peters is more athletic than Dan and was ready to step in for less than half the price tag until he went to IR.

My point is, we made the right choice to not pay 8m per year to a run stuffing NT with zero pass rush ability. Unless you have a NT that can collapse the pocket on passing downs like Wilfork used to do, it's a position you go cheap rather than overpay.

 

[Veer]

Golden is physically limited, but that doesn't mean he can't be a good player for many years. Many others did it before him. He plays smart, tough and with a relentless motor. What he needs most is a true force on the opposite side or on the DL. Can't only have All Pros, but more importantly tough soldiers like Golden.

 

[Stout]

Yards per game and yards per attempt don't seem to be very selective stats, they seem to be appropriate stats.

I am sighting statistics in regards to run defense, and your argument is based on the QB situation. I am aware that the offense affects the defense, but it isn't that big. Even if you argued that the QB situation in 2014 made the seasons even, rather than 2015 being statistically better, the Cards still avoided paying 15 mil over two years to a 35% snap player and got similar results. That is a good move.

What statistics would be less selective regarding our rush defense rather than using yards per game and yards per rush? Those were selected because they seem the most relevant.

Simply quoting a stat without context doesn't come close to telling the story. The run defense clearly doesn't operate in a vacuum, and I've detailed in great length, game by game, how the run defense suffered because of the QB situation, in past posts.

As for Deone I think the jury is still out. The Cards are using a different defensive philosophy by playing him inside. When you do something like that it takes quite a few games to refine the system. The Japanese call it Kaizan, meaning continuous improvement. The Cards may be on to something here, but it will take an outstanding nose tackle to fully exploit the potential IMO.

If only, if ONLY, we had one of those on our roster...oh, yeah, we got rid of him lol

 

[kerouac9]

I've said it before —*I think Keim is perfectly happy to hit singles and doubles with his Top 60 picks and take bigger swings later in the draft.

The benefit to that approach is that you get guys like Matthieu and David Johnson for little cost and even less risk.

What makes that approach frustrating is if/when those attempts to just get on base with those higher picks still fail. If we only get 30 starts from Jonathan Cooper and D.J. Humphries, if we don't extend or re-sign Kevin Minter, those picks are just as wasted as if we'd overdrafted a QB or OLB prospect and they washed out.

 

[Houdini]

Kind of Ironic. In Green Bay the other month I was reading an article how their GM Ted Thompson should take a few more chances on aging vets like Freeney the way Keim does. Ted is the ultimate draft and develop guy and rarely signs a free agent, figuring older guys tend to break down easier and cost more. His constant turnover of a young roster with draft picks and undrafted players keeps the roster young and competitive. But the article in Green Bay made the argument that adding Vets like Freeney might help get the Packers over the top compared to keeping young inexperienced guys at the end of the roster who don’t play much anyway. It is a crap shoot with either philosophy.

 

[Chopper0080]

Simply quoting a stat without context doesn't come close to telling the story. The run defense clearly doesn't operate in a vacuum, and I've detailed in great length, game by game, how the run defense suffered because of the QB situation, in past posts.

Ok, you go ahead and formulate your argument for paying Dan Williams 8 mil per year based on your game by game interpretation based on QB play while I will base my opposing argument on statistics related to the defensive performance vs the run.

Facts are that Dan Williams was better than any NT on our roster this year, but the overall impact of the NT position in this defense is marginal at best. Because of this, Keim made the right choice in saving to money to address other issues.

 

[cardfaninfl]

I miss Dan's contribution to 35% of the defensive snaps.

 

[Cardiac]

It's a shame Dumpster Dan had zero impact on pass rushing downs and therefore was only used on 35% of the snaps. I liked Dan but not nearly as much as the Raiders or Stout.

 

[Stout]

Hey, I feel perfectly vindicated in my opinion that we made a mistake not keeping Dumpster Dan. Feel free to try to sway me, but I haven't read anything that's come close to it yet. I don't care about percentage of snaps because, gee, it ain't like we've replaced him on those snaps with pass rush ability or speed in the front seven. So, tell me again how that money was better spent elsewhere?

 

[Chopper0080]

Hey, I feel perfectly vindicated in my opinion that we made a mistake not keeping Dumpster Dan. Feel free to try to sway me, but I haven't read anything that's come close to it yet. I don't care about percentage of snaps because, gee, it ain't like we've replaced him on those snaps with pass rush ability or speed in the front seven. So, tell me again how that money was better spent elsewhere?

Chris Johnson and Dwight Freeney?

I find it funny that you don't care about usage or actual stat comparisons of performance vs the run. Obviously you have your mind made up, and regardless of the statistics which are presented, you would prefer to go off your hunches and feelings. Feel free to be that guy if you want to.

 

[Stout]

Chris Johnson and Dwight Freeney?

I find it funny that you don't care about usage or actual stat comparisons of performance vs the run. Obviously you have your mind made up, and regardless of the statistics which are presented, you would prefer to go off your hunches and feelings. Feel free to be that guy if you want to.

I love how you pretend stats have nothing to do with anything else but the exact statistic in question. There's a reason there are a lot of sayings about how statistics lie--Mark Twain's being the most famous. Yet you steadfastly refuse to accept that and grip that one statistic like it's a life preserver on the Titanic. Feel free to be that guy if you want to.

 

[Chopper0080]

I love how you pretend stats have nothing to do with anything else but the exact statistic in question. There's a reason there are a lot of sayings about how statistics lie--Mark Twain's being the most famous. Yet you steadfastly refuse to accept that and grip that one statistic like it's a life preserver on the Titanic. Feel free to be that guy if you want to.

I love how the most famous quote against the validity of statistics is from a guy who died in 1910. Also, to base an entire argument on statistics is absurd, but even more so is totally discounting them. I have said that even though the 2015 rush defense was statistically better than 2014, if you argue that they were equally effective vs the run, it still doesn't make the argument that Dan Williams was worth the 8 mil that the Raiders paid him. There is no argument to be made that supports that, and that includes your hunch and eyeball assessments during a window of time in 2014.

 

[football karma]

some random perspective:


I beleive that no matter how long you have been in the #2 spot, its just different when you go to the #1 spot --- and there is a learning curve when you are new.

I beleive Keim will get better as we move forward in the draft. I also think that the longer a coach and GM are together, the better the scouting department recognizes the skill sets that the coach wants

I hope he gets better: the team has to start hitting on offensive linemen in the draft

 

[oaken1]

stats can say whatever you want them to...one thing is undeniable..... be it run defense or pass defense,...having a big man in the middle who demands a double team...or maybe even triple team at times....frees up your MLB to make plays...........

we do not currently have that big guy,...unless it is Peters.



IMO, for our defense,...we desperately need THREE guys that command a double team,...that is how a 3-4 was designed to run in the first place