Hollinger's analysis:
Is Deandre Ayton better than Jusuf Nurkić?
For the specific timeline of the Suns, perhaps not. You have to separate whatever Ayton might do in Portland from what he was giving the Suns. Ayton is very talented, but also was frustrating. He had a very underwhelming 2022-23 season and seemed unhappy in Phoenix. Ironically, both Ayton and Nurkić were inconsistent enough that it had fans wondering if their backups were better. Well, Nurkic’s backup in Phoenix is now, once again,
Drew Eubanks.
My numbers project Nurkić better than Ayton this season, but it’s not because of some sky-high belief in Nurk. The bigger factor is Ayton’s major performance drop-off last season when he seemed notably half-hearted, even in playoff games. Nurkić is a better passer off short rolls, though, which could be more helpful given how Phoenix will likely play this season.
I have a feeling the change of scenery will help Ayton quite a bit because he’ll see the ball so much more. I’ve always felt he could be a volume scorer with his face-up game in the right situation. We’ll see if I’m right, because Portland will need him to get buckets on its gutted roster. One more thing: Ayton is four years younger. Even if you think Nurkić-Ayton is a wash this season, it likely won’t be by 2025-26 when both players are still under contract.
However, the bigger win for Phoenix was the mere act of splitting Ayton’s deal into three smaller contracts with Nurkić, Allen and Little. Because other teams were reluctant to take on Ayton’s deal, and Phoenix’s other contracts are all minimum or near-minimum deals, the Suns had near-zero flexibility for in-season trades prior to this move.
Between this trade and a couple of creative shenanigans with future pick swaps that yielded extra second-round picks, the Suns can now work on the trade market if needed, using three middle-class contracts that could potentially be part of a salary match. Additionally, Phoenix’s depth situation was iffy enough that grabbing a fringe starter in Allen is kind of a big deal, especially for them to get through the regular season with a decent seed.
Keep an eye on Little, too. It was somewhat surprising to see the oft-injured 23-year-old thrown in while he’s on the first season of a four-year, $30 million extension. Portland didn’t need to include his salary to complete the deal, although it would have kept them in the tax pending a Holiday move, and possibly complicated matters for next summer.
Now, Phoenix has 17 players and must cut two of them. I’m guessing the recently arrived Johnson and the non-guaranteed Ish Wainwright are the two, but if I were
Jordan Goodwin or
Bol Bol, I’d make sure I have a good training camp and stay late after practice every day. A follow-up trade to drop one of their surplus seconds on another team to take Johnson’s $2.8 million salary would save the Suns several million dollars in tax payments, so keep an eye on that.
Phoenix also earned a $1.1 million trade exception by including Camara, a promising late second-rounder who unfortunately needed to be in the deal for the salary match to work. Don’t spend it all in one place, fellas. Camara is a developmental 4, but goes to a great situation for him in Portland. He might play right away.